A Major Emerging Oil j g gCompany in East Africa
Corporate PresentationSeptember, 2013
A Lundin Group Company
2013 – The Proof in the Pudding
• Moving to development– Exceeds threshold volumes for development
– Working with host governments and partners to put “start-up” and long term development plans in place
– Appraisal programs initiated (drilling and 3D seismic)
• Still major exploration upside– Over 100 undrilled prospects and leads identified
– 3 for 3 in South Lokichar Basin – 10 more prospects yet to drill
– Proved petroleum system in Turkana and Anza Basins
– Four new basin opening wells to be drilled in next 6 months
• High impact drilling intensive program 6 rigs from 4th quarter 2013• High impact drilling intensive program – 6 rigs from 4th quarter 2013
2
Location, Location, Location
• First mover advantage in gsecuring unequalled acreage position in what is now the world’s top exploration spotworld s top exploration spot
– Over 250,000 sq km or 62 million acres gross
Rift Basin Area
• Four separate petroleum systems proven to contain multi-billion barrels in surrounding countriesg
• At the crossroads for infrastructure buildup in East Africa (Kenya Uganda SudanAfrica (Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia)
• Major oil companies now
3
scrambling to gain a foothold position
The Opening of the First New Basin – LokicharNgamia-1 discovery is Tertiary Rift Play Opener - Over 100 undrilled prospects and leads
North Sea Reserves:60+ BBO
Tertiary/Cretaceous Rifts Unrisked Gross Best Estimate of
Exploration Wells: 2,408Prospective Resources 23 BBO1
Exploration Wells: Tertiary: 6, Cretaceous: 11
Well symbols:
Oil discovery
4100 km100 km
Oil discoveryDrillingPlannedExisting Well
1Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Lokichar Basin – Low Risk Proven Hydrocarbon System
• Oil discoveries at Ngamia and Twiga confirm highly prospective source rock, traps and reservoirs
Lead “F”Lokichar Sub-basinTime Structure Map
• Etuko oil discovery confirms extension of productive fairway eastward into the ‘Rift Flank Play’.
• Numerous low-risk undrilled prospects defined on t d ith i ti i i
Lead F Time Structure MapTop Lokhone Shale
trend with existing seismic
Agete
Etom
Seismic Section along String of Pearls
Etuko-1Discovery
-Projected-Twiga S.‐1 Ekales
Swala
Agete
Etom
Ngamia‐1 AmosingTwiga SouthDiscovery
g
Loperot-1
Seismic Section along String of Pearls
Oil in shallow b h l
Ewoi
Ekales
Southern Stringof Pearls
boreholes
NgamiaDiscovery
Amosing
Ekunyuk
5
20 km13T 10BB
Ekosowan
* Some prospects renamed to reflect local designations
5 KMProspects& Leads
Ngamia-1 Cross Section
• Test data confirms excellent reservoir quality in Upper Auwerwer sands:q y pp
– 23-29% porosity– 50 – 400 md permeability
• Well produced 3,200 bopd from six tests• With optimized artificial lift equipment
this rate would increase to a cumulative
Oil in TestMDT Zones
MiocenePliocene
rate of around 5,400 bopd
uwer
wer
nd
ston
es
6
54
Auwerwer Sandstones 25-35 oAPI oilDST #6: Tested 410 bopd with a PCP
Productivity Index ~ 0.7 bbl/day/psi
DST #5A:Tested 1175 bopd with an ESPProductivity Index ~ 2 bbl/day/psi
DST #4: Tested 415 bopd with a PCP
3
2
Au
San
Lokhone
Productivity index ~0.3 bbl/d/psiDST #3A:Tested 817 bopd with an ESP
Productivity Index ~ 1.4 bbl/day/psi
DST #2: Tested 75 BOPD with a PCPProductivity index ~0.1 bbl/d/psi
1
ShaleSource rock
L.Lokhone Ss
InduratedClastics
Lower Lokhone SandstonesDST #1: Tested 281 BOPD with a PCP
175m gross interval with oil shows21-43m possible net pay
PCP = Progressive Cavity Pump
DST successful oil test6
ESP – Electrical Submersible Pump
Note: Transient pressure analysis has been conducted on the Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 well tests. No pressure depletion was recorded over the duration of the tests. Flow periods ranged from 0.5 to 2.5 days and build up ranged between 3 to 12 days.
Twiga South-1 Cross Section
• Core and test data confirm excellent reservoirs in Upper Auwerwer sands:
‐ 23-29% porosity23 29% porosity‐ 100 md - 3 darcy permeability
• Well produced 2,812 bopd from 3 tests• With optimized artificial lift equipment this rate would
increase to a cumulative rate of around 5,200 bopd• No formation water and no pressure depletion during test
Oil in Drill
5
Auwerwer Sandstones
MiocenePliocene
MDT StemTests
DST #5: Flowed 461 bopd of 37o API oil with a PCP (pump capacity limited)Productivity Index ~ 1 bbl/day/psiPotential with optimized artificial lift – 1,000 bopd
3
54
Lokhone Shale
DST #4: Flowed 491 bopd of 37o API oil with a PCP (pump capacity limited)Productivity Index ~ 1.1 bbl/day/psiPotential with optimized artificial lift – 1,600 bopd
DST #3: Flowed 1,860 bopd naturally with 37o API oilProductivity Index ~ 2.5 bbl/day/psiPotential with optimized artificial lift – 2,600 bopd
2
1InduratedClastics
DST #2: Produced at sub-commercial flow rates, reconfirmed the presence of moveable oil.
DST #1: No inflow
PCP = Progressive Cavity Pump
7
DST- Oil recovered
Note: Transient pressure analysis has been conducted on the Ngamia-1 and Twiga South-1 well tests. No pressure depletion was recorded over the duration of the tests. Flow periods ranged from 0.5 to 2.5 days and build up ranged between 3 to 12 days.
Etuko-1 (formerly Kamba Prospect)Etuko 1 Discovery
SW
Etuko-1 Discovery
LokhoneSandstones
Dip Line
A
NE
Etuko-1: 100 MMBO 1
Sandstones
Lokhone Sh
Auwerwer
‘Oil droplets’ in cuttings - plan to test with shallow well
Plio-Miocene
Auwerwer Sandstones
• Drilled to 3,051m
• 40m Net Pay in Auwerwer and U L kh
Thin high-quality sandstones in
Upper Lokhone• ~40m Net Pay in Auwerwer and U. Lokhone
• Successful MDT recoveries in 3 zones
Upper Lokhone Sandstones and Shales
~50m possible oil column in
Lower L khzones
• ~50m possible net pay in Lower Lokhone pending testing of tighter reservoirs
Lower Lokhone Sandstones
L kh
Oil recovered in MDTGas in MDT
Prospective net pay, untested
Thin-bedded lower-quality sandstones
Lokhone
8
reservoirs
T
Lokhone Siltstones
Oil & Gas shows in cuttings, rotary cores, or hotwireTD:3051m
1 Best-estimate Gross Contingent (2C) Resources, 2013 Third Party Independent Resource Estimate
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements. 8
Lokichar Basin Exploration- Next 6 months
Upcoming Wells:
•Ekales-1 (drilling)
Gross Best Estimate Contingent (2C) Resources to date:368 MMBO (gross)1
1 2013 Competent Persons Report (CPR)
Etom Complex – Spud 1H, 2014Best-Estimate Gross Resources:Prospective : 467 MMBO
( g)
•Agete (rig moving)
•AmosingEtuko-1 (2013), TD: 3051m~40m net pay in Auwerwer & U. LokhonePossible 50m net in Lower LokhoneEtom
Agete– Spud Q3, 2013Best-Estimate Gross Resources:Prospective : 276 MMBO
•EtukoTest and Etuko-2
•Ewoi
•Et
Best-Estimate Gross Resources:Contingent (2C) : 100 MMBO
EwoiEtuko
Twiga South-1 (2012), TD: 3227m>70m net pay: 2,812 bopd constrained
Best-Estimate Gross Resources:C ti t (2C) 87 MMBO
Agete
Twiga South Ewoi– Spud Q1, 2014
Best-Estimate Gross Resources: •Etom
•Twiga appraisal
•Ngamia Appraisal
Ewoi
Loperot
Loperot-1 (Shell, 1992), TD: 2950m18-50m net pay (estimated)Oil recovered to surface via wireline-
Ekales-1 (2013) – Currently DrillingBest-Estimate Gross Resources:Prospective : 234 MMBO
Contingent (2C) : 87 MMBOProspective : 132 MMBO
Ekales
Prospective : 317 MMBO
g pp
Seismic:
EkunyukOil recovered to surface via wirelineBest-Estimate Gross Resources:Combined with prospective resources of Ewoi Prospect
Prospective : 234 MMBO
3D Outline:550 sqkm
NgamiaNgamia-1 (2012), TD: 2340m>200m net pay: 3,200 BOPD constrained
Best-Estimate Gross Resources:Contingent (2C) : 180 MMBO •Ngamia-Twiga 3D
(550 sqkm)Ekosowan
Block 10BBAmosingContingent (2C) : 180 MMBO
Prospective : 281 MMBO
Amosing- Spud Q4, 2013Best-Estimate Gross Resources:Prospective : 172 MMBO
9Block 12ABlock 13T
10km
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Ekales-Twiga-Agete-Etom Prospects
Etom NorthBest-Estimate Gross
Resources234 MMBOCOS: 25%
Enlarged MapEt N
EtomEtom Complex
Best-Estimate Gross Resources
Etom N. Kenya
Agete
Twiga South
Resources467 MMBO
COS: 25-38%
EtukoEwoiSouth
EkalesLoperot
AgeteBest-Estimate
Gross Resources276 MMBOCOS: 54%
Ekunyuk
Ngamia Lokichar Basin
Twiga South-1Best-Estimate Gross Resources:Contingent (2C): 87 MMBOProspective: 132 MMBO, (COS: 64%)
Ekosowan
Amosing
EkalesBest-Estimate
Gross Resources234 MMBOCOS: 56% 5 km
10
Block 10BB
Block 12A
