Big Facts for Big Decisions

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870 million people are chronically undernourished; almost two billion suffer from negative health consequences of micronutrient deficiencies. FAO, 2012 Undernourishment Data from FAO, 2012 Undernourished population by region = 100 million people = undernourished people North Africa and Near East POPULATION: 502 million UNDERNOURISHED: 31 million—7.10% East and Southeast Asia POPULATION: 2.2 billion UNDERNOURISHED: 233 million—11.30% Latin America POPULATION: 590 million UNDERNOURISHED: 49 million—8.30% Sub-Saharan Africa POPULATION: 873 million UNDERNOURISHED: 234 million—26.80% South Asia POPULATION: 1.7 billion UNDERNOURISHED: 304 million—17.60%

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This presentation accumulates some of the most current and most important knowledge that should be known when dealing with landscapes, climate change or similar issues. The facts include undernourishment, population, dietary change, obesity, global food demand, food waste, agricultural emissions, deforestation emissions, biofuels and the impacts of climate change on water, crops, livestock, fisheries, forests, food security and the different adaptation measures.

Transcript of Big Facts for Big Decisions

Page 1: Big Facts for Big Decisions

870 million people are chronically undernourished; almost two billion suffer from negative health consequences of micronutrient deficiencies. FAO, 2012

Undernourishment

Data from FAO, 2012

Undernourished population by region

= 100 million people

= undernourished people

North Africa and Near East

POPULATION:502 million

UNDERNOURISHED: 31 million—7.10%

East and Southeast Asia

POPULATION:2.2 billion

UNDERNOURISHED: 233 million—11.30%

Latin America

POPULATION:590 million

UNDERNOURISHED: 49 million—8.30%

Sub-Saharan Africa

POPULATION:873 million

UNDERNOURISHED: 234 million—26.80%

South Asia

POPULATION:1.7 billion

UNDERNOURISHED: 304 million—17.60%

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PopulationThe world population, currently 7 billion, is expected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by 2100. UN-DESA, 2011

Data from UN-DESA, 2011

Projected change in world population, 2010–2100

Asia

Africa

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

North America

Oceania

2010

2050

2100

7.0 billion

9.3 billion

10.1 billion

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Dietary changeDiets are expanding and shifting. Sugar, fat, and animal product consumption are increasing in almost all regions of the world—yet people in low- and middle-income countries still consume far less meat and dairy than those in high-income countries. Kastner et al., 2012

Projected change in meat anddairy consumption, 2005 to 2050

MEAT

2005

2050

DIARY

2005

2050

North Africaand Near East

South Asia

Latin Americaand Caribbean

Sub-SaharanAfrica

East Asia

OECD andEastern Europe

KILOGRAMS PER PERSON PER YEAR

0 50 100 150 200 250

+58%

+19%

+62%

+23%

+38%

+25%

+309%

+63%

+61%

+68%

+11%

+10%

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ObesityWorldwide, obesity more than doubled between 1980 and 2008. More than 1.4 billion adults—one out of every five—in 2008 were overweight. One out of every ten was obese. WHO, 2012

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Global food demandTo meet global food demand in 2050, agricultural production must be 60 percent higher by weight than in 2005. Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012

F. Fiondella, IRI/CCAFS

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Roughly one-third of food produced for human consumption, about 1.3 billion tonnes per year, gets lost or wasted globally—the equivalent of 6 to 10 percent of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.

Gustavsson et al., 2011; Vermeulen et al., 2012 for the calculation on emissions

Food waste

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Global agricultural emissionsAgriculture makes the greatest contribution to total food system emissions. It contributes 7,300 to 12,700 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 80 to 86 percent of food systems emissions and 14 to 24 percent of total global emissions. Vermeulen et al., 2012

Power24%

Land use change*18%

Agriculture14%

Industry14%

Transport14%

Buildings8%

Other energy related5%

Waste3%

PREPRODUCTIONFertilizer manufacture3%

Pesticide production0.6%

Energy use in animal feed production0.5%

PRODUCTIONDirect emissions48.5%

Indirect emissions (deforestation)35%

POSTPRODUCTIONRefrigeration4%

Storage, packaging, and transport3%

Retail activities2%

Primary and secondary production1.5%

Catering and domestic food1.3%

Waste disposal0.6%

Agricultural32%

Enteric fermentation31%

Other emissions19%

Rice cultivation12%

Manure management6%

*Approximately 75% of emissions from land use change are attributed to agriculture.

Breakdown of agricultural emissions

Total global emissions Food system emissions Direct agricultural emissions

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Food system emissionsFood system emissions—from production to

consumption—contribute 9,800 to 16,900 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent

(MtCO2e) per year, or 19 to 29 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions.

