Jess Everett SUSTAINABILITY. The Tragedy of the Commons Garret Harding (1969) Science 162 Cartoon...

Jess Everett SUSTAINABILITY

The Tragedy of the Commons www.garretthardinsociety.org Garret Harding (1969) Science 162 Cartoon The Rusty Oracle

Sustainable Development Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Brundtland Commission (1987) What did they mean? Do you agree? How can scientists & engineers help?

The Triple Bottom Line Adapted from: www.peopleandplanetandprofit.com

What do future generations NEED? Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Water Food Clothing Shelter Health Security Waste Assimilation Travel Entertainment

Environment Which of our needs do we get from the Earth (the environment)? Original logo, spaceship earth, EPCOT Center

CEE plays an important role Water Food Clothing Shelter Health Security Waste Assimilation Travel Entertainment Environmental & Water Resources Env, WR & Transportation Trans & Structural Struc, Geotechnical Env, WR & Trans All Env & WR Trans & Struc Struc, Geotechnical, . NeedsCivil Engineering

Sustainability Pillars Population Environment Life Style Technology www.uwayhelps.org/pillars

Sustainability Pillars Why does Sustainability depend on these Pillars? How do the Pillars interact?

Population | Technology | Life Style | Earth

Small Population Earth - big relative to Population Natural systems can meet the needs of small population. How? Wide Range of Technologies OK Efficient to Wasteful Wide Range of Life Styles OK Frugal to Wasteful Water, food, wood, stone, fabrics, fossil fuels, Waste assimilation

Frugal Life Style Earth - big relative to Life Style People live simply, minimizing their environmental impact. How? Wide Range of Populations OK Small to Moderately Large Wide Range of Technologies OK Efficient to Moderately Wasteful Vegetarianism, little travel, small homes,

Green Technologies Earth - big relative to Technology Efficient Technologies meet our needs with minimum environmental impact. How? Wide Range of Populations OK Small to Moderately Large Wide Range of Life Styles OK Efficient to Moderately Wasteful Renewable energy, fuel efficient travel, high efficiency homes, Low impact farming

What Controls the Pillars? All Three Culture Population Life Style Technology Inventors

What Controls the Pillars? All Three Culture Religion / Philosophy Education Government Policy Population Health Care Family Planning Financial Well Being Life Style Opportunity Technology Inventors Venture Capitalists R & D Infrastructure Company Policy Government Policy

How are we doing on Population?

How Many is Too Many? www.bubblews.com

Population Density en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/7/2014

Light Map cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015 Light Map matches density and ???? Technology, Finances, Security?

Fertility cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015 Children average women has over lifetime Why does fertility tend to be low in more developed places?

Growth Rate www.geographylwc.org.uk, accessed 1/10/2015

Population Projections en.wikipedia.org

Population Distribution Pyramid ruled since we first organized into societies. The Economist (2014) The World Reshaped How does this effect sustainability?

Population Projections (11 B?) Nigeria is #1: 184 M now to 914 M in 2100. India is 2 nd. US is 8 th : 316 462 M. Africa is 1.1 B now, will go to 4.2 B. Has 8 of top 10. China declines from 1.4 1.1 B. UW research: World population could be nearly 11 billion by 2100 (2013), www.washington.edu

Megacities cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015 Cities over 5 M in US and China?US = 9China = 76 US projected to increase 150 M next 85 years, China projected to decrease 300 M

How Many is Too Many? World Carrying Capacity 100 Million? 1 Billion? 10 Billion? 100 Billion? Estimated often since the 1600s 96 Estimates, from 1 to 10 21 B! 50 from 1 to 10 B 33 from 10 to 80 B 13 > 80 B! Three estimates over 10 9 B assumed: Body heat can be removed (dissipated) Human food based is algae ALL carbon on Earth is people or algae Jeroen et al. (2004) Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction, BioScience, 54(3).

Limiting Factors Land / Food (71) Carbon (4) Primary Production (4) Nonrenewable Resources (3) Energy (3) Multiple Factors (2) Forest Products (1) Heat Removal (1) Water Availability (1) Most limiting? Fresh water Forest products Nonrenewable products, e.g. fertilizer Jeroen et al. (2004) Reconsidering the Limits to World Population: Meta-analysis and Meta-prediction, BioScience, 54(3).