Block 13T Depth Structure Top Auwerwer Reservoirs
COS: Geologic Chance of Success (%)
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Ekales Prospect- Cross Section
Future appraisal of
Lead “F”Lokichar Sub-basinTime Structure MapTop Lokhone Shale
• Currently drilling to projected total depth of 2,500m
• Low-risk well located between two oil discoveries
Ekales-1
ppAuwerwer &
deeper targets
Etom
Twiga SouthDiscovery
Agete
Etuko
EkalesBest-Estimate Gross
Resources234 MMBO1
P i Obj ti
Loperot-1Oil in
shallow boreholes
Ewoi
Primary Objective:Auwerwer Sandstones
NgamiaDiscovery
Ekunyuk
Lokhone Shale Source Rocks 13T 10BB
Amosing
Ekosowan5 KM Prospects
& Leads
11Lower Lokhone Sandstone Targets
Ekosowan
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Agete and Etom ProspectsEtom Complex
SWLine 2012- 42
Enlarged MapEtom N. Kenya
SE NWLine 2012-40
Etom ComplexBest-Estimate Gross
Resources467 MMBO
COS: 25-38%
Etom
KenyaAuwerwer
Lokhone Shale
Lokhone Sst
Ewoi
Agete
Twiga South Etuko
Ekunyuk
EkalesLoperot
SW NELine 2012- 42 AgeteBest-Estimate Gross Resources
276 MMBO COS: 54%Ngamia
Amosing
Lokichar Basin
276 MMBO, COS: 54%
Ekosowan
Block 10BBBlock 13T
Auwerwer
Lokhone Shale
Lokhone Sst
12
Block 12A
COS: Geologic Chance of Success (%)
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Ngamia-Amosing Area
Et N
Etom
Etom N. Kenya
Agete
Twiga South Etuko
2012-18
Ngamia-1Ngami West
EwoiSouth
Ekales
Loperot
Lokichar Basin
Ekunyuk
Ngamia
Enlarged Map
Amosing
Ngamia & Ngamia WestBest-Estimate Gross Resources:Contingent(2C):180 MMBO
Ekosowan
Amosing
5 km
Prospective : 281 MMBO, (COS: 64%)
Amosing
13
Block 10BB
Block 12A
Block 13TDepth Structure Map: Base Auwerwer Amosing
Best-Estimate Gross Prospective Resources1 : 172 MMBO, (COS: 34%)
COS: Geologic Chance of Success (%)
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Ewoi-Ekunyuk Prospects- The ‘Rift Flank Play’
Et N
KenyaDepth Structure: Top Lokhone Source Rock
Large Structural Traps
Etom
Etom N. o o e Sou ce oc
5kmPossible Stratigraphic Component
Agete
Twiga South
Enlarged Map
Et k
EwoiBest-Estimate Gross
Resources317 MMBO
(COS: 34%)
Etuko-1 (2013)Best-Estimate Gross Resources:Contingent (2C) : 100 MMBO
EwoiSouth
EkalesLoperot
Etuko( )
Ekunyuk
Ngamia
Lokichar BasinEkunyuk
Best-Estimate Gross Resources
Loperot-1 (1992)Best-Estimate Gross Prospective Resources:(Included with Ewoi estimate)
Ekosowan
Amosing 203 MMBO(COS: 34%)
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources f Thi d P t I d d t
14
Block 10BB
Block 12A
Block 13T
COS: Geologic Chance of Success (%)
from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Turkana Basin: Sabisa-1, South Omo Block
• Sabisa-1 TD’d with oil and gas shows
• Possible trap failure
• T lt l t t t th f lt t
Sabisa -1
W Dip Line E
Tultule Prospect
A• Tultule to test upthrown fault-trap
Tertiary Marker 5
Depth Structure MapTertiary Marker 5
y
Sabisa NorthBest-Estimate Gross Resources28 MMBO
Limited seismic control
Sabisa-1Sabisa North`
West SabisaBest-Estimate Gross Resources124 MMBO
Strike LineS N
BA
Tertiary MarkerTertiary Marker 5TultuleBest-Estimate Gross Resources18 MMBO
Sabisa-1P&A with shows
BLimited seismic control
15
B3km control
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Sabisa & Tultule-1: South Omo Block
Tultule Prospec
t
Sabisa WestProspect ‘Rift Flank’ Prospects
Sabisa-1Projected
W E
Shale Marker
tRiver Schematic Geologic Section
Tertiary Marker 5
Tertiary Marker 3
Volcanics
Base Tertiary, Basement ?
