The Tragedy of the Commons www.garretthardinsociety.org Garret
Harding (1969) Science 162 Cartoon The Rusty Oracle
Slide 3
Sustainable Development Development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs Brundtland Commission (1987) What did they
mean? Do you agree? How can scientists & engineers help?
Slide 4
The Triple Bottom Line Adapted from:
www.peopleandplanetandprofit.com
Slide 5
What do future generations NEED? Development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs Water Food Clothing Shelter
Health Security Waste Assimilation Travel Entertainment
Slide 6
Environment Which of our needs do we get from the Earth (the
environment)? Original logo, spaceship earth, EPCOT Center
Slide 7
CEE plays an important role Water Food Clothing Shelter Health
Security Waste Assimilation Travel Entertainment Environmental
& Water Resources Env, WR & Transportation Trans &
Structural Struc, Geotechnical Env, WR & Trans All Env & WR
Trans & Struc Struc, Geotechnical, . NeedsCivil
Engineering
Slide 8
Sustainability Pillars Population Environment Life Style
Technology www.uwayhelps.org/pillars
Slide 9
Sustainability Pillars Why does Sustainability depend on these
Pillars? How do the Pillars interact?
Slide 10
Population | Technology | Life Style | Earth
Slide 11
Small Population Earth - big relative to Population Natural
systems can meet the needs of small population. How? Wide Range of
Technologies OK Efficient to Wasteful Wide Range of Life Styles OK
Frugal to Wasteful Water, food, wood, stone, fabrics, fossil fuels,
Waste assimilation
Slide 12
Frugal Life Style Earth - big relative to Life Style People
live simply, minimizing their environmental impact. How? Wide Range
of Populations OK Small to Moderately Large Wide Range of
Technologies OK Efficient to Moderately Wasteful Vegetarianism,
little travel, small homes,
Slide 13
Green Technologies Earth - big relative to Technology Efficient
Technologies meet our needs with minimum environmental impact. How?
Wide Range of Populations OK Small to Moderately Large Wide Range
of Life Styles OK Efficient to Moderately Wasteful Renewable
energy, fuel efficient travel, high efficiency homes, Low impact
farming
Slide 14
What Controls the Pillars? All Three Culture Population Life
Style Technology Inventors
Slide 15
What Controls the Pillars? All Three Culture Religion /
Philosophy Education Government Policy Population Health Care
Family Planning Financial Well Being Life Style Opportunity
Technology Inventors Venture Capitalists R & D Infrastructure
Company Policy Government Policy
Slide 16
How are we doing on Population?
Slide 17
How Many is Too Many? www.bubblews.com
Slide 18
Population Density en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/7/2014
Slide 19
Light Map
cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg,
accessed 1/8/2015 Light Map matches density and ???? Technology,
Finances, Security?
Slide 20
Fertility
cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg,
accessed 1/8/2015 Children average women has over lifetime Why does
fertility tend to be low in more developed places?
Population Distribution Pyramid ruled since we first organized
into societies. The Economist (2014) The World Reshaped How does
this effect sustainability?
Slide 24
Population Projections (11 B?) Nigeria is #1: 184 M now to 914
M in 2100. India is 2 nd. US is 8 th : 316 462 M. Africa is 1.1 B
now, will go to 4.2 B. Has 8 of top 10. China declines from 1.4 1.1
B. UW research: World population could be nearly 11 billion by 2100
(2013), www.washington.edu
Slide 25
Megacities
cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg,
accessed 1/8/2015 Cities over 5 M in US and China?US = 9China = 76
US projected to increase 150 M next 85 years, China projected to
decrease 300 M
Slide 26
How Many is Too Many? World Carrying Capacity 100 Million? 1
Billion? 10 Billion? 100 Billion? Estimated often since the 1600s
96 Estimates, from 1 to 10 21 B! 50 from 1 to 10 B 33 from 10 to 80
B 13 > 80 B! Three estimates over 10 9 B assumed: Body heat can
be removed (dissipated) Human food based is algae ALL carbon on
Earth is people or algae Jeroen et al. (2004) Reconsidering the
Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction,
BioScience, 54(3).
