2007

, , , , - - - -

:

: , .

? ? , ? ? ? ? ?

? : ()

? : - ,

? :

PQ DSPOQOPQ DSPoQo -

PQDSPo= 4ab : = 4; Q = 30 = a = bQo = 30Pw = 24acde : = 2; Qo= 16, Q = 28, Q = 44 = a+d+e = c} = 28Qs =16Qd = 44 = d+e = -dDS

PQDSPz = 1.5Qz = 60 : P = 1.5; Q = 60 = f = g fgDSP = 2} = 287850hij : P = 2; Q = 78 = h = f i = g + i + jg = -i = i + j1.5

: + e + j

: + e + j

ac + dh + igd + e + achg + I + j

, ,

,

, . ,

QDSPdPwSdDd}M} tPtaa ca + b + c + d StDtbdc b + d b - d }P

PQSdDdPw}qSqPqQsqQsQdQdqaa bcda + b + c + d b + d c

, :

(, , ) - , : (FDI) , ( 10% ) (joint ventures) , , (, , , ..) , - ( - 10% )

, , - -

2007

S G AE

I + G + X =S + T + M

(I - S) = (T - G) + (M - X)

( , )

(current account balance) ,

(financial account balance)

,

, ()

=

P $ Q $ $P $Q > 1ABABE = 1CE < 1C

iYISLMISi MS ( )LM

LM , - : ,

iYISLMLMi MS

LM

iYISLMISY () MS LM , LM , - :

iYISLMLM MS LM :

iYISLMi , IS :

iYISLMLM , ISIS , : ,

iYISLMIS , , ISIS

: , ,

iYISLMLM , , IS IS : ,

2007

,

MV = PQ

M1M2 = M1 + ( ), , M3 = 2 + - , - L = M3 + ,

, v

, : ( )

iM/PMSMD

, , , , Y, i

: :

,

1000 . () ()2008001606401285121000 + 800 + 640 + 512 + r = D/ R

(MB) : (MS):

mm = MS/MBMS = C + D = C x D/D + D = D (C/D + 1)MB = C + R = C + rD + er = = C x D/D + rD + er x D/D == D (C/D + r + er/D)mm = (c/D + 1)/(r + er/D + C/D)

:

: :

: :

iM/PMSMD1i1iYY1i1Y2MD2i2LM MD LM MS = MD MD i,

iYIS1LM IS2Y2i1Y1IS . , IS . . LM . - Y2 i1 e - . , . MD . PV . PV = FV/f(i). . , Y, . . 221

iYISLM1E1MS LM2LM . -MS i -, Y1. Y1 - , I AE > Y. , Y , S. MD .2 . 2

2007

() (AD) , ( = const)AD , (Y = const)

AD : - - ,

AD : ( ) ( ) -

AD :MD ( )

iMD/PMSMDi2i1 i

I (, ) - -

ADiYISLM1 MD . , i . LM . AE < Y. , LM2i1i2Y2Y1Y1Y12AD , , ADY2

AD -

AD AD (, AD):) , ) , I) , G) , ) ,

, AD ( ) : , , , , , ..

(AS)AS

AS - . AD. 2. . . . - ( ), - , .. - .

AS - AS

. , MRPL = MCL, .. - - , .. - . . AS

AS - AS : = - . . > 1 . . - - E = 1 - . - , (Y*) E < 1 - . . - = 0 - . .

AS - , . AS

, AS - :) , ( ), , , , ) , , , ) , , ) ,

ADASY*AD1Y1Y1 Y* = AD2Y2Y* - Y2 =

AS (Y*) , , (Y*) , .

AS Y*LRAS - , ,

AS , AS : , , , , , ,

ASAD

2007

,

: ( ) , , () MS MD, AS

YADAD

YADASAS

:

- AS / UY*U*

2007

: :

:

,

G/ T/G G T =

G / AD / AD

Y = C0 + MPC (Y-T) + I + G + X MC0 + I + G + X M = A Y = A + MPC (Y T)Y = A + MPC x Y MPC x TY MPC x Y = A MPC x TY (1-MPC) = A MPC x T |: (1 MPC)Y = A x [1 / (1-MPC)] + T x [- MPC / (1-MPC)] = - MPC/(1 MPC) = - MPC/MPS T, - [MPC/MPS] x T -

G Y = G x [1/(1-MPC)] T = G Y = - [MPC/MPS] x T[1/(1-MPC)] > [MPC/(1-MPC)] - () - MP (MPS)

() (): = - = + = + /

G, = G, - = - MPC x T ( MPC , ) , G, , MPC x T = MPC G = G - MPC G = (1-MPC) G Y = [1/(1-MPC)] x (1-MPC) G = G G G, G [1/(1-MPC)] x (1-MPC) = 1

( ) , - ) , ) , ( ) . ) , - ) ,

- . , . - , , - , . , , .

iYISLMIS iYISLMIS iYISLMIS G Y - MD>MS

() : , , , , ,

:

-

t0100% ,

(- ):

:

: