(YoY, %p) Corporate Household (w/o Mort) Household (Mort ... · picks kami adalah Bank Central Asia...
Transcript of (YoY, %p) Corporate Household (w/o Mort) Household (Mort ... · picks kami adalah Bank Central Asia...
Taye Shim +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Lending growth by segment
Source: Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
2 Oktober, 2018
Banks - The higher the better
Pada bulan Juli, pertumbuhan kredit bank mencapai 11.3% YoY, level tertinggi
sejak Februari 2015. Segmen korporasi adalah pendorong utama pertumbuhan
kredit. Namun, kami pikir angka pertumbuhan yang kuat tidak menunjukkan
optimisme perusahaan, tetapi mencerminkan aliran uang dan low base effect.
Higher loan growth driven by 1) high bond yields and 2) low base effect
Imbal hasil obligasi telah meningkat sejak Januari, menembus level 8.0% pada
bulan Agustus. Kami berpendapat sebelumnya bahwa peningkatan imbal hasil
obligasi dapat menyebabkan perusahaan untuk beralih kembali ke industri
perbankan. Kami sekarang melihat pertumbuhan pinjaman korporasi sebagai
bukti. Faktor lain yang menjelaskan pertumbuhan kredit yang lebih tinggi
adalah low base effect dari kelemahan pada bulan Juli 2017 (-0.5% MoM).
Untuk 2018, kami memperkirakan pertumbuhan kredit akan lebih baik
daripada di 2017, seperti di lingkungan saat ini, bank memprioritaskan
pertumbuhan kredit (Q) daripada bunga (P). Segmen korporasi diperkirakan
akan terus mendorong pertumbuhan kredit, sementara kredit rumah tangga
dan UMKM akan berada pada level saat ini, dengan sedikit sentimen negatif.
Other key indicators: NPL and interest rates
Meskipun bank telah meningkatkan bunga deposito, kami percaya dampak
pada biaya dana (hanya mempertimbangkan pendanaan dari deposito) akan
tetap kecil, mengingat 1) rasio CASA saat ini dan 2) CASA yang masih menurun
menghasilkan. Namun, NIM kemungkinan akan meningkat dari level saat ini,
meskipun dengan sedikit kenaikan karena 1) kenaikan bunga pinjaman
terbatas, 2) rasio pinjaman terhadap simpanan yang tinggi, dan 3) keinginan
bank untuk menjaga biaya provisi tetap rendah.
Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Netral kami pada industri perbankan. Top
picks kami adalah Bank Central Asia (BBCA/Trading Buy/IDR26,400) dan Bank
Negara Indonesia (BBNI/Buy/IDR9,400). Key risks untuk panggilan kami adalah
1) perlambatan ekonomi global dan domestik, yang dapat menghambat
investasi; 2) penurunan harga komoditas dan imbal hasil obligasi; dan 3)
kompresi NIM.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,944.6 -0.5 -0.7 1.1
MSCI Indonesia 22.9 -0.2 -1.7 -13.4
MSCI EM 1,046.4 -0.1 -0.8 -3.2
HANG SENG 27,788.5 0.3 -0.6 0.6
KOSPI 2,338.9 0.1 0.7 -2.3
FTSE 7,495.7 -0.2 1.0 1.0
DJIA 26,651.2 0.7 1.9 17.3
NASDAQ 8,037.3 -0.1 -0.8 23.5
Valuation
2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 15.6 2.3 17.0
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 5.75 0 0 75
3yr 7.77 -10 14 172
10yr 8.01 -10 -19 150
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 14,911.00 0.1 0.6 10.1
USD/KRW 1,111.70 0.2 0.1 -2.9
USD/JPY 113.93 0.2 2.6 1.0
USD/CNY 6.87 0.2 1.3 3.4
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 75.3 2.8 7.9 43.6
Gold 1,189.0 -0.2 -1.0 -6.5
Coal 114.6 0.4 -2.9 17.8
Palm Oil 2,094.0 -1.1 -4.8 -23.0
Rubber 122.6 0.0 -0.4 -8.4
Nickel 12,505.0 -0.8 -2.3 19.1
Copper 6,249.0 -0.1 4.6 -3.8
Tin 18,975.0 0.5 -0.6 -8.7
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
550
800
1,050
1,300
1,550
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
01/17 06/17 11/17 04/18 09/18
JCI MSCI EM(pt)
(pt)
650
800
950
1,100
3,500
4,500
5,500
04/13 01/14 10/14 07/15 04/16
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1/16 4/16 7/16 10/16 1/17 4/17 7/17 10/17 1/18 4/18 7/18
Corporate Household (w/o Mort)Household (Mort) MSMETotal Loan growth
(YoY, %p)
2 Oktober, 2018
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
2 Oktober, 2018
3
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Local flashes
ASRI: Jaga kinerja, Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI) siap luncurkan dua produk baru di
kuartal IV. Kejar target marketing sales hingga Rp 4 triliun di akhir tahun, PT Alam
Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) siap luncurkan dua produk baru di kuartal IV-2018. "Akan ada
satu atau dua produk baru lagi di kuartal IV-2018. Pengumuman resmi peluncuran baru
cluster perumahan tersebut akan rilis besok," kata Corporate Secretary ASRI Tony
Rudiyanto kepada Kontan.co.id, Senin (1/10). Tony bilang, pihaknya optimistis bisa
mencapai target marketing sales di akhir 2018. Meskipun, data kinerja keuangan
emiten itu hingga September masih dalam proses konsolidasi. (Kontan)
BNGA: CIMB Niaga genjot dana murah. PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk terus menggenjot
dana murah alias current account saving account (CASA). Hingga akhir tahun CIMB
Niaga menargetkan porsi CASA bisa mencapai 55% dari total dana pihak ketiga (DPK).