Slide 27
Limiting Factors Land / Food (71) Carbon (4) Primary Production
(4) Nonrenewable Resources (3) Energy (3) Multiple Factors (2)
Forest Products (1) Heat Removal (1) Water Availability (1) Most
limiting? Fresh water Forest products Nonrenewable products, e.g.
fertilizer Jeroen et al. (2004) Reconsidering the Limits to World
Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction, BioScience,
54(3).
Slide 28
*Some of this is fossil water Oceans 97.2 % Ice Caps/Glaciers 2
% ffffffffffffff Groundwater* 0.78 % fffffff Soil Moisture 0.013 %
fffff Atmosphere 0.0007 fffff Rivers & Streams 0.0002 % fffffff
Biosphere 0.0001 % Population Limit Water? Where is the water?
blog.timesunion.comwww.umac.org
Slide 29
Population Limit Water? Total Fresh Water on Earth ~ 37.5 M km
3 Minimum water consumption ~ 50 L/person/d* (drink, cook &
hygiene) = 5.0E-11 km 3 /p/d Maximum Population? Water for Africa
Institute (2014) Water Consumption,
www.water-for-africa.org/en/water-consumption.html, accessed
1/7/2014 37,500,000 / 5.0E-11 = 7.6E20
Slide 30
Why is 7.6E20 too many? >2/3 of the freshwater is
unavailable 50 l/person/d does not include agriculture, industry,
Water is needed for other species Can we treat the wastewater? Can
environment assimilate it? Other limitations?
Slide 31
Water Assessment In 2006, 6 B people used ~ 30% of accessible
renewable water Accessible water not distributed well South
America: 5 % population & 26 % of runoff Asia: 60 % population
& 36 % of runoff 1 B without good access to water We are using
fossil water Might reach 70% by 2025. Then what? What about other
species? www.globalchange.umich.edu (2006) Human Appropriation of
the World's Fresh Water Supply
Slide 32
Technological Solutions? Get more freshwater Deeper wells More
Dams A Frac process for water Melt ice caps More efficient homes
and businesses More efficient industry Drought resistant crops Turn
salt water into fresh Mine asteroids
Slide 33
Population Limit - Land Total Earth Land Area 150 M km 2 (~30
%) Land needed per person 89 kft 2 /person = 0.00827 km 2 /person
Maximum Population? 150,000,000 / 0.00823 = 18 B pureenergies.com,
accessed 1/8/2015
Slide 34
Why is 18 B too high? Some land is not arable Land needed for
industry How do we make the solar panels? Home, TV, TV Programs,
Fridge, No room for other species How do we treat waste? Other
limitations?
Slide 35
Agricultural Land - Assessment Thomas Robert Malthus (1766
1834) An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 1826 He assumed
Population will increase geometrically Food Production will
increase arithmetically Predicted that population would outstrip
food supply in less than a century What happened? Can Africa join
green revolution? Financial Capitalists Invest in Agriculture Can
agricultural technology continue to improve? The Green Revolution
(Technology!) Fertilizer, Tractors, Hybrid Seeds
Slide 36
Agricultural Land - Assessment Assumptions Potential arable
land - 21,375,000 km 2 Potential agricultural productivity -
8,923E12 kcal/yr World Carrying Capacity 7.34 B At each countrys
1996 food consumption level 8.97 B At world country-average 4.01 B
At North American consumption rate Shunji Murai, S. (1996) Global
environment and population carrying capacity, The UNU global
environmental Forum IV, Edited by Juha I. Uitto and Akiko Ono, The
United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. We are supporting our food
production with fossil fuel
Slide 37
Population Limit Net Primary Production? 177,500 TW/year
Reflected: 50,000 TW/year Space Dust: 1.5E8 kg/yr Atmosphere: 3.4E7
kg/yr Space dust accumulation: 66 cm over 4.5 B years Morton, SA.,
and M. Sharma, (2009) Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining
World Carrying Capacity, ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX
127,500 TW/yr available for plants Earth Energy Balance
Slide 38
Population Limit Net Primary Production? Primary Productivity
Plants using suns energy to grow (Photosynthesis) Net Primary
Productivity, NPP Plant products available to other entities
Examples? What do we use? NPP 2.9E13 kg/yr Carbon We use ~ 41 % of
NPP We are only one of 5-10 M species on Earth! A human caused
major extinction event is occurring What happens as we use more
photovoltaic? Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009) Thermodynamic
Considerations in Determining World Carrying Capacity, ASEE Annual
Conference, Arlington, TX
Slide 39
Earth Extinction Events We appear to be in a 6 th. Some call it
Homocene because we appear to be the cause. American Society for
Microbiology (2015) Do Red and Green Make Brown?: Perspectives on
Plastid Acquisitions within Chromalveolates,
ec.asm.org/content/10/7/856/F7.expansion.html, accessed 1/8.
