ANNUAL STAT PACK Data through December 31, 2012
ANNUAL RESIDENTIAL REVIEW
Welcome to the ERA Shields Stat Pack. The intention for providing this infor-mation to you is to educate you on the current local real estate market so you can better make decisions for you and your family. Real estate markets vary from city to city as well as neighborhood to neighborhood. When the national media reports on how the real estate market is doing, it is reporting on national num-bers and it is likely very different from how your neighborhood is performing. You will find factual data within The Stat Pack from which you may draw your own conclusions. On the last page you will find a brief summary.
QUICK FACTS ABOUT 2012 ⇒ The number of Active Listings for the year was down nearly 10,000 ⇒ The number of Sales for the year were up 708 units (over 8% increase) ⇒ 823 more Single Family Building Permits were pulled in 2012 (50%+ increase) ⇒ The Average Inventory Level was just 4.2 months in 2012 ⇒ The Average Sales Price was up nearly 5% while Median Sales Price jumped 7% ⇒ 67% of sales in this year were under $250K compared to 72% in 2011 ⇒ Foreclosure starts dropped another 4%
The data found within the ERA Shields Real Estate Stat Pack is based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR® Services Corporation (RSC) or its PPMLS. This content is deemed reliable; however RSC, PPMLS and ERA Shields Real Estate do not guarantee its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC does not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Additional sources include the Colorado Springs EDC, El Paso County Assessor, El Paso County Trustee, Colorado Springs HBA, PPAR, The Gazette, The CSBJ and NAR.
QUICK LOOK AT 2013 ⇒ Number of sales will approach 10,000 for the time in 7 years ⇒ The number of under contracts hit 1337 (up 20%) and highest number by far in past 5 years ⇒ Sales prices will continue to increase at a sustainable rate (5% range) ⇒ Single Family Building Permits will increase but at a more sustainable rate ⇒ The number of homes on the market will increase ⇒ Inventory rate will bump slightly ⇒ Higher price ranges will continue to awaken from their deep slumber ⇒ Foreclosure starts continue their steady decline ⇒ Mortgage rates will actually bump-up from their historic lows
QUARTERLY PRICING TOOLS Determine how your neighborhood is performing
3-Month Area Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart is ideal for helping you determine how your neighborhood is doing. If you are considering
selling your home, this information is just one tool you can reference to assist you with pricing your home strategically. Call me if you need assistance utilizing this graph.
*Inventory = The number of months it would take to sell through the current active listings at the current sales rate if no other homes came on the market.
**DOM = Days on Market for the homes which actually sold.
For October 1, 2012 - December 31, 2012
Area Listings Solds DOM Inventory Avg List $ Avg Sales $ Black Forest 103 41 77 7.5 $ 517,706 $ 431,318
Briargate 158 137 75 3.5 $ 327,836 $ 300,601
Calhan 23 9 56 7.7 $ 176,522 $ 104,089
Central 160 116 63 4.1 $ 208,225 $ 157,273
Drennan 11 6 106 5.5 $ 122,273 $ 94,317
East 120 147 72 2.4 $ 208,175 $ 184,695 Ellicott 28 11 134 7.6 $ 192,957 $ 181,230 Falcon 45 26 96 5.2 $ 257,510 $ 174,192
Falcon North 151 107 85 4.2 $ 275,562 $ 251,662 Fountain Valley 307 307 74 3.0 $ 206,562 $ 178,182
Manitou 24 12 103 6.0 $ 409,973 $ 313,113
Marksheffel 50 29 77 5.2 $ 267,137 $ 214,934
Midway 8 6 122 4.0 $ 196,388 $ 114,850
Northeast 158 216 66 2.2 $ 262,384 $ 217,817
Northgate 96 88 74 3.3 $ 471,365 $ 340,957
Northwest 81 67 83 3.6 $ 437,952 $ 301,951 Old Colorado
City 52 42 63 3.7 $ 225,766 $ 176,549
Peyton 30 12 79 7.5 $ 299,122 $ 264,324
Powers 149 205 73 2.2 $ 229,106 $ 206,236
Rock Creek 6 2 266 9.0 $ 797,000 $ 407,250
Southeast 142 116 60 3.7 $ 135,000 $ 127,545
Southwest 199 133 86 4.5 $ 678,986 $ 361,838
Tri Lakes 165 117 100 4.2 $ 502,716 $ 383,914
Ute Pass 31 10 115 9.3 $ 420,358 $ 251,660
West 59 51 44 3.5 $ 583,319 $ 256,740
Divide 45 29 130 4.7 $ 480,142 $ 269,009
Woodland Park 72 49 78 4.4 $ 389,572 $ 285,906
QUARTERLY PRICING TOOLS Determine how your neighborhood is performing
3-Month Price Range Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart is ideal for helping you determine how your neighborhood is doing. If you are considering selling your home, this information is just one tool you can reference to assist you with pricing your
home strategically. If you have questions on how to properly use this data, call me.
