1DP0904
COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃOCOMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO
José Armando CamposJosé Armando CamposCST
22ndnd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking11st st International Symposium on Iron OreInternational Symposium on Iron Ore
Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 thth, 2004, 2004
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABMASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM
2DP0904
Source: Average Market Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004
GDP - PROJECTIONSGDP - PROJECTIONS
Sector 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Industrial -1.00 4.73 3.66 4.02 3.97
Agricultural 5.00 4.85 4.11 4.22 4.21
Services -0.10 2.45 2.57 3.08 3.28
Total -0.20 3.72 3.53 3.74 3.71
%
3DP0904
1,9
-0,2
3,73,5
3,7 3,7 3,8
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: Market Average Expectations – BACEN, as of July 30, 2004
The variation of 4.2% in the 1H04/1H03, shows that it is possible to have, in 2004, an economic growth greater than the projected number.
The dynamic recently generated in the industry will make the 2005 growth larger than the projected number due to a greater carry-over
%
GDP - PROJECTIONSGDP - PROJECTIONS
4DP0904
Source: IBGE, Anfavea, others
• Greatest 1st semester growth since 2000.
• Growth in all sectors.
• In terms of demand the biggest growth were in exports, which had a 17.8% increase. The indirect steel exports increased 33.5% (1H04/1H03).
• Automobile production in the 1st semester went up by 15% compared to the same period in 2003.
ECONOMY – 1st Semester 2004ECONOMY – 1st Semester 2004
Agriculture + 5.7 %
Industry + 4.2 %
Services + 2.8 %
GDP + 4.2%
Sectors Sub-Sectors
COMPARED TO THE 1ST SEMESTER 2003COMPARED TO THE 1ST SEMESTER 2003
Transformation + 7.3%
+ 2.0 %Construction
+ 2.0 %
Mineral Extraction - 2.9 %
Industrial ServicesPublic Services
5DP0904
Source: IBGE, others
• It was the greatest GDP growth (5.7%) since the 3rd quarter of 1996.
• The Industrial Sector grew 6.6%.
• The Sub-sector Transformation Industry had the highest growth rate pushed by:
ECONOMY – 2nd Quarter 2004ECONOMY – 2nd Quarter 2004
- durable goods – highlight to automotive vehicles
- capital goods – highlight to machines and equipment
RESUMING OF INVESTIMENTS (growth of 11.7%)
•The Construction Sector grew 6.7%, after 5 successive quarters in decrease.
COMPARED TO THE 2ND QUARTER 2003COMPARED TO THE 2ND QUARTER 2003
6DP0904
Source: IBGE
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(January 2003 = 100)(January 2003 = 100)
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
7DP0904
% CAPACITY UTILIZATION% CAPACITY UTILIZATION
INDUSTRY - GENERALINDUSTRY - GENERAL
70,0
75,0
80,0
85,0
90,0
82,2CNI
8DP0904Fonte: Instituto Brasileiro de Siderurgia – IBS
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Ind
ex N
um
ber
: 19
90=
100 Steel Consumption
4.7% per year
2.3% per year
Elasticity - Income 2.1
GDP
STEEL CONSUMPTION x GDPSTEEL CONSUMPTION x GDP
9DP0904
32,2 32,1 31,2 32,2 32,9
29,0
21,319,7
21,1 21,0 21,0
24,5
15,5 15,2
18,0
20,5 19,6 19,6
7,7 8,1 7,1 7,6 8,06,9
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS EVOLUTION OF THE PARTICIPATION OF THE MAIN FINAL CONSUMER SECTORS
APPARENT CONSUMPTIONAPPARENT CONSUMPTION
Source: IBS
Construction Industry
Automotive Industry
Capital Goods, Machines and Equipment (incl. Agricultural)
Household and Commercial Appliances
%
10DP0904
DOMESTIC SALESDOMESTIC SALES
Source: IBS
January ~ June total domestic sales when comparing 04/03 shows an increase of 11% (flat and long).
2002 2003 2004 04/02 04/03
Automotive Industry 449.393 456.534 612.445 36,3 34,2Auto Parts 498.106 551.482 671.683 34,8 21,8Shipbuilding 23.799 15.376 56.892 139,1 270,0Agricultural and Highway Machinery 102.918 132.501 168.057 63,3 26,8Construction Industry 485.431 479.301 532.851 9,8 11,2Household and Commercial Appliances 238.905 228.317 274.989 15,1 20,4
SectoresJanuary - July (tonnes) Variation (%)
11DP0904
EXPORTSEXPORTS
Source: IBS
Exports reached 7.5 mt between January and July 2004; 4.5% greater than the same period in 2003.
Between January and July/2004 semi-finished products represented 52% of our exports, flat products 28%, long products 15% and others 5%.
