2013 Annual Market Forecast

69
2013 Annual Market Forecast Global Market Forecast & Outlook Electronic Arts HQ, Redwood City, CA 17 January 2013

description

2013 Annual Market Forecast. Global Market Forecast & Outlook Electronic Arts HQ, Redwood City, CA . 17 January 2013. 2012-13 Economic Headlines. Google Searches for ‘Economic Forecasts’. 2013. Perspective - Top 10 Google Searches for 2012. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Page 1: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

2013 Annual Market ForecastGlobal Market Forecast & Outlook

Electronic Arts HQ, Redwood City, CA

17 January 2013

Page 2: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

2012-13 Economic Headlines

Page 3: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Google Searches for ‘Economic Forecasts’

2013

Page 4: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Top 10 Worldwide Top 10 USA

1. Whitney Houston 1. Whitney Houston

2. Gangnam Style 2. Hurricane Sandy

3. Hurricane Sandy 3. 2012 US Election

4. iPad 3 4. Hunger Games

5. Diablo 3* 5. Jeremy Lin*

6. Kate Middleton 6. Olympics 2012

7. Olympics 2012 7. Amanda Todd

8. Amanda Todd* 8. Gangnam Style

9. Michael Clarke Duncan* 9. Michael Clarke Duncan

10 BBB 12* 10. KONY 2012*

Perspective - Top 10 Google Searches for 2012

Source: http://www.google.com/zeitgeist/2012/#the-world

Page 5: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

5

• EMEA – Dr. Lee Elliott– Head of EMEA Research, Jones Lang LaSalle

• APAC – Mr. Hans Vrensen– Global Head of Research, DTZ

• Americas – Ms. Brook Scott– Head of Americas Occupier Research, CBRE

• San Francisco Bay Area – Ms. Maria Sicola– Executive Managing Director of Research, Cushman & Wakefield

• Moderator – Mr. Sven Pole– Executive Vice President, Global Corporate Services, CBRE

Speakers & Agenda

Page 6: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

6

• Macroeconomic Indicators By Region• Labor Market Outlook By Region • Commercial Office Markets

– Supply/Demand– Vacancy vs. Net Absorption– Rental Rates– Market Cycles

• Market Strategies & Opportunities• Key Trends in 2013

Format of Presentations

Page 7: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Europe, Middle East, AfricaDr. Lee Elliott - Head of EMEA Research, Jones Lang LaSalle

Page 8: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

8

Macro Economic Indicators By Region

Page 9: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Macro Economic Indicators By RegionGDP % YoY 1981-2016

Page 10: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Macro Economic Indicators By Region

< 0%0.0 – 0.9%1.0 – 1.9%2.0 – 2.9%

> 3.0%

1.0%

0.5%

1.2%

-2.0%-0.5%

3.4%

4.2%

1.1%

2.4%

1.0%

0.7%

0.8%

0.8%

0.4%

Source: Consensus Economics, October 2012

0.5%

-2.0%

2.0%

-3.4%

1.0%

1.8%

2.5%

GDP Growth Forecast 2013

Page 11: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Macro Economic Indicators By Region

Sudden recovery (10%)

Muddling along (60%)

Disorderly deterioration (30%)

(but nightmare case <10%)

Plus ça change – Eurozone crisis is still key threatSome improvements, but underlying problems remain

Page 12: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Labor Market Outlook By Region

Source: European Commission, November 2012

Fragile corporate confidence persists

Page 13: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Labor Market Outlook By Region

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4Sp

ain

Czec

h Re

publ

ic

Russ

ia

Irela

nd

Euro

zone Italy

Neth

erla

nds

Euro

pean

Uni

on

Belg

ium UK

Fran

ce

Finl

and

Ger

man

y

Swed

en

Pola

nd

Hun

gary

Turk

ey

2001-11 2012-13 2014-16Source: Oxford Economics

Page 14: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Markets – Supply / Demand

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Q3 2

000

Q3 2

001

Q3 2

002

Q3 2

003

Q3 2

004

Q3 2

005

Q3 2

006

Q3 2

007

Q3 2

008

Q3 2

009

Q3 2

010

Q3 2

011

Q3 2

012

CEEWestern EuropeTotal

in ‘0

00 s

q m

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2012

Net absorption positive but moderate through 2012

Page 15: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Market – Vacancy vs. Absorption

