ADB – ESCAP – ISOC Study Unleashing the Potential of the Internet in Central Asia, South Asia,...

8/18/2019 ADB – ESCAP – ISOC Study Unleashing the Potential of the Internet in Central Asia, South Asia, the Caucasus and Beyond

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ADB – ESCAP – ISOC Study

Unleashing the Potential ofthe Internet in Central Asia,

South Asia, the Caucasus andBeyond*

*This study focuses on the 10 countries, comprising 5 countries in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz epu!lic, "akistan,Ta#ikistan, Turkmenistan and $z!ekistan%, & countries in 'outh Asia (Afghanistan and "akistan% and in Caucuses (Armenia, Azer!ai#an and )eorgia% There is no single grouping that applies to them all +or consistency, therefore, the study refers tothem as Central Asia-5.


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Contents

1. Central Asia+5 at a Glance

2. International and Regional Bandwidth

3. National Connectivity

4. ransitioning to a !igital "cono#y

5. $olicy Reco##endations2


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Central Asia+5 at a Glance


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%ocio&econo#ic develo'#ent indicators

A(ghanistanGDP Per Capita: $666

Population: 31.28 mil

Median Age: 18.1

$a)istanGDP Per Capita: $1,334


Median Age: 22.6

A*erai,anGDP Per Capita: $,884

Population: !.54 mil

Median Age: 3".1

GeorgiaGDP Per Capita: $3,6"

Population: 4.5" milMedian Age: 3.

-a*a)hstanGDP Per Capita: $12,26

Population: 1.2! milMedian Age: 2!.

-yrgy* Re'licGDP Per Capita: $1,26!


Median Age: 25.

a,i)istanGDP Per Capita: $1,"!!


Median Age: 23.5

r)#enistanGDP Per Capita: $!,"32


Median Age: 26.6

Ar#eniaGDP Per Capita: $3,64

Population: 2.!8 mil

Median Age: 33.

4

/*e)istanGDP Per Capita: $2,"38

Population: 3".4 mil

Median Age: 2.1


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A yong region0

5

.

5.

1.2

3.5

3.3

.

4.4

1.5

.4

1.6

0with varying econo#ic develo'#ent0

41

1!

23

18

25

3"

33

33

26

25

22

14

1

13

15

18

21

2"

2"

2"

3"

43

45

41

43

4"

36

3!

43

43

4

12

!

12

!

5

5

3

11

6

16

5

4

3

4

5

A#gani%tan

Armenia

A&er'ai(an

Georgia

)a&a*%tan

)+rg+& epu'li-

Pa*i%tan

a(i*i%tan

ur*meni%tan

/&'e*i%tan

"014 +ear% 15024 25054 55064 65 and oer

1,!6

2,655

3,322

4,842

5,56

,582

8,138

15,44

1,516

24,2"5

0 5,""" 1",""" 15,""" 2",""" 25,"""

A#gani%tan

a(i*i%tan

)+rg+& epu'li-

Pa*i%tan

/&'e*i%tan

Georgia

Armenia

ur*meni%tan

A&er'ai(an

)a&a*%tan


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21

33

21

2!

8

"

1"

2"

3"

4"

5"

6"

"

8"

Central A%ia5 Central A%ia5

e. Pa*i%tan

A#ri-a A7A9 urope

0and h#an develo'#ent0

7#an

!evelo'#ent

Inde8 97!I:

Average annal 7!I

growth 9:

2"12 2"13 1!!"02""" 2"""02"137igh h#an develo'#ent

-a*a)hstan ".55 ".5 0"."! ".84

A*erai,an ".45 ".4 .. 1.21

Georgia ".41 ".44 .. ..

Ar#enia

".28 ".3" ".26 ".!2

;edi# h#an develo'#ent

r)#enistan ".6!3 ".6!8 .. ..

/*e)istan ".65 ".661 .. ..

-yrgy*

Re'lic".621 ".628 0".34 ".52

a,i)istan ".6"3 ".6"01.42 1."


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International and Regional Bandwidth


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ContryContry Inco#e

Classi(ication= 9214:

o( Internet /sers

9214:

Clster 1>

;a,ority access

9?5:

A&er'ai(an A; /pper0mid /7D1,516 61

)a&a*%tan ); /pper0mid /7D24,2"5 55

Clster 2>

$artial access93&5:

Georgia G


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!

