Historical CVP and SWP Salvage and OCAP Loss Estimates

Chinook Salmon, Steelhead Rainbow Trout, and Striped Bass Project Impacts in the southern Delta

DeltaKeeper

prepared by

Dan B. Odenweller

CVP and SWP Annual Exports

• CVP from 1957 to 2002 (Water Year)

• SWP from 1968 to 2002 (Water Year)

• 8500cfs Level of Operation could add up to 1Million Acre/Feet of Additional Exports.

CVP and SWP Exports (1957-2002)

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

199

319

9519

9719

9920

0120

03

Water Year

Acr

e F

ee

t

CVP

SWP

Total

10 11 12 1 2 34 5 6 7

8 9

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Ave

rag

e E

xp

ort

s

Month (Water Year)

Dec

ade

CVP Average Monthly Exports by Decade

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

10 1112 1

2 34

5 67

89

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Ave

rag

e E

xp

ort

s

Month (Water Year)

Dec

ade

SWP Average Monthly Exports by Decade

1957-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

CHINOOK SALMON

USBR (CVP)

• CVP data from 1957 to 2002 (Water Year)

• Note heavy CVP salvage in the 1957 to 1967 period (pre-SWP), but continuing to 1976 (1976-77 drought)

CDWR (SWP)

• SWP data from 1968 to 2002 (Water Year)

• Note the peak salvage in 1986, a wet year.

CS Salvage by Water Year

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

199

319

9519

9719

9920

0120

03

Water Year

Sal

vag

e CVP

SWP

Total

Chinook Salmon Monthly Mean Salvage(CVP - 46 Years, SWP - 35 Years)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Mea

n M

onth

ly S

alva

ge

CVP (1957-02)

SWP (1968-02)

STEELHEAD RAINBOW TROUT

USBR (CVP)

• CVP data from 1979 to 2002 (Water Year)

• Identification prior to 1979 considered unreliable

CDWR (SWP)

• SWP data from 1968 to 2002 (Water Year)

• Note the peak in 1982.

STH Salvage by Water Year

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

199

319

9519

9719

9920

0120

03

Water Year

Sal

vag

e CVP

SWP

Total

Monthly Mean Steelhead Salvage(CVP 1979-02 - SWP 1968-02)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Ste

elhe

ad S

alva

ge

CVP

SWP

CS and STH Catch per Unit Effort(Salvage per Acre Foot)

• Data is on a Water Year Basis

• Expressed as Fish per Acre-Foot

Chinook Salmon Salvage CPUE

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

199

319

9519

9719

9920

01

Water Year

SA

LV

AG

E C

PU

E

CVP CPUE

SWP CPUE

Steelhead CPUE

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

199

319

9519

9719

9920

01

Year

CP

UE CVP CPUE

SWP CPUE

Chinook Salmon OCAP Loss per Unit Effort(OCAP Incidental Take per Acre Foot)

• Again, on a Water Year Basis

• Expressed as Fish per Acre Foot

USBR (CVP)

• CVP - All Years Calculated with 0.15 Pre-screen Loss

• CVP - All Years Calculated with 0.25 Screen Loss

CDWR (CVP)

• SWP - 1968 to 1971 Calculated with 0.15 Pre-screen Loss

• SWP - 1972 to Date Calculated with 0.75 Pre-Screen Loss

• SWP - All Years Calculated with 0.25 Screen Loss

THE DIRECT LOSS CALCULATION MODEL

Methodology taken directly from the OCAP Biological Assessment and Biological Opinion.

CVP assumes a 0.15 Pre-Screen Loss and a 0.25 Screen Loss factor for all years.

SWP assumes a 0.15 Pre-Screen Loss and a 0.25 Screen Loss factor for 1968 to 1971 (no CCFB); and

then assumes a 0.75 Pre-Screen Loss factor for 1972 to present, to account for CCFB losses.

Direct Loss Calculation in the south Delta - 2002/2003

GRAND CVP -TFPF (USBR) SWP - JES Delta FPF (DWR) TOTAL

Loss Loss Loss Loss LOSSUnmarked Marked Unmarked Marked Unmarked Marked Unmarked Marked

Count

Count Duration

Count Interval

Expanded Count 10000 0 10000 0

Screen Loss 0.250 3333 0 0.250 3333 0 6667

Arrive at Screens 13333 0 13333 0

Pre Screen Loss 0.150 2353 0 0.750 40000 0 42353

Arrive at Facility 15686 0 53333 0

CHT&R Loss 0.020 200 0 0.020 200 0 400

Released Alive 9800 0 9800 0

Loss Total 5886 0 43533 0 49420Loss (OCAP Incidental Take) 5886 43533 49420Salvage 10000 10000 20000Take (Arrive at the Facilities) 15686 53333 69020

Chinook Salmon OCAP Loss

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

199

319

9519

9719

9920

01

WATER YEAR

OC

AP

LO

SS

CP

UE

(F

ish

/Acr

e-F

oo

t)

CVP

SWP

Calculated CS OCAP Loss (CVP-SWP)

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

250000019

57

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

199

3

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Water Year

Nu

mb

er CVP

SWP

Total

The Striped Bass Dilemma

• The indicator species for the Estuary in SWRCB D1379 and D 1485.