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (F)

2013 (F)

2014 (F)

2015 (F)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Completions (000 sq m) Take-up (000 sq m) Vacancy Rate (%)

Take

-up

/ Com

plet

ions

(000

sq

m)

Vaca

ncy

Rate

%

Completion volumes weak, forecast to improve but with downside risk

Page 16: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Market – Vacancy vs. Absorption

21.519.4

15.815.6

13.913.313.113.1

11.911.411.31110.710.710.7

8.68.48.18.17.9

65.354.9

4.1

0 5 10 15 20

BudapestDublin

RotterdamAmsterdamBarcelona

MoscowFrankfurt/M

UtrechtPragueMadrid

DusseldorfThe Hague

BrusselsMilan

StockholmMunich

BerlinHamburg

WarsawLondon-CityLuxembourg

Paris-LDFParis-CBD

LyonLondon-WE

Q3 2012 (%) Q4 2014 (%)

14.918.5

16.214.6

13.512.5

14.313.0

10.99.8

12.613.5

10.112.0

9.38.3

9.08.28.5

4.64.5

8.94.45.0

3.3

0 5 10 15 20

BudapestDublin

RotterdamAmsterdamBarcelona

MoscowFrankfurt

UtrechtPragueMadrid

DusseldorfThe Hague

BrusselsMilan

StockholmMunich

BerlinHamburg

WarsawLondon-CityLuxembourg

Paris-LDFParis-CBD

LyonLondon-WE

-660-90

40-100

-40-80

120-10

-100-160

130250

-60130

-140-30

6010

40-330

-150360

-6010

-80

-1000 -500 0 500

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2012

Europe 9.7% Europe 9.5%

Page 17: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Market – Rental Rates

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, October 2012

Lond

on-W

E

Mos

cow

Paris

Lond

on-C

ity

Stoc

khol

m

Mila

n

Rom

e

Fran

kfur

t/M

Ista

nbul

Amst

erda

m

Kiev

Dubl

in

War

saw

Mad

rid

Brus

sels

Prag

ue

Buda

pest

Buch

ares

t

Lisb

on

Barc

elon

a

0102030405060708090

100 13%

8%15%

20%

0%

17% 13%13%

5% 22% 7% 12% 16% 17% 10% 12% 16%7% 4% 17%

Effective Rent Prime Rent % = Average Incentives as % of Prime Rent

Rent

U

S$/ ft

² pa

Prime Rents & Effective Rents 2012 Q3

Page 18: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Market – Rental RatesWestern EuropeCentral and Eastern EuropeMiddle East and Africa

Johannesburg, Luxembourg Lisbon, Newcastle, Rome, Belgrade

Budapest, MadridBarcelona, Brussels, Dublin, TunisBirmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Leeds, Malmo, Istanbul, Dubai, Kiev, Tri-City, Bucharest, Bratislava, Prague

Manchester

Western Corridor

Krakow

Munich

Abu Dhabi, Doha, Muscat, Riyadh

Kuwait City, Zagreb

Stockholm, Düsseldorf, Moscow

Antwerp, Athens, Nottingham, Jeddah, Cairo, Manama

Gothenburg Southampton, Liverpool

Copenhagen

Berlin, Cologne, Lyon, Casablanca

Amsterdam, Eindhoven, Geneva,Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht

Oslo, Stuttgart, Rabat

Paris CBD, London West End

Rental GrowthSlowing

RentsFalling

Rental GrowthAccelerating

RentsBottoming Out

Milan

Algiers

Hamburg

Warsaw

Tel Aviv

Zurich Helsinki, London City

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, October 2012

Page 19: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Market – Market Cycles2013 2014 2015

AmsterdamDublinFrankfurt London CityLondon West EndMadridMilanMoscowParis CBDPragueStockholm Warsaw

Balanced Market Conditions

Tenant Favourable Market Conditions

Landlord Favourable Market Conditions

Page 20: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Market Strategies & Opportunities

1. Raising the productivity of people and places as well as managing cost

2. Leveraging technology and analytics to enhance decision making / strategy

3. Securing scarce investment capital from within the business

4. Attracting and retaining talent

5. Managing mobility – functional and worker mobility

Page 21: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Key Trends in 2013

Confidence to steadily rebuild over H1. Selective strategic investment in H2 including M&A

