World Population Issues & Challenges for the 21 st century.

World Population Issues & Challenges for the 21st century

“Imagine all the people, sharing all the world”

John Lennon, “Imagine”

There are at least three more people in the world now than there were

when you began reading this sentence.

Just imagine.

When and where were you born? How many babies were born the

same year?

What is your probability of getting married or divorced?

Do you plan to have children? How many?

What kind of job will you have? How often will you change jobs? When will you retire ?

How many times will you move, locally - or overseas?

How long will you live? What is likely to kill you?

POPULATION ISSUES

1a. FERTILITY, b. MORTALITY c. MIGRATION2. SIZE AND GROWTH3. COMPOSITION4. DISTRIBUTION5. GROWTH ISSUES6. CONCERN ABOUT POPULATION7. SINGAPORE

Why study population?

“…one factor more critical for security & growth in the 21st century is demography, not democracy. Burgeoning populations are a drag on developing countries, while perversely low fertility rates are slowing growth in developed societies.

The poor are making themselves poorer by over-producing themselves, and the rich will have a less dynamic society because they are not replacing themselves.”

- MM Lee Kuan Yew, The geopolitics of babies, September 2005

Demography is defined as the study of human populations:

- the size, composition and distribution

- causes and consequences of changes in these characteristics

Populations are never static. They grow or decline through the interplay of 3 demographic processes:

Birth Death Migration This lecture presents an overview of

demographic processes; it traces pop trends and differences and examines broad social issues linked to pop change

1a.FERTILITY – 1st determinant of pop change

It refers to the no. of births that occur to an individual or in a population

In 2003,an average of 1.1 in Ukraine, 8.0 in Niger, 2.0 in US, 2.8 in the world

No. of babies born: 4m in US compared w 27m in India

1a. What factors affect fertility (number of births)? Culture

Economics

Health

1a. Variables that explain nearly all the differences in fertility level among populations: Age structure of pop Status of women % of women married - average age at

marriage - mother’s age at

birth of 1st child

Percent of women using contraception or contraception sterilization

Level of induced abortion

1a. Variables affecting fertility rates [contd]

Standard of living - health standard -successful full-

term pregnancies; public maternal &

child care services e.g. immunization - prevalence of diseases- e.g.STD

that impair fertility Education of girls, women working

outside the home Cultural ideas of family size

1a.

Fig 2 fr pg 9 - Age patterns of Fertility – Mali, US, Japan

“Fertility declines as the income and educational attainment of women increase.” Population Bulletin Dec 2005

US data of 2000, for women 35-44:

1.4 children for graduate or professional women;

1.9 for women w high sch diplomas;

2.5 for those without high school diplomas.

1a. Measuring fertility

TFR Concept of zero-replacement fertility – US:

2.1; Sierra Leone needs <3.0 CBR / Crude Birth Rate –

No. of babies born divided by mid-year pop, expressed as no.of babies per ‘000 pp.

2003: US14 per ‘000, 8 in Ukraine, 55 in Niger.

1b. MORTALITY- 2nd component of pop change See Fig 3 pg10

LIFE EXPECTANCY at birth – L.E. is better gauge of the life

chances of individuals in a pop - L.E. is affected by biological and

social factors. In 2001, US 77, Japan 81,

Botswana 37, Mozambique 34

1b. Mortality [contd] Life Expectancy reflects the real life

conditions in a pop Better personal hygiene and public

health practices

Diff btw more developed and less developed countries can be attributed to preventable diseases that strike children hard

If adequate health services were available throughout less developed world, mortality wd drop rapidly.

1b. HIV / Aids epidemic caused L.E. to

drop in several African c’tries, Modern life favours spread of

communicable diseases Natural disasters, widespread

violence In less-developed areas of world,

wars and natural disasters claim most lives bec of bad living conditions and emergency systems

1b. How do we explain differntials in L.E.

AGE - [15-24! Death by injuries, motor vehicle crashes]; M 3x that of F

Gender – women’s genetic, social, behavioural factors

Socioeconomic status - ethnicity, religion, genetic factors

Waves of migration – legal and illegal throughout history

Reasons – “push-pull” process [seeking political asylum, employment etc]

Devt of cosmopolitan or ‘Melting Pot’ or plural or multiethnic, multicultural societies

In 2003, involuntary refugees or asylees number about 20 m, acc to UNHCR

Consequences of Migration Diaspora - cultural enclaves, ‘Chinatown,

Little Saigon, Italian quarter Discrimination, language problems,

unemployment, loss of support network Pressure to conform, be assimilated,

insecurity about losing own identity & culture, clinging on to roots, religion

Gradual loss of cultural identity with ygr generation adapting; tension within families

Brain Drain or Foreign talent ?When educated and highly

skilled pp emigrate to a new country, the home country loses their potential social and economic contribution – after investing in their education and devt.

