California Air Resources Board - University of California ... ARB Update on HFC Emissions Reductions

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Transcript of California Air Resources Board - University of California ... ARB Update on HFC Emissions Reductions

  • ARB Update on HFC Emissions Reductions Efforts

    California Air Resources Board

    May 2017 Glenn Gallagher

  • The Future of Refrigerants is Low-GWP

    • U.S. EPA SNAP Program, European Union, Kigali Amendment signatories, and ARB agree: Refrigerants will be low-GWP.

    • Very low-GWP or “sort of” low-GWP?

    • When will this happen?

    • Natural or synthetic? 2

  • 3

    Problem: HFC emissions are growing Emission Trends of ODS and ODS substitutes (hydrofluorocarbons) – (as ODS are phased out, HFCs increase)

  • HFC Emissions in CA

    Refrigerants 86%Propellants

    7%

    Insulating foam 6%

    Solvents, fire suppressants

    1%

    5

  • HFC Emissions in CA by Sector

    6

    Commercial Refrigeration

    (> 50 lbs.) 36%

    Commercial Refrigeration

    (< 50 lbs.) 6%

    Commercial AC

    14%

    Residential Refrigeration

    1%

    Residential AC

    10%

    Mobile AC + Transport

    Refrig 19%

    Propellants 7%

    Insulating Foam

    6%

    Solvents, Fire Suppressants

    1%

  • HFC Production/Consumption Global Phasedown Schedule

    6

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

    HF C

    Co ns

    um pt

    io n

    co m

    pa re

    d to

    B as

    el in

    e

    A5 Developed Countries Consumption Cap

    Non-A5 Developing Countries (Group 1) Consumption Cap

    Non-A5 Developing Countries (Group 2: Gulf Coast Countries, India, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan) Consumption Cap

  • Impact of Global Phasedown on California HFC Reduction Goals

    • Phasedown alone will not reach the 40% HFC reductions required in CA by 2030 by Senate Bill 1383

    • Lag time 8-20 years between reductions in production and actual emissions reductions (installed base of existing equipment with slow turnover)

    • Need additional HFC reductions 7

  • 8

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    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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    HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown

    HFC Emissions BAU, No Phasedown, No New Measures

    40% Reductions from CA 2013 BaselineCA Emissions

    Goal 2030

  • 9

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    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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    HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled To California

    HFC Emissions BAU, No Phasedown, No New Measures

    Kigali Amendment HFC Supply (not Emissions)

    40% Reductions from CA 2013 Baseline

    CA Emissions Goal 2030

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    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

    M M

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    HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled to California

    HFC Emissions BAU, No Phasedown, No New Measures

    Kigali Amendment HFC Supply (not Emissions)

    Likely HFC Emissions as Result of Kigali Amendment

    40% Reductions from CA 2013 Baseline

    CA Emissions Goal 2030

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    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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    HFC Projected Emissions (MMTCO2E) in CA 2010 - 2050 with Global HFC Phasedown Scaled to California

    HFC Emissions BAU, No Phasedown, No New Measures

    Kigali Amendment HFC Supply (not Emissions)

    Likely HFC Emissions as Result of Kigali Amendment

    40% Reductions from CA 2013 Baseline

    CA Emissions Goal 2030

    10 Years Too Late

  • HFC Rulemaking to begin Summer 2017

    • Prohibit refrigerants with GWP 150 or greater in new non- residential stationary refrigeration equipment

    • Sales restriction on refrigerants with GWP ≥ 2500; followed four years later by restriction on GWP ≥ 1500

    12

  • HFC Regulations (cont.)

    Potential Exemptions for New Equipment:

    • Refrigeration systems < 50 pounds

    • Very-low temperature < -50° C (-58° F)

    Exemption to High-GWP Sales Restriction:

    • Recycled or reclaimed refrigerants

    13

  • Stationary Air-Conditioning

    14

    ARB has proposed < 750 GWP in new AC systems

    Not in rulemaking 2017 (codes & standards are not ready)

  • To Achieve Lower-GWP for AC, Codes & Standards Must Be Updated

    • Lower-GWP (

  • ARB Next Steps • Continue to work on codes and standards

    updates to allow more low-GWP refrigerants

    • Research contract for low-GWP feasibility of convenience-store size refrigeration

    • Notice of HFC rulemaking Summer 2017

    • Workshops and public input 2017 – 2018

    • Board Approval 2018-2019 16

  • A few questions that ARB hears from end- users somewhat skeptical of the need for low-GWP requirements:

    17

  • If the Refrigerant Does Not Leak or Is Managed Properly, Then What’s the Problem?

    • Leaks happen.

    • Annual leak rates have been reduced, but not all leaks are preventable.

    • End-of-life losses are significant.

    • Use the “better” refrigerant at the start. 18

  • Why GWP Limits? Why Not Set a Performance Standard for “total carbon footprint” of system?

    • Great idea, however …..

    • Difficult to set standards for facilities and systems that differ greatly.

    • What is the right baseline system? R-22, R-404A, R-407A, R-410A?

    • Enforcement challenges anticipated. 19

  • Why not just let the global HFC phase-down work?

    • Takes too long, too much excess GHG emitted in the meantime.

    • California must follow its own HFC reductions regulations (SB 1383) which

    cannot be met through a phase-down alone.

    20

  • 21

    Q: Are HFOs Environmentally Friendly? A: ARB defers to U.S. EPA acceptance; we do not have a separate refrigerant approval program. Q: What about the TFA issue? A: TFA, or trifluoroacetic acid, is a break- down product of HFOs in the atmosphere. TFA is a known toxin to aquatic life. We are monitoring the effects of TFA. So far, water concentrations are below toxic levels.

    A few more questions…

  • Q: Aren’t HFOs just going to be phased out like the other F-gases? A: Yes, if TFA concentrations ever build up to toxic levels. Such conditions would likely take many decades.

    Q: Are any refrigerants regulation-proof? A: About 30-40 years from now, think water vapor, air, and magnetic refrigeration.

    22

  • Thank you,

    Questions?

  • 24

    SLCP Strategic Plan at: https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm

    • Glenn Gallagher (Staff Lead) Glenn.gallagher@arb.ca.gov

    916-327-8041

    • Pamela Gupta (Manager) Pamela.gupta@arb.ca.gov

    916-327-0604

    SLCP, Contact Information

    https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm

    California Air Resources Board��May 2017�Glenn Gallagher The Future of Refrigerants is Low-GWP Problem: HFC emissions are growing HFC Emissions in CA HFC Emissions in CA by Sector HFC Production/Consumption Global Phasedown Schedule Impact of Global Phasedown on California HFC Reduction Goals Slide Number 8 Slide Number 9 Slide Number 10 Slide Number 11 HFC Rulemaking to begin Summer 2017 HFC Regulations (cont.) Stationary Air-Conditioning To Achieve Lower-GWP for AC, Codes & Standards Must Be Updated ARB Next Steps Slide Number 17 If the Refrigerant Does Not Leak or Is Managed Properly, Then What’s the Problem? Why GWP Limits? Why Not Set a Performance Standard for “total carbon footprint” of system? Why not just let the global HFC phase-down work? Slide Number 21 Slide Number 22 Slide Number 23 SLCP, Contact Information