Future Automotive Fuel
Options/Implications
January 27, 2005
Charles L. Gray, Jr.Advanced Technology Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
2
World Crude Oil Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000
Wo
rld
Cru
de O
il P
rod
ucti
on
(M
bb
l/d
ay)
Proven Reserves Double Proven Reserves
Source: EIA – Department of Energy
3
0
1020
30
40
5060
70
8090
100
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Wor
ld C
rude
Oil
Prod
uctio
n (M
bbl
/day
)
Proven Reserves Double Proven Reserves
2007
Urgency of Planning for Transition World Crude Oil Production/Consumption
0
1020
30
40
5060
70
8090
100
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Wor
ld C
rude
Oil
Prod
uctio
n (M
bbl
/day
)
Proven Reserves Double Proven Reserves
2007
2016
Source: EIA – Department of Energy
4
U.S. Trade Balance - Goods1960-2003
-547,552
-25,500
-111,037
-452,414
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Mil
lio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division
5
Major Positive and Negative Commodities 2003 U.S. Trade Balance
-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
Billion Dollars
Net Trade Balance
Vehicles, Engines, Parts
Petroleum Products
Apparel, Household Goods
Computers, Accessories
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Civilian Aircraft, Engines, Parts
Semiconductors
Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, etc.
Other Industrial Supplies
Plastic Materials
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division
6
Domestic Crude Oil Prices 1949 - Present
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004(Oct)
Dol
lar /
Bar
rel
Nominal Oil P rice
Inflation Adjusted Oil P rice 2004 Dollars
$ 66.20/bbl
$ 54.93/bbl
Source: US Dept of Energy
7
Choices… Decisions…
Engines Incremental
improvements to Gasoline Engines
Clean Diesel Variable Displacement Variable Compression DI Gasoline HCCI engine Fuel Cell Free Piston Engine
Fuels Low Sulfur Gasoline Low Sulfur Diesel Bio-Diesel Fischer-Tropsch Diesel DME (Dimethyl Ether) Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas/CNG/LPG Hydrogen Electricity
Drivetrains CVT Electric Hybrids Hydraulic
Hybrids
The key is to select powertrains that are exciting to the consumer and are simultaneously cost-effective and ultra-efficient.
8
oil- 5,728 (15%)coal- 22,723
(61%)
natural gas- 5,654 (15%)
oil shale / tar sand- 3,173
(9%)
coal- 5,709 (65%)
oil- 126 (1%)
natural gas- 192 (2%)
oil shale / tar sand- 2,840
(32%)
Energy Reserves (Quads BTU)
The World
United States
• International Energy Annual 2002 – EIA/DOE• Oil shale data is from World Energy Council
9
Fuel/Feedstock Comparison - Year 2000
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Coal Biomass Municipal Waste Natural Gas
Feedstock
Ga
so
lin
e E
qu
iva
len
t P
um
p P
ric
e,
$/g
al CNG
Methanol
Electricity
Ethanol
Source: 1991 in-house staff study updated to 2000 dollars.
12
Non-Petroleum Highway Fuel U.S. Production Potential
2008 2010 2012
Low High Low High Low High
Ethanol / Methanol
3.1 5.1 3.7 8.0 4.5 12.5
Biodiesel .1 .24 .14 .6 .22 1.5
CNG/LPG .2 .25 .22 .31 .24 .37
FT-Diesel 1.7 4.7 5.1 10.3 10.3 15.4
TOTAL 5.1 10.3 9.2 19.2 15.3 29.8
Hwy Fuel Demand
189 195 201 .
(billion gallons, gasoline-equivalent)
Note: From non- coal/shale feedstocks
Source: In-house staff sensitivity projections.
13
Choices… Decisions…
Engines Incremental
improvements to Gasoline Engines
Clean Diesel Variable Displacement Variable Compression DI Gasoline HCCI engine Fuel Cell Free Piston Engine
Fuels Low Sulfur Gasoline Low Sulfur Diesel Bio-Diesel Fischer-Tropsch Diesel DME (Dimethyl Ether) Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas/CNG/LPG Hydrogen Electricity
Drivetrains CVT Electric Hybrids Hydraulic
Hybrids
The key is to select powertrains that are exciting to the consumer and are simultaneously cost-effective and ultra-efficient.
