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ADB – ESCAP – ISOC Study
Unleashing the Potential ofthe Internet in Central Asia,
South Asia, the Caucasus andBeyond*
*This study focuses on the 10 countries, comprising 5 countries in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz epu!lic, "akistan,Ta#ikistan, Turkmenistan and $z!ekistan%, & countries in 'outh Asia (Afghanistan and "akistan% and in Caucuses (Armenia, Azer!ai#an and )eorgia% There is no single grouping that applies to them all +or consistency, therefore, the study refers tothem as Central Asia-5.
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Contents
1. Central Asia+5 at a Glance
2. International and Regional Bandwidth
3. National Connectivity
4. ransitioning to a !igital "cono#y
5. $olicy Reco##endations2
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Central Asia+5 at a Glance
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%ocio&econo#ic develo'#ent indicators
A(ghanistanGDP Per Capita: $666
Population: 31.28 mil
Median Age: 18.1
$a)istanGDP Per Capita: $1,334
Population: 185.13 mil
Median Age: 22.6
A*erai,anGDP Per Capita: $,884
Population: !.54 mil
Median Age: 3".1
GeorgiaGDP Per Capita: $3,6"
Population: 4.5" milMedian Age: 3.
-a*a)hstanGDP Per Capita: $12,26
Population: 1.2! milMedian Age: 2!.
-yrgy* Re'licGDP Per Capita: $1,26!
Population: 5.83 mil
Median Age: 25.
a,i)istanGDP Per Capita: $1,"!!
Population: 8.41 mil
Median Age: 23.5
r)#enistanGDP Per Capita: $!,"32
Population: 5.31 mil
Median Age: 26.6
Ar#eniaGDP Per Capita: $3,64
Population: 2.!8 mil
Median Age: 33.
4
/*e)istanGDP Per Capita: $2,"38
Population: 3".4 mil
Median Age: 2.1
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A yong region0
5
.
5.
1.2
3.5
3.3
.
4.4
1.5
.4
1.6
0with varying econo#ic develo'#ent0
41
1!
23
18
25
3"
33
33
26
25
22
14
1
13
15
18
21
2"
2"
2"
3"
43
45
41
43
4"
36
3!
43
43
4
12
!
12
!
5
5
3
11
6
16
5
4
3
4
5
A#gani%tan
Armenia
A&er'ai(an
Georgia
)a&a*%tan
)+rg+& epu'li-
Pa*i%tan
a(i*i%tan
ur*meni%tan
/&'e*i%tan
"014 +ear% 15024 25054 55064 65 and oer
1,!6
2,655
3,322
4,842
5,56
,582
8,138
15,44
1,516
24,2"5
0 5,""" 1",""" 15,""" 2",""" 25,"""
A#gani%tan
a(i*i%tan
)+rg+& epu'li-
Pa*i%tan
/&'e*i%tan
Georgia
Armenia
ur*meni%tan
A&er'ai(an
)a&a*%tan
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21
33
21
2!
8
"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
"
8"
Central A%ia5 Central A%ia5
e. Pa*i%tan
A#ri-a A7A9 urope
0and h#an develo'#ent0
7#an
!evelo'#ent
Inde8 97!I:
Average annal 7!I
growth 9:
2"12 2"13 1!!"02""" 2"""02"137igh h#an develo'#ent
-a*a)hstan ".55 ".5 0"."! ".84
A*erai,an ".45 ".4 .. 1.21
Georgia ".41 ".44 .. ..
Ar#enia
".28 ".3" ".26 ".!2
;edi# h#an develo'#ent
r)#enistan ".6!3 ".6!8 .. ..
/*e)istan ".65 ".661 .. ..
-yrgy*
Re'lic".621 ".628 0".34 ".52
a,i)istan ".6"3 ".6"01.42 1."
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International and Regional Bandwidth
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ContryContry Inco#e
Classi(ication= 9214:
o( Internet /sers
9214:
Clster 1>
;a,ority access
9?5:
A&er'ai(an A; /pper0mid /7D1,516 61
)a&a*%tan ); /pper0mid /7D24,2"5 55
Clster 2>
$artial access93&5:
Georgia G
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!
