2004 SOFI
For the Millennium Project Planning Committee
July 30, 2004
.
SOFI Evolution
Year 1: Initial experiment. Projections were single value.Year 2: Trend Impact Analysis introduced; judgments made by staff. Year 3: Sensitivity test involving high AIDS, proliferation and WMD by terrorists.Year 4: Judgments made by panel; node SOFI's.
Changes From 2003 SOFI
For the SOFIGlobal panel estimates of best and worst values of 20 variables and their weightsMore precise definitions of some variablesUse of new or improved sources for the historical dataUpdated historical data
For the TIA's:Global panel judgments about future developments that could affect the variables.Staff synthesized developments into a most important setNew baseline forecasts
Identified levels of uncerainty
Inputs From The Global Panel
Round 1 asked for inputs for SOFI:Best and Worst outlook for 20 SOFI variablesWeights for the best and worst cases
Developments that could change the course of the SOFI variables
Round 2 asked for judgments about likelihood, impact and timing of the developments
Demography
Sectoral Demographics
Latin America (101)39.1%
Europe (70)27.1%
Asia & Oceania (51)19.8%
North America (28)10.9%
Middle East & North Africa (2)0.8%
Africa (6)2.3%
Univeristy (91)29.4%
NGO (54)17.4%Ind. Consultant (41)
13.2%
Corporation (42)13.5%
Government (49)15.8%
Other(24)7.7%
IO (9)2.9%
Regional Demographics
Projections and Weights
Infant Mort 86.7 52.4 30.0 50.0 3.706 3.714
Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries 2382.0 2740.0 3,000.0 2,775.0 3.726 3.842
GNP per capita 4,335 5,675 6,525.0 5,700.0 3.397 3.574
Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Water 60.7 80.9 90.0 80.4 4.015 3.967
CO2 atmospheric, ppm 337.9 367.5 370.0 400.0 4.094 4.231
Annual population additions millions 80.6 73.9 60.0 72.0 3.770 3.900
Percent unemployed 5.6 7.0 6.0 9.0 3.636 3.846
Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) 64.9 78.0 85.0 80.0 4.095 4.131
Annual AIDS deaths (millions) 0.00 3.10 2.0 5.0 3.714 3.741
Life Expectancy 56.8 63.8 70.0 64.0 3.500 3.531
Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) 31 25 15.0 30.0 4.098 4.133
Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%) 24.7 42.9 35.0 50.0 3.655 3.887
Forest Lands (Million Hectares) 4087 3897 4,000.0 3,700.0 3.875 4.037
Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day 2295 2884 2,400.0 3,139.5 3.982 4.125
Terrorist Attacks 739 3361 1,000.0 4,000.0 3.719 3.836
Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population) 1151 1077 900.0 1,175.5 3.517 3.625
Pct. World Population Living in Countries Not Free 41.7 35.0 25.0 35.0 3.458 3.589
School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) 48 69 80.0 70.0 4.067 4.140
Percentage of population with access to local health care 70.6 97.8 99.0 95.0 3.684 3.946
Proliferation 14 17 12.0 20.0 3.759 4.089
1983 2003 Best Worst Wt Best Wt Wrst
Annual AIDS deaths (millions)Terrorist Attacks
Number of Armed Conflicts (at leaProliferation
Percent unemployedInfant Mort
Debt/GNP; Developing CountrieViolent Crime, 17 Countries (per Percent of World Population Livi
Number of People Living on LessAnnual population additions millioSchool Enrollment, secondary (% GNP per capita PPP (constant 1Percentage of Households w/ A
Life Expectancy (World)Food availability Cal/cp Developi
CO2 atmospheric, ppmForest Lands (Million Hectares)
Literacy rate, adult total (% of peoPercentage of population with ac
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Uncertainty
.
.
100*(Best-Worst)/2003 Value
Developments: Probability, Impact and Timing
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives.
59.9 -3.51 11.1
1.2 China and India becomes 50% urbanized 52.3 -3.70 16.4
1.3 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people
62.6 -3.81 8.7
1.4 Standard vaccinations of 70% of all children under five years
57.5 -4.46 7.2
1.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75% of women 49.3 -4.08 9.2
1.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches 85%
47.4 -3.57 11.9
1.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15% 60.5 3.08 7.6
1.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%.
43.1 -3.92 8.4
2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries
2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices.
59.9 -3.60 4.8
2.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%. (See 1.8))
43.1 2.66 9.6
2.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries
45.9 2.76 9.5
2.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and distribution reducing food waste by 10%.
57.5 2.76 7.6
2.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2% of the world’s crops
60.8 -3.73 7.8
2.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3%.
66.5 -4.13 10.2
.
Weights
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5
Weight "Best"
Weight "Worst"
Interpretation of Likelihood
Likelihood by or before 2014
• 5 = almost certain = 90%• 4 = very likely = 75%• 3 = as likely as not = 50%• 2 = unlikely = 25%• 1 = almost certainly not = 5%
Interpretation of Impact Ratings
Impact (percent) =
(median of the panel’s input-1) / 4 x (max plausible percentage)
Variable
Max Plausible
Impact(%)
Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 3
Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries 4
GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US) 20
Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)
8
CO2 atmospheric, ppm 10
Maximum Plausible Impact
A Special Problem • There were many cases where the impacts were obviously negative
and yet the respondents’ answers indicated positive impacts. • Why?