Slide 40
Population Limit Net Primary Production? Human population limit
(P) Assume we need at least 1200 kg /person Carbon Let H NPP =
fraction NPP for humans P = H NPP x 2.9E13 / 1200 P = H NPP x
24,200,000,000 = H NPP x 2.42E10 If H NPP = 41 %, P = 9.9 B If H
NPP = 10 %, P = 2.4 B Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009)
Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining World Carrying
Capacity, ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX
Slide 41
Ecological Footprint Area needed to sustain resource
consumption & waste discharge by given population Global
hectares (gha) of biologically productive area Land for energy,
crops, livestock, forest, fishing grounds, settlements 1 hectare =
2.5 acres 1 acre = 43,560 ft 2 Wackernagel and Rees, Our ecological
footprint; New Society Publications, 1996 &
en.wikipedia.org
Slide 42
candobetter.net Life Style & Technology Ecological
Footprint
Slide 43
Ecological Footprint by Country
Slide 44
US Ecological Footprint If everyone lived like US, it would
take 5 Earths! www.bestfootforward.com
Slide 45
Ecological Footprint & Human Development wwf.panda.orgENO
(217.149.52.103)
Slide 46
Population - Conclusion World Carrying Capacity Between 2 and
10 B? Projected to reach 11 B by 2100 Should governments promote
family planning & Contraception? High World population will
require what changes? Life style (developing countries)
Technology
Slide 47
Life Style Food Shelter Travel Health Care Water
www.twcenter.net McMansion
Slide 48
Meat & Sustainability Forest & Grassland Destruction 40
% of Central American Rainforest destroyed in 40 years Water
Consumption 7,000 liters water 100 grams beef (0.22 lb) 550 liters
one loaf of bread Fossil Fuels Consumption 28 calories fossil fuel
1 calorie of meat protein We make fertilizer from fossil fuels! 3.3
1 calorie grain protein Wastewater from feed lots World Watch
Institute Is Meet Sustainable?, www.worldwatch.org/node/549,
accessed 1/8/2015. ~2.3 times more people can live directly on
grain versus livestock fed on that grain modernfarmer.com
Slide 49
Food & Water ProductUnitEquivalent water in m 3 per unit
MEAT Fresh beefKg15 Fresh lambKg10 Fresh poultryKg6 OTHER Palm
oilKg2 CerealsKg1.5 Citrus fruitsKg1 Puls, roots and tubersKg1
www.unesco.org
Slide 50
China and Pork The Economist (2015) Empire of the Pig Important
part of Chinese culture Festivals, sacrifices, commemorations
Before1949, only ~3 % of protein from meat Chinese Pig consumption
now 39 kg/p/year 500 M swine / year Government pork reserve to
stabilize price 6 kg soy or corn feed to grow 1 kg pork Farmland
consumed worldwide, e.g., 25 m ha of rainforest in Brazil Purchased
Smithfield Foods, large American Firm
Slide 51
World livestock Livestock Million Head Percent change 1990-2012
199020002012 C ATTLE AND B UFFALOES 1,4451,4671,68416.5 P IGS
84985696613.8 P OULTRY 11,78816,07724,075104.2 S HEEP AND G OATS
1,7951,8112,16520.6 Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department
(2014) Sources of Meat, Food and Agricultural Organization, United
Nations, www.fao.org/ag/againfo/themes/en/meat/backgr_sources.html,
accessed 1/8.