Enhancing productive through transformation. Selective platform building esp Africa

Moderate though improving in H2 and tipping market conditions away from occupiers

Polarised supply side with acute lack of transformative space and no respite from the pipeline

1st movers protected from significant rental uplifts. Laggards hit hard. It’s about more than rents

Operating Environment

CRE Agenda

Competition

Choice

Cost

Page 22: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Asia PacificMr. Hans Vrensen - Global Head of Research, DTZ

Page 23: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• Global economic overview• Asia Pacific market update• Downside scenario analysis• Conclusions

Contents

Page 24: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Asia Pacific keeps going, but mind the range

Source: Oxford Economics

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Eurozone

USA

Asia Pacific

Japan

Australia

Taiwan

South Korea

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Thailand

Singapore

Indonesia

India

China

Q4 2011 forecast Q4 2012 forecast

Real GDP

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

Eurozone

USA

Asia Pacific

Japan

Australia

Taiwan

South Korea

Malaysia

Hong Kong

Thailand

Singapore

Indonesia

India

China

Q4 2011 forecast Q4 2012 forecast

EmploymentAverage GDP and employment growth by country

Page 25: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Probability of multiple EU exit at highest level ever

Source: Oxford Economics

10%

5%

45%

50% 10%

15%

10%

20%

5%

10%

20%

Jan 12

Apr 12

Jul 12

Oct 12

Corporate Reawakening Base Case Fiscal CliffOil Price Spike China Hard Landing Greek ExitMultiple Eurozone Exit

Estimated scenario probabilities

Page 26: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Downside scenario will have lasting impact on all regions

Source: Oxford Economics

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

EU27 USA APAC

Upside Base Case Downside

Average GDP growth 2013-17

Page 27: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Low government bonds yields mean low hurdle rate for property

Source: Oxford Economics

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Italy (base case) US (base case) Japan (base case)Italy (downside) US (downside) Japan (downside)

10 year government bond yield

Italy

Italy

USUS

Japan

Selected government bond yields

Page 28: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Risk appetite remains strong for corporate bond yields

Source: Bloomberg

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

A BBB*

USA EUROZONE Japan

(*Not available for Japan)

Composite corporate bond yields

Page 29: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Cost savings across the board in downside scenario

Source: DTZ Research

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Europe USA APAC Global Average

Downside Base Case Upside Average Inflation Rate, Base Case

Regional prime rental growth, base case and scenarios, (2013-14 pa)

Page 30: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• Global economic overview• Asia Pacific market update• Downside scenario analysis• Conclusions

Contents

Page 31: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

HangzhouQingdao

Gold Coast Xi’anSydney Bangkok

Taipei

BeijingBrisbane

ChongqingPerth

ShanghaiShenzhen

Tianjin

BengaluruChennai

DelhiPune

HyderabadKuala Lumpur

Melbourne

Rent falls Rent rises

SingaporeChengdu

Ho Chi Minh CityNanjing

GuangzhouHong Kong

More volatile marketsLess volatile markets

1

Mumbai KolkataShenyang

DalianJakartaSeoul

DTZ Rental wave APAC

Strong rental growth in many developing markets

Source: DTZ Research

Page 32: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office demand remains strong in the majority of marketsAbsolute net absorption in 2011 and 2012

Page 33: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Asia Pacific the only region with above inflation growth in occupancy costs

Source: DTZ Research/Oxford Economics

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

North America

Central & South

America

Europe Global average

occupancy costs

Middle East & Africa

Global inflation average

Asia Pacific

2011 2012

Growth in total occupancy costs per workstation 2011-2012 (in USD)

Page 34: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• Global economic overview• Asia Pacific market update• Downside scenario analysis• Conclusions

Contents

Page 35: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Asia Pacific well placed to deal with negative impacts of Euro breakup

Source: DTZ Research

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Base Case Multiple Eurozone Exit Corporate Re-awakening

Annualised GDP growth 2013-2017

Page 36: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

-2 %

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

1 0 %

1 2 %

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Base Case Multiple Eurozone Exits Corporate Re-awakening

Downside scenario chart on Asia Pacific office rents

Source: DTZ Research

Annualised rental growth 2013-17

Page 37: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Kuala Lumpur

Bangkok

Singapore

SeoulTaipei

Sydney

APACDelhi

Shanghai

BeijingTokyo

Hong Kong

Jakarta

Downside Base Case Upside

Where downside offers opportunities?