Oil & Gas Shows to
TD 2080m
16
Focus on Opening New Basins
• Chew Bahir Basin (South Omo Block)New seismic identified large inventory of prospects
Prospects supported direct hydrocarbon indicators
• Western Shore, Lake Turkana (10BA)Latest seismic confirms large prospect inventory
Several interesting prospects drillable onshore
• South Kerio Basin (Block 10BB)Western Shore
Chew Bahir
New seismic identifies Ngamia-style play
Several prospects & leadsSouth Kerio
Anza Basin
• Anza Basin (Block 9)Drilling campaign to start Q3, 2013
Anza Basin
17
Potential to extend the Sudan play into Kenya
100 km
Chew Bahir Basin (South Omo Block)
Chew Bahir BasinZorit
Wemay NESIR
Jigra
Jigra S.Sila
Best-Estimate Gross Resources
ShimelaBest-Estimate Gross
Resources48 MMBO
Shimela S.
241 MMBO
East BM
100 km
GardimBest-Estimate
Gross Resources89 MMBO
Sorene
• Possible basin-opener S d fi t ll d 2013
CherebaBest-Estimate Gross
Resources166 MMBO
CB 20• Spud first well end 2013• Large prospect inventory• DHI’s AVO anomalies
KesamiBest-Estimate
Gross Resources 20 MMBO
Tertiary
Chereba S.
CB-20
Kesami SEBest-Estimate
G
18
DHI s, AVO anomalies visible over some prospects
Marker 3
Shala 10km
Gross Resources120 MMBOResource estimates are gross best estimates of
prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Chew Bahir Basin Prospects (South Omo Block)Shi l 48 MMBO
CB Marker 3
SW NEShimela: 48 MMBOBest-Estimate Gross Resources Sila: 241 MMBO
Best-Estimate Gross ResourcesNW SEJigra: 5 MMBO Best-Estimate Gross Resources
CB Marker 5
CB Marker 7
CB Marker 3
CB Marker 5
Line CB 09 Line CB 40
CB Marker 7
Line CB-09 Line CB-40
W
Chereba: 166 MMBOBest-Estimate Gross Resources
Kesami: 20MMBO, Kesami SE: 120 MMBOBest-Estimate Gross Resources
JigraE
CB Marker 3ShimelaSila
CB Marker 5
CB Marker 7
Chereba
CB 20 Resource estimates are gross best
19Line CB-20
Kesami
CB-11 10km
CB-20
Kesami SE
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Newly-Awarded Rift Basin Area PPSA• PPSA award follows 3-year Joint Study
• Extends AOC position in Tertiary Rift BasinsRif B i ARif B i A • Frontier area, no existing seismic data or wells
• Initial exploration program includes 37,000 sqkm Full Tensor Gradiometry survey (70% complete) and 400km of
Rift Basin AreaRift Basin Area42,519 sq km
Tensor Gradiometry survey (70% complete) and 400km of 2D seismic
50km
Tar reported lalong
shoreline
Multiple oil slicks identified on landsat High Resolution
Free Air Gravity
20
y
• Acquired block-wide high resolution airborne gravity & magnetics in 2011
50km
Lake Turkana Western Shore Prospects (Block 10BA)
• 1,350 km of new onshore and marine seismic significantlmarine seismic significantly increased prospect inventory
S i i i iti t t d• Seismic acquisition concentrated along western shore
Kiboko• Large prospects, different play
types, drillable from land
Kiboko
Shaba
Kifaru
• Uncertain stratigraphy between sub-basins
Samaki Lake Turkana
• ‘Bright spots’ seen in new offshore seismic
21
• Spud first well, mid 201410 km
Lake Turkana Western Shore Prospects (10BA)Line 2012-08 Kifaru
Mrkr 5
Shaba
Western Shore
Mrkr 5
Plio. Volcanic
KibokoBest-Estimate Gross
Resources106 MMBO
Shore
3 kmShaba
Best-Estimate Gross Resources19 MMBO
Lake Turkana
Line 2012-32-TZSamaki (projected)
Marine OnshoreLine 2012-08Kifaru
KifaruBest-Estimate Gross
Resources333 MMBO
Flat Spots Line 2012-32TZ
Samaki(new, from recent
seismic)Plio. Mrkr
Resource estimates are gross best
5 kmPlio. Volc
22
estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
South Kerio Prospects (Block 10BB)
S Kerio D
Tertiary Marker 2
New prospects from ongoing seismic program
Estimated prospective
S. Kerio C
S. Kerio DSouth Kerio
Estimated prospective resources in the 50-100 MMBO class, pending CPR audit
S. Kerio B100 km
• Possible basin-opener • Ngamia-type trapsg yp p• Try to confirm extension of Lokhone source rocks• Spud first well, mid 2014
“B”SES. Kerio “A”NW Line SK-07
“C” “D”
S. Kerio A
Tertiary Mrkr2
Resource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment
23
5km
resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Anza Graben, Block 9: Extension of the Sudan Play
• Cretaceous Basin on trend with South Sudan with over 6 billion barrels of oil discovered along trend
• Play concept confirmed at Paipai wellNEBahasi-1SW
• Drill Bahasi and Sala back-to-back, both with large resource potential
• D illi i 3 d 2013
Tertiary Mrkr1
Tertiary Play
• Drilling to commence in 3rd quarter 2013
• AOC Operates (50% WI), Marathon (50%)Tertiary-
Cretaceous Unconformity
Tertiary Mrkr2
Paipai-1
Sala:Best Estimate
Unconformity
SW NESala-1
BasementAwaiting Test:
185 BCF (or possible light oil)Best-Estimate Gross Resources
Extension of Sirius oil-prone sub-basin into Kaisut sub-basin
Surface volcanics
Ndovu
Best-Estimate Gross Resources
402 MMBOBlock 9Block 9
Tert. Marker
Bogal 1 Discovery:Best-Estimate Gross
Resources
Bahasi:Best-Estimate
Gross Resources320 MMBO
L C t
L. Tertiary
24
1.88 TCFG
* Some prospects renamed to reflect local designations
L. Cretaceous
BasementResource estimates are gross best estimates of prospective resources from Third Party Independent Resource Assessment except where noted as “Contingent”. Please refer to Prospective and Contingent Resources slide detailing specific contingencies relating to the classification of resources and cautionary statements.