Direktur Konsumer Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk Lani Darmawan mengatakan, hingga Agustus
2018, CASA bank sudah mencapi 55,89% terhadap total DPK. "Kami tetap fokus di
CASA secara konsisten. Sehubung dengan dana lebih murah dan juga untuk giro
sehubung dengan kegiatan bisnis di non retail. Dimana kami juga kejar operating
account serta cash management," (Kontan)
KPIG: MNC Land operasikan hotel di Surabaya. MNC Land mulai mengoptimalkan
bisnis hotel. Kali ini dengan mengoperasikan Oakwood Hotel & Residence Surabaya
yang sudah soft-opening pada tanggal 27 September 2018. Perusahaan ini berharap,
keberadaan hotel tersebut bisa menjawab kebutuhan pasar properti. Oakwood Hotel
& Residence Surabaya berkapasitas 144 kamar kombinasi tipe kamar hotel dan
serviced apartment. Shafar Jamaludin, General Manager untuk Oakwood Hotel &
Residence Surabaya menyebutkan kehadiran hotel tersebut memberi kesempatan
kepada tamu dengan layanan kelas global. (Kontan)
GMFI: GMFI perkirakan tidak realisasikan 100% belanja modal tahun ini. Tahun ini, PT
Garuda Maintenance Facility AeroAsia Tbk (GMFI) mempersiapkan belanja modal atau
capital expenditure (capex) yang cukup besar yakni US$ 127 juta. Namun, Vice
President Corporate Secretary GMF AeroAsia Fidiarta Andika mengatakan,
kelihatannya belanja GMF AeroAsia tidak akan terserap 100%. “Rencana awal sekitar 50%
organik dan 50% anorganik,” katanya kepada Kontan.co.id, Senin (1/10). Menurutnya,
rencana ekspansi anorganik sepertinya tidak terrealisasi. Alasannya, GMFI belum ada
keperluan ekspansi anorganik. (Kontan)
PEGE: Semester II-2018, Panca Global (PEGE) optimistis bukukan pertumbuhan laba
10%. Perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang perantara perdagangan efek dan penjamin
emisi efek PT Panca Global Kapital Tbk (PEGE) optimistis kinerja perusahaan di
semester II-2018 tumbuh positif. Hendra H Kustarjo, Presiden Direktur PT Panca Global
Kapital Tbk mengatakan pada semester II-2018 perusahaan memproyeksikan bisa
mencatat pertumbuhan laba 10%. "Proyeksinya lebih dari 10% dari profit periode yang
sama tahun lalu, untuk angka pastinya nanti dikabari lagi kalau ada update terbaru,"
ujarnya saat ditemui seusai RUPSLB, Senin (1/10).(Kontan)
WIKA: Wijaya Karya (WIKA) raih kontrak baru Rp 23,35 triliun hingga Agustus. PT
Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) mencatatkan perolehan kontrak baru Rp 23,35 triliun hingga
Agustus 2018. Nilai kontrak tersebut meningkat Rp 2,12 triliun jika dibandingkan
dengan bulan Juli 2018 sebesar Rp 21,33 triliun. Perolehan kontrak itu mencapai 40,35%
dari target yang ditetapkan perusahaan sebesar Rp 58,11 triliun. Puspita Anggraeni,
Sekretaris Perusahaan WIKA mengatakan, pihaknya masih yakin akan menembus
target kontrak yang dipatok (Kontan)
2 Oktober, 2018
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Consolidation
IHSG coba bertahan diatas abnormal lower band pada jangka panjang
IHSG masih dalam pola uptrend jangka panjang yang relatif valid (r-squared = 0.8530)
sejak 758 hari terakhir dimana bergerak normal dalam rentang +/- 1.45 std.deviasi dari
centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 14.57% atau sekitar
111 bar chart. Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG secara harian saat ini antara
+0.47% / - 0.50% atau +27.94/ -29.73 point (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif /
negatif selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Oct 1, 2018) 5,945(-0.535%) Trading range 5,927 - 5,985
Average index performance (%) 6.72 Target
Period 758 - Daily 5,985
r-squared 0.8530 - Weekly 6,033
Volatility (+/-, %) +0.47/ -0.5 - Monthly 6,107
Volatility (+/-, point) +27.94/ -29.73 Stop loss 5,764
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily , Long term trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Aliran dana masuk relatif flat dan volatilitas indeks turun mulai terlihat.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 5,985.0_____ 5,927.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 10/1/2018 Open: 5,951 High: 5,982 Low: 5,945 Close: 5,945 Vol. 6,143,714,816