• Specifically targeted for “doubling” in the CVPIA (PL 102-575). To date, no consideration for striped bass, or for sturgeon, American shad, steelhead, and other anadromous fishes as required by statute.

• Economically important commercial (until 1935) and sport fish, introduced into the Estuary in 1879 from the East coast.

The Striped Bass Index

• Data collected by DFG since 1958, with a few exceptions.

• Decline has been continuous, “goals” were:– SBI = 120 “Historical Levels” - circa D 1379

– SBI = 65 “Recent Historical Levels” - circa D 1485

– SBI = >10 “Post 1976-77 Drought Levels” - circa D 1681

– SBI = <10 Since 1995, coincident with CalFed actions described earlier in the workshops, for WRCS and DS.

• How is this Public Trust Resource (or Beneficial Use) receiving “due process” under the present scheme?

Striped Bass Index(Linear Plot)

y = -26.911Ln(x) + 114.16

R2 = 0.414

y = -1.8964x + 80.228

R2 = 0.5823

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Year

Str

ipe

d B

ass

In

de

xSB YOY

Log. (SB YOY)

Linear (SB YOY)

Striped Bass South Delta Salvage

• CVP and SWP fish protective facilities have recorded fish salvage since they began operations.

• Striped bass were one of the key species which the fish facilities were developed for.

• CVP records 1958 to date (1991-1996 gap is in my data set).

• SWP records 1968 to date (1991-1996 gap is in my data set).

Striped Bass Salvage

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

4500000019

58

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Year

Nu

mb

er CVP

SWP

Total

SBI vs. SB Salvage (CVP+SWP)

y = 182343x + 5E+06

R2 = 0.3146

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0

SBI

Sal

vag

e

SBI

Linear (SBI)

The SWP Mitigation Calculation(4-Pumps)

• Standard methodology used by CDFG to calculate the number of “yearling equivalents” owed.

• Losses normalized to address each life stage on a common basis.

• For striped bass, a management decision to use mean of years monitored in place of an annual survey (beginning in 1996), has generated cost savings - and a loss of priceless information.

>20mm SB Yearling Equivalents

y = 0.244x - 145236

R 2 = 0.2237

y = 48143e 8E-07x

R 2 = 0.3474

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000

SWP Exports (a/f)

Ye

arl

ing

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

Lo

sse

s

>20mm SB Ylng

Linear (>20mm SB Ylng)

Expon. (>20mm SB Ylng)

STRIPED BASS YEARLING EQUIVALENTS (DFG Data)

SWPYear <20mm >20mm Total Loss Period <20mm >20mm Total Loss Exports

1982 244347 244347 26082211983 37680 37680 13134801984 873853 873853 21839121985 65177 370976 436153 28416671986 35315 944061 979376 82-86 50246 494183 544429 24745091987 41726 954958 996684 83-87 47406 636306 683712 21996821988 59625 874055 933680 84-88 50481 803581 854062 26581491989 56306 579003 635309 85-89 51630 744611 796241 37834101990 7717 401353 409070 86-90 40138 750686 790824 24113391991 15117 192765 207882 87-91 36098 600427 636525 16977541992 13452 299687 313139 88-92 30443 469373 499816 15079191993 25766 1194011 1219777 89-93 23672 533364 557036 32108111994 2253 122656 124909 90-94 12861 442094 454955 16616741995 3256 265225 268481 91-95 11969 414869 426838 21124231996 29610 214213 243823 92-96 14867 419158 434025 32439801997 29610 219225 248835 93-97 18099 403066 421165 25488761998 29610 71980 101590 94-98 18868 178660 197528 16874041999 29610 271436 301046 95-99 24339 208416 232755 27075172000 29610 928501 958111 96-00 29610 340671 370281 37397732001 29610 262459 292069 97-01 29610 350320 379930 23187332002 29610 243270 272880 98-02 29610 355129 384739 27921852003 29610 173492 203102 99-03 29610 375432 4050422004 00-042005 01-05

Striped Bass Five Year Mean

Handling and Trucking Losses

• Studies of the production process by Raquel (1989).

• Losses varied by species, size, and water temperature:

Net

– Chinook Salmon = 2%

– Steelhead Rainbow Trout = 0%

– Striped Bass = 1 - 84%

– American Shad = 0 - 100%

– Threadfin Shad = 0 - 66%

– White Catfish = 0 - 75%

(Smaller sizes and higher water temperatures = higher losses)

CVP-SWP South Delta Fish Facilities

• CVP (USBR) facility dates from 1957, the SWP (DWR) facility dates from 1967.

• Neither facility was designed to meet current protection goals. Research program and upgraded facilities part of the “Delta Accord,” and “CalFed ROD.”

• Water users now argue that these “assurances” cost too much, but there has been no economic analysis of the cost vs. the benefits of export level increases.

• DeltaKeeper and CSPA are not prepared to agree to additional increases in exports until these concerns are resolved.

The EndImage by Virginia Afentoulis