Www.reag-aa.com THE SEASONALITY IN THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR.

www.reag-aa.com

THE SEASONALITY IN THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR

The Italian tourism sector: some ways to correct seasonal adjustment

Elena Zanlorenzi, Head of ResearchEuropean R&D Office

REAG

23-26.06.2010Milan, Italy

INDEX

3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT 1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

4. CONCLUSIONS4. CONCLUSIONS

2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR2. THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR

1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

Tourism is a seasonal phenomenon:• natural causes: climatic seasons

• institutional causes: school holidays, time off

• social causes: public or religious holidays

Tourism seasonality affects the entire tourism industry:• tour operators

• travel agencies

• hotels

• transports

Tourism seasonality = monthly fluctuation of the number of tourist nights

Seasonality losses:• additional costs for the PA (ex. parking)

• greater incidence of the fixed costs in the hotels turnover

• decrease of the revenues

• growth of the average room rate

• tourist overcrowding in the high season

• temporary employment

1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT1. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

The Italian tourist sector is historically affected by seasonal criticalities

• in many locations the tourist season lasts only for 4-5 months per year

• for the remaining 7-8 months hotels and leisure activities are forced to close

• in these months of low season expenses could be higher than revenues

• Italian seaside tourist areas are the most affected by seasonal adjustments

• even for this reason return on investment could not be so attractive for the main international brands

• during the last years some operators tried to get round this matter diversifying the offer: SPA,

wellness centres, business centres, etc.

• these are only local and segmented operation that do not lead to a resolution of the problem

Some evidences about seasonality:• the balanced use of touristic structures does not exclude monthly fluctuations but these are of low

intensity

• different tourism typologies present different seasonality

• cultural tourism is the less affected by seasonality

• seaside tourism is typically affected by seasonality (summer)

• mountain tourism could have 2 seasons (summer and winter)

• wellness tourism could last for 4 seasons

• business tourism is affected by seasonality during holidays


The tourism economic impact • tourism contributes to GDP for 9,6%

• tourism contribute is equal to 152 billion of euro

• direct tourism industry contributes to GDP for 3,9%

• total overnight stays: 860 mln (of which 358 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)

• total Italian overnight stays: 546 mln (of which 204 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)

• tourists expenditure: 75.862 mln of euro (of which 49.495 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)

• Italian tourists expenditure: 44.049 mln of euro (of which 24.900 mln in hotel and extra-hotel accommodation)

26,5%

16,2%

5,5%15,1%

13,4%

9,9%

9,2%2,4% 1,8%

Accomodations

Restaurants

Bars/coffees

Dress&shoes

Leisure activities

Manufacturing industry

Food

Books&newspapers

Transports

TOURISTS EXPENDITURE BY TYPOLOGY

(2009)Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data


OVERNIGHT STAYS BY DESTINATION (% -

2009) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data (2009)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Holiday houses

Hotel and extra-hotel accomodations

TOURISTS EXPENDITURE BY

DESTINATION (% - 2009) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data 0%

5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Holiday houses

Hotel and extra-hotel accomodations


HOTELS TURNOVERSource: Reag work-out on AICA data

HOTELS TURNOVER BY ROOMSource: Reag work-out on AICA data

6,3%

-9,1%

4,3% 3,5%

-2,4%

-15,9%

-5,5%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

-0,1%

-2,7%

1,0%0,4% 0,5%

-7,3%-8,1%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


ROOM OCCUPATION RATE (% - 2009) Source: Reag work-out on AICA data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

AVERAGE REVENUE PER AVAILABLE

ROOM (% - 2009) Source: Reag work-out on AICA data

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160



ITALIANS OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on different sources

FOREIGNERS OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on different sources

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


1987

2007

0

5

10

15

20

25


1987

2007


OVERNIGHT STAYS IN CULTURAL

DESTINATIONS (% - 2007) Source: Reag work-out on Osservatorio Nazionale del Turismo data

OVERNIGHT STAYS IN SEASIDE


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



OVERNIGHT STAYS IN MOUNTAIN


OVERNIGHT STAYS IN NATURALISTIC


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%



OVERNIGHT STAYS IN LAKE


OVERNIGHT STAYS IN SPA


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%



Seasonality indexes

• seasonality rate: maximum overnight stays (Smax)/minimum overnight stays (Smin)

