Climate Change in Norway: Social Science Perspectives on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
Lynn RosentraterDepartment of Sociology and Human GeographyUniversity of Oslo
ISSE Coffee Talk29 April 2008
Overview
• Introduction to climate research in Norway– Impacts (physical basis)– Vulnerability (recent efforts)– Adaptation (current research)
• Tools for adaptation– Work in progress, feedback welcome!
NORKLIMA
• Climate change and its impacts in Norway– The climate system– Effects on the physical
environment– Effects on biotic systems– Effects on society
• Duration: 2004-2013• Budget: NOK 70 million
per year
Impacts of climate change
• What do the models say– temperature
Impacts of climate change
• What do the models say– precipitation
Vulnerability to climate change
• Spatial analysis of climate vulnerability (O’Brien et al., 2004)
• Indicator-based model (Aall and Norland, 2005)
Vulnerable or resilient?
O’Brien et al., 2004
Indicators of institutional vulnerability
Aall and Norland, 2005
Vulnerability Matrix
Early responses
• Promotion of climate risk management
• Revised building codes out for public comment
• National secretariat for climate change
PLAN
Research questions• How do social processes
influence the capacity to adapt to climate change?
• What are the limits to adaptation as a response to changing climate conditions?
• What are the implications of these limits for human security?
Partner institutions• CICERO• The Fridtjof Nansen Institute• Norwegian Institute for
Urban and Regional Research
• Norwegian Meteorological Institute
• University of Bergen• University of Oslo• University of Tromsø
PLAN
1. Contexts for Climate Change Adaptation in Norway2. Institutional Learning, Networks and Local
Knowledge3. New Public Management and the Energy Sector’s
Ability to Adapt to Climate Change4. Adaptation and Mitigation in Urban Planning and
Waterfront Development5. Assessing the Limits to Adaptation and
Consequences for Human Security6. An Integrated Geographic Information System for
Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Capacity in Norway
Tools for Adaptation
Work in progress
Focus of this work
1. Scope and audience– What is adaptation to climate change?– Who should be involved in adaptation planning?
2. Techniques used in adaptation processes– Information gathering– Assessment and screening– Implementation and monitoring
3. GIS as a platform for adaptation planning
Timing of planning adaptation
Füssel 2007
Adaptation as a social process
Dimensions• Climate-sensitive domains• Types of climate hazard• Predictability of climatic
changes• Non-climatic conditions• Planning horizon
Actors
• Scientists• Practitioners• Decision-makers• Stakeholders• Analysts
Based on Smit et al. 1999
A rose by any other name…
Risk management Adaptive resource management
CSIROUK CIP
Techniques used in adaptation
Information gatheringAssessment and screeningImplementation and monitoring
Key issuesExamplesConsiderations
Information gathering
• Key issues– Identify problem and objectives– Establish decision-making criteria
• Examples– Brainstorming, event trees, focus groups
• Considerations– Familiarity with the problem area– Number of stakeholders involved
Assessment and screening
• Key issue– Provide qualitative and quantitative estimates of
climate risk, vulnerabilities, and response options• Examples
– Modeling exercises, vulnerability matrices, expert judgment
• Considerations– Complexity, data, regret
Implementation and monitoring
• Key issues– Decision making– Monitor, evaluate, review
• Examples– Cost-benefit analysis, decision matrices, policy
exercise• Considerations
– Apply success criteria– Satisfaction
Software
• Risk assessment and decision analysis software• Sector specific
– Crop and irrigation models– WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning)– CIMSiM and DENSiM (Dengue Simulation Model)
• Integrated assessments– NAIADE: Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and
Decision Environments– POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy
Systems)– RICE (Regional Integrated model of Climate and the
Economy) and DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy)
GIS as a platform for adaptation planningTechnique Information Assessment ImplementationCommunity mapping √ √
Visualization √ √ √Data management √ √ √
Statistical analysis √ √
Spatial modeling √ √Agent-based modeling √
Multi-criteria evaluation √
Case study: Fredrikstad, Norway
GIS for decision support in agricultural planning
• Climate impacts: increased storminess, warmer winters with little frost, flood risk (sea level rise, rivers)
• Moderate adaptive capacity– Soil erosion and nutrient loading
• Challenges– Multi-scale approach– Qualitative and quantitative inputs
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