Historical CVP and SWP Salvage and OCAP Loss Estimates
Chinook Salmon, Steelhead Rainbow Trout, and Striped Bass Project Impacts in the southern Delta
DeltaKeeper
prepared by
Dan B. Odenweller
CVP and SWP Annual Exports
• CVP from 1957 to 2002 (Water Year)
• SWP from 1968 to 2002 (Water Year)
• 8500cfs Level of Operation could add up to 1Million Acre/Feet of Additional Exports.
CVP and SWP Exports (1957-2002)
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
319
9519
9719
9920
0120
03
Water Year
Acr
e F
ee
t
CVP
SWP
Total
10 11 12 1 2 34 5 6 7
8 9
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Ave
rag
e E
xp
ort
s
Month (Water Year)
Dec
ade
CVP Average Monthly Exports by Decade
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
10 1112 1
2 34
5 67
89
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Ave
rag
e E
xp
ort
s
Month (Water Year)
Dec
ade
SWP Average Monthly Exports by Decade
1957-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
CHINOOK SALMON
USBR (CVP)
• CVP data from 1957 to 2002 (Water Year)
• Note heavy CVP salvage in the 1957 to 1967 period (pre-SWP), but continuing to 1976 (1976-77 drought)
CDWR (SWP)
• SWP data from 1968 to 2002 (Water Year)
• Note the peak salvage in 1986, a wet year.
CS Salvage by Water Year
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
319
9519
9719
9920
0120
03
Water Year
Sal
vag
e CVP
SWP
Total
Chinook Salmon Monthly Mean Salvage(CVP - 46 Years, SWP - 35 Years)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Mea
n M
onth
ly S
alva
ge
CVP (1957-02)
SWP (1968-02)
STEELHEAD RAINBOW TROUT
USBR (CVP)
• CVP data from 1979 to 2002 (Water Year)
• Identification prior to 1979 considered unreliable
CDWR (SWP)
• SWP data from 1968 to 2002 (Water Year)
• Note the peak in 1982.
STH Salvage by Water Year
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
319
9519
9719
9920
0120
03
Water Year
Sal
vag
e CVP
SWP
Total
Monthly Mean Steelhead Salvage(CVP 1979-02 - SWP 1968-02)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Ste
elhe
ad S
alva
ge
CVP
SWP
CS and STH Catch per Unit Effort(Salvage per Acre Foot)
• Data is on a Water Year Basis
• Expressed as Fish per Acre-Foot
Chinook Salmon Salvage CPUE
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
319
9519
9719
9920
01
Water Year
SA
LV
AG
E C
PU
E
CVP CPUE
SWP CPUE
Steelhead CPUE
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.008
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
319
9519
9719
9920
01
Year
CP
UE CVP CPUE
SWP CPUE
Chinook Salmon OCAP Loss per Unit Effort(OCAP Incidental Take per Acre Foot)
• Again, on a Water Year Basis
• Expressed as Fish per Acre Foot
USBR (CVP)
• CVP - All Years Calculated with 0.15 Pre-screen Loss
• CVP - All Years Calculated with 0.25 Screen Loss
CDWR (CVP)
• SWP - 1968 to 1971 Calculated with 0.15 Pre-screen Loss
• SWP - 1972 to Date Calculated with 0.75 Pre-Screen Loss
• SWP - All Years Calculated with 0.25 Screen Loss
THE DIRECT LOSS CALCULATION MODEL
Methodology taken directly from the OCAP Biological Assessment and Biological Opinion.
CVP assumes a 0.15 Pre-Screen Loss and a 0.25 Screen Loss factor for all years.
SWP assumes a 0.15 Pre-Screen Loss and a 0.25 Screen Loss factor for 1968 to 1971 (no CCFB); and
then assumes a 0.75 Pre-Screen Loss factor for 1972 to present, to account for CCFB losses.
Direct Loss Calculation in the south Delta - 2002/2003
GRAND CVP -TFPF (USBR) SWP - JES Delta FPF (DWR) TOTAL
Loss Loss Loss Loss LOSSUnmarked Marked Unmarked Marked Unmarked Marked Unmarked Marked
Count
Count Duration
Count Interval
Expanded Count 10000 0 10000 0
Screen Loss 0.250 3333 0 0.250 3333 0 6667
Arrive at Screens 13333 0 13333 0
Pre Screen Loss 0.150 2353 0 0.750 40000 0 42353
Arrive at Facility 15686 0 53333 0
CHT&R Loss 0.020 200 0 0.020 200 0 400
Released Alive 9800 0 9800 0
Loss Total 5886 0 43533 0 49420Loss (OCAP Incidental Take) 5886 43533 49420Salvage 10000 10000 20000Take (Arrive at the Facilities) 15686 53333 69020
Chinook Salmon OCAP Loss
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
319
9519
9719
9920
01
WATER YEAR
OC
AP
LO
SS
CP
UE
(F
ish
/Acr
e-F
oo
t)
CVP
SWP
Calculated CS OCAP Loss (CVP-SWP)
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
250000019
57
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
199
3
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Water Year
Nu
mb
er CVP
SWP
Total
The Striped Bass Dilemma
• The indicator species for the Estuary in SWRCB D1379 and D 1485.
