2007
, , , , - - - -
:
: , .
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? : - ,
? :
PQ DSPOQOPQ DSPoQo -
PQDSPo= 4ab : = 4; Q = 30 = a = bQo = 30Pw = 24acde : = 2; Qo= 16, Q = 28, Q = 44 = a+d+e = c} = 28Qs =16Qd = 44 = d+e = -dDS
PQDSPz = 1.5Qz = 60 : P = 1.5; Q = 60 = f = g fgDSP = 2} = 287850hij : P = 2; Q = 78 = h = f i = g + i + jg = -i = i + j1.5
: + e + j
: + e + j
ac + dh + igd + e + achg + I + j
, ,
,
, . ,
QDSPdPwSdDd}M} tPtaa ca + b + c + d StDtbdc b + d b - d }P
PQSdDdPw}qSqPqQsqQsQdQdqaa bcda + b + c + d b + d c
, :
(, , ) - , : (FDI) , ( 10% ) (joint ventures) , , (, , , ..) , - ( - 10% )
, , - -
2007
S G AE
I + G + X =S + T + M
(I - S) = (T - G) + (M - X)
( , )
(current account balance) ,
(financial account balance)
,
, ()
=
P $ Q $ $P $Q > 1ABABE = 1CE < 1C
iYISLMISi MS ( )LM
LM , - : ,
iYISLMLMi MS
LM
iYISLMISY () MS LM , LM , - :
iYISLMLM MS LM :
iYISLMi , IS :
iYISLMLM , ISIS , : ,
iYISLMIS , , ISIS
: , ,
iYISLMLM , , IS IS : ,
2007
,
MV = PQ
M1M2 = M1 + ( ), , M3 = 2 + - , - L = M3 + ,
, v
, : ( )
iM/PMSMD
, , , , Y, i
: :
,
1000 . () ()2008001606401285121000 + 800 + 640 + 512 + r = D/ R
(MB) : (MS):
mm = MS/MBMS = C + D = C x D/D + D = D (C/D + 1)MB = C + R = C + rD + er = = C x D/D + rD + er x D/D == D (C/D + r + er/D)mm = (c/D + 1)/(r + er/D + C/D)
:
: :
: :
iM/PMSMD1i1iYY1i1Y2MD2i2LM MD LM MS = MD MD i,
iYIS1LM IS2Y2i1Y1IS . , IS . . LM . - Y2 i1 e - . , . MD . PV . PV = FV/f(i). . , Y, . . 221
iYISLM1E1MS LM2LM . -MS i -, Y1. Y1 - , I AE > Y. , Y , S. MD .2 . 2
2007
() (AD) , ( = const)AD , (Y = const)
AD : - - ,
AD : ( ) ( ) -
AD :MD ( )
iMD/PMSMDi2i1 i
I (, ) - -
ADiYISLM1 MD . , i . LM . AE < Y. , LM2i1i2Y2Y1Y1Y12AD , , ADY2
AD -
AD AD (, AD):) , ) , I) , G) , ) ,
, AD ( ) : , , , , , ..
(AS)AS
AS - . AD. 2. . . . - ( ), - , .. - .
AS - AS
. , MRPL = MCL, .. - - , .. - . . AS
AS - AS : = - . . > 1 . . - - E = 1 - . - , (Y*) E < 1 - . . - = 0 - . .
AS - , . AS
, AS - :) , ( ), , , , ) , , , ) , , ) ,
ADASY*AD1Y1Y1 Y* = AD2Y2Y* - Y2 =
AS (Y*) , , (Y*) , .
AS Y*LRAS - , ,
AS , AS : , , , , , ,
ASAD
2007
,
: ( ) , , () MS MD, AS
YADAD
YADASAS
:
- AS / UY*U*
2007
: :
:
,
G/ T/G G T =
G / AD / AD
Y = C0 + MPC (Y-T) + I + G + X MC0 + I + G + X M = A Y = A + MPC (Y T)Y = A + MPC x Y MPC x TY MPC x Y = A MPC x TY (1-MPC) = A MPC x T |: (1 MPC)Y = A x [1 / (1-MPC)] + T x [- MPC / (1-MPC)] = - MPC/(1 MPC) = - MPC/MPS T, - [MPC/MPS] x T -
G Y = G x [1/(1-MPC)] T = G Y = - [MPC/MPS] x T[1/(1-MPC)] > [MPC/(1-MPC)] - () - MP (MPS)
() (): = - = + = + /
G, = G, - = - MPC x T ( MPC , ) , G, , MPC x T = MPC G = G - MPC G = (1-MPC) G Y = [1/(1-MPC)] x (1-MPC) G = G G G, G [1/(1-MPC)] x (1-MPC) = 1
( ) , - ) , ) , ( ) . ) , - ) ,
- . , . - , , - , . , , .
iYISLMIS iYISLMIS iYISLMIS G Y - MD>MS
() : , , , , ,
:
-
t0100% ,
(- ):
:
:
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