870 million people are chronically undernourished; almost two billion suffer from negative health consequences of micronutrient deficiencies. FAO, 2012
Undernourishment
Data from FAO, 2012
Undernourished population by region
= 100 million people
= undernourished people
North Africa and Near East
POPULATION:502 million
UNDERNOURISHED: 31 million—7.10%
East and Southeast Asia
POPULATION:2.2 billion
UNDERNOURISHED: 233 million—11.30%
Latin America
POPULATION:590 million
UNDERNOURISHED: 49 million—8.30%
Sub-Saharan Africa
POPULATION:873 million
UNDERNOURISHED: 234 million—26.80%
South Asia
POPULATION:1.7 billion
UNDERNOURISHED: 304 million—17.60%
PopulationThe world population, currently 7 billion, is expected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by 2100. UN-DESA, 2011
Data from UN-DESA, 2011
Projected change in world population, 2010–2100
Asia
Africa
Europe
Latin America/Caribbean
North America
Oceania
2010
2050
2100
7.0 billion
9.3 billion
10.1 billion
Dietary changeDiets are expanding and shifting. Sugar, fat, and animal product consumption are increasing in almost all regions of the world—yet people in low- and middle-income countries still consume far less meat and dairy than those in high-income countries. Kastner et al., 2012
Projected change in meat anddairy consumption, 2005 to 2050
MEAT
2005
2050
DIARY
2005
2050
North Africaand Near East
South Asia
Latin Americaand Caribbean
Sub-SaharanAfrica
East Asia
OECD andEastern Europe
KILOGRAMS PER PERSON PER YEAR
0 50 100 150 200 250
+58%
+19%
+62%
+23%
+38%
+25%
+309%
+63%
+61%
+68%
+11%
+10%
ObesityWorldwide, obesity more than doubled between 1980 and 2008. More than 1.4 billion adults—one out of every five—in 2008 were overweight. One out of every ten was obese. WHO, 2012
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Global food demandTo meet global food demand in 2050, agricultural production must be 60 percent higher by weight than in 2005. Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012
F. Fiondella, IRI/CCAFS
Roughly one-third of food produced for human consumption, about 1.3 billion tonnes per year, gets lost or wasted globally—the equivalent of 6 to 10 percent of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.
Gustavsson et al., 2011; Vermeulen et al., 2012 for the calculation on emissions
Food waste
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Global agricultural emissionsAgriculture makes the greatest contribution to total food system emissions. It contributes 7,300 to 12,700 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 80 to 86 percent of food systems emissions and 14 to 24 percent of total global emissions. Vermeulen et al., 2012
Power24%
Land use change*18%
Agriculture14%
Industry14%
Transport14%
Buildings8%
Other energy related5%
Waste3%
PREPRODUCTIONFertilizer manufacture3%
Pesticide production0.6%
Energy use in animal feed production0.5%
PRODUCTIONDirect emissions48.5%
Indirect emissions (deforestation)35%
POSTPRODUCTIONRefrigeration4%
Storage, packaging, and transport3%
Retail activities2%
Primary and secondary production1.5%
Catering and domestic food1.3%
Waste disposal0.6%
Agricultural32%
Enteric fermentation31%
Other emissions19%
Rice cultivation12%
Manure management6%
*Approximately 75% of emissions from land use change are attributed to agriculture.
Breakdown of agricultural emissions
Total global emissions Food system emissions Direct agricultural emissions
Food system emissionsFood system emissions—from production to
consumption—contribute 9,800 to 16,900 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
(MtCO2e) per year, or 19 to 29 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions.
Vermeulen et al., 2012
4,382.5MtCO2e/year
6,111MtCO2e/year
560MtCO2e/year
1,534MtCO2e/year
Indirect emissions (deforestation)
Direct emissions Preproduction Postproduction
35%49% 4% 12%
PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF FOOD SYSTEM EMISSIONSData from Vermeulen et al. 2012; US-EPA,
2011; and Blaser and Robledo, 2007
Direct agricultural emissionsNon-CO2 agricultural emissions are about
6,100 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 11 percent of
total global greenhouse gas emissions and 56 percent of global non-CO2
greenhouse gas emissions.US-EPA, 2011
1,864MtCO2e/year
710MtCO2e/year
1,984MtCO2e/year
1,164MtCO2e/year
Entericfermentation
Ricecultivation
Agricultural soils
Manure management
31% 12% 32% 6%
PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF DIRECT AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS Data from US-EPA, 2011
Other emissions
19%
389MtCO2e/year
Agriculture is the leading cause of some 75 percent of global deforestation. If rates of deforestation continue as projected, forests will diminish dramatically by 2100. Strassbourg et al., 2012; Blaser and Robledo, 2007
Deforestation emissions
Forest cover observed in 2000
Forest cover projected for 2010
Livestock emissionsThe global livestock sector emits almost 6,000 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year at 2008 levels and accounts for about 11 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from the sector are expected to increase 70 percent by 2050. PBL, 2009
Neil Palmer, CIAT
When compared to fossil fuels, manufactured liquid biofuels do not necessarily produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions.