Prev . Av g. Price: 5,957.1
R-Squared: 0.8530
Period: 758
Std.Dev : 1.45
Volatility (+) : 0.0047
Volatility (-) : -0.0050
V-Ratio : 0.93
Chg.: -0.535%
5,944.6
5,867.68
5,764.06
6,085.86
6,431.77
6,432.67
6,777.67
7,101.28
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
^JKSE - Volume = 6,143,714,816.00, EMA(Volume,18) = 6,543,625,728.00
6,143,714,816
6,543,625,728
2 Oktober, 2018
5
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir pada periode daily. Indikator MFI
optimized relatif flat namun indikator RSI optimized cenderung turun. Pada periode
weekly ,indikator MFI optimized telah meyentuh resistance trenline dan RSI
optimized dan indikator Stochastic % D cenderung turun. Daily resistance terdekat di
5,985 dan support di 5,927.Cut loss level di 5,764.
Figure 2. Daily, Long term trend, MFI optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 60.83
60.8345
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 64.14
64.1388
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
_____ 5,984.9_____ 5,927.6
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 10/1/2018 Open: 5,951 High: 5,982 Low: 5,945 Close: 5,945 Vol. 6,143,714,816
Prev . Av g. Price: 5,957.1
R-Squared: 0.8530
Period: 758
Std.Dev : 1.45
Volatility (+) : 0.0047
Volatility (-) : -0.0050
V-Ratio : 0.94
Chg.: -0.53% 5,898.62
5,944.6
Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
^JKSE - Volume = 6,143,714,816.00, Exponential Mov ing Av erage(Volume,18) = 6,543,625,728.00
6,143,714,816
6,543,625,728
2 Oktober, 2018
6
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Figure 3. Weekly Trend – Uptrend, MFI optimized,RSI optimized & Stochastic %D optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
IHSG akan coba bertahan diatas level 5,957
Pada pergerakkan daily, rata-rata koreksi normal sekitar -0.50%, saat ini di -0.53%.
Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal rata-rata sekitar -1.23%,
sementara saat ini di level -0.53%. Pada pergerakan monthly saat ini di level -0.53%,
normal koreksi sekitar -3.20%.Dengan demikian potensi koreksi masih terlihat namun
terbatas pada pergerakkan daily. Pada Figure 4,5 dan 6 terlihat perkiraan normal trading
range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 4. Daily : 5,927 – 5,985 Figure 5. Weekly : 5,879 – 6,033 Figure 6. Monthly : 5,787– 6,107
x
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 94.56 94.5573
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 51.75
51.7498
^JKSE - Stochastic %D = 70.96, MA = 65.68
70.9621
65.677
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018 Open: 5,951 High: 5,982 Low: 5,945 Close: 5,945 Vol. 6,143,714,816
Prev . Av g. Price: 5,957.1
R-Squared: 0.8513
Period: 162
Std.Dev : 1.45
Volatility (+) : 0.0129
Volatility (-) : -0.0128
V-Ratio : 1.01
Chg.: -0.53%
6,780.47
6,432.12
6,430.42
6,080.37
5,959.98
5,944.6
5,758.07
7,106.17
Oct 2016 Apr Jul Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct
^JKSE - Volume = 6,143,714,816.00, EMA(Volume,26) = 28,837,941,248.00
6,143,714,816
28,837,941,248
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 5,985.0
_____ 5,927.2
5,957.1
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 10/1/2018 Open: 5,951
Prev . Av g. Price: 5,957.1
R-Squared: 0.8530
Period: 758
Std.Dev : 1.45
Volatility (+) : 0.0047
Volatility (-) : -0.0050
V-Ratio : 0.93
Chg.: -0.53%
5,944.6
10 17 24 Oct
^JKSE - Volume = 6,143,714,816.00
6,143,714,816
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,033.6
_____ 5,879.0
5,957.1
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 5,957.1
R-Squared: 0.8513
Period: 162
Std.Dev : 1.45
Volatility (+) : 0.0128
Volatility (-) : -0.0131
V-Ratio : 0.98
Chg.: -0.53%
5,944.6
Sep Oct
^JKSE - Volume = 6,143,714,816.00
6,143,714,816
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 6,107.0
_____ 5,781.9
5,957.1
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 10/31/2018 Open:
Prev . Av g. Price: 5,957.1
R-Squared: 0.8376
Period: 39
Std.Dev : 1.40
Volatility (+) : 0.0252
Volatility (-) : -0.0294
V-Ratio : 0.86
