Download - Dealing with Large Scale Power Emergencies Applying The Lessons Learnt From Global Case Studies In The South African Context Shamal Sivasanker AMEU Conference.

Dealing with Large Scale Power EmergenciesApplying The Lessons Learnt From Global Case Studies In The South African Context

Shamal Sivasanker

AMEU Conference 2007

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Conservative Estimation of affected customers: 500 million people affected since turn of the centuryDemand growth: 18.5% growth in energy consumption since 2000

Source: EIA

The world as viewed from above

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What has been driving this growing trend on a global basis?

• Growing industrial and residential demand• China & India economic growth• Pressures on primary energy – fragility of supply lines

• Growing industrial and residential demand• China & India economic growth• Pressures on primary energy – fragility of supply lines

• Impacts of natural weather e.g. Hurricanes, Tsunamis, effects of changing weather conditions

• Impacts of natural weather e.g. Hurricanes, Tsunamis, effects of changing weather conditions

• Skilled labour is a shortage in the Global Industry – leading to constraints in operating

• Skilled labour is a shortage in the Global Industry – leading to constraints in operating

• Ailing infrastructure across the globe• Lack of investment in terms of refurbishment and replacement – particularly in T & D infrastructure

• Ailing infrastructure across the globe• Lack of investment in terms of refurbishment and replacement – particularly in T & D infrastructure

DemandDemand

NaturalPhenomenon

NaturalPhenomenon

Human induced outages

Human induced outages

Ageing NetworksAgeing

Networks

Managing these issues develops more complexity

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Throughout history, events have driven change . . .

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… 2003 was driven by three such events . . .

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Eastern US - August 2003

SituationSituation Root CausesRoot Causes

• Poor forecasting

• Lack of awareness

• Poor vegetation management

• Poor real-time support

• Poor forecasting

• Lack of awareness


• Poor real-time support

• Hot Summer

• Equipment out for repairs

• System close to limit

• Lack of dynamic reserves

• Hot Summer

• Equipment out for repairs

• System close to limit

• Lack of dynamic reserves

RecommendationsRecommendations Lessons LearntLessons Learnt

• Non-compliance Fragility of system

• Poor operation and communication processes

• Lack of stakeholder involvement

• Non-compliance Fragility of system

• Poor operation and communication processes

• Lack of stakeholder involvement

• Strengthen compliance through audits

• Evaluate vegetation management

• Clarify stakeholder role• Improve staff training• Enhance system tools

• Strengthen compliance through audits

• Evaluate vegetation management

• Clarify stakeholder role• Improve staff training• Enhance system tools

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London 2003


• Misinterpretation of alarm

• Switching out of SGT3 left

power supply to single circuit

• Circuit breakers at single

circuit tripped

• Misinterpretation of alarm

• Switching out of SGT3 left

power supply to single circuit

• Circuit breakers at single

circuit tripped

• Reuse of equipment

• Installation of wrong

equipment

• Faults and oil leaks caused

maintenance rescheduling

• Planned outages

• Reuse of equipment

• Installation of wrong

equipment

• Faults and oil leaks caused

maintenance rescheduling

• Planned outages


• Increased stakeholder involvement

• Investigation of equipment installation

• NGC review ops procedures• Ofgem penalty for incidents

• Increased stakeholder involvement

• Investigation of equipment installation

• NGC review ops procedures• Ofgem penalty for incidents

• Human error from relays increasing worldwide

• NGC & contractors made errors in scheme delivery

• NGC practices not rigidly enforced

• Human error from relays increasing worldwide

• NGC & contractors made errors in scheme delivery

• NGC practices not rigidly enforced

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Italy 2003



• Inability to re-close line

• Lack of urgency

• Angle instability and voltage

collapse


• Inability to re-close line

• Lack of urgency

• Angle instability and voltage

collapse

• 15 highly heavily loaded lines

on Italy North border

• Italy’s 6400MW import

increased by 200 – 300 MW

• Swiss grid also under

pressure

• 15 highly heavily loaded lines

on Italy North border

• Italy’s 6400MW import

increased by 200 – 300 MW

• Swiss grid also under

pressure


• Inter-TSO cooperation• UCTE Operation handbook

and DACF review• Evaluation of tree trimming• NGC to enforce min reqs.• Investment in transmission

• Inter-TSO cooperation• UCTE Operation handbook

and DACF review• Evaluation of tree trimming• NGC to enforce min reqs.• Investment in transmission

• System was close to limits• Blackout triggered in

Switzerland• Human, technical and org

factors prevented quick system restoration

• System was close to limits• Blackout triggered in

Switzerland• Human, technical and org

factors prevented quick system restoration

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So what where the common issues?

• Re-use of old equipment (resulting in fragile systems)• Neglect of current equipment (resulting in fragile systems)• Poor vegetation management• Lack of real-time reporting equipment

• Re-use of old equipment (resulting in fragile systems)• Neglect of current equipment (resulting in fragile systems)• Poor vegetation management• Lack of real-time reporting equipment

Infrastructure and InvestmentInfrastructure

and Investment

• Non-compliance with guidelines, regulations and standards• Lack of agreed upon standards in some cases• No collaboration between parties in pursuit of common purpose• Poor role definition of stakeholders

• Non-compliance with guidelines, regulations and standards• Lack of agreed upon standards in some cases• No collaboration between parties in pursuit of common purpose• Poor role definition of stakeholders

Stakeholder InvolvementStakeholder Involvement

• Seasonal affect on demand of energy (causing record peaks)• Causes damage and deteriorates equipment

• Seasonal affect on demand of energy (causing record peaks)• Causes damage and deteriorates equipmentWeather AffectWeather Affect

• Insufficient training (resulting in mistakes in operating equipment and misinterpretations of situations)

• Lack of skilled and experienced operators

• Insufficient training (resulting in mistakes in operating equipment and misinterpretations of situations)

• Lack of skilled and experienced operatorsHuman ErrorHuman Error

• Grids were operated at levels close to critical levels in every case• Operational procedures in emergency situations inadequate

• Grids were operated at levels close to critical levels in every case• Operational procedures in emergency situations inadequate

Operations and Processes Laid out by Relevant

Bodies

Operations and Processes Laid out by Relevant

Bodies

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So how did the Electricity Industry respond, and what were the lessons learnt?

