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Global Energy Overview
Global Energy Overview
This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook , available throughAmazon.com, Barnes & Noble and other sources
Why Attempts At Reducing Global Energy Consumption Have Not Been Successful
This presentation is unlike any you have everseen on global energy
It will give you a basic and essentialunderstanding of global energy production,consumption and its ever increasing demand
Everything is in consistent energy units, theBTU, allowing you to easily understand the
overall global energy situation without theusual mix of confusing energy terms
It makes it clear why our attempts at reducingglobal energy use have not, so far, beensuccessful
(See authors intro comments, slide 28)
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Why cant energy be explained insimple, consistent terms? It can . . .
Are You Confused About Energy?
32 Billion barrels of oil yearly!
1.7 Billion gallons of gasoline daily!
67 EJoules of electricity yearly!
6.5 Billion short tons of coal yearly!370 Gigawatts of nuclear power!
10 Gigawatts of solar power!
12,600 MTOEs of global energy!
etc ., etc. !A chart used to explain energy (DoE /EIA/Sandia)
No wonder; the way energy information is presented has us allconfused, it might as well be written in a foreign language
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Global Energy Overview 4
The BTU is a relatively small amount of energy; a can
of soda contains about 150 Calories or 600 BTU
Global energy is measured in quadrillion BTU or QBTU*
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) uses QBTU
The only thing you will need to keep in mind is:
Millions > Billions > Trillions > Quadrillions*10 6 > 10 9 > 10 12 > 10 15
The BTU Approach to Global Energy
Global energy production is approaching500 QBTU per year
The BTU approach allows you to see the wholeglobal energy picture, not just pieces of it
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Global Energy Overview 5
Yes, you already know that fossil fuels dominate globalenergy, but did you realize how little the alternatives provide?
Global Energy Production in QBTU
Oil 188 QBTU
Gasoline 76 QBTU
Electricity 193 QBTU
Coal 130 QBTU
Nuclear 28 QBTU
Solar < 0.1 QBTU
Here is the energy datagiven earlier, but now in
consistent QBTU terms
Here are the primesources of global energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q B T U
Global Prime Source Energy QBTU per Year
500 QBTU
87% Fossil
1.6% Alternatives
5.5% ea.
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
9001000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Q B
T U
Figure 2-6: World Prime Source Energy Growth (from EIA Fig 10)
Where we
have been
Where we seemto be going
2.0 % Yearly
Growth
470 QBTU
How Fast is Global Energy Use Increasing?
500 QBTU
The answer: very fast, about twiceas fast as our human population
220 QBTU
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Global Energy Overview 7
500 Q
End-use energy consumption is only 74%of total global energy production
LostEnergy*
Q B
TU
307 Q
193 Q
Gasoline, diesel,fuel oil, natural gas,coal, biofuels, etc.
To ElectricityGeneration
UsedDirectly
Energy Production and End-Use Consumption
ConsumedElectricity
129 Q
64 Q
371 Q
Total EnergyProduction
ElectricityGeneration
End UseConsumption
307 Q
64 Q
Direct-UseConsumption
ElectricityConsumption
Energy production and end-use consumption are not thesame thing; these often get confused in media reporting
* Energy conversion, reserves, transmission losses
Total End-UseConsumption
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To ElectricityGeneration
DeliveredElectricity
193 Q
The Significance of Electricity Losses
Consider this next time you look at your electricitybill or read something about electric cars
Q
BTU
129 QLost
64 Q End-UseConsumption
Energy Conversion,Reserve andTransmissionLosses
For every kilowatt-hour of electricity used, threekilowatt-hours of energy are required to produce it!
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Global Energy Overview 9
Industrial TransportResidential Commercial
Q
BTU
How Global Energy Is Used
246 Q
41 Q
93 Q
58 Q
Industrial, commercial and transport use about 70% of allglobal energy; residential and personal autos use only 30%
Although much emphasis is placed on reducinghome and auto energy, most global energy is usedby the industrial, commercial and transport sectors
500 QBTU per Year Total
Autos
62 Q
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Home
Heating
Air
Condition
Appliances
Plus*
Home
Lighting
32 Q 9 Q 26 Q 6 Q
500 Q
All Global
Energy
Residential Energy
Households use only 11% of global energy productionfor electricity and only 8% for heating fuel
Water
Heating
Clothes
Dryer
13 Q 7 Q
Q BTU
Residential
Sector
93 Q
55 QBTU Electricity
25 QBTU Natural Gas
13 QBTU Other Heating
* kitchen appliances, electronics, indoor and outdoor tools, yardequipment and anything else that plugs-in
Households are the main focus of all of those how tosave energy tips we see daily; but how much energy
do households actually use?