Chg.: -0.53%
5,944.6
Oct 2018 Jul Oct
^JKSE - Volume = 6,143,714,816.00
6,143,714,816
2 Oktober, 2018
7
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Stocks on our focus list
Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper (INKP) - Weekly, Buy on Weakness
Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel
Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih
relatif valid (r-squared = 0.925) selama 63 minggu terakhir yang bergerak normal
dalam rentang +/- 1.76 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari
pergerakan normal sekitar +7.49 % (sekitar 4 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal
pergerakan harga aat ini antara +6.6 %/-4.73% atau +1.133.55 rupiah/ -812.38 rupiah
(rata-rata pergerakan normal ,positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana
terlihat pada Figure 7.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Oct 1, 2018) 17,175 (-1.01%) Trading range 16,450 - 18,400
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 104.23 Target
β (beta) 1.02 - Daily 17,650
Corelation 0.62 - Weekly 18,400
Period 63 - Monthly 20,250
r-squared 0.925 Stop loss 16,400
Volatility (+/-, %) +6.6/ -4.73
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +1.133.55/-812.38
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7. Weekly trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 18,405.6
_____ 16,449.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Indah Kiat Pulp [ INKP.JK ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018 Open: 17,325 High: 17,575 Low: 17,050 Close: 17,175 Vol. 4,031,200
Prev . Av g. Price: 17,266.7
R-Squared: 0.9251
Period: 63
Std.Dev : 1.79
Volatility (+) : 0.0660
Volatility (-) : -0.0473
V-Ratio : 1.39
Chg.: -1.01% 17,175
17,050
16,517.6
17,452.1
20,472
20,472
23,492
23,894.1
Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct
INKP.JK - Volume = 4,031,200.00, MA(Volume,24) = 54,369,832.00
4,031,200
54,369,832
2 Oktober, 2018
8
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun mulai terbatas.
Pada Figure 8, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir terlihat pada indikator MFI
optimized dan indikator Stochastic%D akan menguji suppprt trend line. Weekly
support di 16,450 dan resistance di 18,400. Cut loss level di 16,400.
Figure 8. Weekly , MFI optimized & Will %D optimized
X`Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
INKP.JK - MFI Smoothed = 37.85
37.8497
INKP.JK - Stochastic %D = 38.73, MA = 58.45
38.7324
58.4487
_____ 18,405.6
_____ 16,449.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Indah Kiat Pulp [ INKP.JK ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018 Open: 17,325 High: 17,575 Low: 17,050 Close: 17,175 Vol. 4,031,200
Prev . Av g. Price: 17,266.7
R-Squared: 0.9251
Period: 63
Std.Dev : 1.79
Volatility (+) : 0.0660
Volatility (-) : -0.0473
V-Ratio : 1.39
Chg.: -1.01%
17,175
16,517.6
2016 Apr Jul Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct
INKP.JK - Volume = 4,031,200.00, EMA(Volume,26) = 44,158,224.00
4,031,200
44,158,224
2 Oktober, 2018
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area). Pada pergerakkan daily harga
saat ini di level -1.01, normal koreksi sekitar -2.24%. Pada pergerakkan weekly di level -
1.01%, normal koreksi sekitar -4.73 % sementara itu pada pergerakan monthly saat ini di
-1.01% dan normal koreksi di level -1.04%. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi masih
terlihat namun mulai terbatas. Pada Figure 9,10 dan 11 terlihat perkiraan normal
trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 9. Daily : 16,875 – 17,650 Figure 10. Weekly : 16,450 – 18,400 Figure 11. Monthly : 16,000 – 20,250
x`x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 17,664.8
_____ 16,879.7
11,575
17,266.7
Indah Kiat Pulp [ INKP.JK ] - Daily - 10/1/2018
Prev . Av g. Price: 17,266.7
R-Squared: 0.9281
Period: 280
Std.Dev : 1.80
Volatility (+) : 0.0231
Volatility (-) : -0.0224
V-Ratio : 1.03
Chg.: -1.01%
17,175
10 17 24 Oct
INKP.JK - Volume = 4,031,200.00
4,031,200
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 18,405.6