List Price Active Listings Solds Days on Market Inventory
Supply Demand Days to Sell Months
Under $75,000 84 50 91 5.0
$75,000 to $99,999 135 91 79 4.5
$100,000 to $124,999 189 108 104 5.3
$125,000 to $149,999 340 170 110 6.0
$150,000 to $174,999 343 247 98 4.2
$175,000 to $199,999 385 233 101 5.0
$200,000 to $224,999 280 191 87 4.4
$225,000 to $249,999 309 193 100 4.8
$250,000 to $274,999 219 129 103 5.1
$275,000 to $299,999 189 114 118 5.0
$300,000 to $324,999 118 69 109 5.1
$325,000 to $349,999 154 81 129 5.7
$350,000 to $374,999 92 55 105 5.0
$375,000 to $399,999 134 49 116 8.2
$400,000 to $424,999 65 29 103 6.7
$425,000 to $449,999 78 31 130 7.5
$450,000 to $474,999 47 20 152 7.1
$475,000 to $499,999 64 27 141 7.1
$500,000 to $549,999 61 14 101 13.1
$550,000 to $599,999 50 24 155 6.3
$600,000 to $649,999 38 9 152 12.7
$650,000 to $699,999 35 15 222 7.0
$700,000 to $749,999 18 3 145 18.0
$750,000 to $799,999 27 5 148 16.2
$800,000 to $849,999 8 4 304 6.0
$850,000 to $899,999 22 2 350 33.0
$900,000 to $949,999 5 0 n/a n/a
$950,000 to $999,999 10 1 112 30.0
$1 mil to $1.50 mil 50 6 109 25.0
$1.5 mil to $2.0 mil 15 1 126 45.0
$2.0 mil & above 9 0 n/a n/a
ANNUAL PRICING TOOLS Determine how your neighborhood is performing
12-Month Area Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart is ideal for helping you determine how your neighborhood is doing. If you are considering
selling your home, this information is just one tool you can reference to assist you with pricing your home strategically. Call me if you need assistance utilizing this graph.
*Inventory = The number of months it would take to sell through the current active listings at the current sales rate if no other homes came on the market.
**DOM = Days on Market for the homes which actually sold.
For The Year 2012
Area Listings Solds DOM Inventory Avg List $ Avg Sales $ Black Forest 103 187 112 6.6 $ 517,706 $ 398,793
Briargate 158 611 76 3.1 $ 327,836 $ 291,569
Calhan 23 32 86 8.6 $ 176,522 $ 108,933
Central 160 593 73 3.2 $ 208,225 $ 171,154
Drennan 11 22 144 6.0 $ 122,273 $ 90,371
East 120 593 74 2.4 $ 208,175 $ 173,007 Ellicott 28 52 105 6.5 $ 192,957 $ 151,558 Falcon 45 90 95 6.0 $ 257,510 $ 184,154
Falcon North 151 384 83 4.7 $ 275,562 $ 246,183 Fountain Valley 307 1155 71 3.2 $ 206,562 $ 175,220
Manitou 24 62 132 4.6 $ 409,973 $ 279,078
Marksheffel 50 115 71 5.2 $ 267,137 $ 214,331
Midway 8 20 134 4.8 $ 196,388 $ 178,920
Northeast 158 829 71 2.3 $ 262,384 $ 217,152
Northgate 96 345 81 3.3 $ 471,365 $ 357,980
Northwest 81 324 82 3.0 $ 437,952 $ 315,296 Old Colorado
City 52 184 80 3.4 $ 225,766 $ 172,450
Peyton 30 52 118 6.9 $ 299,122 $ 229,117
Powers 149 898 73 2.0 $ 229,106 $ 200,432
Rock Creek 6 8 180 9.0 $ 675,500 $ 245,500
Southeast 142 510 67 3.3 $ 139,968 $ 125,596
Southwest 199 487 97 4.9 $ 678,986 $ 338,953
Tri Lakes 165 456 100 4.3 $ 502,716 $ 385,458
Ute Pass 31 39 107 9.5 $ 420,358 $ 205,231
West 59 177 73 4.0 $ 583,319 $ 270,811
Divide 45 121 111 4.5 $ 480,142 $ 209,763
Woodland Park 72 192 97 4.5 $ 389,572 $ 270,059
ANNUAL PRICING TOOLS Determine how your neighborhood is performing
12-Month Price Range Comparisons for Single Family & Patio Homes This chart is ideal for helping you determine how your neighborhood is doing. If you are considering selling your home, this information is just one tool you can reference to assist you with pricing your
home strategically. If you have questions on how to properly use this data, call me.
