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Games Foxes Play
Planning for extraordinary times
Chantell Ilbury
Clem Sunter
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Chart 1: The Shooting Range
Ready Aim Fire!
Right time to
have theconversations
Develop
thestrategy
Determine
the tactics
Strategic
PlansOperational
Plans
Resonates with the Business Maturity Model Resonates with the Business Maturity Model
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Chart 2: The Cone of Uncertainty 1
Time
Degree
Of
uncertainty
StrategiesTactics
Present
Resonates with the 3 lenses Resonates with the 3 lenses
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3. Options
2.
a. Key uncertainties
b. Scenarios
4. Decisions
1. Rules of the game
Chart 3: The Prototype Matrix
Resonates with the PMOE Resonates with the PMOE
Control
Certainty
Absence of Control
Uncertainty
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Circles
Foxes
Games
Rimless Wagon Wheels
Hedgehogs
Dots
Chart 4: Likes and Dislikes
Hedgehogs are deep specialists Foxes are wiley, resourceful & fleet footedHedgehogs are deep specialists Foxes are wiley, resourceful & fleet footed
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Chart 5: Rimless Wagon Wheels
Resonates with dont box people and do encourage decision making Resonates with dont box people and do encourage decision making
Central
Cabal
Business
Unit Head
Business
Unit Head
Business
Unit Head
Business
Unit Head
BusinessUnit Head
Business
Unit Head
BusinessUnit Head
Business
Unit Head
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Chart 6: Conversation Circles
Resonates with our strategic approachResonates with our strategic approach
Field of Alignment
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Defining
the game
1.
Scope
2.
Players3.
Rules of
the game
4.Key
Uncertain-
ties
5.
Scenarios
PlayingThe game6.
SWOT
7.Options
8.Decisions
9.
Measurable
Outcomes
Chart 7: The Conversation Model
10.
Meaning of
Winning
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10. Meaning of Winning
Chart 8: Strategy to Action
7.
Options
8.
Decisions
9.
Measurable
Outcomes
ACTION
1.
Scope
2.
Players
3.
Rules ofthe game
4.
Key
Uncertain-
ties
5.
Scenarios
6.
SWOT
I
PAs
I
PAs
IPAs = issues for
Potential action
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Chart 14: The picture frame
P r o d u c t R a n g e
P r o d u c t C h a i n
M a r k e t S e g m e n t
G e o g r a p h i c a l F o o t p r i n t
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Chart 15: The Seven Frames
GLOBAL
NATIONAL
INDUSTRY
COMPANYBusinessUnits
Departments
Individuals
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Chart 16: The Looking Glass
Culture
Core Competencies
Organisational StructureBusiness Model
Resources
Location
The kind of introspective questions
you should be asking
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Chart 18: The Players Circle
Neutral
For Against
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Chart 20:The DNA Triangle
Aspirational
NormativeDescriptive
The shifting equilibrium of the rules of the game resonates with triangles
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Chart 21: The DNA Chain
Raw materials supplier
Producer
Wholesaler
Retailer
ConsumerD N
A
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Chart 22: The DNA Network
D N
A
Network
Supply
Chain
The game is complex, not one dimentional or linear
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Society Technology
Econom
yLaw
Environment
Po
litic
s
Chart 24: The flower of uncertainty
International
National
Local
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Chart 25: The PI chart 1
Unknown unknowns
Known unknowns
Predictability
ImpactLow
Low
High
High
Resonates with the momentum line
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Chart 26: The PI chart 2
Unknown unknowns
Predictability
ImpactLow
Low
High
High
Resonates with the momentum line
Wild cards
Key uncertainties
Rules of the game
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Chart 27: The PI chart 3Predictability
Low
Impact
Low High
High
Resonates with the momentum line
Key uncertainties
Rules of the game
1
4
3 10
2
5
6
7 8 9
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Chart 28: The HIV PI chartPredictability
Low
Impact
Low High
High
Key uncertainties
Rules of the game
Wild cards
Unknown unknowns
1980
1985
1995
2004Sub-Saharan
Africa
2004Western
Countries
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Scenario 4
(Draw)
Scenario 3
(Lose)
Scenario 1
(Win)
Scenario 2
(Draw)
Positive +
Positive+
Negative -
Negative -
Chart 30: The Scenario Gameboard 1
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Intermediate
Scenario
Worst- case
Scenario
Best-case
Scenario
Intermediate
Scenario
+
+
-
-
Chart 30: The Scenario Gameboard 2
-
+-
+
Intermediate
Scenario
Worst- case
Scenario
Best-case
Scenario
Intermediate
Scenario
+
+
-
-
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Intermediate
Scenario
Worst-case
scenario
Best-case
scenario
Intermediate
Scenario
Positive +
Positive+
Negative -
Negative -
Chart 32: The Scenario Gameboard 3
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Hard Times
The Perfect
Storm
Frictionless
Capitalism
Fragmented
World
Stable World
StrongMarket
Unstable World
WeakMarket
Chart 33: The Mulitnational Gameboard
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Stability +
Competitiveness
+
Stability -
CompetitiveNess -
Chart 34: The Country Gameboard
Middle
East
Third worlddictatorships
Argentina
Russia
South
Africa
Europe Australia
USA
Japan
China
Asian
Tigers
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Grindstone
Fubar
Gold Medal
Fools Paradise
Efficiency
+
Market +
Efficiency -
Market -
Chart 35 The Business Gameboard 1
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Grindstone
Fubar
Gold Medal
Fools Paradise
Efficiency
+
Market +
Efficiency -
Market -
Chart 36 The Business Gameboard 2
A
A
B
B
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Chart 41: The SWOT List
Scenario Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
1
2
3
4
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Chart 43: The Ethical Compass
N
S
EW
Immoral
Moral
Illegal
legal
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Chart 44: The Option Dartboard 1High
HighLow
Resource
Input
Output
1
2
34
Exclusive
Inclusive
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Chart 45: The Option Dartboard 2High
HighLow
Resource
Input
Output
1
2
34
Low Leverage
High Leverage
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Chart 46: The SHE Curve
Low
Leverage
High
Leverage
Low
Leverage
0% Safe
100% Safe
Expenditure $
SHE = safety, health, environment
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Chart 47: The R&R graph
Return
Risk
Medium BetsLarge Bets Small Bets
The magnitude of
the bet is the %wealth on wager The riskis the
chance of
unintended failure
due to market,
cost, technical or
political factors or acombination
thereof. The return is the
return on capital
employed or the
IRR discounting all
future cash flows.
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Chart 49: The Decision Tree
D
IO
UO 0O
IO = intended outcome
UO = unintended outcome
0O = zero outcome
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Chart 52: The Incremental Staircase 1
Outcome
TIme
Ideal StaircaseLong-Term Goal
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Chart 53: The Incremental Staircase 2
Outcome
TIme
Ideal Staircase
Long-Term Goal
Actual Staircase
Resonates with our experience & business growth model
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Chart 55: The Kaleidoscope of Winning
Strongest
Brand
Most
Admired
Company
SafestOperation
Best
Employer
Highest
InvestmentReturn
Leading
Innovator
Supplier of
Choice
GreenOperation
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Defining
the game
PlayingThe game
Chart 7: The Conversation Model Full House
D
IOUO 0O
Intermediate
Scenario
Worst-case
scenario
Best-casescenario
IntermediateScenario
+
+
-
-
Society Technology
Eco
nomy
Law
Environment
Politic
s
Neutral
For Against
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