14
EPA Clean Diesel Combustion 4 cylinder engine working, installed in mini-van Meets levels of Tier 2/bin5 NOx (without NOx
aftertreatment) Maintains high diesel efficiency Working with industry on application to larger
engines Public Announcement with International Truck and
Engine Corp. – May 2004 Public Announcement with Ford – January 2005
Methanol Engine Great efficiency 40+% Paper in March 2003 SAE World Congress
Advanced Engine Options
15
EPA Clean Diesel Combustion (1.9L Multi-Cylinder Evaluation)
Engine Brake Efficiency (%) Brake Specific NOx (g/hp-hr)
42%
40-41%
Pexhaust = Pinput + .1 Bar
NOx below .2 everywhere
16
Methanol “CPI” 4-Cylinder Efficiency Results
32
3434
36
36
38
38
40
40
42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Speed (rpm)
10
20
20
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
Combined Cycle VW 1.9L PFI SIMethanol Turbo Efficiency Map
Combined Cycle Baseline Diesel
VW 1.9L TDI Base Efficiency Map
20
20
22
22
24
24
26
26
28
28
30
30
32
32
34
34
34
36
36
38
3840
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Speed (rpm)
10
20
20
30
30
40
40
50
50
60
70
80
80
VW 1.9L TDI Base Efficiency Map
40%
40%
17
HCCI Combustion 4 cylinder engine working, installed in truck Virtually “no” NOx or PM emissions Diesel like efficiency from gasoline Excellent engine for a series hybrid Paper in March 2004 SAE World Congress
Free-Piston Engine Great efficiency -Hydraulic power directly from engine for
series hybrids Clean 4-stroke cycle or High Power 2-stroke cycle Capable of Clean Diesel or HCCI combustion High Reliability/Low Cost potential: fewer moving parts Paper in April 2005 SAE World Congress
More Advanced Engine Options
18
HyTEC – Hybrid Thermal Energy Converter Recovers energy from engine exhaust heat, Works best with series hybrids or long haul trucks
Variable Displacement Engine Allows optimum high efficiency use of a small
displacement engine while retaining the option for sustained high power when needed
Variable Compression Engine Allows low power, very efficient engines to also
provide high power performance
Emerging Engine Technologies…
19
Choices… Decisions…
Engines Incremental
improvements to Gasoline Engines
Clean Diesel Variable Displacement Variable Compression DI Gasoline HCCI engine Fuel Cell Free Piston Engine
Fuels Low Sulfur Gasoline Low Sulfur Diesel Bio-Diesel Fischer-Tropsch Diesel DME (Dimethyl Ether) Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas/CNG/LPG Hydrogen Electricity
Drivetrains CVT Electric Hybrids Hydraulic
Hybrids
The key is to select powertrains that are exciting to the consumer and are simultaneously cost-effective and ultra-efficient.
20
Hydraulic Hybrid Configurations
Engine
Trans Drive Shaft
Conventional Vehicle
High Pressure Accumulator
Low Pressure Accumulator
Pump/
Motor
Engine
Pump/Motor & Gearbox
High Pressure Accumulator
Low Pressure Accumulator
Pump/
Motor
Mild Hydraulic
Hybrid (Parallel)
FULLHydraulic
Hybrid(Series)
21
Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid
80+ mpg combined city/highway mpg
~8 seconds 0-60 acceleration time
No need for expensive lightweight materials (test weight 3800 lb)
Led the way for subsequent demonstration vehicles
EPA’s full series hydraulic hybrid test chassis.
Historic EPA Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid Test Chassis
Led to CRADA partnerships with Ford, Eaton, Parker, International Truck and Engine Corp.
22
Sport Utility Vehicle Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid
Full integrated hydraulic hybrid, diesel engine, clean packaging, cost effective, targets 85% mpg improvement from a conventional gasoline vehicle
1-3 year payback for consumer Showcasing the full use
of hydraulics in a Ford Expedition.
Exhibited at the 2004 SAE World Congress
23
Comparison of SUV Technologies… Consumer Payback
Progress Report on Clean and Efficient Automotive Technologies Under Development at EPA - January 2004
www.epa.gov/otaq/technology
24
Urban Delivery Vehicle - Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid
First-ever full integrated hydraulic hybrid delivery vehicle, targets 70% mpg improvement in city driving
2-year payback has attracted attention from fleets
Partnership involving EPA, Eaton, UPS, International Truck and Engine Corporation, and U.S. Army
Showcasing full hydraulic hybrid systems in an
Urban Delivery Vehicle.
Public announcement coming soon!
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