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Transcript of World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision Gerhard K. Heilig United Nations, Department of...
World Population ProspectsThe 2010 Revision
Gerhard K. Heilig
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section
www.unpopulation.org
5 May 2011
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
WPP preparation process: Overview
Estimation of population, fertility, mortality and migration
Probabilistic projection of total fertility
Projection of life expectancy
Projection of migration
Table of content
1
2
3
0
4
Uni
ted
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ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
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ocia
l Affa
irs –
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ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Team
Chief
Gerhard K. Heilig
Population Affairs Officer
Danan Gu
Population Affairs Officer
Nan Li
Population Affairs Officer
Thomas Spoorenberg
Population Affairs Officer
Kirill Andreev
Population Affairs Officer
Patrick Gerland
Editorial Assistant
Neena Koshy
Information Systems Assistant
Sarada Ravinuthala
Information Systems Assistant
Chandrasekhar Yamarthy
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Mandate
Prepare the World Population Prospects Official United Nations population projections, used throughout the UN System Recent revisions prepared every second year Latest revision: 2010 (230 countries) 22 revisions since the early 1950s
Prepare the World Urbanization Prospects Estimates and projections of urban population for 230 countries Estimates and projections of major urban agglomerations (about 5000) Latest revision: 2009 Since 1988
Publish results, develop methodology Web sites, wall charts, CD-ROMs/DVDs, databases Model life tables, probabilistic projections (Bayesian Hierarchical Model)
Develop specialized databases and software DemoBase, DemoData, DataArchive Estimation and projection software, probabilistic models, data checking
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
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l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
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1
World Population Prospects: What we do
60% of Workload
Update and development of new databases and software, server
and database maintenance, backup
Start of WPP
EvaluationAdjustments
Data Collection 230 countries / areas
Uploading to DatabaseCalculation of Variants
Aggregation of Regions
Epidem. Modelingfor AIDS Countries
3
CD-ROMs / DVDs
Online DatabaseWeb Sites
Statistical ReportsVol. 1, 2
Early Release Data
Wall Chart
25% of Workload
15% of Workload
Checking of Results
2
Methodological Report(on web site)
Start of WUP
Fixing of Errors
Data Collection, EstimationProjection,
Aggregation, Checking Output Production
0
Consulting / Feedback
Responding to clients
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
0
1. Census data + post-enumeration surveys(from United Nations Demographic Yearbook database and directly from National Statistical Offices)
2. All available demographic and health surveys (DHS, DSS, MICS, WHS, etc.) for estimating fertility and mortality
3. Estimates from population and vital registers (from statistical reports of National Statistical Offices or their web sites)
4. Scientific reports and data collections (Human Mortality Database, child mortality estimates, etc.)
5. Data and estimates provided by other international agencies (CELADE, Regional Commissions, EUROSTAT, ESCAP, UNICEF, UNAIDS, WHO)
WPP data sources
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
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ent o
f Eco
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ic a
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ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Methodology
The UN approach to estimating population (by age and sex), fertility, mortality and migration
Availability & Data Quality
1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
0
1,000
2,000
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4,000
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t H
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on
ten
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R o
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: Z
an
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of
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gan
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and
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ited
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tes
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gin
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as
Isla
nd
2005-08
2000-04
1995-99
1990-94
1985-89
1980-84
1975-79
1970-74
1965-69
1960-64
1955-59
1950-54
Population statistics are sufficient for cohort component projection.Projection benefits significantly from Census data.
Population statistics Insufficient for cohort component projection. Projection can be done only with Census data.
Figure 2: Data Availability from Estimates. Population in five-year age groups by sex: Number of data points 1950-2008 in five-year intervals
Source: UNPD, DemoData. Chart by GKH.
Population statistics usually sufficent for cohort component projection. Estimation often can be improved with Census data.
