Global Energy Overview

8/9/2019 Global Energy Overview

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Global Energy Overview


[email protected]

This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook , available throughAmazon.com, Barnes & Noble and other sources

Why Attempts At Reducing Global Energy Consumption Have Not Been Successful

This presentation is unlike any you have everseen on global energy

It will give you a basic and essentialunderstanding of global energy production,consumption and its ever increasing demand

Everything is in consistent energy units, theBTU, allowing you to easily understand the

overall global energy situation without theusual mix of confusing energy terms

It makes it clear why our attempts at reducingglobal energy use have not, so far, beensuccessful

(See authors intro comments, slide 28)


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Global Energy Overview 3

Why cant energy be explained insimple, consistent terms? It can . . .

Are You Confused About Energy?

32 Billion barrels of oil yearly!

1.7 Billion gallons of gasoline daily!

67 EJoules of electricity yearly!

6.5 Billion short tons of coal yearly!370 Gigawatts of nuclear power!

10 Gigawatts of solar power!

12,600 MTOEs of global energy!

etc ., etc. !A chart used to explain energy (DoE /EIA/Sandia)

No wonder; the way energy information is presented has us allconfused, it might as well be written in a foreign language


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The BTU is a relatively small amount of energy; a can

of soda contains about 150 Calories or 600 BTU

Global energy is measured in quadrillion BTU or QBTU*

The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) uses QBTU

The only thing you will need to keep in mind is:

Millions > Billions > Trillions > Quadrillions*10 6 > 10 9 > 10 12 > 10 15

The BTU Approach to Global Energy

Global energy production is approaching500 QBTU per year

The BTU approach allows you to see the wholeglobal energy picture, not just pieces of it


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Yes, you already know that fossil fuels dominate globalenergy, but did you realize how little the alternatives provide?

Global Energy Production in QBTU

Oil 188 QBTU

Gasoline 76 QBTU

Electricity 193 QBTU

Coal 130 QBTU

Nuclear 28 QBTU

Solar < 0.1 QBTU

Here is the energy datagiven earlier, but now in

consistent QBTU terms

Here are the primesources of global energy

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q B T U

Global Prime Source Energy QBTU per Year

500 QBTU

87% Fossil

1.6% Alternatives

5.5% ea.


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

9001000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Q B

T U

Figure 2-6: World Prime Source Energy Growth (from EIA Fig 10)

Where we

have been

Where we seemto be going

2.0 % Yearly

Growth

470 QBTU

How Fast is Global Energy Use Increasing?

500 QBTU

The answer: very fast, about twiceas fast as our human population

220 QBTU


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500 Q

End-use energy consumption is only 74%of total global energy production

LostEnergy*

Q B

TU

307 Q

193 Q

Gasoline, diesel,fuel oil, natural gas,coal, biofuels, etc.

To ElectricityGeneration

UsedDirectly

Energy Production and End-Use Consumption

ConsumedElectricity

129 Q

64 Q

371 Q

Total EnergyProduction

ElectricityGeneration

End UseConsumption

307 Q

64 Q

Direct-UseConsumption

ElectricityConsumption

Energy production and end-use consumption are not thesame thing; these often get confused in media reporting

* Energy conversion, reserves, transmission losses

Total End-UseConsumption


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To ElectricityGeneration

DeliveredElectricity

193 Q

The Significance of Electricity Losses

Consider this next time you look at your electricitybill or read something about electric cars

Q

BTU

129 QLost

64 Q End-UseConsumption

Energy Conversion,Reserve andTransmissionLosses

For every kilowatt-hour of electricity used, threekilowatt-hours of energy are required to produce it!


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Industrial TransportResidential Commercial

Q

BTU

How Global Energy Is Used

246 Q

41 Q

93 Q

58 Q

Industrial, commercial and transport use about 70% of allglobal energy; residential and personal autos use only 30%

Although much emphasis is placed on reducinghome and auto energy, most global energy is usedby the industrial, commercial and transport sectors

500 QBTU per Year Total

Autos

62 Q


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Home

Heating

Air

Condition

Appliances

Plus*

Home

Lighting

32 Q 9 Q 26 Q 6 Q

500 Q

All Global

Energy

Residential Energy

Households use only 11% of global energy productionfor electricity and only 8% for heating fuel

Water

Heating

Clothes

Dryer

13 Q 7 Q

Q BTU

Residential

Sector

93 Q

55 QBTU Electricity

25 QBTU Natural Gas

13 QBTU Other Heating

* kitchen appliances, electronics, indoor and outdoor tools, yardequipment and anything else that plugs-in

Households are the main focus of all of those how tosave energy tips we see daily; but how much energy

do households actually use?