– Instructions about the possibility using a negative impact were not emphasized
– Because “negative” and “positive” impacts could be interpreted as either:
• Moving the curve up or down• Moving the curve in a beneficial or detrimental direction
• Intent: – A positive impact means that if the development were to occur, the
variable it affected would increase in numerical value, even if this were a socially unfavorable direction.
– A negative impact would mean that if the development were to occur, the variable it affected would decrease in numerical value, even if this were a socially favorable direction.
Solution: Assigned Impact Values
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)
4.1 Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20% globally
4.2 New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10% per unit of agricultural production.
4.3 Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water; drought in others, makes water 5% less available on the whole.
4.4 Improved sanitation increases clean surface water by 5%
4.5 World population growth of 20% (See 2.10)
4.6 Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies able in the poorest regions
4.7 Construction and use of high volume inter-watershed pipelines
4.8 Terrorists contaminating water supplies; supplies remain unusable for decades.
Trend Impact Results
Infant Mortality Rate
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Dea
ths
per
1,0
00 l
ive
bir
ths
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Food Availability
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
2500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Cal
/Cap
(D
evel
op
[in
g C
ou
ntr
ies)
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
GNP per Capita
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1995
Do
llar
s p
er P
erso
n
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Percentage of Households with Safe Water
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Per
cen
t (1
5 M
ost
Po
pu
late
d C
ou
ntr
ies)
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Trend Impact Results (2)
Atmospheric CO2
300.0
310.0
320.0
330.0
340.0
350.0
360.0
370.0
380.0
390.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Par
ts p
er M
illi
on
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Population Additions (Annual)
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mil
lio
ns
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Unemployment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Per
cen
t U
nem
plo
yed
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Literacy Rate
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pct
of
Peo
ple
(ag
e 15
an
d a
bo
ve)
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Trend Impact Results (3)
Annual Aids Deaths
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mil
lio
ns
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Life Expectancy
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Yea
rs
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Number of Armed Conflicts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Wit
h o
ver
1,00
0 D
eath
s p
er Y
ear)
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Number of Armed Conflicts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Wit
h o
ver
1,00
0 D
eath
s p
er Y
ear)
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Trend Impact Results (4)
Forest Lands
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
4500
4700
4900
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mil
lio
n H
ecta
res
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
People Living on Less Than #2/day
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mil
lio
ns
of
Peo
ple
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Terrorist Attacks
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Nu
mb
er o
f K
ille
d o
r W
ou
nd
ed
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Violent Crime (17 Countriees)
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Per
100
,000
po
pu
lati
on
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Trend Impact Results (5)
People in Countries Not Free
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Per
cen
t W
orl
d P
op
ula
tio
n
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
School Enrollment (Secondary)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pct
Sch
oo
l A
ge
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Access to Local Health Care
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Per
cen
t (1
5 m
ost
po
pu
late
d c
ou
ntr
ies)
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
Nuclear Proliferation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Nu
mb
er o
f C
ou
ntr
ies
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
SOFI 2004
State of the Future Index 2004
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Baseline
LQ
Med
UQ
SOFI Comparison
Comparison of SOFI's
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
B Line 04
LQ 04
Med 04
UQ 04
B Line 03
LQ 03
Med 03
UQ 03
Terrorist Attacks
Annual AIDS deaths (millions)
Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries
Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/
Nuclear Proliferation
Percent unemployed
Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%)
Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day
Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
Percent of World Population Living in Countries t
Annual population additions millions
GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)
Life Expectancy
CO2 atmospheric, ppm
School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)
Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Wat
Forest Lands (Million Hectares)
Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and
Percentage of population with access to local hea
Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 populat
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20
Percent
Expectations "Best" Minus Median TIA Forecast
.
TIA worse than panel’s “best”
100* (Best- Median TIA)/Median
SOFI Computation
Raw Data forEach Variable
Event Statements
Estimates ofProbability and
Impacts
Baseline CalculationStatplan
Trend Impact Analysis
Event/ Variable Matrix
SOFICalculation
Variables: Best and Worst
Weights
Sheet 1
Sheet 2
Sheet 3
Estimates of Best and Worst Values
Sheet 4
.
Sensitivity Test
• Development: “Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people” – Panel:
• Probability by 2013: 51.33%• Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people
killed or wounded:” 15.2%• Time for the impact: 7 years
– New:• Probability by 2013: 51.33%• Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people
killed or wounded:” 1,250% (about 100,000 people)• Time for the impact: 0.25 years
High Impact Event
Terrorist Attacks
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Nu
mb
er o
f K
ille
d o
r W
ou
nd
ed
Base
UQ
MED
LQ
A Different Future
State of the Future Index 2004
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Baseline
LQ
Med
UQ
Policy Simulation
DevelopmentOrig Prob
Orig Impact
OrigTiming
New Prob
New Impact
New Timing
15.2: “Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people”
51.33 1,250 0.25 10 1,250 0.25
9.4 “Developed nations commit the resources necessary to end AIDS and treat HIV”
52.6 -4.23 9.5 75 -50 5
Effect of Policies
State of the Future Index 2004
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Baseline
LQ
Med
UQ
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