M e t h o d o l o g i c a l c r i t i c o f
“ R e s i s t i n g t h e P r o t e c t i o n i s t
Te m p t a t i o n ”
b y H e l e n M i l n e r
D e s i g n i n g S o c i a l I n q u i r y
A y o u n g K a n g ( 3 2 0 0 1 )
( 1 ) R e s t a t e t h e a u t h o r ’ s m a j o r r e -
s e a r c h q u e s t i o n a n d t h e o r i e s ( o r
h y p o t h e s e s ) i n “ i f , t h e n ” t y p e o f
g e n e r a l i z a t i o n
Background: Int ’ l Economy in the 70s
Recession, o i l shocks, Trading B loc (EC) , Increasing Non-tar iff barr iers , Vio lat ion of GATT regulat ions, Protect ion for both import and export in -dustr ies
Mi lner ins ists: However, the int ’ l system remained re la -t ive ly l ibera l .
Puzzle: why major industrial sectors of the advanced industrial states stayed open despite the economic and po -litical troubles of the 1970s?
Hypothesis: I f international economic interdepen-dence increases,
i t aff ects national preferences and trade pol icies to maintain a l iberal trade system by infl uencing the pref -erences of industr ies and fi rms.
Independent Variable Dependent Variable
Economic interdepen-dence
(Export dependence ,multinationality, and Foreign investment)
Preferences for protection-ism at the level of the firms and industries
High interdependence Preference for anti-pro-tectionism
( 2 ) A s s e s s t h e d e fi n i t i o n s t h e a u t h o r h a d a d o p t e d f o r h i s i n d e p e n d e n t a n d d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a n d w h e t h e r t h e y a r e a d e q u a t e l y u s e d .
Protectionism•Govt ’s po l icy restr ic ts or restra ins in ternat iona l t rade, o ften done wi th the in tent o f protect ing loca l bus inesses and jobs f rom fore ign compet i -t ion .
• Broad meaning, RTA–new face of protec -t ionism
•In this paper, narrow meaning than general defi nit ion without defi ning it . .
Economic inter-dependence •a broader concept in the form of
exports, imports, multinational pro -
duction, and global intra-fi rm trade.• While France was more trade de-
pendent within the EC, the US was more dependent on multinational fi rms.
Both countries showed similar levels of integration into the international economy
Export depen-denceCertain level of export dependence accelerates open trade regime, how-ever this doesn’t mean that higher ex-port dependence leads pol ic ies to -wards freer trade.
( 3 ) E v a l u a t e t h e p r o c e d u r e s u s e d
i n m e a s u r i n g v a r i a b l e s a n d t h e
t e s t s d e v i s e d t o s h o w c a u s a l r e l a -
t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e a u t h o r ' s I V s
a n d D V ( h e r e I w a n t y o u t o c r i t i q u e
t h e a u t h o r ' s s e l e c t i o n o f t h e
c a s e s . ) W h e r e t h e a u t h o r ’ s m e t h o d
h a s s h o r t c o m i n g s , s h o w h o w i t
m i g h t h a v e b e e n i m p r o v e d .
Sample Selection•18 d iff erent industr ies under the h ighest lev -
e ls o f import compet i t ion and economic d iffi -
cu l t ies
① contro l l ing omit ted var iab le b ias
•IVs : Economic interdependence
(Export dependence, mul t inat iona l i ty, and
Fore ign investment)
• Omit ted IV: import compet i t ion
- h igh import compet i t ion Preferences for
P rotect ion ism (DV)
- no Mul t i co l l inear i ty w i th other IVs
②L i m i t e d n u m b e r o f s a m p l e s ( # < 2 0 )
“For intermediate cases, prefer-
ences were complex as they
wanted limited or selective protec-
tion”
samples can vary widely on the level of variable (Comparison between domestic
fi rms and MNCs at the highest lev-
els of import competition)
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