Residential Energy

93 QBTU Total


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ElectricityGeneration

ResidentialElectricity

ResidentialLighting

193 Q

55 Q 7 Q

500 Q

All GlobalEnergy

Electricity Flow-Down

Residential lighting accounts for only1.4% of all global energy production

Q B

TU

Home lighting is about 12% of residential electricity,but how much is this in terms of global energy?

surprised?

To answer this we must turn the telescopearound and look at entire flow-down ofglobal energy, not just at home lighting


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What you dont see directly:Typical familys share of allenergy used in the U.S.

What you see directly:Utilities and gasoline bills

U.S Overall Energy Consumption

We consume three to four times more energy than wethink, most of it for consumer goods and services

In millions of BTU (MBTU) per year

Everything else:Consumer goods andservicesGovernmentEducationHealthFoodClothingEntertainmentTraveletc.


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0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

D o

l l a r p e r

K w

t h r

2008 AdjustedDollars

Then YearDollars

Figure 5-7: Electricity Rates - Inflation Adjusted

energy data tables>inflat

They havent; electricity rates have generallybeen coming down since 1980

Electricity Rate HistoryHow much have electricity rates increased, relative

to inflation, over the past three decades?

20

10

2010

surprised?


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All Fossil Oil Transport Gasoline Motor Vehicles

437 Q

188 Q

97 Q 76 Q

62 Q

500 Q

All Energy

Petroleum Energy Flow-Down

Motor vehicles use only 12% of allglobal energy production

Q B

TU

Yes, we use a lot of gasoline, but the realquestion is ; how much global energy isactually used by motor vehicles*?

* cars and light trucks

12%

surprised again?

To answer this we must turn the telescopearound and look at the entire global energyflow-down, not just at gasoline use alone


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The cost of gasoline is now back to theEnergy Crises peak of the early 1980s

Gasoline Cost: Inflation Adjusted

2010 Adjusted Dollars

The cost of gasoline has increased drastically over the pastseveral years, but how does this compare with historical costs?


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Yes, costs are coming down for solar and wind, butSolar and wind can only produce electricity

They are only part-time workers

There is no viable way (yet) for mass storing their energy

Because of these inherent limitations, solar andwind can only be supplemental energy sources

What can solar and wind energy do for us?

at least until massive storagecapability becomes a reality

Solar and Wind Energy?

Electricity generation requires about 40% of global energyproductionAssuming (optimistically) that solar and wind combined work atleast 40% of the time, then by simple math;

40% x 40% equals 16% of our global energy needs


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Growing biofuels requires large amounts of farmland

which otherwise could be used to grow food

Relatively large amounts of energy are required for production(60% of the energy in ethanol is fossil fuel based*)

Biofuels can only be a supplementalsource of global energy

What can biofuels realistically do for us?

Cellulosic plant sources grown on marginal land and low-energyproduction techniques (termites, algae, bacteria, etc.) to producebiofuels remain a future possibility, but until then . . .

* Official USDA output/input production ratio of 1.67(disputed by many as being too high)

Biofuels?

Costs are coming down, but


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Global Energy Overview19

Energy Savings Initiatives: Looking Back

We are now using energy 2 to 3 more efficiently, butconsumption continues on its relentless rise

Since the early 1970s great strides have been made inconservation, efficiency and public awareness of energy

Auto mpg has doubled

More efficient appliances

Building codes revised

Clean Air Act initiated

Recycling becomes routine

Earth Day & Earth Summit

Drive less, car pool Lower our thermostats

Use fluorescent bulbs

Get energy-eff. windows

Buy a fuel-efficient car

Use a clothes line etc.

500 QBTU2010

220 QBTU1970

720 QBTU2030


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Energy Demand Keeps Growing Because . . .

Energy does not hold still while we try to fix it

Nearly two billion people still do not have electricity

Several billion others would like to own an automobile

Billions more would like to have bigger, better homes

Everyone would like to become big-time consumers like us

Can we blame them?

Yes, the worlds population is increasing, but the demand for

energy from those of us already here is increasing even faster


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Most energy use is considered necessary and useful,

at least by those using it

Most energy savings initiatives focus on o ur cars and homes, i.e.personal solutions

Personal Solutions Are Not Working

Global energy demand is increasing at over 2% yearlydespite all of our emphasis on Personal Savings

Do you know of anyone who thinks they waste energy?

But most energy is consumed in the Industrial and Commercial Sectors(for the goods and services we buy)

Conservation and improved efficiency have not

translated into reduced energy consumption

Personal energy savings, although helping, are not solving theglobal energy problem


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What if every household in the worldswitched from incandescent bulbs to

fluorescent light bulbs?