Biofuels
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Impacts on waterBy 2050, climate change will increase extreme drought, especially in the subtropics and low- and mid-latitudes. Increased water stress will impact land areas twice the size of those areas that will experience decreased water stress. Bates et al., 2008
Water scarcity and climate change
WATER SCARCITY CLASSES
Physical water scarcity
Approaching physical water scarcity
Economic water scarcity
Little or no scarcity
No estimation
Drier under climate change
Wetter under climate change
Impacts on cropsGlobal impacts of climate change on yields cannot be estimated due to variation among locations and crop types. But the overall impact on grain is negative—the potential yield loss is about 5 percent for each degree Celsius of global warming. Lobell et al., 2011
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Impacts on livestockLivestock and pastures could become more productive in humid temperate regions as global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, but arid and semi-arid regions could become less productive. Easterling et al., 2007
Zerihun Sewunet, ILRI
Impacts on fisheriesThe impact of climate change on marine fisheries is expected to differ hugely across the major fishing regions—with some regions experiencing a relative decline in catch and others a relative growth. Cheung et al., 2010
Projected change in catch (metric tonnes per square kilometre) from 2005 to 2055
Increase (> 0.005 to 0.50)
Decrease (< –0.50 to –0.005)
Impact on forestsClimate change is already affecting the diversity and productivity of forests and trees on farms through its impact on growing seasons, pest and disease outbreaks and tree population size and distribution. Locatelli et al., 2010
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Many crop yields are expected to decline due to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall and increased climate variability. The outcome may be higher food prices, along with chronic poverty and undernutrition for farming households already battered by climate extremes such as drought and flood. Beddington et al., 2011; Carter and Barrett, 2006
Impact on food security
Olivier Asselin, UNICEF
Water adaptationMaintaining a stable water supply for agriculture requires both demand-side strategies, such as recycling and conserving water, and supply-side strategies, such as water storage. Thornton et al., 2012
Arne Hoel, World Bank
Crop and farming adaptationFarmers must change how and what they grow to adapt to local climate conditions. Depending on the pace of climate change, adaptation could be incremental (e.g. altering planting dates), system-wide (e.g. altering irrigation systems) or transformative (e.g. altering the balance between crops and livestock, or moving out of agriculture altogether). Thornton et al., 2012
Levels of adaptation in relation to benefits from adaptation actions and degree of climate change
Transformational adaptation
Different livelihoodsDifferent production areasDifferent agricultural products and dietsExit from agriculture
Systems adaptation
Climate-adapted breeds and new cropsDiversification of agriculture and livelihoodsGreater use of seasonal and multi-year forecastsMore reliance on insurance and risk management
Incremental adaptation
Shifts in cropping calendarGreater efficiency in use of water and nutrientsMore intensive management of soils and residues
BEN
EFI
T F
RO
M A
DA
PTA
TIO
N
CLIMATE CHANGEAdapted from Rickardand Howden 2012
Livestock adaptationAdaptation for pasture-grazing livestock includes changes in the use and maintenance of pastures and in the mix of livestock breeds. Easterling et al., 2007
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Fisheries and aquaculture adaptationAdaptation strategies for fisheries will vary considerably across the globe—from changing locations to shifting the timing and species of catch—depending on the local impacts of climate change. Grafton, 2009; Cochrane et al., 2009
Georgina Smith
Forest foods play a key role in helping the rural poor cope with seasonal shortages, recurrent climate anomalies and economic downturns. Thornton et al., 2012
Forests and landscape adaptation
Protect natural habitats
Incentives to protect natural forests and grasslands include certification, payment for climate services, securing land tenure rights, and community fire control.
Farm with perennials
Perennial crops, like grasses, palms, and trees, maintain and develop their root system, capture carbon, increase water filtration, and reduce erosion.
