ARB Update on HFC Emissions Reductions Efforts
California Air Resources Board
May 2017Glenn Gallagher
The Future of Refrigerants is Low-GWP
• U.S. EPA SNAP Program, European Union, Kigali Amendment signatories, and ARB agree: Refrigerants will be low-GWP.
• Very low-GWP or “sort of” low-GWP?
• When will this happen?
• Natural or synthetic?2
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Problem: HFC emissions are growingEmission Trends of ODS and ODS substitutes (hydrofluorocarbons) – (as ODS are phased out, HFCs increase)
HFC Emissions in CA
Refrigerants86%Propellants
7%
Insulating foam6%
Solvents, fire suppressants
1%
5
HFC Emissions in CA by Sector
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Commercial Refrigeration
(> 50 lbs.)36%
Commercial Refrigeration
(< 50 lbs.)6%
Commercial AC
14%
Residential Refrigeration
1%
Residential AC
10%
Mobile AC + Transport
Refrig19%
Propellants7%
Insulating Foam
6%
Solvents, Fire Suppressants
1%
HFC Production/Consumption Global Phasedown Schedule
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
HFC
Cons
umpt
ion
com
pare
d to
Bas
elin
e
A5 DevelopedCountriesConsumption Cap
Non-A5 DevelopingCountries (Group 1)Consumption Cap
Non-A5 DevelopingCountries (Group 2:Gulf Coast Countries,India, Iran, Iraq,Pakistan)Consumption Cap
Impact of Global Phasedown on California HFC Reduction Goals
• Phasedown alone will not reach the 40% HFC reductions required in CA by 2030 by Senate Bill 1383
• Lag time 8-20 years between reductions in production and actual emissions reductions (installed base of existing equipment with slow turnover)
• Need additional HFC reductions7
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MM
TCO
2E (1
00-y
ear G
WP)
HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown
HFC EmissionsBAU, NoPhasedown, No NewMeasures
40% Reductionsfrom CA 2013BaselineCA Emissions
Goal 2030
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MM
TCO
2E (1
00-y
ear G
WP)
HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled To California
HFC EmissionsBAU, NoPhasedown, NoNew Measures
Kigali AmendmentHFC Supply (notEmissions)
40% Reductionsfrom CA 2013Baseline
CA EmissionsGoal 2030
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MM
TCO
2E (1
00-y
ear G
WP)
HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled to California
HFC Emissions BAU,No Phasedown, NoNew Measures
Kigali AmendmentHFC Supply (notEmissions)
Likely HFC Emissionsas Result of KigaliAmendment
40% Reductions fromCA 2013 Baseline
CA EmissionsGoal 2030
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MM
TCO
2E (1
00-y
ear G
WP)
HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled to California
HFC Emissions BAU,No Phasedown, NoNew Measures
Kigali AmendmentHFC Supply (notEmissions)
Likely HFC Emissionsas Result of KigaliAmendment
40% Reductions fromCA 2013 Baseline
CA EmissionsGoal 2030
10 Years Too Late
HFC Rulemaking to begin Summer 2017
• Prohibit refrigerants with GWP 150 or greater in new non-residential stationary refrigeration equipment
• Sales restriction on refrigerants with GWP ≥ 2500; followed four years later by restriction on GWP ≥ 1500
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HFC Regulations (cont.)
Potential Exemptions for New Equipment:
• Refrigeration systems < 50 pounds
• Very-low temperature < -50° C (-58° F)
Exemption to High-GWP Sales Restriction:
• Recycled or reclaimed refrigerants
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Stationary Air-Conditioning
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ARB has proposed < 750 GWPin new AC systems
Not in rulemaking 2017 (codes & standards are not ready)
To Achieve Lower-GWP for AC, Codes & Standards Must Be Updated
• Lower-GWP (<750) candidates for AC are A2L (very slightly flammable).
• A2L is functionally not allowed right now.
• ASHRAE, AHRI, UL, DOE, all working together to update codes & standards.
• Updated codes may not be in force until 2020-2022.
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ARB Next Steps• Continue to work on codes and standards
updates to allow more low-GWP refrigerants
• Research contract for low-GWP feasibility of convenience-store size refrigeration
• Notice of HFC rulemaking Summer 2017
• Workshops and public input 2017 – 2018
• Board Approval 2018-201916
A few questions that ARB hears from end-users somewhat skeptical of the need for low-GWP requirements:
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If the Refrigerant Does Not Leak or Is Managed Properly, Then What’s the Problem?
• Leaks happen.
• Annual leak rates have been reduced, but not all leaks are preventable.
• End-of-life losses are significant.
• Use the “better” refrigerant at the start.18
Why GWP Limits? Why Not Set a Performance Standard for “total carbon footprint” of system?
• Great idea, however …..
• Difficult to set standards for facilities and systems that differ greatly.
• What is the right baseline system? R-22, R-404A, R-407A, R-410A?
• Enforcement challenges anticipated. 19
Why not just let the global HFC phase-down work?
• Takes too long, too muchexcess GHG emitted in the meantime.
• California must follow its own HFC reductions regulations (SB 1383) which
cannot be met through aphase-down alone.
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Q: Are HFOs Environmentally Friendly? A: ARB defers to U.S. EPA acceptance; we do not have a separate refrigerant approval program. Q: What about the TFA issue? A: TFA, or trifluoroacetic acid, is a break-down product of HFOs in the atmosphere. TFA is a known toxin to aquatic life. We are monitoring the effects of TFA. So far, water concentrations are below toxic levels.
A few more questions…
Q: Aren’t HFOs just going to be phased out like the other F-gases?A: Yes, if TFA concentrations ever build up to toxic levels. Such conditions would likely take many decades.
Q: Are any refrigerants regulation-proof?A: About 30-40 years from now, think water vapor, air, and magnetic refrigeration.
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Thank you,
Questions?
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SLCP Strategic Plan at:https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm
• Glenn Gallagher (Staff Lead)[email protected]
916-327-8041
• Pamela Gupta (Manager)[email protected]
916-327-0604
SLCP, Contact Information
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