M e t h o d o l o g i c a l c r i t i c o f

“ R e s i s t i n g t h e P r o t e c t i o n i s t

Te m p t a t i o n ”

b y H e l e n M i l n e r

D e s i g n i n g S o c i a l I n q u i r y

A y o u n g K a n g ( 3 2 0 0 1 )

( 1 ) R e s t a t e t h e a u t h o r ’ s m a j o r r e -

s e a r c h q u e s t i o n a n d t h e o r i e s ( o r

h y p o t h e s e s ) i n “ i f , t h e n ” t y p e o f

g e n e r a l i z a t i o n

Background: Int ’ l Economy in the 70s

Recession, o i l shocks, Trading B loc (EC) , Increasing Non-tar iff barr iers , Vio lat ion of GATT regulat ions, Protect ion for both import and export in -dustr ies

Mi lner ins ists: However, the int ’ l system remained re la -t ive ly l ibera l .

Puzzle: why major industrial sectors of the advanced industrial states stayed open despite the economic and po -litical troubles of the 1970s?

Hypothesis: I f international economic interdepen-dence increases,

i t aff ects national preferences and trade pol icies to maintain a l iberal trade system by infl uencing the pref -erences of industr ies and fi rms.

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Economic interdepen-dence

(Export dependence ,multinationality, and Foreign investment)

Preferences for protection-ism at the level of the firms and industries

High interdependence Preference for anti-pro-tectionism

( 2 ) A s s e s s t h e d e fi n i t i o n s t h e a u t h o r h a d a d o p t e d f o r h i s i n d e p e n d e n t a n d d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a n d w h e t h e r t h e y a r e a d e q u a t e l y u s e d .

Protectionism•Govt ’s po l icy restr ic ts or restra ins in ternat iona l t rade, o ften done wi th the in tent o f protect ing loca l bus inesses and jobs f rom fore ign compet i -t ion .

• Broad meaning, RTA–new face of protec -t ionism

•In this paper, narrow meaning than general defi nit ion without defi ning it . .

Economic inter-dependence •a broader concept in the form of

exports, imports, multinational pro -

duction, and global intra-fi rm trade.• While France was more trade de-

pendent within the EC, the US was more dependent on multinational fi rms.

Both countries showed similar levels of integration into the international economy

Export depen-denceCertain level of export dependence accelerates open trade regime, how-ever this doesn’t mean that higher ex-port dependence leads pol ic ies to -wards freer trade.

( 3 ) E v a l u a t e t h e p r o c e d u r e s u s e d

i n m e a s u r i n g v a r i a b l e s a n d t h e

t e s t s d e v i s e d t o s h o w c a u s a l r e l a -

t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n   t h e a u t h o r ' s   I V s

a n d D V ( h e r e I w a n t y o u t o c r i t i q u e

t h e a u t h o r ' s s e l e c t i o n o f t h e

c a s e s . ) W h e r e t h e a u t h o r ’ s m e t h o d

h a s s h o r t c o m i n g s , s h o w h o w i t

m i g h t h a v e b e e n i m p r o v e d .

Sample Selection•18 d iff erent industr ies under the h ighest lev -

e ls o f import compet i t ion and economic d iffi -

cu l t ies

① contro l l ing omit ted var iab le b ias

•IVs : Economic interdependence

(Export dependence, mul t inat iona l i ty, and

Fore ign investment)

• Omit ted IV: import compet i t ion

- h igh import compet i t ion Preferences for

P rotect ion ism (DV)

- no Mul t i co l l inear i ty w i th other IVs

②L i m i t e d n u m b e r o f s a m p l e s ( # < 2 0 )

“For intermediate cases, prefer-

ences were complex as they

wanted limited or selective protec-

tion”

samples can vary widely on the level of variable (Comparison between domestic

fi rms and MNCs at the highest lev-

els of import competition)