Residential Energy
93 QBTU Total
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ElectricityGeneration
ResidentialElectricity
ResidentialLighting
193 Q
55 Q 7 Q
500 Q
All GlobalEnergy
Electricity Flow-Down
Residential lighting accounts for only1.4% of all global energy production
Q B
TU
Home lighting is about 12% of residential electricity,but how much is this in terms of global energy?
surprised?
To answer this we must turn the telescopearound and look at entire flow-down ofglobal energy, not just at home lighting
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What you dont see directly:Typical familys share of allenergy used in the U.S.
What you see directly:Utilities and gasoline bills
U.S Overall Energy Consumption
We consume three to four times more energy than wethink, most of it for consumer goods and services
In millions of BTU (MBTU) per year
Everything else:Consumer goods andservicesGovernmentEducationHealthFoodClothingEntertainmentTraveletc.
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0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
D o
l l a r p e r
K w
t h r
2008 AdjustedDollars
Then YearDollars
Figure 5-7: Electricity Rates - Inflation Adjusted
energy data tables>inflat
They havent; electricity rates have generallybeen coming down since 1980
Electricity Rate HistoryHow much have electricity rates increased, relative
to inflation, over the past three decades?
20
10
2010
surprised?
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All Fossil Oil Transport Gasoline Motor Vehicles
437 Q
188 Q
97 Q 76 Q
62 Q
500 Q
All Energy
Petroleum Energy Flow-Down
Motor vehicles use only 12% of allglobal energy production
Q B
TU
Yes, we use a lot of gasoline, but the realquestion is ; how much global energy isactually used by motor vehicles*?
* cars and light trucks
12%
surprised again?
To answer this we must turn the telescopearound and look at the entire global energyflow-down, not just at gasoline use alone
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The cost of gasoline is now back to theEnergy Crises peak of the early 1980s
Gasoline Cost: Inflation Adjusted
2010 Adjusted Dollars
The cost of gasoline has increased drastically over the pastseveral years, but how does this compare with historical costs?
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Global Energy Overview 17
Yes, costs are coming down for solar and wind, butSolar and wind can only produce electricity
They are only part-time workers
There is no viable way (yet) for mass storing their energy
Because of these inherent limitations, solar andwind can only be supplemental energy sources
What can solar and wind energy do for us?
at least until massive storagecapability becomes a reality
Solar and Wind Energy?
Electricity generation requires about 40% of global energyproductionAssuming (optimistically) that solar and wind combined work atleast 40% of the time, then by simple math;
40% x 40% equals 16% of our global energy needs
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Growing biofuels requires large amounts of farmland
which otherwise could be used to grow food
Relatively large amounts of energy are required for production(60% of the energy in ethanol is fossil fuel based*)
Biofuels can only be a supplementalsource of global energy
What can biofuels realistically do for us?
Cellulosic plant sources grown on marginal land and low-energyproduction techniques (termites, algae, bacteria, etc.) to producebiofuels remain a future possibility, but until then . . .
* Official USDA output/input production ratio of 1.67(disputed by many as being too high)
Biofuels?
Costs are coming down, but
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Energy Savings Initiatives: Looking Back
We are now using energy 2 to 3 more efficiently, butconsumption continues on its relentless rise
Since the early 1970s great strides have been made inconservation, efficiency and public awareness of energy
Auto mpg has doubled
More efficient appliances
Building codes revised
Clean Air Act initiated
Recycling becomes routine
Earth Day & Earth Summit
Drive less, car pool Lower our thermostats
Use fluorescent bulbs
Get energy-eff. windows
Buy a fuel-efficient car
Use a clothes line etc.
500 QBTU2010
220 QBTU1970
720 QBTU2030
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Energy Demand Keeps Growing Because . . .
Energy does not hold still while we try to fix it
Nearly two billion people still do not have electricity
Several billion others would like to own an automobile
Billions more would like to have bigger, better homes
Everyone would like to become big-time consumers like us
Can we blame them?
Yes, the worlds population is increasing, but the demand for
energy from those of us already here is increasing even faster
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Most energy use is considered necessary and useful,
at least by those using it
Most energy savings initiatives focus on o ur cars and homes, i.e.personal solutions
Personal Solutions Are Not Working
Global energy demand is increasing at over 2% yearlydespite all of our emphasis on Personal Savings
Do you know of anyone who thinks they waste energy?
But most energy is consumed in the Industrial and Commercial Sectors(for the goods and services we buy)
Conservation and improved efficiency have not
translated into reduced energy consumption
Personal energy savings, although helping, are not solving theglobal energy problem
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Global Energy Overview
What if every household in the worldswitched from incandescent bulbs to
fluorescent light bulbs?