• hy are so#e contries

'er(or#ing etter

• hy are so#e contries

nder'er(or#ing

• hat deter#ines ran)ings

• hat are the constraints

• hat can #oili*e growth

• hat are the i#'acts onthe rest o( the econo#y


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Glo'al Aerage

Glo'al Aerage

egional Aerage

egional Aerage

ransitioning to BroadandGa's e8acerate ran)ings shi(t0

1"


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Partially the reslt o( andwidth and s'eed

11

9A9A

12.4

23.3

As demand increases these constraints will ecome more limiting


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!e#and (or inter’l content already dis'ro'ortionately strong

12

Contry o' 5 esites y ra((ic

A(ghanistan @a-e'oo*.-om Google.-om Google.-om.a# >outu'e.-om >aoo.-om

Ar#enia @a-e'oo*.-om Google.-om >outu'e.-om Google.am *.ru

A*erai,an Google.a& @a-e'oo*.-om >outu'e.-om Google.-om Mail.ru

Georgia @a-e'oo*.-om >outu'e.-om Google.-om Baidu.ge *.ru

-a*a)hstan Mail.ru *.-om >outu'e.-om Google.-om >ande.*&

-yrgy* Re'lic *.ru Mail.ru >outu'e.-om Google.-om *.-om

$a)istan Google.-om.p* @a-e'oo*.-om Google.-om Dail+motion.-om >aoo.-om

a,i)istan Mail.ru Google.-om.t( *.ru Google.-om *.-om

r)#enistan *.ru Mail.ru Google.-om *.-om Google.tm

/*e)istan Google.-om Mail.ru *.ru @a-e'oo*.-om >outu'e.-om


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In a landloc)ed region with (ew transnational calesinternational s''ly is li#ited0

• he rans Asia "ro'e 9A": line -onne-t% A&er'ai(an, Armenia, Georgia,)a&a*%tan, )+rg+& epu'li-, a(i*i%tan, ur*meni%tan, and /&'e*i%tan.

• he "ro'e&$ersian "8'ress Gateway 9"$"G: lin*% @ran*#urt a-ro%% a%tern

urope, te u%%ian @ederation, A&er'ai(an, ran and te Per%ian Gul# to

Bar*a, man.

• he rans&"rasian In(or#ation %'erhighway 9A%I;: i% epe-ted to-onne-t te -ountrie% o# ura%ia #rom e%tern urope to a%tern A%ia

in-luding te PeopleE% epu'li- o# Cina, )a&a*%tan, A&er'ai(an, Georgia,

ur*e+, to German+. 13


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0 withot e((ective s''ly and co#'etitive transit'rices re#ain high and ta)e ' re#ains low0

14

Note> relatie outlier %tatu% o# )+rg+& epu'li- and te %tate o# -ompetition in net %e-tion


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ith li#ited s''ly and nreali*ed de#and costs re#ain high

15

Contry;onthly s (or

(i8ed BB 9/%!:

Cost o( (i8ed BB

9 GNIDca' $$$:"valation

;onthly s (or #oile

celllar with data 9/%!:

Cost o( #oile

data 'ac)age

9 GNIDca' $$$:

"valation

A(ghanistan 6!."" 42.2 /na##orda'le 8.23 4GB 5." pen%ie

Ar#enia 8. 1.2 A##orda'le 3.14 1.5GB ".4 A##orda'le

A*erai,an !.5" ". A##orda'le 5." 1GB ".4 A##orda'le

Georgia8.!5

2M'p% no -ap1.4 A##orda'le 4."" 4GB ".6 A##orda'le

-a*a)hstan2".6"

4M'p% no -ap1.1 A##orda'le 5.32 1GB ".3 A##orda'le

-yrgy* Re'lic 5.83 2.2 Moderate 6."" 1GB 2.2 Moderate

$a)istan2!.4"

4M'p% no -ap6.! pen%ie 3.!2 4GB ".! A##orda'le

a,i)istan58.44 26.4

/na##orda'le 1".8 1GB 4.! Moderate

r)#enistan11.4"

512)'p% no -ap14.2 pen%ie 45." 4GB 3.8 Moderate

/*e)istan 3.5" . pen%ie 1"."" 1GB 2.1 Moderate


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!ational Connecti"it#


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Clster 1> good -oerage, a##orda'le a--e%% -ompetitie mo'ile

Contry Coverage Cost Instittional Conditions

A*erai,an

;a,ority coverage #or

mo'ile BB 8" o# pop.,

F" territor+

A((ordale #or 'ot #ied

and mo'ile BB ". and

".4 G9-apita, PPP

@ied BB: state inc#ent do#inated

Mo'ile BB: co#'etitive

-a*a)hstan;a,ority coverage #or

mo'ile BB " o# pop.