Enrich soil carbon
Agricultural soils can be managed to reduce emissions by minimizing tillage, reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizers, preventing erosion, increasing organic matter content, and adding biochar.
Restore degraded watersheds and rangelands
Degradation costs livelihood assets and essential watershed functions; restoration can be a win-win strategy for addressing climate change, rural poverty, and water scarcity.
Livelihoods and food security adaptationEnsuring food security under climate change will require adaptations that address food availability (production and trade), food access (incomes and rights) and food use (culture and health). Ziervogel and Ericksen, 2010
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Agricultural mitigation potentialThe mitigation potential of a suite of agricultural practices that reduce emissions associated with farming and increase carbon storage is estimated to be 1,500 to 1,600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year at a carbon price of USD 20 per tCO2e. The mitigation potential through land use change is estimated to be a further 1,550 MtCO2e per year. Smith et al., 2008
Restoredegraded lands
~135 MtCO2e/year
Grazing land management
~160 MtCO2e/year
Restore cultivated soils
~248 MtCO2e/year
Rice management
~168 MtCO2e/year
Setaside, land use change, and agroforestry
~7 MtCO2e/year
Livestock management
~127 MtCO2e/year
Manuremanagement
~8 MtCO2e/year
Cropland management
~767 MtCO2e/year
Reduced deforestationThe economic potential of global forestry mitigation options is estimated to be between 1,270 and 4,230 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year in 2030 (at carbon prices up to USD 100 per tonne of CO2e). Achieving about half of this mid-range estimate would cost less than USD 20 per tonne of CO2e. Nabuurs et al., 2007; Candell & Raupach, 2008
Douglas Sheil, CIFOR
Sequestering carbon in the soils of croplands, grazing lands and rangelands offers agriculture’s highest potential source of climate change mitigation. These soils can store between 1,500 and 4,500 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year. Smith et al., 2007; FAO, 2011
Soil: carbon sinks
Neil Palmer, CIAT
Integrating mitigation and adaptationIntegrated climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies ensure food security and reduce agriculture’s ecological footprint. Adaptation is a priority for smallholder farmers, who will pursue mitigation when it brings benefits without increasing cost and risk. Jarvis et al., 2011
Potential synergies and trade-offs among food production, mitigation, and adaptation
FOOD PRODUCTION
ADAPTATION MITIGATION
e.g. improved irrigation
infrastructure, weather
forecasting
e.g. use of single
high-yielding variety
e.g. expansion of agricultural land, increased use of mechanization,
fertilizer, and other inputs
e.g. diversification
of crop, livestock, and fisheries
varieties, improved on-farm
and off-farm storage
e.g. reforestation,
decreased livestock
production, agroforestry options that
have low food benefits
e.g. on-farm production and use
of biofuels
Agricultural practices that benefit food
production, adaptation, and mitigation.
e.g. restoration of degraded land,
improvements of soil-macro- and micro-
nutrients
Several caveats apply to this figure:
1. Examples are illustrative, not comprehensive; furthermore, the examples will not apply to all countries, farming systems, or agro-ecological zones.
2. The size and overlay of the circles do not represent either relative potential or degree of overlap.
3. The term “adaptation” refers to approaches and capacities within agriculture, and does not include “getting out of farming,” which may be the most effective adaptation to climate change for farmers in particularly vulnerable contexts.
Policy instruments82 percent of surveyed countries prioritize agriculture in their climate change adaptation plans. But only 8 percent include agriculture in their national mitigation plans. Action Aid, 2011; Wollenberg and Nihart, unpublished
Neil Palmer, CIAT
FinancingThe world community has pledged nearly USD 30 billion to adaptation financing. By 2020, additional financing via the Green Climate Fund—to be equally distributed between mitigation and adaptation—is slated to reach USD 100 billion. Streck et al., 2012
Existing international public and private climate finance sources for agriculture mitigation
International Climate Initiative
(Germany)Norway
Climate and Forest
Initiative
Hatoyama Initiative (Japan)
Environmental Transformation
Fund (UK)
Other bilateral
programs
Global Environment
Facility
Special Climate Change
Fund
Least Developed Countries
Fund
Adaptation Fund(KP)
Climate Investment
Funds
Forest Carbon
Partnership Facility
UN-REDDOther
multilateral financing
Bilateral
Public
MultilateralUNFCCC-mandated
funds
Other climate
funds and programs
PrivateInvestments (Domestic/
FDI)
Carbon markets
Compliance
Voluntary
Processing
Product