Global energy consumption would be
reduced by 3.5 QBTU or 0.7%
Some What-If Examplesfrom the Global Energy Handbook
What if every family in the world reducedtheir household electricity use by 10%?
Global energy consumption would bereduced by 5.5 QBTU or 1.1%
With the demand for global energy increasing at 2%yearly, savings like these are quickly washed away
22
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Today there are over 800 million
cars in the world
Looking at gasoline alone does not givethe full global energy savings picture
Some What-If Examplesfrom the Global Energy Handbook
What if average auto fuel-efficiency went
from todays 22 mpg to 44 mpg by 2030
2010 2020 2030
Q BTU
If mileage roseto 44 mpg avg.
If mileage stayedat 22 mpg avg.
500 Q
720 Q
680 Q
Unfortunately, global energy consumption would not be reduced, only slowed down slightly
The other uses of energy (non-auto)will continue to grow, regardless
By then (2030) there will be nearlytwo billion cars in the world
It will take about 20 years for theworld fleet to reach 44 mpg avg.
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Near-Term vs. Long-Term Solutions
In discussions on energy many will say not to worry;everything will be run using renewable energy sources
solar and wind with mass storage capability; biofuels grownon arid land, platforms in space beaming down energy andlimitless nuclear fusion energy.Do not deny the possibility of these, just point that they arefar-term solutions , hopefully for our grand children or theirgrand children, they are not near-term solutions
In most discussions on global energy the first casualtyis the distinction between near and far-term solutions
The global energy perspective given here is for the near-term;
the next 30 years or so when diminishing fossil-fuel suppliescombine with the predicted dire effects of greenhouse emissions
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Energy Consumption vs. Consumer Spending
At the same time we are also bombarded to consumemore: designer clothes, the latest high-tech gadgets, fastfoods, new and better cars
Unfortunately, energy consumption and consumerspending are two sides of the same coin
Energy consumption is bad
Consumer spending is good
a least in the way our globaleconomy is currently structured
Energy and spending are treated astwo separate things in the media:
We are constantly bombarded with pleas to save energy:drive less, turn down the heater, shut off the computer, usefluorescent bulbs, install energy-efficient appliances
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Winning Battles, but Losing the War
The magnitude and gravity of the problem goes well beyond personal
solutions, conservation and improved efficiency
Emphasis on these lulls us into a false sense of security (we think were
saving the world when we turn down the heater or buy a fuel-efficient car)
Currently the media focuses on solar and wind technology developments,
but more emphasis needs to be placed on the mass storage of energy
The real challenge is not generating energy, but storing it to be used where
and when needed, as we now do with fossil fuels
Yes, we need to continue with personal solutions for energy reduction,but we must realize that these are not going to win the energy war
If there is an Inconvenient Truth it is that everything wehave been doing to reduce global energy consumption,
unfortunately, is not solving the problem
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What Do You Think?
If you like the way global energy ispresented here go to
gloalqbtu.com
To contact the author withquestions or comments go [email protected]
You now should have a better understanding of global energy
You should see why conservation and improved efficiencyhave not been able to reduce the demand for energy
You should see why the solution goes far beyond thecommercial and political slogans we hear daily
And freely pass this on to anyone else that may be interested
This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook , available throughAmazon.com, Barnes & Noble, Robertson Publishing and other sources
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Global Energy Overview 28
The information in this presentation was taken from my book, The Global Energy Handbook. The initial purpose of the book was to compile global energyinformation using a consistent set of energy units. Those of you who have triedto find energy information on the Internet know the problem barrels of oil peryear, gallons of gasoline daily, megawatts of power, MTOEs of energy, etc. TheBTU is used in the book as the common denominator for all global energy data.Using consistent energy units allows one to see the overall global energypicture, not just pieces of it, as usually given in the media and technical reports.
The second purpose was to provide the reader with the means to interpretthe confusing array of information found daily in the media on energyconservation, efficiency and the alternative (or renewable) energy sources. Notthat the media information is necessarily wrong, but only that it is oftenincomplete or can not be related to the global energy situation. For example, weare told that florescent bulbs can reduce home lighting by about fifty-percentover incandescent bulbs (which is true). But what part of home electricity is
home lighting? What part of all electricity is home electricity? What part of allglobal energy goes to electricity? In other words, how much is home lighting interms of overall global energy production? The book (and this presentation)uses the energy flow-down approach to give a clear and simple answer to thisand many other questions like it. In most cases the answers will surprise anddismay you.
Global Energy Overview
J. R. Fortun
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GlobalQBTU.com
This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook ,available through Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, Robertson Publishing
and other sources
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