Climate Change in Norway: Social Science Perspectives on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Lynn RosentraterDepartment of Sociology and Human GeographyUniversity of Oslo

ISSE Coffee Talk29 April 2008

Overview

• Introduction to climate research in Norway– Impacts (physical basis)– Vulnerability (recent efforts)– Adaptation (current research)

• Tools for adaptation– Work in progress, feedback welcome!

NORKLIMA

• Climate change and its impacts in Norway– The climate system– Effects on the physical

environment– Effects on biotic systems– Effects on society

• Duration: 2004-2013• Budget: NOK 70 million

per year

Impacts of climate change

• What do the models say– temperature

Impacts of climate change

• What do the models say– precipitation

Vulnerability to climate change

• Spatial analysis of climate vulnerability (O’Brien et al., 2004)

• Indicator-based model (Aall and Norland, 2005)

Vulnerable or resilient?

O’Brien et al., 2004

Indicators of institutional vulnerability

Aall and Norland, 2005

Vulnerability Matrix

Early responses

• Promotion of climate risk management

• Revised building codes out for public comment

• National secretariat for climate change

PLAN

Research questions• How do social processes

influence the capacity to adapt to climate change?

• What are the limits to adaptation as a response to changing climate conditions?

• What are the implications of these limits for human security?

Partner institutions• CICERO• The Fridtjof Nansen Institute• Norwegian Institute for

Urban and Regional Research

• Norwegian Meteorological Institute

• University of Bergen• University of Oslo• University of Tromsø

PLAN

1. Contexts for Climate Change Adaptation in Norway2. Institutional Learning, Networks and Local

Knowledge3. New Public Management and the Energy Sector’s

Ability to Adapt to Climate Change4. Adaptation and Mitigation in Urban Planning and

Waterfront Development5. Assessing the Limits to Adaptation and

Consequences for Human Security6. An Integrated Geographic Information System for

Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Capacity in Norway

Tools for Adaptation

Work in progress

Focus of this work

1. Scope and audience– What is adaptation to climate change?– Who should be involved in adaptation planning?

2. Techniques used in adaptation processes– Information gathering– Assessment and screening– Implementation and monitoring

3. GIS as a platform for adaptation planning

Timing of planning adaptation

Füssel 2007

Adaptation as a social process

Dimensions• Climate-sensitive domains• Types of climate hazard• Predictability of climatic

changes• Non-climatic conditions• Planning horizon

Actors

• Scientists• Practitioners• Decision-makers• Stakeholders• Analysts

Based on Smit et al. 1999

A rose by any other name…

Risk management Adaptive resource management

CSIROUK CIP

Techniques used in adaptation

Information gatheringAssessment and screeningImplementation and monitoring

Key issuesExamplesConsiderations

Information gathering

• Key issues– Identify problem and objectives– Establish decision-making criteria

• Examples– Brainstorming, event trees, focus groups

• Considerations– Familiarity with the problem area– Number of stakeholders involved

Assessment and screening

• Key issue– Provide qualitative and quantitative estimates of

climate risk, vulnerabilities, and response options• Examples

– Modeling exercises, vulnerability matrices, expert judgment

• Considerations– Complexity, data, regret

Implementation and monitoring

• Key issues– Decision making– Monitor, evaluate, review

• Examples– Cost-benefit analysis, decision matrices, policy

exercise• Considerations

– Apply success criteria– Satisfaction

Software

• Risk assessment and decision analysis software• Sector specific

– Crop and irrigation models– WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning)– CIMSiM and DENSiM (Dengue Simulation Model)

• Integrated assessments– NAIADE: Novel Approach to Imprecise Assessment and

Decision Environments– POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy

Systems)– RICE (Regional Integrated model of Climate and the

Economy) and DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy)

GIS as a platform for adaptation planningTechnique Information Assessment ImplementationCommunity mapping √ √

Visualization √ √ √Data management √ √ √

Statistical analysis √ √

Spatial modeling √ √Agent-based modeling √

Multi-criteria evaluation √

Case study: Fredrikstad, Norway

GIS for decision support in agricultural planning

• Climate impacts: increased storminess, warmer winters with little frost, flood risk (sea level rise, rivers)

• Moderate adaptive capacity– Soil erosion and nutrient loading

• Challenges– Multi-scale approach– Qualitative and quantitative inputs