_____ 16,449.2
11,266.7
17,266.7
Indah Kiat Pulp [ INKP.JK ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018
Prev . Av g. Price: 17,266.7
R-Squared: 0.9251
Period: 63
Std.Dev : 1.79
Volatility (+) : 0.0660
Volatility (-) : -0.0473
V-Ratio : 1.39
Chg.: -1.01%
17,175
Sep Oct
INKP.JK - Volume = 4,031,200.00
4,031,200
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 20,264.4
_____ 16,021.117,266.7
Indah Kiat Pulp [ INKP.JK ] - Monthly - 10/31/2018
Prev . Av g. Price: 17,266.7
R-Squared: 0.8121
Period: 30
Std.Dev : 1.31
Volatility (+) : 0.1736
Volatility (-) : -0.0721
V-Ratio : 2.41
Chg.: -1.01%
17,175
Oct 2018 Jul Oct
INKP.JK - Volume = 4,031,200.00
4,031,200
2 Oktober, 2018
10
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harum Energy (HRUM) – Weekly, Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang
masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.786 ) selama 162 minggu terakhir dan bergerak
normal dalam rentang +/- 1.24 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari
pergerakan normal sekitar +21.36% (sekitar 34 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal
pergerakan harga saat ini antara +6.25/ -4.22 atau +158.75 rupiah / -107.19 rupiah
(rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana
sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 12.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Oct 1, 2018) 2,540 (+5.83%) Trading range 2,390 - 2,650
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 20.08 Target
β (beta) 1.12 - Daily 2,570
Corelation 0.89 - Weekly 2,650
Period 162 - Monthly 2,910
r-squared 0.786 Stop loss 2,240
Volatility (+/-, %) +6.25/ -4.22
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) 158.75/ -107.19
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 12. Weekly trend – Uptrend
x`
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,652.8
_____ 2,391.3
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Harum Energy Tbk [ HRUM.JK ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018 Open: 2,400 High: 2,550 Low: 2,400 Close: 2,540 Vol. 7,963,700
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,496.7
R-Squared: 0.7864
Period: 162
Std.Dev : 1.24
Volatility (+) : 0.0625
Volatility (-) : -0.0422
V-Ratio : 1.48
Chg.: 5.83%
2,540
2,325.58
2,243.58
2,600.56
2,826.16
3,062.97
3,082.72
3,525.38
3,839.86
HRUM.JK - Volume = 7,963,700.00, EMA(Volume,43) = 18,380,204.00
7,963,700
18,380,204
2 Oktober, 2018
11
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat
Pada Figure 13, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI optimized , indikator
Stochastic %D optimized masih cenderung menguat. Daily dan Weekly resistance di
2,570 dan 2,650. Sementara itu daily dan weekly support di 2,500 dan 2,390. Cut loss
level di 2,240.
Figure 13. Weekly, MFI optimized , W%R optimized & Stochastic %D
,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
HRUM.JK - MFI Smoothed = 61.69
61.6926
HRUM.JK - Stochastic %D = 80.00, MA = 39.32
80
39.3236
_____ 2,652.8
_____ 2,391.3
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Harum Energy Tbk [ HRUM.JK ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018 Open: 2,400 High: 2,550 Low: 2,400 Close: 2,540 Vol. 7,963,700
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,496.7
R-Squared: 0.7864
Period: 162
Std.Dev : 1.24
Volatility (+) : 0.0625
Volatility (-) : -0.0422
V-Ratio : 1.48
Chg.: 5.83%
2,540
2,506.71
2,243.58
2,826.16
Jul Oct 2017 Apr Jul Oct 2018 Apr Jul Oct
HRUM.JK - Volume = 7,963,700.00, EMA(Volume,43) = 18,380,204.00
7,963,700
18,380,204
2 Oktober, 2018
12
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing
Periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Lebih lanjut potensi kenaikkan
normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +1.95%, saat ini di level +5.83%. Sementara
itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +6.25% saat ini harga di level
+5.83% Pada pergerakan monthly kenaikkan normal sekitar +8.34% saat ini di +5.83%.
Pada Figure 14,15 dan 16 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing
periode.
