DFID-Funded Collaborative HPAI Research Project …...Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project...

Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project

DFID-Funded Collaborative HPAI Research Project

for Asia and Africa

Joachim Otte & Clare NarrodOn behalf of the IFPRI/ILRI FAO/RVC/Berkeley team

Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management ProjectInception Workshop, Chiang Mai, 12 December 2007


Overview

• Background & Motivation

• Project Goal & Objectives

• Research Modules• Oversight &

Management• Principles & Next

Steps


HPAI Threats

• Poor peoples’ livelihoods• disease itself• control measures

• Poultry industry• in affected countries• in non-affected countries

• Global public health• rural populations• urban populations


Economic Impact of Selected Diseases

Adapted from: Bio-Era. Courtesy of Dr. Will Hueston, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, UM

Estim

ated

Cos

t

Avian Flu, EU$500m

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

$50bn

$40bn

$30bn

$20bn

$10bn BSE, UK $10-13bn Foot & Mouth

Taiwan, $5-8bn

1992 1993 1994 1995

Foot & MouthUK

$30bn

2004

BSE, US $3.5bn

BSE, Canada$1.5bn

Lyme diseaseUS, $2.5bn

SARSChina, Hong Kong,

Singapore, Canada,…$50bn+

Nipah, Malaysia$350-400m

Swine Flu, Netherlands

$2.3bn

BSE, Japan 1.5bn


Research & Research Gaps

Research• Viral genomics – virus

evolution• Pathogenesis – in humans

and poultry• Immunology – vaccine

development• Disease ecology – wild bird

& domestic reservoirs• Disease epidemiology –

e.g. spread mechanisms

Research Gaps• ‘Stratum-specific’ impacts

of disease and disease control

• Cost-effectiveness / cost-benefit of control (short & long term)

• Institutional angles of HPAI control

• Externalities / ‘global public goods’ aspects of HPAI control


The International PartnersInternational Food Policy Research InstituteClare Narrod, Devesh Roy

International Livestock Research InstituteJeff Mariner, Karl Rich

Royal Veterinary College, University of LondonDirk Pfeiffer

RDRC, Berkeley University, CaliforniaDavid Roland-Holst, David ZilbermanFood & Agriculture Organisation, RomeJoachim Otte, Anni McLeod


Project Goal

Safe smallholder poultry enterprises and poultry markets in regions affected or at risk of HPAI while also minimizing the potential

spread of HPAI to humans


Project Objectives

1. Provide scientific basis for• cost-effective, and• ‘equitable’

HPAI control strategies, 2. ‘Inject’ insights into

• national,• regional and global

policy processes, and3. Build capacity for evidence-based

formulation of disease control policy


Scope of Research

• Select group of countries in Africa and Asia who are either infected or at risk of becoming infected will be the focus of the study, however…

• Methods developed by the proposed research will be general, and applicable to other potential disease threats and regions


Our Strategy

• A 9 part modular approach will be used to capture the complex interactions of the spread of AI and its impact on the economy as a whole• Attention paid to: 1) smallholders and the poor, 2) to

acute vs endemic situations, and 3) long vs short distance spread

• Self-contained, but interlinked modules• Linked by baseline values, assumptions and policy

options


Module 1:Description of

Systems

and

current disease situation

Module 2:Risk assessment

Module 4: Impact on Livelihoods and

nutrition

Module 5: Impact on institutions

Module 6: Cost/benefit and/or cost/

effectiveness analysis

Module 7: Managementof Institutions

Module 8: Risk communication and development of decision tools

Background

Module 3: Economic impacts if the disease strikes

Module 9: Capacity building in risk analysis and associated economic and

livelihood analysis

Risk Assessment

Consequences

Analysis to Support Risk Management

Research Modules & Linkages

Each module has independent methods and outcomes, but is guided by the overarching

purpose of the project


Module 1: Poultry Systems & HPAI

Percent5

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100

HH Farm Ent. Farm Poultry Ind. Food Process

Production Processing Distribution Demand

ExportU

rban HH

Rural H

H

ThailandPercent

5101520253035404550556065707580859095

100

Production Processing Distribution Demand

Urb H

HR

ural HH

Viet Nam


Module 2: Risk Assessment

• Qualitative & quantitative• Likelihood of entry of HPAI

virus and exposure of domestic poultry?

• Potential pathways of HPAI spread to poultry and the likelihood that this will happen?

• Likelihood of HPAI becoming endemic and how would the risks / control strategy change?


Modules 3, 4 & 5: Disease Impacts

• Economic: poultry sector and beyond

• Livelihoods and nutrition

• Institutions (eg animal health services, MARDs, regional organizations)


Module 6: Effectiveness of Control

• Control options in relation to structure of the poultry industry and animal health system capacity

• Differential social and economic impact of chosen control strategies

• Incentives for compliance / non-compliance across actors


Module 7: Institutional Responses

• ‘Top-down’ surveillance vs ‘bottom-up’ disease reporting• Public vs private sector engagement• Compensation vs adjustment support• Farm- vs value-chain focused approaches for disease

control• National vs international responsibilities and cost sharing• Experiments (epidemiology and economics) to see what

works under specific situations• etc......


Module 8: Risk Communication

• Assessment of information needs / gaps of different stakeholders

• Identification of appropriate communication channels for different target audiences (e.g. women & children)

• Development of simple decision support tools for policymakers


Project Oversight / Management

External: Steering Committee• Experts in different research domains, individuals tasked

with disease control in affected countries and representatives of international organisations

• Charged with providing guidance to the project to ensure that the research conducted:• addresses issues relevant to decision-makers;• is scientifically sound, • is practical and transparent, and• expediently finds its way into national, regional and global decision

making processes.


Project Oversight / Management (cont.)

Internal: Thematic responsibilities • Technical areas

• Risk assessment: Dirk Pfeiffer (RVC)• Consequence analysis: Clare Narrod (IFPRI)• Risk management: Jeff Mariner (ILRI)

• Translation of research into policy action: Anni McLeod (FAO)

• Capacity building with regional and national collaborators: Joachim Otte (FAO)


Regional / Country ‘Responsibility’

Indonesia, Ethiopia, Kenya,Nigeria & Ghana / Burkina F.

The Mekong Region: Thailand,Cambodia, Vietnam (Lao PDR)


Principles

• open for others to join, avoid duplication

• transparent, disclosure of interim findings

• collaborative & trans-disciplinary

• iterative, ongoing adjustments

• constructive peer review • end-user focused


Next Steps

• December – January: ‘recruit’ national partners and agree on ways and areas of collaboration

• January: HPAI + research meeting for East Asia (jointly with RESTAD project)

• January: ‘Issues Paper’ on main issues addressed by project

• Spring: ‘Background Papers’ prepared for each project country (module1)


http://www.hpai-research.net

DFID-Funded Collaborative HPAI Research Project …...Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Management Research Project...

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