• hy are so#e contries
'er(or#ing etter
• hy are so#e contries
nder'er(or#ing
• hat deter#ines ran)ings
• hat are the constraints
• hat can #oili*e growth
• hat are the i#'acts onthe rest o( the econo#y
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Glo'al Aerage
Glo'al Aerage
egional Aerage
egional Aerage
ransitioning to BroadandGa's e8acerate ran)ings shi(t0
1"
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Partially the reslt o( andwidth and s'eed
11
9A9A
12.4
23.3
As demand increases these constraints will ecome more limiting
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!e#and (or inter’l content already dis'ro'ortionately strong
12
Contry o' 5 esites y ra((ic
A(ghanistan @a-e'oo*.-om Google.-om Google.-om.a# >outu'e.-om >aoo.-om
Ar#enia @a-e'oo*.-om Google.-om >outu'e.-om Google.am *.ru
A*erai,an Google.a& @a-e'oo*.-om >outu'e.-om Google.-om Mail.ru
Georgia @a-e'oo*.-om >outu'e.-om Google.-om Baidu.ge *.ru
-a*a)hstan Mail.ru *.-om >outu'e.-om Google.-om >ande.*&
-yrgy* Re'lic *.ru Mail.ru >outu'e.-om Google.-om *.-om
$a)istan Google.-om.p* @a-e'oo*.-om Google.-om Dail+motion.-om >aoo.-om
a,i)istan Mail.ru Google.-om.t( *.ru Google.-om *.-om
r)#enistan *.ru Mail.ru Google.-om *.-om Google.tm
/*e)istan Google.-om Mail.ru *.ru @a-e'oo*.-om >outu'e.-om
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In a landloc)ed region with (ew transnational calesinternational s''ly is li#ited0
• he rans Asia "ro'e 9A": line -onne-t% A&er'ai(an, Armenia, Georgia,)a&a*%tan, )+rg+& epu'li-, a(i*i%tan, ur*meni%tan, and /&'e*i%tan.
• he "ro'e&$ersian "8'ress Gateway 9"$"G: lin*% @ran*#urt a-ro%% a%tern
urope, te u%%ian @ederation, A&er'ai(an, ran and te Per%ian Gul# to
Bar*a, man.
• he rans&"rasian In(or#ation %'erhighway 9A%I;: i% epe-ted to-onne-t te -ountrie% o# ura%ia #rom e%tern urope to a%tern A%ia
in-luding te PeopleE% epu'li- o# Cina, )a&a*%tan, A&er'ai(an, Georgia,
ur*e+, to German+. 13
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0 withot e((ective s''ly and co#'etitive transit'rices re#ain high and ta)e ' re#ains low0
14
Note> relatie outlier %tatu% o# )+rg+& epu'li- and te %tate o# -ompetition in net %e-tion
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ith li#ited s''ly and nreali*ed de#and costs re#ain high
15
Contry;onthly s (or
(i8ed BB 9/%!:
Cost o( (i8ed BB
9 GNIDca' $$$:"valation
;onthly s (or #oile
celllar with data 9/%!:
Cost o( #oile
data 'ac)age
9 GNIDca' $$$:
"valation
A(ghanistan 6!."" 42.2 /na##orda'le 8.23 4GB 5." pen%ie
Ar#enia 8. 1.2 A##orda'le 3.14 1.5GB ".4 A##orda'le
A*erai,an !.5" ". A##orda'le 5." 1GB ".4 A##orda'le
Georgia8.!5
2M'p% no -ap1.4 A##orda'le 4."" 4GB ".6 A##orda'le
-a*a)hstan2".6"
4M'p% no -ap1.1 A##orda'le 5.32 1GB ".3 A##orda'le
-yrgy* Re'lic 5.83 2.2 Moderate 6."" 1GB 2.2 Moderate
$a)istan2!.4"
4M'p% no -ap6.! pen%ie 3.!2 4GB ".! A##orda'le
a,i)istan58.44 26.4
/na##orda'le 1".8 1GB 4.! Moderate
r)#enistan11.4"
512)'p% no -ap14.2 pen%ie 45." 4GB 3.8 Moderate
/*e)istan 3.5" . pen%ie 1"."" 1GB 2.1 Moderate
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!ational Connecti"it#
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Clster 1> good -oerage, a##orda'le a--e%% -ompetitie mo'ile
Contry Coverage Cost Instittional Conditions
A*erai,an
;a,ority coverage #or
mo'ile BB 8" o# pop.,
F" territor+
A((ordale #or 'ot #ied
and mo'ile BB ". and
".4 G9-apita, PPP
@ied BB: state inc#ent do#inated
Mo'ile BB: co#'etitive
-a*a)hstan;a,ority coverage #or
mo'ile BB " o# pop.