Source: DTZ Research

Annualised change in occupancy costs (2012-2014)

Page 38: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• Global economic overview• Asia Pacific market update• Downside scenario analysis• Conclusions

Contents

Page 39: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• The probability of multiple Eurozone exits is higher than ever, despite this we think that property market risks have been over estimated by occupiers

• Asia Pacific occupiers are expected to benefit from more affordable occupancy per workstation costs compared to western markets

• Indian and second tier Chinese markets will remain amongst the most affordable markets in the region, despite forecasts rental growth coming

Key views for 2013

Page 40: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

AmericasMs. Brook Scott - Head of Americas Occupier Research, CBRE

Page 41: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

41

Macro Economic Indicators By Region

(Real GDP, Annual % Change)

Asia-Pacific Latin America World United States Canada0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6% 2012 2013

Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012

Page 42: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

U.S. Labor Market Outlook

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6-5-4-3-2-101234

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

US Net Jobs (Millions), Left-Hand Side

Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012

Page 43: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Canadian Labor Market Outlook

Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-300-200-100

0100200300400500

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

Canada Net Jobs (1000s), Left-Hand SideUnemployment Rate, Right-Hand Side

Page 44: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Real GDP Growth, Left-Hand Side

Latin American Economic Outlook

Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012

Page 45: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

US Office Market – Supply / Demand

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-60,000-40,000-20,000

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%

Completions (SF x 1000) Net Absorption (SF x 1000) Vacancy Rate (%)

Source: CBRE EA, Q3 2012

(SF x 1000) (Vacancy Rate)

Page 46: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Canada Office Market – Supply / Demand

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (4,000) (2,000)

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%

Completions (SF x 1000) Net Absorption (SF x 1000)

Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2012.

(SF x 1000) (Vacancy Rate)

Page 47: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Latin America Office Market – Supply/Demand

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Completions (SF x 1000) Change in Occupied Space (SF x 1000)

(SF x 1000) (Vacancy Rate)

Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2012.

Page 48: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Prime Office Occupancy Costs

Sao P

aulo

Rio de

Jane

iro

New Yo

rk (M

idtow

n Man

hatta

n)

Caracas

, Ven

ezuela

Washing

ton, D

C (Dow

ntown)

San F

rancis

co (Dow

ntown)

Boston

(Dow

ntown)

Los A

ngele

s (Su

burba

n)

New Yo

rk (Dow

ntown M

anha

ttan)

Bogota

, Colo

mbia

Calgary

(Dow

ntown)

Toron

to (Dow

ntown)

Vancou

ver (D

ownto

wn) $- $20 $40 $60 $80

$100 $120 $140

Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2012.

(US$/sq. ft./annum)

Page 49: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Largest Annual Prime Occupancy Cost Increases

Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2012.

(Annual Percent Change, Americas (Q3 2012)

Sao Paulo, BrazilBoston (Suburban), U.S.

New York (Downtown Manhattan), U.S.Houston (Downtown), U.S.Houston (Suburban), U.S.Denver (Downtown), U.S.

Vancouver (Downtown), CanadaCalgary (Downtown), Canada

Panama City, PanamaBoston (Downtown), U.S.

Lima, PeruCalgary (Suburban), Canada

Seattle (Suburban), U.S.San Francisco (Peninsula), U.S.

San Francisco (Downtown), U.S.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Page 50: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Americas Office Rent Cycle

Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2012.

Page 51: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• Continued focus on reducing overall office footprint

• Emphasis on collaborative space• Use of amenities to attract and retain workers• Importance of tech-enabled space• Sustainability focus: “healthy” building

materials

Market Strategies & Opportunities

Page 52: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• Fate of North American office markets inextricably tied to political outcomes

• Fewer opportunities to negotiate favorable lease terms

• Accelerating rent growth – Downtown • Focus on workplace strategies

Key Trends in 2013

Page 53: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

San Francisco Bay AreaMs. Maria Sicola - Executive Managing Director of Research, Cushman & Wakefield

Page 54: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

54

• Bay Area is the Epicenter of Technology– Since the late 1950s (founding of Fairchild Semiconductor) through 2012 (Facebook

now has one billion active users)

