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www.hsl.gov.ukAn Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

www.hsl.gov.ukAn Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Scanning the Horizon

Small Business Trade Association Forum

Roger Brentnall

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Agenda

• Horizon Scanning Background

• Socioeconomic Trends– Shape of Industry

– Demography

– Working Patterns

• Technology “Snippets”

• Scenarios for 2017

http://www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm


Scanning the Horizon

What about the future?


Horizon Scanning

“…the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities

and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to)

those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon

scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as

persistent problems or trends.”

Definition of Chief Scientific Adviser’s Committee,

September 2004

“Looking Ahead – Looking Across”


Horizon Scanning

To:

• inform strategic thinking, planning and target setting;

• identify possible changes of direction and emphasis and assist in formulation and delivery of HSE’s strategic programmes.

By:

• systematically anticipating, identifying and preparing for new or changing risks in workplaces and work activities, which may appear on a 3-10 year horizon.


Key Drivers

• Science and technology

• The workplace and working practices

• Socio-economic trends that affect the labour market

• Trends in public attitudes towards risk

• The UK political agenda

• The European Union

• International developments (globalisation)


Hot Topics

• CO2 Capture & Storage

• Complex Working Practices

• Cyber Security

• Demographics

• Flexible Working Patterns

• Future of Keyboards

• Gene Therapy

• Human Performance Enhancement

• Hydrogen Economy

• Nanotechnology

• New & Emerging Pests

• Obesity

• Pervasive Computing

• Rapid Manufacturing

• Recycling

• Robotics

• Solvents Directive

• Sustainability

• TeraHertz Technology


SocioeconomicTrends


Topics

• Shape of Industry – Growth in SME’s

– Sectoral Trends

• Demography– An Ageing Workforce

– Impact of Migrant Workers

• Changing Working Patterns– Increasing Flexibility/”Precarious” Working


Growth in SME’s

• Of the 4.3 Million Businesses in the UK99% Have <50 Employees

• Number of SME’s is Growing at Around 50,000 p.a.– Business Services, Leisure,

Catering, Construction

• Challenges for HSE– Effective Communication

– H&S Management

– Appropriateness of Guidance

UK Enterprises 2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

Small (0-49) Medium (50-249) Large (>250)

Enterprises Employment Turnover


Sectoral Trends

Small Business Employment by Sector

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Em

plo

yees

(m

iio

)

Business Services

Retail

Manufacturing

Construction

Personal Services

Health/Social

Hotel/Catering

Transport/Distribution

Agriculture

Financial

Source: BERR Enterprise Directorate


An Ageing Workforce

• Population Trends– By the Late 2020’s 40% of Population Will be Over 50 and

28% of Population Will be Over 60

• Staying in Employment– Those Who Enjoy Work & Wish to Carry on vs. Those Who Will be

Forced to Continue for Economic Reasons

• Workplace Trends– Employment Rate for Workers Over 50 has Increased by 8% Since

1993

– Projected that by 2020 there will be 775,000 People “Economically Active” Over 65 (33% Increase from 2005)


Age-Related Performance

• No Evidence for Deterioration in Most Types of Work at Least up to Age 70 (DTI, 2003)

• Some Functions such as Knowledge & Reasoning May Improve with Age (Ilmarien, 2001; Griffiths, 1997)

• Detection, Recall & Recognition Tasks Tend to Become Less Reliable with Age (Bell, 2005)

• Wide Individual Differences in Changes in Cognitive Ability with Age (Wilson, 2002)

– Other Factors Likely to be Involved (Diet, Exercise etc.)


Migrant Workers

• Recent Influx from “Accession 8” Countries– Poland Heads Top 5 Sources of Migrant Workers:

– Over 80% Under 34 Years of Age

– Broader Geographical Spread

– Range of Occupations but Tending to be Low Paid

Source: DWP NI Data


Migrant Workers

• Economic and Other Benefits Recognised

• Research Report RR502– No Evidence to Suggest Higher Risk per se– Migrants More Likely to Work in Sectors with H&S Concerns

• Health & Safety Implications– Language Skills– Lack of Familiarity with Industry/Type of Work– Different H&S Culture– Access to H&S Training– Knowledge of Rights

• Foreign Language Guidance

• Dedicated Webpages


Working Patterns

• “Flexibility” Increasing– Home/Tele-working, Part-Time, Shift Working, Second Jobs

• Employment more “Precarious”– Short-Term Contracts, Agencies, Temporary Workers, Self-

Employment

Teleworker rates by type of teleworker; UK

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

%

Works indifferentplaces usinghome as abase

Works mainlyin own home


Implications

• Need to Ensure Effective (H&S) Training

• Increased Risk of Injury to Part Time & Temporary Workers ?

• Clarify Responsibility for Management of H&S – Agency vs. Employer

• Flexible/Precarious Working– Greater Personal Control, Productivity

– Increased Stress, Social Isolation & Work/Life “Blurring”

• Monitoring/Ensuring the Safety of Remote Working Locations


Technology Developments


HSE Scenarios for 2017


HSE Scenarios for 2017

Decreased UK global competitiveness

Increased UK global competitiveness

Personal responsibility, pro-active adoption of technology, management of risk

Blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of riskTough Choices Boom and Blame

Digital Rose GardenA Virtue of Necessity


Summary

• Horizon Scanning Background

• Socioeconomic Trends– Shape of Industry

– Demography

– Working Patterns

• Technology “Snippets”

• Scenarios for 2017

http://www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm

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