Demography Sectoral Demographics Regional Demographics

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Transcript of Demography Sectoral Demographics Regional Demographics

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  • DemographySectoral DemographicsRegional Demographics

  • Projections and Weights

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    .100*(Best-Worst)/2003 Value

  • Developments: Probability, Impact and Timing.

    1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives.59.9-3.5111.11.2 China and India becomes 50% urbanized52.3-3.7016.41.3 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people62.6-3.818.71.4 Standard vaccinations of 70% of all children under five years57.5-4.467.21.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75% of women49.3-4.089.21.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches 85%47.4-3.5711.91.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15%60.53.087.61.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%.43.1-3.928.42. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices.59.9-3.604.82.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%. (See 1.8))43.12.669.62.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries45.92.769.52.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and distribution reducing food waste by 10%.57.52.767.62.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2% of the worlds crops60.8-3.737.82.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3%.66.5-4.1310.2

  • Weights

  • Interpretation of LikelihoodLikelihood by or before 2014 5 = almost certain= 90%4 = very likely= 75%3 = as likely as not= 50%2 = unlikely= 25%1 = almost certainly not = 5%

  • Interpretation of Impact RatingsImpact (percent) =

    (median of the panels input-1) / 4 x (max plausible percentage)

  • Maximum Plausible Impact

    VariableMax PlausibleImpact(%)

    Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)3Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries4GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)20Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15Most Populated Countries)8CO2 atmospheric, ppm10

  • A Special Problem There were many cases where the impacts were obviously negative and yet the respondents answers indicated positive impacts. Why? Instructions about the possibility using a negative impact were not emphasizedBecause negative and positive impacts could be interpreted as either:Moving the curve up or downMoving the curve in a beneficial or detrimental directionIntent: A positive impact means that if the development were to occur, the variable it affected would increase in numerical value, even if this were a socially unfavorable direction. A negative impact would mean that if the development were to occur, the variable it affected would decrease in numerical value, even if this were a socially favorable direction.

  • Solution: Assigned Impact Values

  • Trend Impact Results

  • Trend Impact Results (2)

  • Trend Impact Results (3)

  • Trend Impact Results (4)

  • Trend Impact Results (5)

  • SOFI 2004

  • SOFI Comparison

  • .TIA worse than panels best100* (Best- Median TIA)/Median

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  • Sensitivity TestDevelopment: Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people Panel:Probability by 2013: 51.33%Impact on the variable: Terrorist Attacks, number of people killed or wounded: 15.2%Time for the impact: 7 yearsNew:Probability by 2013: 51.33%Impact on the variable: Terrorist Attacks, number of people killed or wounded: 1,250% (about 100,000 people)Time for the impact: 0.25 years

  • High Impact Event

  • A Different Future

  • Policy Simulation

  • Effect of Policies