*Some of this is fossil water Oceans 97.2 % Ice Caps/Glaciers 2 % ffffffffffffff Groundwater* 0.78 % fffffff Soil Moisture 0.013 % fffff Atmosphere 0.0007 fffff Rivers & Streams 0.0002 % fffffff Biosphere 0.0001 % Population Limit Water? Where is the water? blog.timesunion.comwww.umac.org

Population Limit Water? Total Fresh Water on Earth ~ 37.5 M km 3 Minimum water consumption ~ 50 L/person/d* (drink, cook & hygiene) = 5.0E-11 km 3 /p/d Maximum Population? Water for Africa Institute (2014) Water Consumption, www.water-for-africa.org/en/water-consumption.html, accessed 1/7/2014 37,500,000 / 5.0E-11 = 7.6E20

Why is 7.6E20 too many? >2/3 of the freshwater is unavailable 50 l/person/d does not include agriculture, industry, Water is needed for other species Can we treat the wastewater? Can environment assimilate it? Other limitations?

Water Assessment In 2006, 6 B people used ~ 30% of accessible renewable water Accessible water not distributed well South America: 5 % population & 26 % of runoff Asia: 60 % population & 36 % of runoff 1 B without good access to water We are using fossil water Might reach 70% by 2025. Then what? What about other species? www.globalchange.umich.edu (2006) Human Appropriation of the World's Fresh Water Supply

Technological Solutions? Get more freshwater Deeper wells More Dams A Frac process for water Melt ice caps More efficient homes and businesses More efficient industry Drought resistant crops Turn salt water into fresh Mine asteroids

Population Limit - Land Total Earth Land Area 150 M km 2 (~30 %) Land needed per person 89 kft 2 /person = 0.00827 km 2 /person Maximum Population? 150,000,000 / 0.00823 = 18 B pureenergies.com, accessed 1/8/2015

Why is 18 B too high? Some land is not arable Land needed for industry How do we make the solar panels? Home, TV, TV Programs, Fridge, No room for other species How do we treat waste? Other limitations?

Agricultural Land - Assessment Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 1834) An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 1826 He assumed Population will increase geometrically Food Production will increase arithmetically Predicted that population would outstrip food supply in less than a century What happened? Can Africa join green revolution? Financial Capitalists Invest in Agriculture Can agricultural technology continue to improve? The Green Revolution (Technology!) Fertilizer, Tractors, Hybrid Seeds

Agricultural Land - Assessment Assumptions Potential arable land - 21,375,000 km 2 Potential agricultural productivity - 8,923E12 kcal/yr World Carrying Capacity 7.34 B At each countrys 1996 food consumption level 8.97 B At world country-average 4.01 B At North American consumption rate Shunji Murai, S. (1996) Global environment and population carrying capacity, The UNU global environmental Forum IV, Edited by Juha I. Uitto and Akiko Ono, The United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. We are supporting our food production with fossil fuel

Population Limit Net Primary Production? 177,500 TW/year Reflected: 50,000 TW/year Space Dust: 1.5E8 kg/yr Atmosphere: 3.4E7 kg/yr Space dust accumulation: 66 cm over 4.5 B years Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009) Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining World Carrying Capacity, ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX 127,500 TW/yr available for plants Earth Energy Balance

Population Limit Net Primary Production? Primary Productivity Plants using suns energy to grow (Photosynthesis) Net Primary Productivity, NPP Plant products available to other entities Examples? What do we use? NPP 2.9E13 kg/yr Carbon We use ~ 41 % of NPP We are only one of 5-10 M species on Earth! A human caused major extinction event is occurring What happens as we use more photovoltaic? Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009) Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining World Carrying Capacity, ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX

Earth Extinction Events We appear to be in a 6 th. Some call it Homocene because we appear to be the cause. American Society for Microbiology (2015) Do Red and Green Make Brown?: Perspectives on Plastid Acquisitions within Chromalveolates, ec.asm.org/content/10/7/856/F7.expansion.html, accessed 1/8.

Population Limit Net Primary Production? Human population limit (P) Assume we need at least 1200 kg /person Carbon Let H NPP = fraction NPP for humans P = H NPP x 2.9E13 / 1200 P = H NPP x 24,200,000,000 = H NPP x 2.42E10 If H NPP = 41 %, P = 9.9 B If H NPP = 10 %, P = 2.4 B Morton, SA., and M. Sharma, (2009) Thermodynamic Considerations in Determining World Carrying Capacity, ASEE Annual Conference, Arlington, TX

Ecological Footprint Area needed to sustain resource consumption & waste discharge by given population Global hectares (gha) of biologically productive area Land for energy, crops, livestock, forest, fishing grounds, settlements 1 hectare = 2.5 acres 1 acre = 43,560 ft 2 Wackernagel and Rees, Our ecological footprint; New Society Publications, 1996 & en.wikipedia.org

candobetter.net Life Style & Technology Ecological Footprint

Ecological Footprint by Country

US Ecological Footprint If everyone lived like US, it would take 5 Earths! www.bestfootforward.com

Ecological Footprint & Human Development wwf.panda.orgENO (217.149.52.103)