List Price Active Listings Solds Days on Market Inventory
Supply Demand Days to Sell Months
Under $75,000 84 209 104 4.8
$75,000 to $99,999 135 394 70 4.1
$100,000 to $124,999 189 515 81 4.4
$125,000 to $149,999 340 830 78 4.9
$150,000 to $174,999 343 961 67 4.3
$175,000 to $199,999 385 984 69 4.7
$200,000 to $224,999 280 712 65 4.7
$225,000 to $249,999 309 796 74 4.7
$250,000 to $274,999 219 513 77 5.1
$275,000 to $299,999 189 472 86 4.8
$300,000 to $324,999 118 304 89 4.7
$325,000 to $349,999 154 322 95 5.7
$350,000 to $374,999 92 218 78 5.1
$375,000 to $399,999 134 227 94 7.1
$400,000 to $424,999 65 109 101 7.2
$425,000 to $449,999 78 133 98 7.0
$450,000 to $474,999 47 69 95 8.2
$475,000 to $499,999 64 88 106 8.7
$500,000 to $549,999 61 83 84 8.8
$550,000 to $599,999 50 88 133 6.8
$600,000 to $649,999 38 38 133 12.0
$650,000 to $699,999 35 46 109 9.1
$700,000 to $749,999 18 16 84 13.5
$750,000 to $799,999 27 20 110 16.2
$800,000 to $849,999 8 8 195 12.0
$850,000 to $899,999 22 16 241 16.5
$900,000 to $949,999 5 4 236 15.0 $950,000 to $999,999 10 3 263 40.0 $1 mil to $1.50 mil 50 21 206 28.6
$1.5 mil to $2.0 mil 15 6 310 30.0
$2.0 mil & above 9 2 346 54.0
INVENTORY DATA COMPARING DATA FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
These graphs compares the number of homes on the market to the number of sales and determines how many months it would take to sell through the current listing inventory. Most economists consider 6 months to be a balanced market. As you can easily decipher, the inventory levels are actually too low.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
4.4
5.3
7.9
5.8
10.0
8.8
6.5
4.14.1
5.05.6
Quarterly AverageMonths of Inventory
0123456789
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
4.7
6.3
7.77.0
8.8
7.6
5.4
3.94.45.14.8
Annual AverageMonths of Inventory
SOLD DATA COMPARING DATA FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
22372054
1802
2190
1643
2034
2451
30302789
23112126
Quarterly Sales
30004000500060007000800090001000011000120001300014000
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
91478439
81858745
8339
9995
11911
13124
11746
102049750
Annual Sales
These graphs show the total number of Solds. The results from the 4th Quarter are exactly where we hoped they would be. For the market to be at a healthy sales rate, the annual number of Solds should be around 10,000. in 2013 we will hit this barrier.
PRICING DATA COMPARING DATA FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
Average
Median
The Average & Median Sales Prices for the same month over the past 10 years. The “bubble” is rather noticeable in 2004‐2009. When looking at the Annual graph below you can quickly pick out the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit of 2010. If
you were waiting for home prices to bottom out, they did in 2009 & 2011.