• The West Coast Business Center for Traditional Industries– Finance and law

• Highly Skilled and Educated Workforce– Large concentration of research labs and top universities in the world (Stanford, UC

Berkeley, Santa Clara)– Highly educated workforce – Job recovery outpacing nation

• Largest amount of venture capital invested in the U.S. • Housing Stabilizing• Quality of life

– Great cultural institutions, entertainment venues, restaurants – Natural setting

Macro Economic Indicators By Region

Page 55: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Silicon Valley /

Bay Area40%

New England  13%NY

Metro  8%

LA/Or-ange

County  7%

Midwest  7%

San Diego  

4%

Southeast  4%

DC/Metroplex  3%

Northwest  

3%

Other11%

Venture Capital Investments by Region

Total Invested: $2.6 billion

Total # of Deals 268 deals

% Breakdown by Industry

Software 43.6%

IT Services 13.9%

Biotechnology 12.1%

Computers & Peripherals 5.8%

Media and Entertainment 5.3%

Semiconductors 3.5%

Financial Services 3.0%

Other 12.8%

VENTURE CAPITAL FUELS LEASING

Macro Economic Indicators

SOURCE: : PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS MONEY TREE REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2012

Page 56: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Total Office-Using0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

54.7%65.9%

88.4%

116.1%

US San Francisco Oakland Silicon Valley

Labor Market Outlook

Note: US Trough=February 2010San Francisco Trough=February 2010

20.4%

99.4%

3.6%

139.5%

SOURCE: US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Page 57: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Labor Market Outlook By Industry Sector

SOURCE: US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Office-U

sing

Profes

sional

Servi

ces

High Te

ch

Leisu

re an

d Hospita

lity

Educa

tion and Hea

lth

Informati

onReta

il

Manufac

turin

g

Wholes

ale Tr

ade

Govern

ment

Finan

cial

Transp

ort &Utiliti

es-505

101520253035 31.9

25.8 24.6

13.9

7.8 6.6 5.71.0 0.5 0.2

-0.5 -1.6

Thou

sand

s of P

erso

ns

Office-U

sing

High Te

ch

Profes

sional

Servi

ces

Educa

tion and Healt

h

Informati

on

Manufac

turin

g

Leisu

re an

d Hospita

lity

Retail

Wholes

ale Tr

ade

Finan

cial

Transp

ort &Utiliti

es

Govern

ment

-10-505

10152025303540 34.2

26.420.3

15.2 12.78.8 6.3 4.8 3.0 1.2 0.6

-3.5

Thou

sand

s of P

erso

ns

Professi

onal Se

rvice

s

Educa

tion and Healt

h

Leisu

re an

d Hospita

lity

High Te

ch

Office-U

sing

Retail

Wholesal

e Trad

e

Transp

ort &Utiliti

es

Informati

on

Govern

ment

Finan

cial

Manufactu

ring

-6-4-202468

10 8.3 8.2

5.54.4 4.0

2.8 2.3

-0.2 -0.8-2.4

-3.5-5.0

Thou

sand

s of P

erso

ns

OAKLANDSAN FRANCISCO

SILICON VALLEY

Total Change +63,800 Total Change 20,200

Total Change +72,500

Page 58: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Markets: Bay Area – Q4 2009

Page 59: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Office Markets: Bay Area – Q4 2012

Page 60: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Accounting; 2.7%

Advertising / Media; 6.5%

Architecture / Engineer-ing; 6.2%

Business Services; 4.3%

Communications; 0.4%

Construction / Real Estate; 2.7%

Education; 1.4%

Energy ; 1.4%Environmental; 0.7%

Financial Services; 5.2%

Government; 0.5%

Insurance; 1.1%

Legal Services; 8.8%

Medical / Healthcare; 1.9%

Non-Profit; 1.0%

Other; 5.7%

Software / Technology; 49.3%

4,565,000 Square Feet of Total Active Tenant Requirements

San Francisco Office Market – Current Tenant DemandBy Industry Sector

Page 61: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Q4 Q4 YoY

2011 2012 Growth (%)

Tech Index $49.26 $51.89 5.3%

“Class A Tech” $50.70 $52.83 4.2%

“Prime Creative Tech” $44.16 $50.14 13.5%

Q2 2012

TECH INDEX: tracks a distinct set of buildings that have the highest concentration of tech firms in San Francisco. While this index does not include all buildings occupied by tech users, it does differentiate between “Class A Tech” buildings and “Prime Creative Tech.”