Block 9 Drilling Planning Update
• Greatwall GW190 rig currently mobilizing to site expect Bahasi-1 well spud in Septembersite, expect Bahasi 1 well spud in September
• Base case shallow 3,000 m well target expected to take 60 days to drill dry hole.
• Fully carried by Marathon.
• Sala-1 well to follow Bahasi-1 with a spud early 2014
Kaisut-1
2014.
25
World Class Development Project
• Ngamia, Twiga South and Etuko discoveries prove prolific light oil South Lokichar basin prove prolific light oil South Lokichar basin with significant running room
• South Lokichar Basin exceeds threshold volumes for developmentvolumes for development
• Kenyan & Ugandan Presidents agree joint export pipeline*
• Concept work on pipeline and offshore loading complete
• Expect to agree pipeline cooperation• Expect to agree pipeline cooperation agreement between Kenyan & Ugandan Joint Ventures imminently
P FEED i i i i li d• Pre-FEED activities on pipeline expected to start imminently
• Potential for “Start-up” (Road & Rail) to be
26
26 reviewed
*Tullow public disclosure
Ngamia/Twiga Well Tests Have Significantly Advanced Reservoir Understanding
What we know:• Waxy sweet crude 25-35 deg API –
wax can be managed with heat
What we need to know:• Aerial extent of net pay• Reservoir connectivity
• High quality Auwerwer reservoir –23-29% porosity & 50 mD–3D permeability
• Lower quality Lokhone reservoir is productive –
y• Secondary recovery performance –
water injection
10-20% porosity & 1-20 mD permeability
• Doubled net pay at Ngamia >200 m and increased view on recovery range up to 40% for Auwerwer How we will understandfor Auwerwer
• Low gas content 50-100 scf/bbl
• No formation water production & no pressure depletion during test durations
How we will understandthese issues:• Appraisal drilling program• Extended Well Test (EWT)
depletion during test durations
• Low reservoir pressure will require artificial lift• Special Core Analysis
27
27APPRAISAL DRILLING & EWT WILL RESOLVE THESE UNCERTAINTIES
Contingent and Prospective Resources
Net Unrisked Prospective Resources**
208% Increase
Net Contingent Resources**
300mmbo
Ethiopia1800mmbo
2C
Net Risked Prospective & 2C Resources**
47200
250
EthiopiaKenya
231 231
751000
1200
1400
16002CProspective
184
4750
100
150
751294
938
75
400
600
800
Drilling program to end 2014
28
47
0
50
2013 2012*0
200
2013 2012*
SUMMARY OF PROSPECTIVE OIL RESOURCES1
Current Working Interests
UNRISKED Gross Best
UNRISKED Net Best
RISKED Net Best
accesses up to 2,500 mmbo net unrisked prospective resources
* 2012 Net Contingent and Prospective Resources quoted at current working interest for comparison.** Best estimate for Kenya/Ethiopia assets and excludes Puntland (Somalia).
Gross Best Estimate (mmbo)
Net Best Estimate (mmbo)
Net Best Estimate (mmbo)
Kenya2 20,127 8,855 1,206
Ethiopia2 2,641 792 88
1 This summary table was prepared by Company management for the convenience of readers.2 Please refer to the Company’s press release dated September 3, 2013 for details of the prospective and contingent resources by prospect and lead, including the geologic chance of success.
3 Risked resources have been calculated and summed by the company after risking prospects and leads individually. Geological Chance of Success (GCOS) varies with each prospect or lead.
4 Net Prospective and Contingent Resources are stated herein in terms of the Company’s net working interest in the properties. Due to the very immature
28
22,768 9,647 1,294
Puntland (Somalia)6 5293 1429
28,061 11,076
4 Net Prospective and Contingent Resources are stated herein in terms of the Company s net working interest in the properties. Due to the very immature nature of these Resources, net estimates have not been computed as net entitlement volumes under the PSAs/PSCs. In this regard the volumes stated herein will exceed the volumes which will arise to AOC under the terms of the PSAs/PSCs.
5 Please refer to independent resource evaluation report, effective June 30, 2011, posted on Sept. 2, 2011 at www.sedar.com under Horn Petroleum Corporation.
