LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities
Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov
ESRL / GSD Verification SummitSeptember 2011
Updated Sep 7, 2011
LAPS MotivationHigh Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min)
Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide•Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS•State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures•International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst.•Global analysis – used by SOS
Wide variety of data sources:
OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 2
Data Ingest
Intermediatedata files
Classic GSI
Data
STMAS-3D
Trans
Trans
Model prep
WRF-ARW MM5 WRF-NMM
EnsembleForecast
ProbabilisticPost
Processing
ErrorCovariance
LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble
System
3http://esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/fab
OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch
Analysis Scheme
Verification
Built-in Verification
Ports with system
Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations
OK Mesonet
ARL / FRD
Global Solar Radiation Analysis
+ Observations
3-Frames at 15-minute
interval
Solar Radiation Analysis Verification
Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.
3 km grid spacing 1 km grid spacing
Solar Radiation Web Page
Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation
on time scales <= 15min
Mean Analyzed / Forecast
Mean Observed
RMS differences
Solar Radiation Analysis Verification
HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.
Clearer Days
Solar Radiation Analysis Verification
HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.
Partly Cloudy Days
Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations
Cloud Cover Analysis Matching 1-3 hour Solar Radiation Forecast
Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification
HMT Forecast (00-09 hours)~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.
Solar Radiation Forecast VerificationHWT Forecast (00-06 hours)
LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations.
LAPS
STMAS
HRRR
LAPS
STMAS
HRRR
Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page
Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as
well as ensemble forecasts.
3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds.
BIAS
ETS
CloudSat Verification of LAPS Cloud Analysis
LAPS
CloudSat
16 June 2002
3-hr Forecast, Lin μPhysAnalysis
Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time
Bias & ETS June 16 2002Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations
in Microphysics (developed squall line case) ETS values are highest at early times
due to hot-start
Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)
Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)
STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor)
CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR
Forecast at 2011-09-04 00Z
ETS Bias
NE Corridor Domain
That’s the latest – Questions?
2hr HOT FcstAnalysis 2hr NO-HOT Fcst
850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity
16 June 2002
Why most of the metadata are N/A?
Top Related