Slide 52
Shelter www.nahb.com; www.census.gov & www.eia.doe.gov
& news.bbc.co.uk Roughly 40% of US energy consumption in 2008
used in buildings (~38 quadrillion Btu) US Homes YearPeopleArea, ft
2 19703.141,400 20042.572,330
Slide 53
Buildings Use ~75% of worlds electricity Commercial and
Residential Most are energy wasters US Green Building Council LEEDs
Certification Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design
Slide 54
Travel www.good.is Gallons/Passenger to go 350 miles
www.websophist.com
Slide 55
Travel - Cars www.theautoinsurance.com
Slide 56
Travel Mode & Obesity www.theautoinsurance.com
Slide 57
Bike Transport frank.itlab.us www.randallhyman.com
Slide 58
US Energy Consumption www.eia.doe.gov
Slide 59
Health Care www.pbs.org & www.commonwealthfund.org,
accessed 1/9/2015 2014 Ranking of Health Care 1. United Kingdom 2.
Switzerland 3. Sweden 4. Australia 5. Germany & Netherlands
(tied) 7. New Zealand & Norway (tied) 9. France 10. Canada 11.
United States
Slide 60
Water Consumption www.gopixpic.com
Slide 61
Life Style - Conclusion US lifestyle is the most unsustainable
of large countries What can we do? Simplify Downsize
Reorganize
Slide 62
Technology & CEE Develop Renewable Energy Redesign
Communities Improve Transportation Building Energy Efficiency
Climate Change Adaptation Access More Water Environmental
Protection Pollution Reduction & Treatment Improve
Industry/Agriculture Much of this is about Saving Energy
Slide 63
Energy Consumption upload.wikimedia.org &
www.worldpopulationbalance.org/population_energy US: ~5 %
Population & ~20 % Energy Consumption India: ~17 % Population
& ~4 % Energy Consumption 2003 data from IEA oag.ca.gov
Slide 64
Energy Consumption lamarguerite.files.wordpress.com
Slide 65
US Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009
www.eia.doe.gov Total = 94.6 Quadrillion Btu
Slide 66
Energy Waste in US awesome.good.is
Slide 67
Global Energy Consumption en.wikipedia.org, accessed
1/9/2015
Slide 68
Where did the fossil fuels come from? Most were formed ~300 M
years ago Swamps, bogs & forests Warmer climate Trees, plants,
animals, fish, microorganisms died decomposed buried under mud,
rock, and sand Over millions of years fossil fuels formed Type
depends on animal and plant debris present temperature and pressure
how long buried Still forming today, but at much lower rate
Different Climate ~50 % of Wetlands drained in last 100 years
Significant forest loss and harvesting www.fe.doe.gov Fossil Fuels
are Not RENEWABLE. What does this mean?
Slide 69
Renewable Energy Adapted from www.apsenergyconservation.org
Almost all our energy comes from the sun, sooner or later Seconds
Minutes Hours Days to Weeks Months to Years to Decades Millions of
Years Photovoltaics Direct Solar Heat Wind Hydropower Biomass Coal,
Oil & Natural Gas Renewable No t Renewable Can you
explain?