“PRIME CREATIVE” space, defined as historic and/or brick & timber construction that has undergone a major retrofit within the past 15 yrs, currently consists of 37 buildings with a total inventory of 4.5 msf.

“CLASS A TECH” is defined as traditional class A, mid- and low-rise office space that has been modified to accommodate technology and creative users in a non-traditional office environment. Features often include design elements such as exposed ceilings and duct-work and indirect lighting.

San Francisco Office Market – Rent Comparisons

Page 62: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

San Francisco Office - Vacancy Rate Vs. Rental Rates

SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

$33.48

$27.60

$26.16

$25.92

$30.72

$33.36

$40.18

$43.55

$31.28

$32.52

$41.32

$50.32

$53.09

$56.30 Asking Rental Rate

FORECAST

Page 63: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Silicon Valley Office - Vacancy Rate Vs. Rental Rates

SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

$40.20 $29.40

$24.00

$23.88

$23.60

$24.84

$30.67

$31.99

$28.28

$27.95

$26.70

$29.35

$30.38

$31.73 Asking Rental Rate FORECAST

Page 64: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Recovering

LAN

DLO

RD FA

VORA

BLE

Rent growth acceleratingIdeal for owners of property

Rent at or near bottom of market cycle. Ideal for tenants leasing or seeking to lease property

Rent still elevated but falling from top of market cycle. Falling rents promise future opportunity for tenants

Rent growth slowing. Still landlord favorable but growth is down from peak

TEN

ANT

FAVO

RABL

E

Slow Growth Accelerating

Downturn

San FranciscoMidtown South

Orange County, Jacksonville

San Diego, Los Angeles, Miami, Sacramento

Portland

Palm Beach

HoustonMidtown Manhattan

Downtown NY

Dallas, Fairfield CountyWestchester County

Atlanta, BaltimoreOakland

Hartford, Tampa

Washington DC

Orlando, Ft. LauderdaleChicago

Boston

DenverNew Haven

US CBD Office Rent Cycles(Q3 2012)

SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH

Page 65: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

LAN

DLO

RD FA

VORA

BLE

TEN

ANT

FAVO

RABL

E

Recovering

Slow Growth Accelerating

Downturn

San Francisco

Silicon Valley

Jacksonville, Miami, Sacramento

Northern NJ, Orlando, Atlanta

Ft. Lauderdale

Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa

Denver

New Haven, BostonChicago, Philadelphia

Long Island, Hartford

Los Angeles, Contra CostaPalm Beach, Central NJ

San Diego, Southern NHOakland, Inland Empire, Dallas, Portland

Fairfield County

Northern VA

Westchester County

Orange County

St. PetersburgSuburban MD Houston

San Francisco PeninsulaBaltimore

US Suburban Office Rent Cycles

SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH

(Q3 2012)

Rent growth acceleratingIdeal for owners of property

Rent at or near bottom of market cycle. Ideal for tenants leasing or seeking to lease property

Rent still elevated but falling from top of market cycle. Falling rents promise future opportunity for tenants

Rent growth slowing. Still landlord favorable but growth is down from peak

Page 66: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• Tech will continue to dominate job growth

• Firms maintain a strong presence in San Francisco

• Traditional users may move some operations to lower-cost suburban markets, but will keep headquarters in San Francisco

• Construction pipeline ramping up across major markets; Much of this space is pre-leased– Office construction increasing in

Silicon Valley and going vertical

Key Trends in 2013

Page 67: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

• San Francisco and Silicon Valley will remain a tech “hot spot” given high concentration of talent, firms and venture capital. – Act now – this could last another 36 months

• Outdated real estate will be replaced with newer, more efficient space. – Renovations will continue in San Francisco– New construction in Silicon Valley will replace old/tired space

• It’s what is inside that counts– Interior design– Flexibility in workplace strategies

Market Strategies & Opportunities

Page 68: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

Panel Discussion – Q&AMr. Sven Pole - Executive Vice President, Global Corporate Services, CBRE

Page 69: 2013 Annual Market Forecast

2013 Annual Market ForecastGlobal Market Forecast & Outlook

Electronic Arts HQ, Redwood City, CA

17 January 2013