A((ordale #or 'ot #ied
and mo'ile BB 1.1 and
".3 G9-ap, PPP
@ied BB: state inc#ent do#inated
Mo'ile BB: co#'etitive
1
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Clster 2> =ere -ompetitie, a--e%% improing, -o%t a##orda'le
Contry Coverage Cost Instittional Conditions
Ar#enia;a,ority coverage #or 'otmo'ile BB !40!8 o# territor+
and #ied BB all ma(or -itie%
A((ordale #or #ied and mo'ile BB
1.2 and ".4 G9-ap PPP
@ied BB: co#'etitive
Mo'ile BB: co#'etitive
Georgia;a,ority coverage #or mo'ile BB
86 o# population
A((ordale #or #ied and mo'ile BB
1.4 and ".6 G9-ap PPP
@ied BB: state inc#ent
do#inated, -ompetitie 7P mar*et
Mo'ile BB: co#'etitive
/*e)istan$artial coverage #or mo'ile BB
3! o# territor+
@rom e8'ensive #or #ied BB .
G9-ap PPP to #oderate #or
mo'ile BB 2.1 G9-ap PPP
@ied BB: state inc#ent do#inated
Mo'ile BB: do'oly
18
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Clster 3> need to epand -oerage and improe a##orda'ilit+Contry Coverage Cost Instittional Constraints
A(ghanistan
Eery li#ited coverage #or #ied BB AD7<
and 7A onl+
$artial coverage #or mo'ile BB ma(or
-itie%
@rom na((ordale #or #ied BB 42.2
G9-ap PPP to e8'ensive #or mo'ile
BB 5." G9-ap PPP
@ied BB: state do#inated
inc#ent, -ompetitie 7P
mar*et
Mo'ile BB: co#'etitive
-yrgy*
Re'lic
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2"
Role o( the Govern#ent na'ling co#'etition to %pur
gro=t
Aggregating and hel'ing to
sti#late nascent de#andtroug %o-ial deelopment
program%IGreater co#'etition in #oile
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Transitioning to a Digital Econom#
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hat is the !igital "cono#y
22
IN"RN""CFNF;
!IGIA<"CFNF;H %FCI"
!IGIA<"CFNF;H %FCI"
nternet J %tand0alone erti-al -onomie% o# scale
nternet J unier%al plat#orm -onomie% o# scope
Interconnectivity
Intero'eraility
Digital -onom+: tran%ition o# traditional indu%trie% and non0 good%
and %eri-e% 'eginning to utili&e te nternet in teir de%ign, produ-tion,
di%tri'ution and -on%umption
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Regional "8a#'les
• A(ghanistan> #inan-ial in-lu%ion• $a)istan> mo'ile mone+
• A*erai,an> e0goernment net=or*
• -a*a)hstan> open goernment
• $a)istan> irtual unier%it+ -ampu%e%
23
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A(ghanistan ;oile #oney e8tending (inancialinclsion0
24
7our-e: o%an =e'%ite 2"13K
/ut mmoney products
lack interopera!ility,
hindering economies of
scale
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$a)istan Branchless an)ing is growing ra'idly0
25
3.483.83
4.24
4.1
5.41
.54
464!
4644 43
2"
"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
"
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
De-L13 MarL14 ?unL14 7epL14 De-L14 MarL15
otal Bran-le%% Ban*ing A--ount% in mil Proportion o# A-tie A--ount%
7our-e: 7tate Ban* o# Pa*i%tan 2"15, Nuarterl+ Bran-le%% Ban*ing 9e=%letter ?an0Mar 2"15O
!ut needs to!oost consumer
engagement
!eyond 2TC to
sustain gro3th
and impact
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A*erai,an> "&govern#ent networ)
267our-e: 7tate Agen-+ #or Pu'li- 7eri-e% and 7o-ial nnoation% 2"15
A&er'ai(ani 7eri-e and A%%e%%ment 9et=or* A7A9 Deliering an one0%top0%op #or
%impler and and more a--e%%i'legoernment %eri-e% troug an
integrated portal
it 'uilt0in o'(e-tie% tat
promote:
0 Mini%tr+ -oordination
0 nteropera'ilit+ among
di##erent goernment %eri-e%
0 Ca%le%% tran%a-tion topromote tran%paren-+ and
e##i-ien-+
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-a*a)hstan & F'en Govern#ent
2
7our-e: )a&a*%tanE% 0goernment e' Portal
B+ opening up goernment
data, ); goernmentintent% to:
• enan-e te
tran%paren-+ o# pu'li-
admini%tration
• promote innoatie u%eo# te data to -reate
ne= %eri-e%
• 7timulate e-onomi-
gro=t
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"&gov> %tats o( "&gov !evelo'#ent
28
Contry Ran)ing "G!IFnline %ervice
Co#'onent
eleco# In(ra
Co#'onent
7#an Ca'ital
Co#'onent-J 28 ".283 ".48" ".54! ".861!