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
Average
Meidan
Quarterly Sales Prices
Annual Sales Prices
ODDS DATA COMPARING DATA FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
The price range your home is within dictates your odds of selling. Generally, the lower your price, the more potential buyers. Despite the low inventory levels, the vast major‐ity of sellers don’t sell. The homes priced right and in excellent condition are successful.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Und
er $75
,000
$75,00
0 to $99
,999
$100
,000
to $12
4,99
9$1
25,000
to $14
9,99
9$1
50,000
to $17
4,99
9$1
75,000
to $19
9,99
9$2
00,000
to $22
4,99
9$2
25,000
to $24
9,99
9$2
50,000
to $27
4,99
9$2
75,000
to $29
9,99
9$3
00,000
to $32
4,99
9$3
25,000
to $34
9,99
9$3
50,000
to $37
4,99
9$3
75,000
to $39
9,99
9$4
00,000
to $42
4,99
9$4
25,000
to $44
9,99
9$4
50,000
to $47
4,99
9$4
75,000
to $49
9,99
9$5
00,000
to $54
9,99
9$5
50,000
to $59
9,99
9$6
00,000
to $64
9,99
9$6
50,000
to $69
9,99
9$7
00,000
to $74
9,99
9$7
50,000
to $79
9,99
9$8
00,000
to $84
9,99
9$8
50,000
to $89
9,99
9$9
00,000
to $94
9,99
9$9
50,000
to $99
9,99
9$1
mil to $1.50
mil
$1.5 mil to $2.0 mil
$2.0 mil & abo
ve
Annual Odds of Selling
Quarterly Odds of Selling
ANNUAL DATA COMPARING DATA FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
Foreclosures continue to improve but need to be closer to the 2500 mark. Building Starts jumped over 50% from 2011, obviously that is not sustainable.
2013 New Home Starts
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
20122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
Foreclosure Starts Forecast
SUMMARY OF 2012
If we could bottle up 2012, we would. The type of growth we saw in just about every sector of the residential real estate market was positive and sustainable; sales prices up 5%, sales rates were solid, building permits up, and foreclosures down. Perhaps the most exciting part of all this good news is most of these occurred at sustainable rates. The main driver for the year’s performance was again historically low mortgage rates. How‐ever, the second half of 2012 actually saw consumer confidence improve and when you com‐bine this new found confidence with the historically low mortgage rates, you see the market show real signs of health. Additionally, buyers actually showed up and started buying homes. Over the past several years the buyers in the market were looking for both screaming deals and incentives (tax breaks, down‐payment assistance, closing costs paid, etc…). In 2012 buyers began to realize they no longer had the advantage (especially in the $400,000 and below market) and actually started looking for values which the few sellers that were out there provided just that. The sellers who were able to avoid being a distressed sale (foreclosure or short sale) had to make tough financial decisions in recent years. Those solid decisions along with actual appre‐ciation on their home in 2012 began to give these homeowners hope. It also made for some lively negotiation during the year as buyers were still thinking they had the advantage when in fact most did not. One of the most surprising results from 2012 had to be the jump in new home construction. In 2011, 1563 new homes were started and in 2012 that number jumped 52% to 2380. Despite the large jump, this number is still low when you consider how many people live in the area. As 2012 closed the numbers in all sectors really strengthened, perhaps the most notable being the number of homes currently under contract. With over 1300 transactions in progress, the residential real estate market leaves 2012 with quite a fireworks show.
2013 FORECAST As 2013 rolls in, the prospects for residential real estate in the Pikes Peak region are very promising. The performance of the real estate market in 2012 was trending up in all categories and more importantly at sustainable rates. Now with consumer confidence rising in the real estate sector it makes sense these trends will continue well into 2013. Since 2007, builders have seen a major downturn in the number of new homes started. During this timeframe the need for housing has only increased due to natural population growth and the continued national trend of people moving out of rural areas. New home build‐ers will see significant increases in 2013 with the number of units built. With the vast majority of these builders being local, it is likely they will manage this opportunity well. The days of the big national builders overbuilding in our market are not likely to return anytime soon as none of them have much presence any longer. The younger generations (X & Y) will continue to show their approval of owning a home. Those lucky enough to have a career job, are being paid well and they like the idea of owning a home. They also see real estate as a viable long‐term investment to pay for their kid’s college and as a vehicle to retirement. The move‐up buyers will play a major role in 2013 as home values are low but rising. They realize that their $200,000 home may have lost 15% of its value ($30,000) but so did that $400,000 home ($60,000). With rates still insanely low and home prices increasing these buyers will realize the opportunity. The Baby Boomers will again make an impression. Many rightfully put off “right‐sizing” over the past 6+ years due to the poor market. Now this group is able & willing to act on their want for main‐level living. Don’t confuse “right‐sizing” with “down‐sizing”, most of this group will purchase a home similar in price and/or size, the only thing they don’t want is stairs. The lone concern out there in 2013 is mortgage rates. If rates were to unexpectedly bump up to 5% over the next year it would injure the housing recovery in coming years. It is crazy to think how homeowners just a few years ago use to think a rate at or below 7% was excellent. Expect an impressive performance by the local residential real estate market this year.
Top Related