Figure 14. Daily : 2,500 – 2,570 Figure 15. Weekly : 2,390– 2,650 Figure 16. Monthly : 2,290 – 2,910
x`
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,545.3
_____ 2,444.6
3,023.3
3,122.9
2,500
2,580
2,662.4
2,496.7
2,570
Harum Energy Tbk [ HRUM.JK ] - Daily - 10/1/2018
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,496.7
R-Squared: 0.7367
Period: 43
Std.Dev : 1.11
Volatility (+) : 0.0195
Volatility (-) : -0.0209
V-Ratio : 0.93
Chg.: 5.83% 2,540
10 17 24 Oct
HRUM.JK - Volume = 7,963,700.00 7,963,700
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,652.8
_____ 2,391.3
2.496.7
Harum Energy Tbk [ HRUM.JK ] - Weekly
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,496.7
R-Squared: 0.7864
Period: 162
Std.Dev : 1.24
Volatility (+) : 0.0625
Volatility (-) : -0.0422
V-Ratio : 1.48
Chg.: 5.83%
2,540
Sep Oct
HRUM.JK - Volume = 7,963,700.00
7,963,700
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,907.4
_____ 2,288.4
2,496.7
Harum Energy Tbk [ HRUM.JK ] - Monthly
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,496.7
R-Squared: 0.7783
Period: 40
Std.Dev : 1.22
Volatility (+) : 0.1645
Volatility (-) : -0.0834
V-Ratio : 1.97
Chg.: 5.83%
2,540
Oct 2018 Jul Oct
HRUM.JK - Volume = 7,963,700.00
7,963,700
2 Oktober, 2018
13
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) – Daily , Trading Buy
Harga akan coba naik dan tembus normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum potensi kenaikan masih terlihat dan harga akan coba naik mendekati
normal lower band pada uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared
0.773 selama 132 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.19 std.deviasi
dari centerline. Peluang harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar +22.74%
(sekitar 30 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini antara
+2.25 %/ -2.11 % atau +45.45 rupiah / -42.62 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal
positif / negatif, selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 17.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Oct 1, 2018) 2,020 (-1.463%) Normal trading range 2,000 - 2,090
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 50.19 Target
β (beta) 1.18 - Daily 2,090
Corelation 0.71 - Weekly 2,140
Period 132 - Monthly 2,350
r-squared 0.773 Stop loss 1,990
Volatility (+/-, %) +2.25/ -2.11
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +45.45/ -42.62
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. Daily Trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
,
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,089.4
_____ 2,000.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Japfa Comfeed In [ JPFA.JK ] - Daily - 10/1/2018 Open: 2,050 High: 2,090 Low: 2,020 Close: 2,020 Vol. 5,883,700
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,043.3
R-Squared: 0.7696
Period: 132
Std.Dev : 1.19
Volatility (+) : 0.0225
Volatility (-) : -0.0211
V-Ratio : 1.07
Chg.: -1.463%
2,020
1,967.26
2,029.62
2,061.99
2,109.23
2,145.67
2,225.12
2,225.12
2,388.25
2,482.98
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,883,700.00, EMA(Volume,27) = 8,423,824.00
5,883,700
8,423,824
2 Oktober, 2018
14
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik mulai terlihat.
Pada Figure 18, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi. Indikator MFI optimized dan indkator
Stochastic %D optimized cenderung naik. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi
kenaikkan masih terlihat. Perkiraan daily dan weekly support di 2,000 dan 1,950. Daily
dan weekly resistance di 1,950 dan 2,140. Cut loss level di 1,990.
Figure 18. Daily ,MFI optimized & Stochastic %D optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
JPFA.JK - MFI Smoothed = 42.39
42.391
JPFA.JK - Stochastic %D = 32.35, MA = 24.04
32.3529
24.0355
_____ 2,089.4
_____ 2,000.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Japfa Comfeed In [ JPFA.JK ] - Daily - 10/1/2018 Open: 2,050 High: 2,090 Low: 2,020 Close: 2,020 Vol. 5,883,700
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,043.3
R-Squared: 0.7696
Period: 132
Std.Dev : 1.19
Volatility (+) : 0.0225
Volatility (-) : -0.0211
V-Ratio : 1.07
Chg.: -1.46%
2,020
2,029.62
2,109.23
2,145.67
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,883,700.00, EMA(Volume,27) = 8,423,824.00
5,883,700
8,423,824
2 Oktober, 2018
15
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut potensi
kenaikkan normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +2.25%, saat ini di level +1.46%. Pada
pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -4.39%, saat ini di level -1.49% dan pada
pergerakkan monthly saat ini level -1.46% sementara koreksi normal di -9.48% dan
masuk bulan ke dua. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi mulai terbatas dengan
kecenderungan menguat pada pergerakkan daily. Pada Figure 19,20 dan 21 terlihat
perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 19. Daily : 2,000 – 2,090 Figure 20. Weekly : 1,950 – 2,140 Figure 21. Monthly : 1,850 – 2,350