Vermeulen et al., 2012

4,382.5MtCO2e/year

6,111MtCO2e/year

560MtCO2e/year

1,534MtCO2e/year

Indirect emissions (deforestation)

Direct emissions Preproduction Postproduction

35%49% 4% 12%

PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF FOOD SYSTEM EMISSIONSData from Vermeulen et al. 2012; US-EPA,

2011; and Blaser and Robledo, 2007

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Direct agricultural emissionsNon-CO2 agricultural emissions are about

6,100 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 11 percent of

total global greenhouse gas emissions and 56 percent of global non-CO2

greenhouse gas emissions.US-EPA, 2011

1,864MtCO2e/year

710MtCO2e/year

1,984MtCO2e/year

1,164MtCO2e/year

Entericfermentation

Ricecultivation

Agricultural soils

Manure management

31% 12% 32% 6%

PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF DIRECT AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS Data from US-EPA, 2011

Other emissions

19%

389MtCO2e/year

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Agriculture is the leading cause of some 75 percent of global deforestation. If rates of deforestation continue as projected, forests will diminish dramatically by 2100. Strassbourg et al., 2012; Blaser and Robledo, 2007

Deforestation emissions

Forest cover observed in 2000

Forest cover projected for 2010

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Livestock emissionsThe global livestock sector emits almost 6,000 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year at 2008 levels and accounts for about 11 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from the sector are expected to increase 70 percent by 2050. PBL, 2009

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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When compared to fossil fuels, manufactured liquid biofuels do not necessarily produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions.

Biofuels

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Impacts on waterBy 2050, climate change will increase extreme drought, especially in the subtropics and low- and mid-latitudes. Increased water stress will impact land areas twice the size of those areas that will experience decreased water stress. Bates et al., 2008

Water scarcity and climate change

WATER SCARCITY CLASSES

Physical water scarcity

Approaching physical water scarcity

Economic water scarcity

Little or no scarcity

No estimation

Drier under climate change

Wetter under climate change

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Impacts on cropsGlobal impacts of climate change on yields cannot be estimated due to variation among locations and crop types. But the overall impact on grain is negative—the potential yield loss is about 5 percent for each degree Celsius of global warming. Lobell et al., 2011

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Impacts on livestockLivestock and pastures could become more productive in humid temperate regions as global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, but arid and semi-arid regions could become less productive. Easterling et al., 2007

Zerihun Sewunet, ILRI

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Impacts on fisheriesThe impact of climate change on marine fisheries is expected to differ hugely across the major fishing regions—with some regions experiencing a relative decline in catch and others a relative growth. Cheung et al., 2010

Projected change in catch (metric tonnes per square kilometre) from 2005 to 2055

Increase (> 0.005 to 0.50)

Decrease (< –0.50 to –0.005)

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Impact on forestsClimate change is already affecting the diversity and productivity of forests and trees on farms through its impact on growing seasons, pest and disease outbreaks and tree population size and distribution. Locatelli et al., 2010

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Many crop yields are expected to decline due to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall and increased climate variability. The outcome may be higher food prices, along with chronic poverty and undernutrition for farming households already battered by climate extremes such as drought and flood. Beddington et al., 2011; Carter and Barrett, 2006

Impact on food security

Olivier Asselin, UNICEF

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Water adaptationMaintaining a stable water supply for agriculture requires both demand-side strategies, such as recycling and conserving water, and supply-side strategies, such as water storage. Thornton et al., 2012

Arne Hoel, World Bank

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Crop and farming adaptationFarmers must change how and what they grow to adapt to local climate conditions. Depending on the pace of climate change, adaptation could be incremental (e.g. altering planting dates), system-wide (e.g. altering irrigation systems) or transformative (e.g. altering the balance between crops and livestock, or moving out of agriculture altogether). Thornton et al., 2012

Levels of adaptation in relation to benefits from adaptation actions and degree of climate change

Transformational adaptation

Different livelihoodsDifferent production areasDifferent agricultural products and dietsExit from agriculture

Systems adaptation

Climate-adapted breeds and new cropsDiversification of agriculture and livelihoodsGreater use of seasonal and multi-year forecastsMore reliance on insurance and risk management

Incremental adaptation

Shifts in cropping calendarGreater efficiency in use of water and nutrientsMore intensive management of soils and residues

BEN

EFI

T F

RO

M A

DA

PTA

TIO

N

CLIMATE CHANGEAdapted from Rickardand Howden 2012

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Livestock adaptationAdaptation for pasture-grazing livestock includes changes in the use and maintenance of pastures and in the mix of livestock breeds. Easterling et al., 2007

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Fisheries and aquaculture adaptationAdaptation strategies for fisheries will vary considerably across the globe—from changing locations to shifting the timing and species of catch—depending on the local impacts of climate change. Grafton, 2009; Cochrane et al., 2009

Georgina Smith

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Forest foods play a key role in helping the rural poor cope with seasonal shortages, recurrent climate anomalies and economic downturns. Thornton et al., 2012

Forests and landscape adaptation

Protect natural habitats

Incentives to protect natural forests and grasslands include certification, payment for climate services, securing land tenure rights, and community fire control.