Big problem for less devd countries; devt is undermined e.g. Philippines

Possibility of reverse flow w economic and technological change – e.g return of Indian IT engineers & entrepreneurs fr Silicon Valley to Bangalore

2. Population size and growth

Whether a population grows or decreases, the changes can be traced to the net effects of fertility, mortality and migration:

Birth rate – Death rate + rate of net migration

Rate of growth can be used to calculate a pop’s hypothetical doubling time [if rate remains constant]

World pop growing at 1.3 % per yr; 2003 births exceed deaths by 81m

UN projected world pop in 2050 will be 8.9b

2. Pop size and growth [contd]

China is world’s most populous nation w 1.3b [2003], increasing by 0.6% per yr

India has 1.1b but growth rate of 1.7 so likely to be most populous cty in mid 21st C

Fastest growing countries in M.East and Africa. Yemen, 19.4m [2003], w 3.3% growth rate will double in 21 yrs; African continent growing at 2.5% so will double in 28 yrs.

In 2003, deaths exceed births in 17 European cts []; net immigration provides only pop growth

Western Europe needs 1.1m immigrants a yr above current level - to keep working age pop stable

3. Population Composition – age and shape of societies See pop pyramids of Mali, US & Italy 2000

Pop pyramids tell us ? What do data on Age, Sex and Race & Ethnicity composition tell us of past and present, future needs, problems?

What is the impact on social, political, economic, cultural aspects of country?

4.Population Distribution

In 2003, 81% of world pop lived in the less developed regions of the world

Projection for 2050: 86% living in less devd regions

Within less devd regions explosive urban growth – overwhelming public services, housing and no. of available jobs.

World Population Overview There have never been as many people on

earth as there are now (6.5 billion, 2005)

Go forth & multiply?

5.Growth issues – present & future [contd]

What are the causes of environmental problems and poverty? Will slowing down pop growth rate solve such problems?

Demographic transition – 4 stages


Demographic transitions: 1st stage - High DR, Short LE, High BR 2nd - Lowered DR, Still high BR 3rd - BR beginning to fall, close to DR,

growth rate gradually falling 4th- DR & BR close and low level; Q: which actions or policies* will initiate

declines in the BR


World growing at 1.2 % p.a.(977m) 9.3 - 12b by 2050?

India 21% China 12% Pakistan 5% Nigeria 4% Bangladesh 4% Indonesia 3%

No rate of growth can be sustained indefinitely

Zero pop gwth must be achieved once again

To stop growing, global TFR has to drop fr present 2.8 to 2-child average per woman.

Will it happen? No. WHY?

Global TFR will not drop immediately because:

1. Cultural practices do not change quickly

2. World’s current age structure [1/3 are below 15 yr]

Can the Earth support such huge pops? What is the impact on - ability of economies to flourish,

provide - physical environment - societal change, immigration - international relations - values & policies for care of the

elderly

Will new technologies be devised? Resource mgt techniques improved? Will world’s biological system -

fisheries, croplands, forests, grasslands & energy sources support more than 10b?

Pop Decline

Zero pop gwth has ts own problems –rapid drop - > social & economic problems

Natural decrease – long term decline a reality in Europe (Germany, Italy, Russia, Sweden)

How now?

What problems emanate fr changes in pop? - scarcity & waste of resources –

boom/bust Overcrowded cities, abandoned rural areas Social disturbances caused by changes in

racial composition Decline of quality of life w pop gwth

How serious is the problem?

Aristotle – cautioned that pops could outstrip their subsistence base, leading to poverty and social discord

18thC - Thomas Malthus, same view

19thC – Karl Marx & Friedrich Engels rejected Malthusian view

Population Control

Population control is any methodology used to control the type, location and number of people that inhabit the earth.

A national policy in some countries. Differing population patterns in developed

& developing world.

Population Control

Overpopulation in the developing world

Issue of economic development or family planning & education?