,,
,
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal positif/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal positifl/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area. Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area. BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area. SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area. Trading Buy: : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara. Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,089.4
_____ 2,000.2
1,498.3
1,545.7
2,043.3
Japfa Comfeed In [ JPFA.JK ] - Daily - 10/1/2018
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,043.3
R-Squared: 0.7696
Period: 132
Std.Dev : 1.19
Volatility (+) : 0.0225
Volatility (-) : -0.0211
V-Ratio : 1.07
Chg.: -1.46%
2,020
10 17 24 Oct
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,883,700.00
5,883,700
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,137.5
_____ 1,953.7
2,043.3
Japfa Comfeed In [ JPFA.JK ] - Weekly - 10/7/2018
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,043.3
R-Squared: 0.8178
Period: 62
Std.Dev : 1.34
Volatility (+) : 0.0461
Volatility (-) : -0.0439
V-Ratio : 1.05
Chg.: -1.46%
2,020
Sep Oct
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,883,700.00
5,883,700
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,345.0
_____ 1,849.7
2,043.3
Japfa Comfeed In [ JPFA.JK ] - Monthly - 10/31/2018
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,043.3
R-Squared: 0.7391
Period: 196
Std.Dev : 1.12
Volatility (+) : 0.1476
Volatility (-) : -0.0948
V-Ratio : 1.56
Chg.: -1.46%
2,020
Oct 2018 Jul Oct
JPFA.JK - Volume = 5,883,700.00
5,883,700
2 Oktober, 2018
16
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
V
Note: The latest figure for India are Sep 28th, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13,800
14,200
14,600
15,000
5,400
5,800
6,200
6,600
7/2 7/30 8/27 9/24
(IDR) (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
-0.5
1.1
-1.2
0.5
-0.4
0.6
-0.3
3.9
-4
0
4
8
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative(%, %p)
-11
66 25 15
-13
-234
679 645
94 32
-35
-896 -1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Korea Taiwan Indonesia ThailandPhilippines India
1 Day 5 Days (USDmn) (USDmn)
80
90
100
110
6/27 7/25 8/22 9/19
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
80
90
100
110
120
7/2 7/30 8/27 9/24
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
70
80
90
100
110
07/18 07/18 08/18 09/18
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
80
85
90
95
100
105
07/18 07/18 08/18 09/18
(D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum
2 Oktober, 2018
17
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,945 6,726,321 -0.5 1.1 -1.2 0.5 15.6 13.6 2.3 2.1 17.0 3.1
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 23,950 590,487 -0.8 0.1 -3.4 17.8 23.2 25.6 4.1 4.5 19.1 19.0
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 6,700 312,667 -0.4 -0.7 -2.9 0.0 18.1 15.3 2.2 1.9 13.0 12.8
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 3,180 392,240 1.0 5.6 0.0 4.3 15.3 14.1 2.7 2.4 18.5 18.2
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 7,500 139,865 1.4 1.7 -3.8 0.3 13.6 10.5 1.9 1.5 14.7 14.7
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 2,630 27,852 0.0 -0.4 -4.4 -13.2 18.1 17.4 1.7 1.7 9.9 10.5
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,770 438,519 -2.1 0.5 -1.6 -4.6 43.4 33.7 16.1 12.5 37.1 37.4
Gudang Garam GGRM 73,500 141,420 -0.7 1.0 0.7 13.5 20.8 18.9 3.8 3.3 19.0 18.1
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,825 102,916 0.0 0.3 1.7 -0.6 27.3 26.7 5.3 5.2 20.5 20.7
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 6,025 52,902 2.1 0.8 -5.5 -29.5 16.1 12.1 2.1 1.7 13.9 14.4
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,385 64,922 0.4 7.4 3.0 -17.3 33.0 26.6 6.0 4.9 19.1 19.3
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 46,300 353,269 -1.5 -1.6 5.6 -7.7 60.9 48.8 82.4 66.2 141.8 143.6
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 11,950 23,000 -3.6 -0.6 -11.5 -20.2 12.6 11.4 1.4 1.2 11.4 11.3
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,240 8,460 -2.7 -3.5 -11.1 -12.1 12.7 10.4 1.2 1.0 9.7 10.0
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,280 12,192 -0.8 4.9 -1.5 -15.0 18.2 16.6 3.5 3.1 21.0 19.4
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 2,800 29,926 1.4 -0.4 -11.9 -24.3 84.6 72.6 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8
Jasa Marga JSMR 4,490 32,588 0.4 3.0 -0.9 -20.9 21.1 14.2 3.1 2.1 15.3 14.9
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,240 54,301 -0.4 10.3 4.7 43.6 21.5 18.7 1.0 1.1 4.5 5.6
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,650 25,602 0.4 1.3 1.8 -12.7 12.3 21.0 9.2 12.6 99.8 61.6
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3,670 363,558 0.8 3.7 5.2 -20.9 19.9 15.7 4.7 3.8 25.0 25.9
Soechi Lines SOCI 143 1,009 2.1 3.6 -8.9 -48.2 5.6 1.9 0.4 N/A 7.1 11.3