Slide 70
Global Energy Potential en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/9/2015
1,655 16 = 103 yr
Slide 71
Where are the Reserves? www.worldcoal.org, 2011 (World Coal
Association) www.oilandgasbmps.org
Slide 72
Fossil Fuel Problems Not renewable Climate Change Pollution
Security www.thehindu.com
Slide 73
Human Caused Climate Change CO 2 & other greenhouse gases
US Issues Heat Stroke Storm Intensity Drought Flood
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type_to_Y2004.png
Pollution - Assessment $120 B/year in US Mostly from increased
human deaths from air pollutants from power plants and vehicles ~
20,000 people die prematurely/year Each life valued at $6 million
based on 2000 dollar Pollutants include small soot particles - lung
damage nitrogen oxides - contributes to smog sulfur dioxide -
causes acid rain Wald, M. (2009) Fossil Fuels Hidden Cost Is in
Billions, Study Says, New York Times, October 19, 2009 Hidden Cost
of Fossil Fuel
Slide 76
Mountain top removal (Coal) virginia.sierraclub.org
Security Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela Iraq, N
of Basra: googlesightseeing.com/2005 Burning oil fields
Slide 79
Sustainable Development Current Population/Life
Style/Technology is probably unsustainable in future But we arent
even meeting current needs!
Slide 80
UN Millennium Development Goals Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme
Poverty & Hunger Halve proportion of people whose income is
less than $1 a day (1990-2015) Achieve full & productive
employment & decent work for all, including women & young
people Halve proportion of people who suffer from hunger
(1990-2015) www.unesco.org
Slide 81
Living on less than $2/day en.wikipedia.org, from World Bank
Data, accessed 1/9/2015
Global Hunger
cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg,
accessed 1/8/2015
Slide 84
UN Millennium Development Goals Goal 4: Reduce by two thirds,
between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate ~ 9 M children
die each year < 5 years old Highest rates in sub-Saharan Africa
in 2008, 1 in 7 Of 67 countries with high child mortality rates,
only 10 on track to meet goal www.unesco.org
UN Millennium Development Goals Goal 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability Sustainable development integrated into country
policies and programs (2015) Forest, Biological diversity, Energy
use per $1 GDP, Carbon dioxide, Ozone-depleting CFCs, Proportion of
population using solid fuels Reduce by half proportion of people
without sustainable access to safe drinking water (2015) 1 B people
lack access to safe drinking water, 2.4 B to adequate sanitation
Achieve significant improvement in lives of 100 million slum
dwellers (2020) www.unesco.org
Slide 87
Solid Fuel &Indoor Air Quality www.ourworldindata.org,
accessed 1/10/2015 deaths per 1000 people / year from indoor air
pollution from solid fuel use, 2004
Slide 88
Access to Improved Drinking Water U.N.s 2010 Global Annual
Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) report
Slide 89
Access to Improved Sanitation U.N.s 2010 Global Annual
Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) report
Slide 90
Progress Extreme poverty reduced by half Improved drinking
water for 2.3 billion people Hunger continues to decline, but
additional efforts needed >25 % of worlds population accessed
improved sanitation since 1990, but a billion still resort to open
defecation Major trends that threaten environmental sustainability
continue United Nations (2014) The Millennium Development Goals
Report
Slide 91
Engineering Challenges China, India, >5.5 B people want
better life More competition Fossil Fuels Limited reserves Everyone
wants some Pollution, US 5 % population 20 % consumption US
Solution Quality & Efficiency Renewable Energy Adaptation
Slide 92
Personal Solution Me! 4.8 KW PV system High Efficiency HVAC
Warm in summer Cool in winter Bike commuter Shop with cargo bike
2011 Jetta Diesel Mostly eat vegetarian Backyard compost Recycle
users.rowan.edu/~everett/SusSJ.html
Slide 93
What else can we do? Walk Public Transportation Small House
Resist Consumerism, Live Simply Local Food Clean Energy Inform
Political Process Low Impact Recreation
Slide 94
What can you do as a CE? Environmental Water Resources
Structural Transportation Geotechnical Efficient Buildings Public
Transportation Renewable Energy Environmental Protection Carbon
Sequestration Coastal Protection Flood Control Storm
protection
Slide 95
Planetary Boundaries www.stockholmresilience.org (Pollution)
Extinctions per million species-years Biodiversity Intactness Index
9 planetary boundaries within which humanity can develop &
thrive for generations. Crossing boundaries could generate abrupt
or irreversible environmental changes.