WP4: Finalisation of D12 and related work What has the completed work told us? What additional...
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Transcript of WP4: Finalisation of D12 and related work What has the completed work told us? What additional...
WP4: Finalisation of D12 and related work
•What has the completed work told us?
•What additional analyses could/should be undertaken of D12 results?
•What papers can be produced based on D12 work?
Principles of verification
• Predictor dataset : NCEP reanalysis• Predictand datasets: “FIC dataset” and regional sets• Study regions• Stations within regions• Core indices• Verification period: 1979-1994 (for compatibility with
ERA15-driven regional models)• Training period: 1958-1978 & 1995-2000• Statistics: RMSE, SPEARMAN-RANK-CORR for each
station/index
Study Regions
UK: 6 stations
Iberia: 16 stationsGreece: 8 stations
Italy: 7 stations
Alps: 10 stations
Germany: 10 stations
The ‘FIC dataset’
Partners/regions
Iberia Greece Alps Germany UK Italy
UEA x x x x x x
KCL x x
ARPA-SMR x x
ADGB x
AUTH x x
USTUTT-IWS & FTS x x
ETH x x
FIC x x x x x x
DMI x x x x x x
UNIBE x
CNRS x x
Questions• Is the performance consistent among stations for a given method, region,
core index and season?• Is there any difference in performance of the methods between winter and
summer?• Is there any systematic difference in performance between regions?• Is there any systematic difference between
– Direct method: The seasonal core indices are downscaled using seasonal circulation indices
– Indirect method: Daily precipitation/temperature values are generated and the seasonal core indices are calculated from these.
• Can a ’best’ method be selected at this stage?
Answers to questions• Is the performance consistent among stations for a given method, region,
core index and season? Large scatter between stations• Is there any difference in performance of the methods between winter and
summer? Generally better performance in winter in areas affected by Atlantic weather systems
• Is there any systematic difference in performance between regions? Generally better performance in the regions affected by the westerlies
• Is there any systematic difference between– Direct method: The seasonal core indices are downscaled using seasonal
circulation indices– Indirect method: Daily precipitation/temperature values are generated and the
seasonal core indices are calculated from these.No obvious systematic difference between direct and indirect methods
• Can a ’best’ method be selected at this stage? Requires further work
Reasons?
• Inhomogeneity of station data
• Too short verification and calibration period
• Missing predictors
• Stochasticity