6 Based on Africa Oil’s 44.7% ownership of Horn Petroleum Corporation, who holds a 60% working interest in the PSA.7 There is no certainty that any portion of the Prospective Resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is not certainty that the discovery will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
South Lokichar Basin Building World Class Resource Base
South Lokichar BasinBest Estimate Gross Contingent Resources,Gross Risked and Unrisked Prospective Resources
Drilling program to end 2014 60% t 70% f S thaccesses 60% to 70% of South
Lokichar Basin prospective resources
2C resource2C resource increase of
557% since 2012
1 This summary table was prepared by Company management for the convenience of readers.2 Please refer to the Company’s press release dated September 3, 2013 for details of the prospective and contingent resources byprospect and lead, including the geologic chance of success.
3 Risked resources have been calculated and summed by the company after risking prospects and leads individually. Geological Chance of S ccess (GCOS) aries ith each prospect or lead
29
Success (GCOS) varies with each prospect or lead. 4 Net Prospective and Contingent Resources are stated herein in terms of the Company’s net working interest in the properties. Due to the very immature nature of these Resources, net estimates have not been computed as net entitlement volumes under the PSAs/PSCs. In this regard the volumes stated herein will exceed the volumes which will arise to AOC under the terms of the PSAs/PSCs.
5 There is no certainty that any portion of the Prospective Resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is not certainty that the discovery will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
AOI Corporate Summary
• Funding
2013 Work Program fully funded• 2013 Work Program fully funded
• 179.5MM Cash (30-June-2013)
• 272.2MM Cash (31-Dec-2012)63.0
2013 Forecast O&G Expenditures (gross): $567MM
• $43.5MM Marathon farmout carry – dedicated to Block 9, Block 12 and Rift Basin Area
• Drilling focused exploration budget:
D illi 74%
403.8
99.9 Drilling
Seismic
Other• Drilling: 74%
• Seismic/FTG: 14%
• Other: 12%
Other
2013 Forecast O&G Expenditures (net): $209MM• Capital Structure
• 253.0MM Shares
• 13.0MM options 29.1 25.0
Drilling
p ( ) $
• Nil warrants
• Nil debt155.7
Seismic
Other
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A History of Value Creation
Company 2002 Recent NotesCompany 2002 Recent Notes
Tanganyika $0.55/share$13.5 million MC
$31.50/share$1.9 billion MC
Sold to Sinopec 2008
Valkyries $0.45/share $16.00/share Sold to Lundin Petroleum 2006y $ /$4 million MC
$ /$750 million MC
Red Back $1.35/share (2000)$45.4 million MC
$30.50/share$8.98 billion MC
Sold to Kinross in 2010
di l $ / h $ / hLundin Petroleum U $0.41/shareU $101 million MC
$23/share$6.9 billion MC+ Enquest spin off US $1.5 billion MC
Active
BlackPearl $0.25/share$2.1 million MC
$2.18/share$645 million MC
Active
ShaMaran $0.175 (2003)$6.7 million MC
$0.46/share$377 million MC
Active
9 Year value increase: $173MM => $21 BillionAverage share price increase: 32x
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Average share price increase: 32x
Corporate Social Responsibility Commitment
Africa Oil is committed to addressing the challenge of
Risk Management and Value Creation
sustainability - delivering value to our shareholders, while providing economic and social benefits to impacted communities and minimizing our environmental footprint.
•To create a working environment such that we cause no harm to people, and where we minimize our impact on the environment.
•To create a secure and safe working environment for our peopleTo create a secure and safe working environment for our people and assets
•To conduct our business in an honest and ethical manner.
•To enter into dialogue and engagement with key stakeholders, conducted in the spirit of transparency and good faith.
•To deliver tangible and sustainable benefits that contribute to theTo deliver tangible and sustainable benefits that contribute to the social and economic well being of citizens in our host countries.
•To support the development of financial transparency and good governance mechanisms
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governance mechanisms.
•To support and protect internationally recognized human rights.
Opportunity Summary
• Africa Oil has the best onshore acreage position in East Africa the• Africa Oil has the best onshore acreage position in East Africa, the world’s hottest exploration location
• The Ngamia, Twiga and Etuko discoveries have significantly de-g g g yrisked the South Lokichar Basin and more discoveries are expected in this trend
Th C tl h 3 ti i d i f• The Company currently has 3 active rigs and are in process of mobilizing 3 additional rigs with 7 to 10 wells planned in 2013
• New wells in unexplored sub-basins have the chance of de-riskingNew wells in unexplored sub basins have the chance of de risking significant amounts of prospective resource and potentially adding large volumes of contingent resources
• Research coverage from 24 analysts with an average target price of $11.46/share
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AOI has a Strong Management Team
Keith Hill, President and CEOMr. Hill has over 25 years experience in the oil industry including international new venture management and senior exploration positions at Occidental Petroleum and Shell Oil Company. His education includes a Master of Science degree in Geology and Bachelor of Science degree in Geophysics from Michigan State University as well as an MBA from the University of St. Thomas in Houston. Prior to his involvement with Africa Oil, Mr. Hill was President and CEO of Valkyries where he led the company through rapid growth and ultimately a highly successful $700 million takeover by Lundin Petroleum. In addition, Mr. Hill was one of the founding directors of Tanganyika Oil which was recently the subjectultimately a highly successful $700 million takeover by Lundin Petroleum. In addition, Mr. Hill was one of the founding directors of Tanganyika Oil which was recently the subject of a $2 billion takeover by Sinopec International Petroleum.