Risk Risk ManagementManagement

Preparedness Risk

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Build AgilityAgility into the business to respond to an emergency

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Building AgilityAgility in Utilities to ensure effective response

BusinessContinuity

Management

BusinessContinuity

Management

Clearly Defined

Governance

Clearly Defined

Governance

StreamlinedEmergency

Management Processes

StreamlinedEmergency

Management Processes

The SA ContextThe SA Context

• Closer integration and collaboration

in the industry

• Processes that extend across

boundaries

• Governance that is clearly defined in

the case of emergencies

• Pre-defined protocols

• Building in organisation flexibility

and adaptive capacity

Practices

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Having the ability to Sense and ForewarnSense and Forewarn

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Sensing and ForewarningSensing and Forewarning Mechanisms help Focus & Prepare the Organisation

Dynamic risk management attempts to improve the ability of organisations to predict unknown future risks that could impact on the business, its’

performance and stakeholders using concepts such as sensitivity analysis

Dynamic risk management attempts to improve the ability of organisations to predict unknown future risks that could impact on the business, its’

performance and stakeholders using concepts such as sensitivity analysis

Source: Deloitte’s Risk Intelligent Enterprise Model

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Preparing for Strategic and Operational ResponseStrategic and Operational Response

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“We believe that much of the strength and resilience evident in our organization is an outcome of continued investment in our infrastructure and our people, preparedness planning and ongoing efforts to manage risk. We also believe our pursuit of sustainable development over the past five years made us significantly stronger and more resilient.”Source: Entergy Resilience & Renewal, Sustainable Development Report 2005

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Preparing for Strategic and Operational ResponseStrategic and Operational Response

ScenarioPlanningScenarioPlanning

PreparednessExercises

& Indicators

PreparednessExercises

& Indicators

StandardisedEmergencyResponse

Plans

StandardisedEmergencyResponse

Plans


• Identification of strategic risks

• Integrated forums with key

stakeholder groups to establish

business continuity plans

• Integration with National Disaster

Recovery

• Establishment of a command

centre(s)

• Running preparedness simulation

exercises to create awareness and

help check level of readiness.

Practices

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Strategic Management Strategic Management of Stakeholders

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Strategic Management Strategic Management of Stakeholders

Be VisibleBe Visible

Communicate Frequently

Communicate Frequently

Don't Hide The Bad News

Don't Hide The Bad News


• Different stakeholders need

different approaches

• Deal with the facts

• Ongoing interaction with

stakeholders on the Electricity

issues

• Address your stakeholder concerns

• Win them over!

Practices

AddressPerception Vs. Reality

AddressPerception Vs. Reality

BeEmpathetic

BeEmpathetic

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Emergencies such as these re-define the Political Landscape

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Building Organisational ResilienceOrganisational Resilience

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Toward Enterprise Resiliency: Develop a predictive model that will enable a company to preemptively recognize and successfully respond to a threat before it becomes a crisis

Result: the company becomes a leading-edge resilient organization prepared for and adaptive to counter any eventuality by incorporating a robust threat detection and prioritization, and resource mobilization techniques.

Infinite EventsInfinite Events

FiniteInternal

& ExternalImpacts

FiniteInternal

& ExternalImpacts

EffectsEffects

People

Process

Technology

Infrastructure

Partners

Market

Economic

People

Process

Technology

Infrastructure

Partners

Market

Economic

Resiliency PlanningResiliency Planning

Prioritized Ranking of

Threats

Review of Existing Plans

Threat Reduction Controls

Gap Analysis

Development & Testing of

Resiliency Plans

Prioritized Ranking of

Threats

Review of Existing Plans

Threat Reduction Controls

Gap Analysis

Development & Testing of

Resiliency Plans

Physical, Personnel, Information, Reputation, Participants, Economic,

Public and Private Infrastructure Impacts

Physical, Personnel, Information, Reputation, Participants, Economic,

Public and Private Infrastructure Impacts

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Drive a collective accountability for the issues and ensure that we are psychologically prepared to operate in a tight environment . . .

Source: Brian Lapin

Psychological Security

High

High

Resilience Culture

Scapegoating & Finger pointing

Low

Disasters waiting to happen

Paralysis & FearAc

co

un

tab

ility

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An integrated Emergency Management Model for the Electricity Industry to drive higher collective responsibility

DPLGDPE DME

ESKOM MUNICS

National DisasterRecovery

Collaboration on:-• Scenario Planning and Macro risk factors• World Cup 2010 Readiness• Integration on load shedding• Joint Emergency Preparedness Simulations• Consistent and focussed approach to stakeholder management

Local GovernmentDRC

ERCCRJCC

Customers, Stakeholders

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“Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong – these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history.”

Sir Winston Churchill

Phezu Komkhono

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