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 218 5,643 5.8 7.9 0.0 -33.9 23.0 10.0 1.9 1.1 8.3 11.4
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,600 56,943 -3.3 5.2 1.6 -5.9 29.1 25.1 2.0 1.9 7.0 7.8
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 5,000 81,990 -1.5 -6.1 0.4 81.8 19.7 32.3 3.1 5.2 16.8 16.4
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 17,625 64,882 -4.7 6.8 -0.6 -8.4 43.4 31.4 3.3 2.5 7.3 8.1
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 2,020 23,688 -1.5 -1.5 -8.2 61.0 14.8 19.4 1.6 2.4 11.0 12.8
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 26,000 29,378 0.6 2.3 -8.1 32.7 6.6 8.0 1.7 1.9 27.1 25.3
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,840 58,854 0.3 1.1 -1.3 3.7 9.1 7.7 1.3 1.2 14.6 14.1
Aneka Tambang ANTM 825 19,825 -2.4 3.1 -5.2 28.9 110.0 N/A 0.8 1.1 0.7 -0.5
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,600 35,771 -3.0 0.3 -5.3 38.5 N/A N/A 1.2 1.3 -0.8 -0.6
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 4,400 50,691 1.9 6.8 8.6 118.9 5.8 13.5 1.9 3.6 37.3 29.3
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 32,775 122,255 -0.7 1.0 -4.7 2.1 17.8 16.1 2.9 2.9 17.2 17.2
AKR Corporindo AKRA 3,960 15,898 7.9 11.9 9.7 -44.6 28.1 14.0 3.4 2.1 16.7 15.2
Global Mediacom BMTR 402 5,708 -0.5 -4.3 -6.9 -32.4 16.5 N/A 0.9 N/A 5.3 N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 6,850 19,988 -1.1 2.6 -8.7 -29.2 15.3 10.2 12.5 7.6 91.2 90.4
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 810 11,564 0.6 -4.1 -10.5 -42.6 11.8 8.0 1.9 1.1 16.3 15.4
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 185 1,393 -1.6 -4.1 -8.4 -72.0 N/A N/A 2.1 0.5 -69.0 -11.5
Surya Citra Media SCMA 1,820 26,611 -2.9 1.1 -13.3 -15.0 27.2 17.5 9.3 6.9 36.3 41.9
Siloam International Hospital SILO 2,990 4,861 2.4 1.0 -3.5 -69.9 140.2 42.9 2.5 0.8 2.0 2.5
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,165 22,422 0.9 3.6 -2.9 -34.9 6.6 7.5 1.3 0.9 21.4 12.9
Adhi Karya ADHI 1,410 5,021 1.4 4.1 -5.4 -29.5 13.0 9.8 1.1 0.9 9.1 8.5
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 288 5,659 0.7 1.4 -11.7 -24.6 5.1 4.8 0.8 0.7 17.8 12.8
Ciputra Development CTRA 880 16,333 0.6 15.8 4.1 -25.7 24.7 16.7 1.6 1.2 6.9 8.4
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 338 7,803 -1.7 0.6 -5.1 -54.3 18.1 7.9 0.5 0.4 3.0 5.3
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 1,585 9,827 3.9 3.3 -16.6 -34.8 11.3 6.9 1.4 0.9 13.8 13.1
Pakuwon Jati PWON 505 24,321 -1.9 0.0 -1.9 -17.9 17.6 12.4 3.2 2.3 19.7 19.6
Summarecon Agung SMRA 630 9,089 -3.8 4.1 -4.5 -42.7 37.6 31.8 2.1 1.3 5.7 4.9
Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,450 13,006 6.2 5.5 -6.5 -19.7 11.6 10.6 1.1 1.0 10.0 10.0
Waskita Karya WSKT 1,800 24,433 5.9 4.0 -5.0 -0.6 7.8 7.4 2.1 1.6 31.0 22.7
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 7,325 296,542 -0.3 2.8 1.0 -7.6 17.8 15.2 2.7 2.4 16.0 15.9
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
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Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,569.7 -1.5 ABMM IJ 2300 6,332 15.00
Mining 1,987.8 1.4
AKRA IJ 3960 15,898 7.90
Basic-Industry 800.0 -2.4 WIKA IJ 1450 13,006 6.23
Miscellaneous Industry 1,254.7 0.1 BYAN IJ 19650 65,500 5.93
Consumer Goods 2,468.7 -1.5 WSKT IJ 1800 24,433 5.88
Property & Construction 425.6 0.7
HRUM IJ 2540 6,867 5.83
Infrastructure 1,045.9 0.6 GIAA IJ 218 5,643 5.83
Finance 1,074.9 -0.2 MEDC IJ 1055 18,773 5.50
Trade 816.8 -1.2 DOID IJ 790 6,766 5.33
Composite 5,944.6 -0.5 PTPP IJ 1585 9,827 3.93 Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
BYAN IJ 5.9 19,650 HMSP IJ -2.1 3,770
BBRI IJ 1.0 3,180 UNVR IJ -1.5 46,300
TLKM IJ 0.8 3,670 BBCA IJ -0.8 23,950
POLL IJ 17.4 1,620 AMRT IJ -9.7 840
BBNI IJ 1.4 7,500 INTP IJ -4.7 17,625 Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
12:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
12:30am AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50%
1:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.0 43.3
2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.2% -0.5%
2:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 6.7%
3:00am EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 28.2K 47.0K
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 52.8 52.9
5:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
10:00am USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index -1.3%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.8M 16.7M
12:45pm USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
6:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 52.2
7:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.1%
8:00pm NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -1.1%
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
9:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 1.2% -5.2%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
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