Ian Gibbs, CFOIan Gibbs is a Canadian Chartered Accountant and a graduate of the University of Calgary where he obtained a bachelor of commerce degree. Ian Gibbs has held a variety of prominent positions within the Lundin Group of Companies; most recently as CFO of Tanganyika Oil Company Ltd. where he played a pivotal role in the recent $2 billion acquisition by Sinopec International Petroleum Prior to Tanganyika Mr Gibbs was CFO of Valkyries Petroleum Corp which was the subject of a $700million takeoveracquisition by Sinopec International Petroleum . Prior to Tanganyika, Mr. Gibbs was CFO of Valkyries Petroleum Corp which was the subject of a $700 million takeover.
Nick Walker, COOMr. Walker has 27 years of industry experience including 17 years with Talisman Energy Inc. where he served as Executive Vice‐President of International Operations West as well as country manager positions in the UK and Malaysia/Vietnam. He started his career as a petroleum engineer with BP plc. and also worked in senior management positions at Bow Valley Energy Inc. He previously served on the Board of Oil & Gas UK, the trade association representing the UK oil and gas business. His education includes a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mining Engineering from Imperial College in London a Master of Science Degree in Computing Science from University College in London and an MBA fromScience Degree in Mining Engineering from Imperial College in London, a Master of Science Degree in Computing Science from University College in London and an MBA from City University Business School, also in London.
James Phillips, VP Business DevelopmentBefore joining Africa Oil, Mr. Phillips was Vice President Exploration‐Africa and Middle East for Lundin Petroleum AB where he played a pivotal role in securing the majority of Africa Oil’s current portfolio. Mr. Phillips is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley and San Diego State University where he obtained BS and MS degrees, both in Geology He has over 25 years of experience in the oil industry including senior positions with Shell Oil company and Occidental including heading up Oxy’s Africanboth in Geology. He has over 25 years of experience in the oil industry including senior positions with Shell Oil company and Occidental including heading up Oxy s African exploration ventures.
Paul Martinez, VP ExplorationDr. Martinez, most recently Director of International Business Development with Occidental Petroleum Corporation, has over 21 years of domestic US and international senior management experience in oil and gas exploration and development, including projects in the Texas Gulf Coast, Permian Basin, Rockies, Latin America, Africa, Middle East, and Russia He has held overseas management positions for Oxy in Libya Oman and Peru Dr Martinez holds a doctorate in petroleum geology from Stanford University and aRussia. He has held overseas management positions for Oxy in Libya, Oman and Peru. Dr. Martinez holds a doctorate in petroleum geology from Stanford University and a Bachelor of Science degree in geology from the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Martinez is based in the Africa Oil Calgary technical office and is responsible for all geological and geophysical activities of the Company.
Alex Budden, VP External RelationsBefore joining Africa Oil Alex Budden served as a Diplomat for the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office for 21 years. His international experience has seen him serve in Africa,
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Asia, the Middle East, Russia, the Balkans and North America. Throughout his career he has focused on international security, conflict, governance, human rights, energy and environment issues and specializes in government and security relations, complex stakeholder management and strategic communications work.
Cautionary Statements
This document has been prepared and issued by and is the sole responsibility of Africa Oil Corp. (the “Company”) and its subsidiaries. It comprises the written materials for a t ti t i t d/ i d t f i l i th C ’ b i ti iti B tt di thi t ti d/ ti f thi d tpresentation to investors and/or industry professionals concerning the Company’s business activities. By attending this presentation and/or accepting a copy of this document,
you agree to be bound by the following conditions and will be taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have agreed to the following conditions.
This presentation may not be copied, published, distributed or transmitted. The document is being supplied to you solely for your information and for use at the Company’s presentation to investors and/or industry professionals concerning the Company’s business activities. It is not an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to whatsoever. sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in the Company in any jurisdiction nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of it di t ib ti f th b i f b li d i ti ith t t it t i t t d i i i l ti th t d it tit t d tiits distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract commitment or investment decision in relation thereto nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. The information contained in this presentation may not be used for any other purposes.
This update contains certain forward looking information that reflect the current views and/ or expectations of management of the Company with respect to its performance, business and future events including statements with respect to financings and the Company’s plans for growth and expansion. Such information is subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions, which may cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied including the risk that the Company is unable to obtain required financing and risks and uncertainties inherent in oil exploration and development activities. Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the
ti f h i f ti h k t i f il d d h i l d t th C ’ bilit t l d l d d t t d il dpreparation of such information, such as market prices for oil and gas and chemical products, the Company’s ability to explore, develop, produce and transport crude oil and natural gas to markets and the results of exploration and development drilling and related activities, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information. The Company assumes no future obligation to update these forward looking information except as required by applicable securities laws.
