LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities
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LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities
Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov
ESRL / GSD Verification SummitSeptember 2011
Updated Sep 7, 2011
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LAPS MotivationHigh Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min)
Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide•Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS•State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures•International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst.•Global analysis – used by SOS
Wide variety of data sources:
OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 2
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Data Ingest
Intermediatedata files
Classic GSI
Data
STMAS-3D
Trans
Trans
Model prep
WRF-ARW MM5 WRF-NMM
EnsembleForecast
ProbabilisticPost
Processing
ErrorCovariance
LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble
System
3http://esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/fab
OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch
Analysis Scheme
Verification
Built-in Verification
Ports with system
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Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations
OK Mesonet
ARL / FRD
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Global Solar Radiation Analysis
+ Observations
3-Frames at 15-minute
interval
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Solar Radiation Analysis Verification
Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.
3 km grid spacing 1 km grid spacing
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Solar Radiation Web Page
Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation
on time scales <= 15min
Mean Analyzed / Forecast
Mean Observed
RMS differences
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Solar Radiation Analysis Verification
HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.
Clearer Days
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Solar Radiation Analysis Verification
HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.
Partly Cloudy Days
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Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations
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Cloud Cover Analysis Matching 1-3 hour Solar Radiation Forecast
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Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification
HMT Forecast (00-09 hours)~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.
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Solar Radiation Forecast VerificationHWT Forecast (00-06 hours)
LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations.
LAPS
STMAS
HRRR
LAPS
STMAS
HRRR
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Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page
Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as
well as ensemble forecasts.
3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds.
BIAS
ETS
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CloudSat Verification of LAPS Cloud Analysis
LAPS
CloudSat
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16 June 2002
3-hr Forecast, Lin μPhysAnalysis
Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time
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Bias & ETS June 16 2002Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations
in Microphysics (developed squall line case) ETS values are highest at early times
due to hot-start
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Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)
Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor)
STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor)
CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR
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Forecast at 2011-09-04 00Z
ETS Bias
NE Corridor Domain
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That’s the latest – Questions?
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2hr HOT FcstAnalysis 2hr NO-HOT Fcst
850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity
16 June 2002
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Why most of the metadata are N/A?