• seasonal peak factor (S’): Smax /average overnight stays (Sm)

• maximal utilization constrained by seasonality (MUS): 100/S’

• seasonality underutilization factor (SUF): 100 - MUS

Italy Cultural SPA Nature Lake Mountain Seaside

Seasonality rate 6,2 2,6 5,3 6,2 9,0 13,4 23,8

Seasonal peak factor 2,5 1,4 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,5 3,3

Maximal utilization constrained by seasonality (MUS)

40,2 70,6 63,8 47,9 44,7 39,6 30,2

Seasonality underutilization factor (SUF)

59,8 29,4 36,2 52,1 55,3 60,4 69,8

3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT3. SOME WAYS TO CORRECT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT

During the last years some operators tried to get round this matter

diversifying the offer

Some structures provide their clients with :• SPA

• wellness center

• business center

• golf

• etc.

These devices are only local and segmented operation that do not lead

to a resolution of the problem

Identify some categories till now ignored by the tourism sector: could the

investment in these groups of people help the renewal of the sector?


Children (< 6 years old) tourism

• number: 3.400.719 (2019: 3.255.338; -4,3%)

• household income: € 35.432 (+20,9% respect

Italian average income)

• the 31% of the households falls within the 2

classes with the higher income

• tourism propensity: 34,3%

• % on total overnight stays: 4,1%

• overnight stays: 6,7 mln

CHILDREN OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources

OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources

• potential demand: 12,9 mln of overnight stays

• potential demand: 7,9% on total overnight stays

• increase in tourism expenditure: +12,0% (direct

2,2 bln of euro; indirect 3,6 bln of euro)

• seasonality rate: 4,0 (before 4,3)

• seasonal peak factor: 2,0 (before 2,1)

• MUS: 49,5 (before 48,0)

• SUF: 50,5 (before 52,0)

14,5%

25,0%

46,6%

13,9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

jan-mar apr-jun jul-sep oct-dec

12,7%

23,3%

52,0%

12,0%13,4%

23,3%

50,5%

12,7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Before

After


Elderly people (> 65 years old) tourism

• number: 11.457.143 (2019: 13.184.101; +15,1%)

• household income: € 21.117 (-27,9% respect







ELDERLY PEOPLE OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources








• MUS: 52,8 (before 48,0)

• SUF: 47,2 (before 52,0)

17,1%

24,1%

44,0%

14,8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


12,7%

23,3%

52,0%

12,0%

14,8%23,6%

47,3%

14,3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Before

After


Singles tourism

• number: 6.910.716 (2019: 8.389.609; +21,4%)

• household income: € 17.546 (-40,1% respect







SINGLES OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources








• MUS: 50,8 (before 48,0)

• SUF: 49,2 (before 52,0)

16,9%

24,6%

41,9%

16,7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


12,7%

23,3%

52,0%

12,0%14,0%

23,4%

49,2%

13,3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Before

After


Groups tourism

• household income: € 29.308





GROUPS OVERNIGHT STAYS (%) Source: Reag work-out on various sources








• MUS: 50,8 (before 48,8)

• SUF: 51,2 (before 52,0)

24,6% 25,2%27,2%

23,1%

0%

10%

20%

30%


12,7%

23,3%

52,0%

12,0%13,0%

23,3%

51,2%

12,5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Before

After


Italy Groups Children Single Elderly people

Seasonality rate 6,2 4,1 4,0 3,7 3,3

Seasonal peak factor 2,5 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9

Maximal utilization constrained by seasonality (MUS)

40,2 48,8 49,5 50,8 52,8

Seasonality underutilization factor (SUF)

59,8 51,2 50,5 49,2 47,2


12,7%

23,3%

52,0%

12,0%

16,5%

23,7%

43,7%

16,1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Before After

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

for any other info, please contact

[email protected]

No part of this presentation may be reproduced or trasmitted in any form or by any means,

whitout written permission of REAG (Real Estate Advisory Group S.p.A.). For any information

please contact:

[email protected]

Www.reag-aa.com THE SEASONALITY IN THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR.

Documents

Transcript of Www.reag-aa.com THE SEASONALITY IN THE ITALIAN TOURISM SECTOR.