G" 56 ".6"4 ".5!84 ".4261 ".8!5
A; 61 ".58! ".6142 ".388! ".66"
AJ 68 ".542 ".4331 ".46"5 ".48"
/J 1"" ".46!5 ".4488 ".2333 ".264
- 1"1 ".465 ".256 ".38"1 ".413
; 128 ".3511 "."866 ".218! ".48
K 12! ".33!5 "."63" ".23"6 ".24!
$- 158 ".258" ".3228 ".114 ".333
AL 13 ".1!"" ".1811 ".142 ".2418
7our-e: /9 Pu'li- Admini%tration Countr+ 7tudie% 2"14, /9 0Goernment 7ure+ 2"14O,
he region needs to 'grade teleco# in(ra t has high levels o( h#an ca'ital
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$a)istan> Increasing n#er o( niversities are'roviding online learning
Bt challenges re#ain atthe at the connectivitylevel0
• Ba%i- -onne-tiit+•
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Policy Recommendations
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Policy Recommendations
Mobile has become the agent of
change and most people coming
online now are doing so via a
mobile device. Outlying or
marginalized individuals and
communities should beproactively targeted for mobile
connectivity
. Internet access and
national digital economy plans
need to be adjusted to recognize
the increasing mobile centricity ofthe population.
1. rioritise ireless
Policy ma!ers and industry needto wor! together on the twomajor determinants of demand"accessibility
andaffordability
.#overnments themselves have
the opportunity to showleadership in the way digitalservices can be delivered$particularly through e%government$ social protection$and inclusion &e.g.$ financial
inclusion' programs.
(. )timulate
*emand
)uggested principles for
promoting interconnection and
interoperability"
+ ,erms based on public domain
procedures-
+ Rates based on long run
incremental costs-
+ Practices monitored and
enforced by an independent
regulator-
+ Interoperability built into allfuture public sector planning.
. rinciples
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/. 0usiness limate
Policy Recommendations % continued
,o support growing broadbanduse and data traffic$
particularly over mobile$
substantial fibre%based
national bac!bones
and
bac!haul infrastructure will beessential. ,o support
connectivity growth and
usage$ policy ma!ers need to
promote upgraded bac!bone
connectivity andinter%regional
bandwidth
supply.
One of the most effective waysto reduce the transit costs is to
promotecarrier%neutral I2 s
. 0y
removing the bandwidth
bottlenec!$ the full economic
and social benefits of theInternet economy can be
achieved and the path towards
a fully developed digital
economy embar!ed upon.
3. I2 s
4. Infrastructure
5ncouraging investment and mar!et
participation re6uirestransparency
andregulatory clarity
. ,his e7tends to
regulations towards imports of
software and hardware and
e6uipment approval procedures.Policy ma!ers should ensure that
device distribution and retail
networ!s are fully competitive.
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Policy Recommendations % continued
,o ensure effective policyma!ing$ capacity buildingneeds to go beyond awarenessraising and include
training of
policy ma!ers and regulators
.,raining needs to be cross%
sectoral and regulatoryframewor!s need to be multi%
sta!eholder
.
,here needs to be a framewor!
and a process for the collection$
accounting$ and analysis of
statistics and data. Often where
data is apparent it is nationally
defined and remainsincomparable. 8or effective policy
ma!ing across the emerging
digital economy$data needs to be
accurate$ consistent$ and regularly
updated
.
9. )tatistical
0enchmar!s
:. apacity
0uilding
#overnments should proactively
support the sharing of scarce
resources such as towers and ducts
to ma7imize networ! competition-
as well as the sharing of certain
radio spectrum &or dynamicspectrum assignment' to utilize
fre6uencies in bands of under%used
or unused spectrum.
;. Infrastructure
)haring
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$olicy Reco##endations
1. Prioriti%e and na'le irele%% A--e%%
2. denti#+ and 7timulate 9a%-ent Demand
3. Proide Prin-iple% #or 9et=or* nter-onne-tion and 7eri-e%
nteropera'ilit+
4. Build egional erre%trial Ba-*'one n#ra%tru-ture5. Promote te Deelopment o# Carrier09eutral P%
6. mproe te a%e o# Doing Bu%ine%%
. Promote Capa-it+ Building8. Deelop 7tati%ti-al Ben-mar*%
!. Promote n#ra%tru-ture 7aring 34
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