Farm with perennials

Perennial crops, like grasses, palms, and trees, maintain and develop their root system, capture carbon, increase water filtration, and reduce erosion.

Enrich soil carbon

Agricultural soils can be managed to reduce emissions by minimizing tillage, reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizers, preventing erosion, increasing organic matter content, and adding biochar.

Restore degraded watersheds and rangelands

Degradation costs livelihood assets and essential watershed functions; restoration can be a win-win strategy for addressing climate change, rural poverty, and water scarcity.

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Livelihoods and food security adaptationEnsuring food security under climate change will require adaptations that address food availability (production and trade), food access (incomes and rights) and food use (culture and health). Ziervogel and Ericksen, 2010

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Agricultural mitigation potentialThe mitigation potential of a suite of agricultural practices that reduce emissions associated with farming and increase carbon storage is estimated to be 1,500 to 1,600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year at a carbon price of USD 20 per tCO2e. The mitigation potential through land use change is estimated to be a further 1,550 MtCO2e per year. Smith et al., 2008

Restoredegraded lands

~135 MtCO2e/year

Grazing land management

~160 MtCO2e/year

Restore cultivated soils

~248 MtCO2e/year

Rice management

~168 MtCO2e/year

Setaside, land use change, and agroforestry

~7 MtCO2e/year

Livestock management

~127 MtCO2e/year

Manuremanagement

~8 MtCO2e/year

Cropland management

~767 MtCO2e/year

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Reduced deforestationThe economic potential of global forestry mitigation options is estimated to be between 1,270 and 4,230 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year in 2030 (at carbon prices up to USD 100 per tonne of CO2e). Achieving about half of this mid-range estimate would cost less than USD 20 per tonne of CO2e. Nabuurs et al., 2007; Candell & Raupach, 2008

Douglas Sheil, CIFOR

Page 27: Big Facts for Big Decisions

Sequestering carbon in the soils of croplands, grazing lands and rangelands offers agriculture’s highest potential source of climate change mitigation. These soils can store between 1,500 and 4,500 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year. Smith et al., 2007; FAO, 2011

Soil: carbon sinks

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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Integrating mitigation and adaptationIntegrated climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies ensure food security and reduce agriculture’s ecological footprint. Adaptation is a priority for smallholder farmers, who will pursue mitigation when it brings benefits without increasing cost and risk. Jarvis et al., 2011

Potential synergies and trade-offs among food production, mitigation, and adaptation

FOOD PRODUCTION

ADAPTATION MITIGATION

e.g. improved irrigation

infrastructure, weather

forecasting

e.g. use of single

high-yielding variety

e.g. expansion of agricultural land, increased use of mechanization,

fertilizer, and other inputs

e.g. diversification

of crop, livestock, and fisheries

varieties, improved on-farm

and off-farm storage

e.g. reforestation,

decreased livestock

production, agroforestry options that

have low food benefits

e.g. on-farm production and use

of biofuels

Agricultural practices that benefit food

production, adaptation, and mitigation.

e.g. restoration of degraded land,

improvements of soil-macro- and micro-

nutrients

Several caveats apply to this figure:

1. Examples are illustrative, not comprehensive; furthermore, the examples will not apply to all countries, farming systems, or agro-ecological zones.

2. The size and overlay of the circles do not represent either relative potential or degree of overlap.

3. The term “adaptation” refers to approaches and capacities within agriculture, and does not include “getting out of farming,” which may be the most effective adaptation to climate change for farmers in particularly vulnerable contexts.

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Policy instruments82 percent of surveyed countries prioritize agriculture in their climate change adaptation plans. But only 8 percent include agriculture in their national mitigation plans. Action Aid, 2011; Wollenberg and Nihart, unpublished

Neil Palmer, CIAT

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FinancingThe world community has pledged nearly USD 30 billion to adaptation financing. By 2020, additional financing via the Green Climate Fund—to be equally distributed between mitigation and adaptation—is slated to reach USD 100 billion. Streck et al., 2012

Existing international public and private climate finance sources for agriculture mitigation

International Climate Initiative

(Germany)Norway

Climate and Forest

Initiative

Hatoyama Initiative (Japan)

Environmental Transformation

Fund (UK)

Other bilateral

programs

Global Environment

Facility

Special Climate Change

Fund

Least Developed Countries

Fund

Adaptation Fund(KP)

Climate Investment

Funds

Forest Carbon

Partnership Facility

UN-REDDOther

multilateral financing

Bilateral

Public

MultilateralUNFCCC-mandated

funds

Other climate

funds and programs

PrivateInvestments (Domestic/

FDI)

Carbon markets

Compliance

Voluntary

Processing

Product