Population - Conclusion World Carrying Capacity Between 2 and 10 B? Projected to reach 11 B by 2100 Should governments promote family planning & Contraception? High World population will require what changes? Life style (developing countries) Technology

Life Style Food Shelter Travel Health Care Water www.twcenter.net McMansion

Meat & Sustainability Forest & Grassland Destruction 40 % of Central American Rainforest destroyed in 40 years Water Consumption 7,000 liters water 100 grams beef (0.22 lb) 550 liters one loaf of bread Fossil Fuels Consumption 28 calories fossil fuel 1 calorie of meat protein We make fertilizer from fossil fuels! 3.3 1 calorie grain protein Wastewater from feed lots World Watch Institute Is Meet Sustainable?, www.worldwatch.org/node/549, accessed 1/8/2015. ~2.3 times more people can live directly on grain versus livestock fed on that grain modernfarmer.com

Food & Water ProductUnitEquivalent water in m 3 per unit MEAT Fresh beefKg15 Fresh lambKg10 Fresh poultryKg6 OTHER Palm oilKg2 CerealsKg1.5 Citrus fruitsKg1 Puls, roots and tubersKg1 www.unesco.org

China and Pork The Economist (2015) Empire of the Pig Important part of Chinese culture Festivals, sacrifices, commemorations Before1949, only ~3 % of protein from meat Chinese Pig consumption now 39 kg/p/year 500 M swine / year Government pork reserve to stabilize price 6 kg soy or corn feed to grow 1 kg pork Farmland consumed worldwide, e.g., 25 m ha of rainforest in Brazil Purchased Smithfield Foods, large American Firm

World livestock Livestock Million Head Percent change 1990-2012 199020002012 C ATTLE AND B UFFALOES 1,4451,4671,68416.5 P IGS 84985696613.8 P OULTRY 11,78816,07724,075104.2 S HEEP AND G OATS 1,7951,8112,16520.6 Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department (2014) Sources of Meat, Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations, www.fao.org/ag/againfo/themes/en/meat/backgr_sources.html, accessed 1/8.

Shelter www.nahb.com; www.census.gov & www.eia.doe.gov & news.bbc.co.uk Roughly 40% of US energy consumption in 2008 used in buildings (~38 quadrillion Btu) US Homes YearPeopleArea, ft 2 19703.141,400 20042.572,330

Buildings Use ~75% of worlds electricity Commercial and Residential Most are energy wasters US Green Building Council LEEDs Certification Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design

Travel www.good.is Gallons/Passenger to go 350 miles www.websophist.com

Travel - Cars www.theautoinsurance.com

Travel Mode & Obesity www.theautoinsurance.com

Bike Transport frank.itlab.us www.randallhyman.com

US Energy Consumption www.eia.doe.gov

Health Care www.pbs.org & www.commonwealthfund.org, accessed 1/9/2015 2014 Ranking of Health Care 1. United Kingdom 2. Switzerland 3. Sweden 4. Australia 5. Germany & Netherlands (tied) 7. New Zealand & Norway (tied) 9. France 10. Canada 11. United States

Water Consumption www.gopixpic.com

Life Style - Conclusion US lifestyle is the most unsustainable of large countries What can we do? Simplify Downsize Reorganize

Technology & CEE Develop Renewable Energy Redesign Communities Improve Transportation Building Energy Efficiency Climate Change Adaptation Access More Water Environmental Protection Pollution Reduction & Treatment Improve Industry/Agriculture Much of this is about Saving Energy

Energy Consumption upload.wikimedia.org & www.worldpopulationbalance.org/population_energy US: ~5 % Population & ~20 % Energy Consumption India: ~17 % Population & ~4 % Energy Consumption 2003 data from IEA oag.ca.gov

Energy Consumption lamarguerite.files.wordpress.com

US Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009 www.eia.doe.gov Total = 94.6 Quadrillion Btu

Energy Waste in US awesome.good.is

Global Energy Consumption en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/9/2015

Where did the fossil fuels come from? Most were formed ~300 M years ago Swamps, bogs & forests Warmer climate Trees, plants, animals, fish, microorganisms died decomposed buried under mud, rock, and sand Over millions of years fossil fuels formed Type depends on animal and plant debris present temperature and pressure how long buried Still forming today, but at much lower rate Different Climate ~50 % of Wetlands drained in last 100 years Significant forest loss and harvesting www.fe.doe.gov Fossil Fuels are Not RENEWABLE. What does this mean?

Renewable Energy Adapted from www.apsenergyconservation.org Almost all our energy comes from the sun, sooner or later Seconds Minutes Hours Days to Weeks Months to Years to Decades Millions of Years Photovoltaics Direct Solar Heat Wind Hydropower Biomass Coal, Oil & Natural Gas Renewable No t Renewable Can you explain?