2003 2004Jan ~ July
Asia45.5%
North Am.21.6%
Latin Am.19.0%
Europe10.4%
* 3.5%
Asia36.1%
North Am. 25.6%
Latin Am.23.4%
Europe10.7%
* 4.2%
(*) Middle East, Africa, Oceania
12DP0904
Steel exports currently represent 42% of total production of finished and semi-finished products. About 55% of the exports correspond to semi-finished products.Finished products exports surpass the level of 5.5 million tons/year for nearly all types of products.
EXPORTSEXPORTS
13DP0904
DOMESTIC STEEL DEMAND - FORECASTDOMESTIC STEEL DEMAND - FORECAST
GDP projection scenarios applied to the equation resulting from the regression analysis give the following demands for steel products:
7,2 7,3 7,7
9,18,3 7,9
9,3 9,7 9,5 9,810,7
11,512,5
13,614,8
4,9 4,75,3
6,3 6,2 6,2 6,5 7,0 7,06,1 6,6 7,0
7,68,1
8,7
12,1 12,013,0
15,314,5 14,1
15,816,7 16,5 16,0
17,218,6
20,1
21,723,5
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
mt
Source: IBS
Flat ProductsLong ProductsTotal
PROJECTION
14DP0904
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45000’ tones
1970 19751980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Capacity
Consumption
36,134,734,1
32,9
28,929,928,3
22,3
6,0
25,026,225,1
20,5
5,4
26,7
19,118,5
15,617,0
13,312,0
5,5
Projection
Production
17,720,6
22,224,0
26,0
38,7 39,843,9
31,1
Note: Does not include the new plants in the Northeast planned for export.
CAPACITY x PRODUCTION x APPARENT CONSUMPTIONCAPACITY x PRODUCTION x APPARENT CONSUMPTION
The present investment program will allow the sector to meet growth demands as well as to keep exports.
EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTIONEVOLUTION AND PRODUCTION
CRUDE STEELCRUDE STEEL
33,0
15DP0904
Investment projects in the sector show a commitment to the internal market by meeting the increase in demand
US$ 7.4 bi shall be invested between 2004 and 2008
Installed capacity will increase from 34 to 44 million t/year
Average annual forecast growth of the internal demand for steel between
1.2 and 1.4 million tons of products.
Production capacity in the sector will remain above the internal demand for
all types of products.
INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
16DP0904
Own Resources50.6%
PROGRAMMED INVESTMENTSPROGRAMMED INVESTMENTS
1.5111.733
2.137
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1.533
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
101066US$US$
501
PROGRAM 2004/2008 INSTALLED COMPANIES
Source: IBS
Domestic Currency24.6%
Foreign Currency24.8%
SOURCE OF THE INVESTMENTS
Total: US$ 7.4 billion
17DP0904
US$ billion
Projection 2004 ~2008 – US$ 7.4 billion
Source: IBS
FlatProducts
LongProducts
Specials Steel
3.1
3.6
0.7
7.4
Sectors
INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
Source: IBS
Reduction25.9%
Rolling12.6%
Steelmaking7.8%
Other18.0%
Raw Materials Treatment
and Energy24.5%
Casting6.5%
(*) Environment = 2,5%(**) Modernization/Automation/Research = 2,2%
Applications
* **
18DP0904
INVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREAINVESTMENTS IN THE REDUCTION AREA
EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION OF THE PROJECTED INSTALLED CAPACITY
7,0 7,0 7,0
22,923,6 23,6
24,4 24,9 24,9
19,2 19,5 19,6
23,124,0
24,7
7,08,6 9,1 9,1
7,57,57,05,0
15,0
25,0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Blast Furnaces
Sinter Plants
Coke Plants
SOL included
mt
Source: IBS
19DP0904
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Private ControlState ControlUS$ million
Investments in Brazilian Steel Industry
Source: IBS
INVESTMENTSINVESTMENTS
Projection+ US$ 7.4 bi
US$ 13.0 bi
20DP0904
Prices Variation – R$/t(Base January 2002 = 100)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
jan/0
2
mar
/02
may
/02
jul/0
2
sept
/02
nov/0
2
jan/0
3
mar
/03
may
/03
jul/0
3
sept
/03
nov/0
3
jan/0
4
mar
/04
may
/04
Scrap
Iron Ore
IGP-M
Pig Iron
Electric Power
jun/0
4
PRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATIONPRICES – RAW MATERIALS x INFLATION
21DP0904
COMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃOCOMPANHIA SIDERÚRGICA DE TUBARÃO
José Armando CamposJosé Armando CamposCST
22ndnd International Meeting on Ironmaking International Meeting on Ironmaking11st st International Symposium on Iron OreInternational Symposium on Iron Ore
Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13Vitória/ES - Brazil – September 13 thth, 2004, 2004
ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABMASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE METALURGIA E MATERIAIS - ABM
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