Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Predicting the Future by
Understanding Current and Past Students TASFAA April 2014
Slide 2
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Objective Importance of
data analysis on YOUR campus and how it links to greater retention,
improved graduation rates and enhanced repayment. 2 2014 Inceptia
Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written
permission from Inceptia.
Slide 3
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What is analytics?
Slide 4
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Analytics is the use of
data, statistical analysis, and explanatory predictive models to
gain insights and to act on complex issues. 4 2014 Inceptia
Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written
permission from Inceptia.
Slide 5
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Current Environment 5
Slide 6
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity 1 in every 4 students
leaves college 6 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 7
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity of freshmen drop out 7
2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without
expressed written permission from Inceptia.
Slide 8
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity $13.3 Million Lost to
Attrition 8 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute
without expressed written permission from Inceptia.
Slide 9
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity $6.2 billion in state
appropriated funds 9 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 10
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity State allocations changing
-- supporting graduation 10 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy
or redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 11
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Sound business principles
emphasize higher education institutions much focus on retaining
students to generate an acceptable rate of return to maintain
financial viability. 11 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 12
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity The Starting Point
Analytics 12
Slide 13
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Introducing 13 2014
Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without
expressed written permission from Inceptia. TomAnd, Molly
Slide 14
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Analytics: Provide
evaluation of data to determine patterns Helps mine and connect
vast amounts of information Are being used a schools nation-wide
Offer a predictive view of upcoming challenges Make available a
means to target available resources What you should know about
analytics 14 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 15
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Importance of data
analysis on YOUR campus and how it links to greater retention,
improved graduation rates and enhanced repayment. Objective 15 2014
Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without
expressed written permission from Inceptia.
Slide 16
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Data is used to identify
trends to improve student success 16
Slide 17
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Four Step Process 17 2014
Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without
expressed written permission from Inceptia. Step 1 Build Data
Warehouse Step 2 Define Research Questions Step 3 Modeling &
Reports Step 4 Tracking
Slide 18
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity The process starts with
organizing your student data STEP 1: Building a Data Warehouse of
Student Information 18 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 19
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Turn raw data into
meaningful information STEP 2: Define Your Research Project and
Analyze Data 19 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 20
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What has been the impact
of various recruiting strategies and/or policies on bringing
students to campus? What are the best high schools, counties and
states to target for producing graduates? What characteristics make
up our recruiting efficiency profile? Where did students go who
were admitted but did not matriculate? Which strategies have
produced the most enrollees and graduates? What has happened to the
"Trustee Admits"? How much does your institution spend in
institutional aid to produce a successful graduate? How much is
wasted on dropouts? What are the characteristics of successful
graduates versus dropouts? What high school GPA and ACT levels does
it really take to be successful at your institution? Which is more
important? Which majors produce the most graduates? Your schools
data can help you answer important questions 20 2014 Inceptia
Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written
permission from Inceptia.
Slide 21
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Custom reports that
provide detail and analytics to make strategic decisions STEP 3:
Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling 21 2014 Inceptia
Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written
permission from Inceptia.
Slide 22
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity STEP 3: Benchmark Reports
and Predictive Modeling 22 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy
or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.
Inceptia examples: Financial Aid Statistical Reports
Slide 23
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity STEP 3: Benchmark Reports
and Predictive Modeling 23 2013 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy
or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.
Inceptia examples: Enrollment Management Reports
Slide 24
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Predictive modeling uses
past information to help predict the future Rank students by degree
of risk and identify risk factors for each student early
intervention is key Effectively use your resources to ensure the
greatest results with students STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and
Predictive Modeling 24 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 25
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity STEP 3: Benchmark Reports
and Predictive Modeling 25 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy
or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.
Inceptia examples: Student Success Profile
Slide 26
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Effective research and
analytics is not one and done STEP 4: Ongoing Analysis to Measure
Success 26 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute
without expressed written permission from Inceptia.
Slide 27
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Building a Culture of
Inquiry 27
Slide 28
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Affordability Expenses of
staff, training and tools Re-directing current resources
Accountability requirements mean IR is focused on reporting Data
Data quality, data ownership, data access and data standardization
Roadblocks 28 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy or
redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 29
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Map out strategy and
planning Look for an early win Invest in people over tools Dont
wait for perfection Partnerships and communication are key Plan for
an infrastructure that supports analytics Benchmark to provide
context Creating Success 29 2014 Inceptia Confidential. Do not copy
or redistribute without expressed written permission from
Inceptia.
Slide 30
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Default Prevention:
Enhanced Data Studies 30
Slide 31
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What Do We Do? We Dont
Dont get lost in everyone elses assumptions Dont guess Dont
rationalize Dont pretend default is going away Tennessee Student
Assistance Corporation 31
Slide 32
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity What We Can Do Is
Establish The Facts!! Examine the Past Study the Present Tennessee
Student Assistance Corporation 32
Slide 33
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Borrower Data Sources Loan
Record Detail ReportSchool Portfolio Report Available by request or
scheduled in NSLDS Contains data about borrowers from both Direct
Loans and FFEL Includes more data fields than LRDR 2 Extract
formats available Contains data for 6 years Available with CDR
package in both cycles Contains data about borrowers from both
Direct Loans and FFEL Historical data Extract & Report format
May be ordered as a file in NSLDS Tennessee Student Assistance
Corporation 33
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Loan Record Detail Report
Student identifiers Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if in
default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment,
beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and
amount of the loan Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status
for the borrower and date of the reported status Usage code for
CDR: Denominator, numerator, eligible not counted, neither
Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 35
Slide 36
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Examine the Past Study the
Present Look to the Future School Portfolio Report Tennessee
Student Assistance Corporation 36 Borrower Data
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Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity School Portfolio Data
(SPR) Student identifiers Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if
in default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment,
beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and
amount of the loan Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status
for the borrower and date of the reported status; academic level
Expanded lender, servicer, and guarantor data including original
and current Interest rate Repayment plan Principal & Interest
R2T4, if applicable Delinquency Deferment & Forbearance
Rehabilitation Consolidation PLUS Tennessee Student Assistance
Corporation 37
Slide 38
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Using The Data Examine the
Past Study the Present Look to the Future Plan based on Facts
Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 38
Slide 39
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Making Plans for Future
Cohorts Delinquency Repayment Plans Consolidation Rehabilitation
Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 39
Slide 40
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Enhanced Default
Prevention Data Studies Establishes your Patterns and Trends Needs
Consistent Reviewing Points the Direction for Default Prevention
Strategies Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation 40
Slide 41
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Questions 41
Slide 42
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Paul Mittelhammer VP
Business Development National Strategy 404-929-0251
[email protected] Inceptia.org 42
Slide 43
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Cherry D. Johnson TSAC
Default Aversion Field Representative 731-607-9564
[email protected] tn.gov/tsac 43
Slide 44
Driving Uncertainty into Opportunity Thank you! 44