Register Data: Population by Age and Sex
Sufficient for cohort-component projection
Partially sufficient for cohort-component projection
Not sufficient for projection
≈ 2/3 of countries have insufficient population estimates by age and sexto establish consistent time-seriesfrom 1950 to present
1
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ocia
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irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Child Mortality Estimation (WPP2008) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Adult Mortality Estimation (WPP2008) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Fertility Estimation (WPP2008) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Population from Censuses 1
Uni
ted
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ions
Dep
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ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Population from Censuses 1
Under-reported migrant workers
Under-reported births
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
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ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Mortality: 1q0, 5q0 (Senegal) 1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Mortality: 5q0 (Senegal)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
A. Birth histories
UNPD Spline 1978 WFS1986 DHS1992-1993 DHS1997 DHS1999 DHS2000 MICS2005 DHS2008-2009 MICS
Saint-Louis (SEN), VR Bamako (MLI), VR
Ouaga. (DSS)
Mauritius, VR
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.
00.
10.
20.
30.
40.
5
B. CEB/CS
Fouta Toro (Maures)1960-1961 survey1978 WFS1986 DHS1992-1993 DHS1996 MICS1997 DHS1999 DHS2005 DHS2006 MICS2008-2009 MICS
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
C. Household deaths
Fouta Toro (Toucouleurs & Peuls)Fouta Toro (Maures)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
D. Vital Registration
Mauritius (VR)BamakoDakarSaint-Louis
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
E. Multiround survey
1970-1971 Multiround Survey1978-1979 Multiround SurveyDakarCentral valleyThienaha
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.
00.
10.
20.
30.
40.
5
F. Demographic Surveillance Sites
OuagadougouBandafassiFakao-PalmarinFakaoMlompNiakharN'gayokhèmePeul BandePaos-Koto
1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Mortality: 45q15 (Senegal)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
A. Derived from 5q0 and relational model
UNPD (CD-N)Timaeus/SahelCD-SouthCD-North
Loess reg.Spline
UNPD
Saint-Louis (SEN), VR
Bamako (MLI), VROuaga. (DSS)
Mauritius, VR
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
B. Household deaths
Fouta Toro (Toucouleurs & Peuls)1988 Census
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
C. Intercensal survival
1960-1971 surveys1972-1982 census estimates1978-1988 census1982-1992 census estimates1992-2002 census estimates
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
D. Maternal orphanhood
1986 DHS (at marriage)1986 DHS1986 DHS (=> marriage)1988 Census1992-1993 DHS2005 DHS
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
E. Siblings
1992-1993 DHS2005 DHSDHS-Siblings (pooled analysis)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
F. Vital Registration
Mauritius (VR)BamakoDakarSaint-Louis
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
G. Multiround survey
1970-1971 Multiround Survey1978-1979 Multiround SurveyDakar
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
H. Demographic Surveillance Sites
OuagadougouBandafassiFakaoMlomp
NiakharN'gayokhèmePeul BandePaos-Koto
1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Fertility: TFR (Senegal)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
23
45
67
8
Observed (weighted)
1957 Middle Senegal (D)1957 Middle Senegal (I)1957 Middle Senegal (D-A)1960-61 survey (D)1960-61 survey (D-A)1970-71 EDN (D)1978 WFS (D)1978 WFS (D-A)1986 DHS (D)1986 DHS (D-A)1988 census (D)1992-93 DHS (D)
1992-93 DHS (D-A)1997 DHS (D)1997 DHS (D-A)1999 ESIS (D)1999 ESIS (D-A)MICS-MD (D)2002 census (D)2002 census (D-A)2005 ESIS (D)2005 ESIS (D-A)2006 MIS (D)2008-2009 MIS (D)
WPP08 Loess regression
Cubic Spline
1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
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ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Fertility: ASFR (Bangladesh) 1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Fertility: ASFR (Bangladesh)
Lines are weighted cubic spline and loess regression trends
1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
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irs –
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ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Quality Assessment (based on WPP2006) 1
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Methodology: The UN approach to projecting total fertility
A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based on bi-logistic decline curves of fertility
2
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Model of fertility decline
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
12345678910
Children per woman
Fer
tility
dec
line
Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow
Model: Bi-logistic function to estimate the rate of fertility decline
2
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
1
2
3
4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Chi
ldre
n pe
r w
oman
Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow Floor
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
YearC
hild
ren
per
wom
anFast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow Floor
Projections: Fertility
A. From high to low fertility
B. From medium to 1.85
2
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Model of fertility decline
Model: Bi-logistic function to estimate the rate of fertility decline
1 2
1 21 2
( )(81) (81)
1 exp[ ( )] 1 exp[ ( )]m m
k kP t
Ln Lnt t t t
t t
Parameter Slow/Slow Fast/Slow Fast/Fast
k1 ............... -0.11 -0.16 -0.25
Δt1.............. 5.03 4.34 4.01
tm1 .............. 5.77 5.06 5.17
k2 ............... 0.15 0.22 0.31
Δt2.............. 2.75 3.02 4.32
tm2 .............. 3.21 3.52 3.94 In probabilistic fertility projection: Parameters values are replaced
by distributions. Some 100,000 trajectories of fertility decline are calculated by sampling from these parameter distributions.