Population Control

Controlling the birth rate generally implies one of the following practices:

sexual abstinence contraception sterilization abortion infanticide

Population Control Views on family planning

Population Control: China

Coercive population control: China's one-child policy

Marriage & child-bearing permits

1971: wan, xi, shao campaign

1980: One-child-per couple policy

Population Control (China)

Policy incentives salary bonus (urban) bigger land allocation

(rural) extended maternity leave paid medical and hospital

expenses priority access to

housing, employment and schooling for the child


Policy Disincentives withdrawal of family

allowance and medical benefits

fines (even against everyone in the village or town)

demotion or discharge from a government job


Advantages: Fast fertility

reduction Rapid rise in the

standard of living


Critics say: One of the greatest

abuses of human rights in 20th century?

Authoritarian state: Public good versus private choice?

Selective abortions & discrimination


Current problems: Gender imbalance Social problems:

mercenary marriages, abduction, prostitution

Singapore Population & Control

Currently, lowest fertility rate in the S.E. Asian region Government’s interventionist, paternalistic approach 3 main phases: Anti-natalist phase, ‘eugenics’ period,

pro-natalist period

Anti-natalist phase 1966-1982

Urban housing shortage, large-scale unemployment & expanding population

Guinness Book of Records in 1966

Fear that burgeoning population will crowd out economic progress

Family planning programme to slow population expansion down

Anti-natalist phase 1966-1982 Singapore Family Planning & Population

Board (1966) began slew of campaigns appealing to individuals to take it slow.


‘Survival’ strategies to prevent population expansion:

Abortion was liberalized

Voluntary sterilization legalized

Incentives & disincentives

The Great Marriage Debate 1983-1986 By this period, dramatic drop in fertility rates New & worrying trend: growing number of

female graduates choosing to marry later. Fewer babies born to the higher educated,

lower-educated continued to produce large families.

Gradual lowering of the quality of the workforce?

The Great Marriage Debate 1983-1986 “The Great Marriage

Debate” Social Development Unit

(1984) Sterilization incentive of

$10,000 given to women with no ‘O’ levels

Eugenics, racial & discriminatory overtones made policy unpopular

Pro-natalist Policies & the Family (1987-1990s) Declining birth rate still a problem Rapidly ageing population “Have Three or More Children if You Can

Afford it” New approach: Affordability overriding

educational qualifications

Pro-natalist Policies & the Family (1987-1990s)

Primary goal: provide incentives to married couples to produce a third (or fourth) child

Pro-natalist Policies & the Family (1987-1990s)Slogans targeted at married

couples: “Children – Life Would be

Empty Without Them.” “Life’s fun when you’re a dad

& mum.” “The most precious gift you

can give your child is a brother or a sister.”

Pro-natalist Policies & the Family (1987-1990s)Slogans targeted at unmarried singles:

“Why Build Your Career Alone? Family Life Helps?”

“Make Room For Love in your Life.” “Life Would Be Lonely Without A Family.”


No-pay leave for childcare extended from one to 4 years for women in civil service.

Cash incentive of $10,000 for sterilization removed.

From the “economic burden” of having children to “immaterial joy” that children bring.

From having “children” to having a “family”.

2000 to Present

Baby Bonus Scheme (2001) Monetary incentives to couples -

Scheme enhanced in 2004. Third Child Paid maternity scheme Family Matters! Singapore committee

2000 to Present

Monetary incentives not enough Move to encourage family friendly

workplaces Romancing Singapore Campaign

launched in 2003 – softer approach, distancing itself from government motive

http://www.romancingsingapore.com/home/main.asp

Challenges Ahead

James, 31,Masters in Real Estate, asset manager

Q: Can attitudes be reshaped?

Sarah, 29, Ad executive

Own the 4Cs – Cash, Condo, Career, Car but hesitate on the 5th: Children

Challenges Ahead

Q: Can love be engineered?

Challenges AheadQ: Is Dr Love the answer to S’pore’s birth dearth?

Challenges Ahead

Singapore’s Lifestyle Impotency? “Singaporeans are so focused on

work that they have less sex than people in other countries and therefore fewer babies. We’re just too stressed out in life!”

- Victor Goh, obstetrician & fertility expert at NUH:

Q: Are we just too stressed?

GP Department Babies

The GP department has contributed a total

of 41 babies to the population of Singapore.

GP Department Babies

Mrs Koh’s 3 little princes

Ms De Souza’s little princess

Mrs Or’s darling

Mrs Kum’s & Mrs Wendy Goh’s lovely girls

Mr Adrian Tan – no longer a baby

Ms Lam’s two princes

Mrs Varella’s kids

World Population Issues & Challenges for the 21 st century.

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