Certain data in this presentation was obtained from various external data sources, and the Company has not verified such data with independent sources. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made and no reliance should be placed, on the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability of that data, and
h d t i l i k d t i ti d i bj t t h b d i f tsuch data involves risks and uncertainties and is subject to change based on various factors.
No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness. The Company and its members, directors, officers and employees are under no obligation to update or keep current information contained in this presentation, to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law, and any opinions expressed in them are subject to change without notice, whether as a result of new information or future events. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by the Company or any of its subsidiaries undertakings or affiliates or directors, officers or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy, correctness, completeness or reliability
f th i f ti i i t i d i thi t ti h th i d d tl ifi d h i f ti d li l th ill b t l i kof the information or opinions contained in this presentation, nor have they independently verified such information, and any reliance you place thereon will be at your sole risk. Without prejudice to the foregoing, no liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith is accepted by any such person in relation to such information.
For additional details on the Company, please see the Company’s profile at www.sedar.com.
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Prospective and Contingent ResourcesThere is no certainty that any discovered resources referred to in this presentation will be commercially viable to produce. There is no certainty that any portion of the undiscovered resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
Risks associated with discovering oil:The estimation of prospective resource volumes for high-risk and poorly calibrated basins can be subject to large variation from the introduction of new information. The estimates presented herein are based on all of the information available at the effective date of the resource estimate. New data or information is likely to have a material effect on the resource assessment values. Since the effective date of the resource estimates provided, the Company has continued to actively explore, with multiple 2D seismic crews operational and several exploration wells drilled. p p y y p p p pWhile discoveries have been made at Ngamia-1, Twiga South-1, and Etuko-1 in the Lokichar basin of the Tertiary rift in Kenya, there is no certainty that any additional resources will be discovered. Once discovered, there is no certainty that the discovery will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. Given that most of the resources in the portfolio are in leads that require additional data to fully define their potential it is likely that significant changes to the resource estimates will occur with the incorporation of additional data and information.
Risk Associated with the Estimates:In the event of a discovery, basic reservoir parameters, such as porosity, net hydrocarbon pay thickness, fluid composition and water saturation, may vary from those assumed by the Company’s independent third party resource evaluator affecting the volume of hydrocarbon estimated to be present. Other factors such as the reservoir pressure, density and viscosity of the p y p p y g y p p y yoil and solution gas/oil ratio will affect the volume of oil that can be recovered. Additional reservoir parameters such as permeability, the presence or absence of water drive and the specific mineralogy of the reservoir rock may affect the efficiency of the recovery process. Recovery of the resources may also be affected by well performance, reliability of production and process facilities, the availability and quality of source water for enhanced recovery processes and availability of fuel gas. There is no certainty that certain mineral interests are not affected by ownership considerations that have not yet come to light.
Substantial Capital Requirements:Africa Oil expects to make substantial capital expenditures for exploration, development and production of oil and gas reserves in the future. The Company's ability to access the equity or debt markets may be affected by any prolonged market instability. The inability to access the equity or debt markets for sufficient capital, at acceptable terms and within required time frames, could have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition, results of operations and prospects.
Ability to Execute Exploration and Development Program:It may not always be possible for Africa Oil to execute its exploration and development strategies in the manner in which the Company considers optimal. Execution of exploration and development strategies is dependent upon the political and security climate in the host countries where the Company operates and agreement amongst the Company joint venture partners. The Company's exploration and development programs in East Africa may involve the need to obtain approvals from relevant authorities who may require conditions to be satisfied or the exercise of discretion by the relevant authorities. It may not be possible for such conditions to be satisfied.
Absence of a Formal Development Plan including Required Funding:There is no certainty the Company will prepare and have approved a development plan for any portion of the contingent resources or that the Company will be successful in funding any development should such a plan be prepared. General market conditions, the sufficiency of such a development plan and the outlook regarding oil and gas prices are some factors that will influence the availability of funding or the Company’s ability to attract oil and gas industry partners to participate in the project.
Access to Infrastructure:Currently there is limited local infrastructure for the production and distribution of oil and gas in the countries in which Africa Oil operates. Export infrastructure to enable other markets to be accessed has not yet been developed and is contingent on numerous factors including, but not limited to, sufficient reserves being discovered to reach a commercial threshold to justify the construction of export pipelines and agreement amongst various government agencies regulating the transportation and sale of oil and gas. Africa Oil is working with its joint venture partners and government authorities to evaluate the commercial potential and technical feasibility of discoveries made to date and potential future discoveries.
Additional Risks:
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Additional risks associated with the estimate of the prospective and contingent resources include risks associated with the oil and gas industry generally (i.e. financing; operational risks in exploration, development and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of estimates and projections related to production; costs and expenses; health, safety, security and environmental risks; and the uncertainty of resource estimates), drilling equipment availability and efficiency, the ability to attract and retain key personnel, the risk of commodity price and foreign exchange rate fluctuations, the uncertainty associated with dealing with governments and obtaining regulatory approvals, and the risk associated with international activities.
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