2
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Fertility models and empirical data
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
012345678910
Average annual decline in TFR
Total Fertility
Average annual TFR decline
Fast/Fast
Fast/Slow
Slow/Slow
China
Iran
Mexico
Poland
2
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
BHM: A fertility transition model
Phase I: Not modeled.
Phase II: Fertility transition, modeled by Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM)
Phase III: Modeled with a first order autoregressive time series model [AR1], with its mean fixed at the approximate replacement-level fertility of 2.1
2
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2BHM: A fertility transition model
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2BHM: A fertility transition model
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2BHM: Bi-logistic functions and TF projections
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2Probabilistic Projection of Population
Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2Probabilistic Projection of Population
Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality
Total Population Population age 15-64
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2Probabilistic Projection of Population
Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality
Total Population Population age 15-64
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Methodology: The UN approach to projecting life expectancy
3
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birth
Illustration of the double-logistic function (based on a curve from Japan). The left plot illustrates the double-logistic function of 5-year gains in life expectancy. The right plot is a time-series of life expectancy, e(0), with gains modeled according to the double-logistic function
3
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birth 3
Illustration of the double-logistic function (based on a curve from Japan). The left plot illustrates the double-logistic function of 5-year gains in life expectancy. The right plot is a time-series of life expectancy, e(0), with gains modeled according to the double-logistic function
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birthUN Model: Five-year gains in life expectancy at birth (in years): Male
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5 67.5 72.5 77.5 82.5 87.5 92.5
e(0)
5-y
ea
r g
ain
s
Very fast (p90)
Fast pace (p75)
Medium Pace (m)
Slow pace (p25)
Very slow (p10)
3
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birthUN Model: Five-year gains in life expectancy at birth (in years): Female
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5 67.5 72.5 77.5 82.5 87.5 92.5
e(0)
5-y
ea
r g
ain
s
Very fast (p90)
Fast pace (p75)
Medium Pace (m)
Slow pace (p25)
Very slow (p10)
3
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Projections: Mortality models and empirical data
Male: average annual gain in e0 at a given e0
-0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
year
Average annual gain
Oman
Norway
Japan
Very fast (p90)
Fast pace (p75)
Medium Pace (m)
Slow pace (p25)
Very slow (p10)
3
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Probabilistic mortality projection
ctct
iidc
ctc
l
lg
ctctcyg
tcl
tcl
tCctcl
offunction smoothed ,0Normal~
,Normal Truncated~
Fcn Logistic Double param 6)|(
)|,
(,1,
6
,
.
.
period time countries; ,...,1;expectancylife,
Data:• Male life expectancy at birth from 1950 through 2005;• Estimates from UN World Population Prospects (WPP2006)
3
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Checking 5
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
DemoData: Empirical Database 5
Different Data Sources
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Dep
artm
ent o
f Eco
nom
ic a
nd S
ocia
l Affa
irs –
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
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