A((ordale #or 'ot #ied

and mo'ile BB 1.1 and

".3 G9-ap, PPP



1


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Clster 2> =ere -ompetitie, a--e%% improing, -o%t a##orda'le

Contry Coverage Cost Instittional Conditions

Ar#enia;a,ority coverage #or 'otmo'ile BB !40!8 o# territor+

and #ied BB all ma(or -itie%

A((ordale #or #ied and mo'ile BB

1.2 and ".4 G9-ap PPP

@ied BB: co#'etitive


Georgia;a,ority coverage #or mo'ile BB

86 o# population

A((ordale #or #ied and mo'ile BB

1.4 and ".6 G9-ap PPP

@ied BB: state inc#ent

do#inated, -ompetitie 7P mar*et


/*e)istan$artial coverage #or mo'ile BB

3! o# territor+

@rom e8'ensive #or #ied BB .

G9-ap PPP to #oderate #or

mo'ile BB 2.1 G9-ap PPP


Mo'ile BB: do'oly

18


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Clster 3> need to epand -oerage and improe a##orda'ilit+Contry Coverage Cost Instittional Constraints

A(ghanistan

Eery li#ited coverage #or #ied BB AD7<

and 7A onl+

$artial coverage #or mo'ile BB ma(or

-itie%

@rom na((ordale #or #ied BB 42.2

G9-ap PPP to e8'ensive #or mo'ile

BB 5." G9-ap PPP

@ied BB: state do#inated

inc#ent, -ompetitie 7P

mar*et


-yrgy*

Re'lic


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2"

Role o( the Govern#ent na'ling co#'etition to %pur

gro=t

Aggregating and hel'ing to

sti#late nascent de#andtroug %o-ial deelopment

program%IGreater co#'etition in #oile


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Transitioning to a Digital Econom#


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hat is the !igital "cono#y

22

IN"RN""CFNF;

!IGIA<"CFNF;H %FCI"

!IGIA<"CFNF;H %FCI"

nternet J %tand0alone erti-al -onomie% o# scale

nternet J unier%al plat#orm -onomie% o# scope

Interconnectivity

Intero'eraility

Digital -onom+: tran%ition o# traditional indu%trie% and non0 good%

and %eri-e% 'eginning to utili&e te nternet in teir de%ign, produ-tion,

di%tri'ution and -on%umption


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Regional "8a#'les

• A(ghanistan> #inan-ial in-lu%ion• $a)istan> mo'ile mone+

• A*erai,an> e0goernment net=or*

• -a*a)hstan> open goernment

• $a)istan> irtual unier%it+ -ampu%e%

23


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A(ghanistan ;oile #oney e8tending (inancialinclsion0

24

7our-e: o%an =e'%ite 2"13K

/ut mmoney products

lack interopera!ility,

hindering economies of

scale


25/34

$a)istan Branchless an)ing is growing ra'idly0

25

3.483.83

4.24

4.1

5.41

.54

464!

4644 43

2"

"

1"

2"

3"

4"

5"

6"

"

1

2

3

4

5

6

8

De-L13 MarL14 ?unL14 7epL14 De-L14 MarL15

otal Bran-le%% Ban*ing A--ount% in mil Proportion o# A-tie A--ount%

7our-e: 7tate Ban* o# Pa*i%tan 2"15, Nuarterl+ Bran-le%% Ban*ing 9e=%letter ?an0Mar 2"15O

!ut needs to!oost consumer

engagement

!eyond 2TC to

sustain gro3th

and impact


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A*erai,an> "&govern#ent networ)

267our-e: 7tate Agen-+ #or Pu'li- 7eri-e% and 7o-ial nnoation% 2"15

A&er'ai(ani 7eri-e and A%%e%%ment 9et=or* A7A9 Deliering an one0%top0%op #or

%impler and and more a--e%%i'legoernment %eri-e% troug an

integrated portal

it 'uilt0in o'(e-tie% tat

promote:

0 Mini%tr+ -oordination

0 nteropera'ilit+ among

di##erent goernment %eri-e%

0 Ca%le%% tran%a-tion topromote tran%paren-+ and

e##i-ien-+


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-a*a)hstan & F'en Govern#ent

2

7our-e: )a&a*%tanE% 0goernment e' Portal

B+ opening up goernment

data, ); goernmentintent% to:

• enan-e te

tran%paren-+ o# pu'li-

admini%tration

• promote innoatie u%eo# te data to -reate

ne= %eri-e%

• 7timulate e-onomi-

gro=t


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"&gov> %tats o( "&gov !evelo'#ent

28

Contry Ran)ing "G!IFnline %ervice

Co#'onent

eleco# In(ra

Co#'onent

7#an Ca'ital

Co#'onent-J 28 ".283 ".48" ".54! ".861!