• Specifically targeted for “doubling” in the CVPIA (PL 102-575). To date, no consideration for striped bass, or for sturgeon, American shad, steelhead, and other anadromous fishes as required by statute.
• Economically important commercial (until 1935) and sport fish, introduced into the Estuary in 1879 from the East coast.
The Striped Bass Index
• Data collected by DFG since 1958, with a few exceptions.
• Decline has been continuous, “goals” were:– SBI = 120 “Historical Levels” - circa D 1379
– SBI = 65 “Recent Historical Levels” - circa D 1485
– SBI = >10 “Post 1976-77 Drought Levels” - circa D 1681
– SBI = <10 Since 1995, coincident with CalFed actions described earlier in the workshops, for WRCS and DS.
• How is this Public Trust Resource (or Beneficial Use) receiving “due process” under the present scheme?
Striped Bass Index(Linear Plot)
y = -26.911Ln(x) + 114.16
R2 = 0.414
y = -1.8964x + 80.228
R2 = 0.5823
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
Str
ipe
d B
ass
In
de
xSB YOY
Log. (SB YOY)
Linear (SB YOY)
Striped Bass South Delta Salvage
• CVP and SWP fish protective facilities have recorded fish salvage since they began operations.
• Striped bass were one of the key species which the fish facilities were developed for.
• CVP records 1958 to date (1991-1996 gap is in my data set).
• SWP records 1968 to date (1991-1996 gap is in my data set).
Striped Bass Salvage
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
4500000019
58
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
Nu
mb
er CVP
SWP
Total
SBI vs. SB Salvage (CVP+SWP)
y = 182343x + 5E+06
R2 = 0.3146
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
SBI
Sal
vag
e
SBI
Linear (SBI)
The SWP Mitigation Calculation(4-Pumps)
• Standard methodology used by CDFG to calculate the number of “yearling equivalents” owed.
• Losses normalized to address each life stage on a common basis.
• For striped bass, a management decision to use mean of years monitored in place of an annual survey (beginning in 1996), has generated cost savings - and a loss of priceless information.
>20mm SB Yearling Equivalents
y = 0.244x - 145236
R 2 = 0.2237
y = 48143e 8E-07x
R 2 = 0.3474
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000
SWP Exports (a/f)
Ye
arl
ing
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
Lo
sse
s
>20mm SB Ylng
Linear (>20mm SB Ylng)
Expon. (>20mm SB Ylng)
STRIPED BASS YEARLING EQUIVALENTS (DFG Data)
SWPYear <20mm >20mm Total Loss Period <20mm >20mm Total Loss Exports
1982 244347 244347 26082211983 37680 37680 13134801984 873853 873853 21839121985 65177 370976 436153 28416671986 35315 944061 979376 82-86 50246 494183 544429 24745091987 41726 954958 996684 83-87 47406 636306 683712 21996821988 59625 874055 933680 84-88 50481 803581 854062 26581491989 56306 579003 635309 85-89 51630 744611 796241 37834101990 7717 401353 409070 86-90 40138 750686 790824 24113391991 15117 192765 207882 87-91 36098 600427 636525 16977541992 13452 299687 313139 88-92 30443 469373 499816 15079191993 25766 1194011 1219777 89-93 23672 533364 557036 32108111994 2253 122656 124909 90-94 12861 442094 454955 16616741995 3256 265225 268481 91-95 11969 414869 426838 21124231996 29610 214213 243823 92-96 14867 419158 434025 32439801997 29610 219225 248835 93-97 18099 403066 421165 25488761998 29610 71980 101590 94-98 18868 178660 197528 16874041999 29610 271436 301046 95-99 24339 208416 232755 27075172000 29610 928501 958111 96-00 29610 340671 370281 37397732001 29610 262459 292069 97-01 29610 350320 379930 23187332002 29610 243270 272880 98-02 29610 355129 384739 27921852003 29610 173492 203102 99-03 29610 375432 4050422004 00-042005 01-05
Striped Bass Five Year Mean
Handling and Trucking Losses
• Studies of the production process by Raquel (1989).
• Losses varied by species, size, and water temperature:
Net
– Chinook Salmon = 2%
– Steelhead Rainbow Trout = 0%
– Striped Bass = 1 - 84%
– American Shad = 0 - 100%
– Threadfin Shad = 0 - 66%
– White Catfish = 0 - 75%
(Smaller sizes and higher water temperatures = higher losses)
CVP-SWP South Delta Fish Facilities
• CVP (USBR) facility dates from 1957, the SWP (DWR) facility dates from 1967.
• Neither facility was designed to meet current protection goals. Research program and upgraded facilities part of the “Delta Accord,” and “CalFed ROD.”
• Water users now argue that these “assurances” cost too much, but there has been no economic analysis of the cost vs. the benefits of export level increases.
• DeltaKeeper and CSPA are not prepared to agree to additional increases in exports until these concerns are resolved.
The EndImage by Virginia Afentoulis
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