Global energy consumption would be

reduced by 3.5 QBTU or 0.7%

Some What-If Examplesfrom the Global Energy Handbook

What if every family in the world reducedtheir household electricity use by 10%?

Global energy consumption would bereduced by 5.5 QBTU or 1.1%

With the demand for global energy increasing at 2%yearly, savings like these are quickly washed away

22


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Today there are over 800 million

cars in the world

Looking at gasoline alone does not givethe full global energy savings picture

Some What-If Examplesfrom the Global Energy Handbook

What if average auto fuel-efficiency went

from todays 22 mpg to 44 mpg by 2030

2010 2020 2030

Q BTU

If mileage roseto 44 mpg avg.

If mileage stayedat 22 mpg avg.

500 Q

720 Q

680 Q

Unfortunately, global energy consumption would not be reduced, only slowed down slightly

The other uses of energy (non-auto)will continue to grow, regardless

By then (2030) there will be nearlytwo billion cars in the world

It will take about 20 years for theworld fleet to reach 44 mpg avg.


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Near-Term vs. Long-Term Solutions

In discussions on energy many will say not to worry;everything will be run using renewable energy sources

solar and wind with mass storage capability; biofuels grownon arid land, platforms in space beaming down energy andlimitless nuclear fusion energy.Do not deny the possibility of these, just point that they arefar-term solutions , hopefully for our grand children or theirgrand children, they are not near-term solutions

In most discussions on global energy the first casualtyis the distinction between near and far-term solutions

The global energy perspective given here is for the near-term;

the next 30 years or so when diminishing fossil-fuel suppliescombine with the predicted dire effects of greenhouse emissions


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Energy Consumption vs. Consumer Spending

At the same time we are also bombarded to consumemore: designer clothes, the latest high-tech gadgets, fastfoods, new and better cars

Unfortunately, energy consumption and consumerspending are two sides of the same coin

Energy consumption is bad

Consumer spending is good

a least in the way our globaleconomy is currently structured

Energy and spending are treated astwo separate things in the media:

We are constantly bombarded with pleas to save energy:drive less, turn down the heater, shut off the computer, usefluorescent bulbs, install energy-efficient appliances


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Winning Battles, but Losing the War

The magnitude and gravity of the problem goes well beyond personal

solutions, conservation and improved efficiency

Emphasis on these lulls us into a false sense of security (we think were

saving the world when we turn down the heater or buy a fuel-efficient car)

Currently the media focuses on solar and wind technology developments,

but more emphasis needs to be placed on the mass storage of energy

The real challenge is not generating energy, but storing it to be used where

and when needed, as we now do with fossil fuels

Yes, we need to continue with personal solutions for energy reduction,but we must realize that these are not going to win the energy war

If there is an Inconvenient Truth it is that everything wehave been doing to reduce global energy consumption,

unfortunately, is not solving the problem


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What Do You Think?

If you like the way global energy ispresented here go to

gloalqbtu.com

To contact the author withquestions or comments go [email protected]

You now should have a better understanding of global energy

You should see why conservation and improved efficiencyhave not been able to reduce the demand for energy

You should see why the solution goes far beyond thecommercial and political slogans we hear daily

And freely pass this on to anyone else that may be interested

This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook , available throughAmazon.com, Barnes & Noble, Robertson Publishing and other sources


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The information in this presentation was taken from my book, The Global Energy Handbook. The initial purpose of the book was to compile global energyinformation using a consistent set of energy units. Those of you who have triedto find energy information on the Internet know the problem barrels of oil peryear, gallons of gasoline daily, megawatts of power, MTOEs of energy, etc. TheBTU is used in the book as the common denominator for all global energy data.Using consistent energy units allows one to see the overall global energypicture, not just pieces of it, as usually given in the media and technical reports.

The second purpose was to provide the reader with the means to interpretthe confusing array of information found daily in the media on energyconservation, efficiency and the alternative (or renewable) energy sources. Notthat the media information is necessarily wrong, but only that it is oftenincomplete or can not be related to the global energy situation. For example, weare told that florescent bulbs can reduce home lighting by about fifty-percentover incandescent bulbs (which is true). But what part of home electricity is

home lighting? What part of all electricity is home electricity? What part of allglobal energy goes to electricity? In other words, how much is home lighting interms of overall global energy production? The book (and this presentation)uses the energy flow-down approach to give a clear and simple answer to thisand many other questions like it. In most cases the answers will surprise anddismay you.


J. R. Fortun


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GlobalQBTU.com

[email protected]

This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook ,available through Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, Robertson Publishing

and other sources

Global Energy Overview

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