G" 56 ".6"4 ".5!84 ".4261 ".8!5

A; 61 ".58! ".6142 ".388! ".66"

AJ 68 ".542 ".4331 ".46"5 ".48"

/J 1"" ".46!5 ".4488 ".2333 ".264

- 1"1 ".465 ".256 ".38"1 ".413

; 128 ".3511 "."866 ".218! ".48

K 12! ".33!5 "."63" ".23"6 ".24!

$- 158 ".258" ".3228 ".114 ".333

AL 13 ".1!"" ".1811 ".142 ".2418

7our-e: /9 Pu'li- Admini%tration Countr+ 7tudie% 2"14, /9 0Goernment 7ure+ 2"14O,

he region needs to 'grade teleco# in(ra t has high levels o( h#an ca'ital


29/34

$a)istan> Increasing n#er o( niversities are'roviding online learning

Bt challenges re#ain atthe at the connectivitylevel0

• Ba%i- -onne-tiit+•


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Policy Recommendations


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Policy Recommendations

Mobile has become the agent of

change and most people coming

online now are doing so via a

mobile device. Outlying or

marginalized individuals and

communities should beproactively targeted for mobile

connectivity

. Internet access and

national digital economy plans

need to be adjusted to recognize

the increasing mobile centricity ofthe population.

1. rioritise ireless

Policy ma!ers and industry needto wor! together on the twomajor determinants of demand"accessibility

andaffordability

.#overnments themselves have

the opportunity to showleadership in the way digitalservices can be delivered$particularly through e%government$ social protection$and inclusion &e.g.$ financial

inclusion' programs.

(. )timulate

*emand

)uggested principles for

promoting interconnection and

interoperability"

+ ,erms based on public domain

procedures-

+ Rates based on long run

incremental costs-

+ Practices monitored and

enforced by an independent

regulator-

+ Interoperability built into allfuture public sector planning.

. rinciples


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/. 0usiness limate

Policy Recommendations % continued

,o support growing broadbanduse and data traffic$

particularly over mobile$

substantial fibre%based

national bac!bones

and

bac!haul infrastructure will beessential. ,o support

connectivity growth and

usage$ policy ma!ers need to

promote upgraded bac!bone

connectivity andinter%regional

bandwidth

supply.

One of the most effective waysto reduce the transit costs is to

promotecarrier%neutral I2 s

. 0y

removing the bandwidth

bottlenec!$ the full economic

and social benefits of theInternet economy can be

achieved and the path towards

a fully developed digital

economy embar!ed upon.

3. I2 s

4. Infrastructure

5ncouraging investment and mar!et

participation re6uirestransparency

andregulatory clarity

. ,his e7tends to

regulations towards imports of

software and hardware and

e6uipment approval procedures.Policy ma!ers should ensure that

device distribution and retail

networ!s are fully competitive.


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Policy Recommendations % continued

,o ensure effective policyma!ing$ capacity buildingneeds to go beyond awarenessraising and include

training of

policy ma!ers and regulators

.,raining needs to be cross%

sectoral and regulatoryframewor!s need to be multi%

sta!eholder

.

,here needs to be a framewor!

and a process for the collection$

accounting$ and analysis of

statistics and data. Often where

data is apparent it is nationally

defined and remainsincomparable. 8or effective policy

ma!ing across the emerging

digital economy$data needs to be

accurate$ consistent$ and regularly

updated

.

9. )tatistical

0enchmar!s

:. apacity

0uilding

#overnments should proactively

support the sharing of scarce

resources such as towers and ducts

to ma7imize networ! competition-

as well as the sharing of certain

radio spectrum &or dynamicspectrum assignment' to utilize

fre6uencies in bands of under%used

or unused spectrum.

;. Infrastructure

)haring


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$olicy Reco##endations

1. Prioriti%e and na'le irele%% A--e%%

2. denti#+ and 7timulate 9a%-ent Demand

3. Proide Prin-iple% #or 9et=or* nter-onne-tion and 7eri-e%

nteropera'ilit+

4. Build egional erre%trial Ba-*'one n#ra%tru-ture5. Promote te Deelopment o# Carrier09eutral P%

6. mproe te a%e o# Doing Bu%ine%%

. Promote Capa-it+ Building8. Deelop 7tati%ti-al Ben-mar*%

!. Promote n#ra%tru-ture 7aring 34

ADB – ESCAP – ISOC Study Unleashing the Potential of the Internet in Central Asia, South Asia,...

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