Global Energy Potential en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/9/2015 1,655 16 = 103 yr

Where are the Reserves? www.worldcoal.org, 2011 (World Coal Association) www.oilandgasbmps.org

Fossil Fuel Problems Not renewable Climate Change Pollution Security www.thehindu.com

Human Caused Climate Change CO 2 & other greenhouse gases US Issues Heat Stroke Storm Intensity Drought Flood en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type_to_Y2004.png

Pollution Smog, Particles, Acid Rain, Ozone Depletion, Toxins Mexico city:www.pollutionissues.com/Ve-Z/Vehicular-Pollution.html

Pollution - Assessment $120 B/year in US Mostly from increased human deaths from air pollutants from power plants and vehicles ~ 20,000 people die prematurely/year Each life valued at $6 million based on 2000 dollar Pollutants include small soot particles - lung damage nitrogen oxides - contributes to smog sulfur dioxide - causes acid rain Wald, M. (2009) Fossil Fuels Hidden Cost Is in Billions, Study Says, New York Times, October 19, 2009 Hidden Cost of Fossil Fuel

Mountain top removal (Coal) virginia.sierraclub.org

Spills www.oilism.com/oil/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/oilspill2.jpg www.nytimes.com 6/14/2010

Security Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Venezuela Iraq, N of Basra: googlesightseeing.com/2005 Burning oil fields

Sustainable Development Current Population/Life Style/Technology is probably unsustainable in future But we arent even meeting current needs!

UN Millennium Development Goals Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty & Hunger Halve proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day (1990-2015) Achieve full & productive employment & decent work for all, including women & young people Halve proportion of people who suffer from hunger (1990-2015) www.unesco.org

Living on less than $2/day en.wikipedia.org, from World Bank Data, accessed 1/9/2015

Undernourished Populations en.wikipedia.org, accessed 1/9/2015

Global Hunger cdn1.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/663570/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.0.jpg, accessed 1/8/2015

UN Millennium Development Goals Goal 4: Reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate ~ 9 M children die each year < 5 years old Highest rates in sub-Saharan Africa in 2008, 1 in 7 Of 67 countries with high child mortality rates, only 10 on track to meet goal www.unesco.org

Under-5 Child Mortality gamapserver.who.int, accessed 1/9/2015

UN Millennium Development Goals Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Sustainable development integrated into country policies and programs (2015) Forest, Biological diversity, Energy use per $1 GDP, Carbon dioxide, Ozone-depleting CFCs, Proportion of population using solid fuels Reduce by half proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water (2015) 1 B people lack access to safe drinking water, 2.4 B to adequate sanitation Achieve significant improvement in lives of 100 million slum dwellers (2020) www.unesco.org

Solid Fuel &Indoor Air Quality www.ourworldindata.org, accessed 1/10/2015 deaths per 1000 people / year from indoor air pollution from solid fuel use, 2004

Access to Improved Drinking Water U.N.s 2010 Global Annual Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) report

Access to Improved Sanitation U.N.s 2010 Global Annual Assessment of Sanitation and Drinking-Water (GLAAS) report

Progress Extreme poverty reduced by half Improved drinking water for 2.3 billion people Hunger continues to decline, but additional efforts needed >25 % of worlds population accessed improved sanitation since 1990, but a billion still resort to open defecation Major trends that threaten environmental sustainability continue United Nations (2014) The Millennium Development Goals Report

Engineering Challenges China, India, >5.5 B people want better life More competition Fossil Fuels Limited reserves Everyone wants some Pollution, US 5 % population 20 % consumption US Solution Quality & Efficiency Renewable Energy Adaptation

Personal Solution Me! 4.8 KW PV system High Efficiency HVAC Warm in summer Cool in winter Bike commuter Shop with cargo bike 2011 Jetta Diesel Mostly eat vegetarian Backyard compost Recycle users.rowan.edu/~everett/SusSJ.html

What else can we do? Walk Public Transportation Small House Resist Consumerism, Live Simply Local Food Clean Energy Inform Political Process Low Impact Recreation

What can you do as a CE? Environmental Water Resources Structural Transportation Geotechnical Efficient Buildings Public Transportation Renewable Energy Environmental Protection Carbon Sequestration Coastal Protection Flood Control Storm protection

Planetary Boundaries www.stockholmresilience.org (Pollution) Extinctions per million species-years Biodiversity Intactness Index 9 planetary boundaries within which humanity can develop & thrive for generations. Crossing boundaries could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes.

Jess Everett SUSTAINABILITY. The Tragedy of the Commons Garret Harding (1969) Science 162 Cartoon...

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