Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
DFID-Funded Collaborative HPAI Research Project
for Asia and Africa
Joachim Otte & Clare NarrodOn behalf of the IFPRI/ILRI FAO/RVC/Berkeley team
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management ProjectInception Workshop, Chiang Mai, 12 December 2007
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Overview
• Background & Motivation
• Project Goal & Objectives
• Research Modules• Oversight &
Management• Principles & Next
Steps
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
HPAI Threats
• Poor peoples’ livelihoods• disease itself• control measures
• Poultry industry• in affected countries• in non-affected countries
• Global public health• rural populations• urban populations
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Economic Impact of Selected Diseases
Adapted from: Bio-Era. Courtesy of Dr. Will Hueston, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, UM
Estim
ated
Cos
t
Avian Flu, EU$500m
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
$50bn
$40bn
$30bn
$20bn
$10bn BSE, UK $10-13bn Foot & Mouth
Taiwan, $5-8bn
1992 1993 1994 1995
Foot & MouthUK
$30bn
2004
BSE, US $3.5bn
BSE, Canada$1.5bn
Lyme diseaseUS, $2.5bn
SARSChina, Hong Kong,
Singapore, Canada,…$50bn+
Nipah, Malaysia$350-400m
Swine Flu, Netherlands
$2.3bn
BSE, Japan 1.5bn
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Research & Research Gaps
Research• Viral genomics – virus
evolution• Pathogenesis – in humans
and poultry• Immunology – vaccine
development• Disease ecology – wild bird
& domestic reservoirs• Disease epidemiology –
e.g. spread mechanisms
Research Gaps• ‘Stratum-specific’ impacts
of disease and disease control
• Cost-effectiveness / cost-benefit of control (short & long term)
• Institutional angles of HPAI control
• Externalities / ‘global public goods’ aspects of HPAI control
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
The International PartnersInternational Food Policy Research InstituteClare Narrod, Devesh Roy
International Livestock Research InstituteJeff Mariner, Karl Rich
Royal Veterinary College, University of LondonDirk Pfeiffer
RDRC, Berkeley University, CaliforniaDavid Roland-Holst, David ZilbermanFood & Agriculture Organisation, RomeJoachim Otte, Anni McLeod
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Project Goal
Safe smallholder poultry enterprises and poultry markets in regions affected or at risk of HPAI while also minimizing the potential
spread of HPAI to humans
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Project Objectives
1. Provide scientific basis for• cost-effective, and• ‘equitable’
HPAI control strategies, 2. ‘Inject’ insights into
• national,• regional and global
policy processes, and3. Build capacity for evidence-based
formulation of disease control policy
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Scope of Research
• Select group of countries in Africa and Asia who are either infected or at risk of becoming infected will be the focus of the study, however…
• Methods developed by the proposed research will be general, and applicable to other potential disease threats and regions
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Our Strategy
• A 9 part modular approach will be used to capture the complex interactions of the spread of AI and its impact on the economy as a whole• Attention paid to: 1) smallholders and the poor, 2) to
acute vs endemic situations, and 3) long vs short distance spread
• Self-contained, but interlinked modules• Linked by baseline values, assumptions and policy
options
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Module 1:Description of
Systems
and
current disease situation
Module 2:Risk assessment
Module 4: Impact on Livelihoods and
nutrition
Module 5: Impact on institutions
Module 6: Cost/benefit and/or cost/
effectiveness analysis
Module 7: Managementof Institutions
Module 8: Risk communication and development of decision tools
Background
Module 3: Economic impacts if the disease strikes
Module 9: Capacity building in risk analysis and associated economic and
livelihood analysis
Risk Assessment
Consequences
Analysis to Support Risk Management
Research Modules & Linkages
Each module has independent methods and outcomes, but is guided by the overarching
purpose of the project
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Module 1: Poultry Systems & HPAI
Percent5
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
HH Farm Ent. Farm Poultry Ind. Food Process
Production Processing Distribution Demand
ExportU
rban HH
Rural H
H
ThailandPercent
5101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
Production Processing Distribution Demand
Urb H
HR
ural HH
Viet Nam
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Module 2: Risk Assessment
• Qualitative & quantitative• Likelihood of entry of HPAI
virus and exposure of domestic poultry?
• Potential pathways of HPAI spread to poultry and the likelihood that this will happen?
• Likelihood of HPAI becoming endemic and how would the risks / control strategy change?
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Modules 3, 4 & 5: Disease Impacts
• Economic: poultry sector and beyond
• Livelihoods and nutrition
• Institutions (eg animal health services, MARDs, regional organizations)
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Module 6: Effectiveness of Control
• Control options in relation to structure of the poultry industry and animal health system capacity
• Differential social and economic impact of chosen control strategies
• Incentives for compliance / non-compliance across actors
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Module 7: Institutional Responses
• ‘Top-down’ surveillance vs ‘bottom-up’ disease reporting• Public vs private sector engagement• Compensation vs adjustment support• Farm- vs value-chain focused approaches for disease
control• National vs international responsibilities and cost sharing• Experiments (epidemiology and economics) to see what
works under specific situations• etc......
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Module 8: Risk Communication
• Assessment of information needs / gaps of different stakeholders
• Identification of appropriate communication channels for different target audiences (e.g. women & children)
• Development of simple decision support tools for policymakers
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Project Oversight / Management
External: Steering Committee• Experts in different research domains, individuals tasked
with disease control in affected countries and representatives of international organisations
• Charged with providing guidance to the project to ensure that the research conducted:• addresses issues relevant to decision-makers;• is scientifically sound, • is practical and transparent, and• expediently finds its way into national, regional and global decision
making processes.
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Project Oversight / Management (cont.)
Internal: Thematic responsibilities • Technical areas
• Risk assessment: Dirk Pfeiffer (RVC)• Consequence analysis: Clare Narrod (IFPRI)• Risk management: Jeff Mariner (ILRI)
• Translation of research into policy action: Anni McLeod (FAO)
• Capacity building with regional and national collaborators: Joachim Otte (FAO)
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Regional / Country ‘Responsibility’
Indonesia, Ethiopia, Kenya,Nigeria & Ghana / Burkina F.
The Mekong Region: Thailand,Cambodia, Vietnam (Lao PDR)
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Principles
• open for others to join, avoid duplication
• transparent, disclosure of interim findings
• collaborative & trans-disciplinary
• iterative, ongoing adjustments
• constructive peer review • end-user focused
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
Next Steps
• December – January: ‘recruit’ national partners and agree on ways and areas of collaboration
• January: HPAI + research meeting for East Asia (jointly with RESTAD project)
• January: ‘Issues Paper’ on main issues addressed by project
• Spring: ‘Background Papers’ prepared for each project country (module1)
Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project
http://www.hpai-research.net
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