Nuclear Energy Challenges in this Century

Daniel A. MeneleyUniversity of Ontario Institute of Technology

2000 Simcoe St. N., Oshawa, Ontario, Canada, L1H 7K4

Introduction• Nuclear energy is a mature technology– It is no longer a leading topic for research

• The world faces an urgent energy challenge– Population is increasing– Petroleum supplies are low and uncertain– There is little time to build for the future– IEA statement, 2009 annual report • “We must leave oil before it leaves us”

What are The Main Challenges?

• As defined in recent IAEA Report– “International Status and Prospects for Nuclear

Power”, Report by the Director General, September 2010

• As defined in recent MIT Summary Report– “The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle”, An

Interdisciplinary MIT Study, 2010

A list of this sort must be based on some kind of prediction of the future – a precarious task at best

Comparison of Challenge Lists

Comparison of Challenge Lists

Comparison of Challenge Lists

Comparison of Challenge Lists

Comparison of Challenge Lists

Comparison of Challenge ListsTable II. Challenges Identified in MIT Study

SHORT TERM (ZERO to 40 YEARS)Mitigation of climate change risk

Global Deployment at Terawatt Scale -- LWR Only

+Spent Fuel and Waste Management and

Disposal+Proliferation Risks and Nuclear Security

+Safety and ReliabilityResearch on Choice of Fuel, Reactor Type, and

Fuel CyclePreserve Options

LONG TERM (40 to 90 YEARS)+Reactor Design Innovation

+Fuel Cycle Innovations

+ Same as IAEA list

Selection of Challenges

Preconditions

Select & combine

Priority 2

Select & combine

Select

Select & combine

Select &Combine

Selected Challenges

SHORT TERM (ZERO to 50 YEARS)

1. Gain Public Acceptance2. Restore Realism in the Assessment of Radiation Risk3. Complete the Technical Task – Replace Petroleum in transportation4. Establish the Means for Financing Nuclear Energy Projects5. Answer Power Plant Site, Security, Energy Transport Questions6. Eliminate Nuclear Weapons Proliferation

 

LONG TERM (50 to 100 YEARS )7. Effective use of available resources (fuels and materials)

8. Grow Nuclear Capacity to More Than Ten Terawatts

9. Integrate Industrial Systems – Develop the “Hydricity” Network

1. Earn public acceptance – you can’t live without it– Acceptance relies on trust• Institutional trust is essential, but rare today• Trust is easy to lose and difficult to earn

– If institutions are trustworthy, the young will come• Resources will not be a problem

2. Do realistic risk analysis– Make “best estimate” predictions of risk• Decouple these estimates from licensing analysis

– Control costs, improve public acceptance

Preliminaries

3. Complete the Technical TaskReplace Petroleum

• IAEA – 2009 Annual Report– “One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or

tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day.

– “The earlier we start the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil. To change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously”.

Only Oil??

• Coal– Plentiful but poorly distributed and difficult to

manage in a sensitive natural environment• Limits to scale-up capability?

• Natural Gas– Plentiful in some areas, scarce in others• Shale gas is not the answer

Nuclear is “Small

Potatoes” Today

http://seekingalpha.com/article/230374-global-hydro-and-nuclear-power-in-perspective?source=email

(gregor.us)

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Energy Options on Planet EarthAvailableResource

Original Source? How Much?

OilNatural GasCoalGeothermal

Derived from stored solar energy plus the decay of radioactive materials in the earth. Half of available oil has already been used

0.4 yotta (1024) JoulesCoal is the largest source

HydroWindSolarTidalBiomass

Derived from direct solar (fusion) or from earth’s and moon’s kinetic energy.Diffuse and limited in either total capacity or achievable extraction rate.

3.8 yotta (1024) Joules per yearApproximately the same amount of energy is radiated to space per year

UraniumThorium

Derived from the explosion of a supernova, some 6.5 billion years ago.Inexhaustible total capacity and widespread availability. High potential extraction rate.

» 320 yotta (1024) JoulesUranium in seawater is the largest source

Resources Consumed per Gigawatt of Production Capacity

Type of power plant

No. of units,

land area

Fuel Requiredper year

Solid Waste tons/year

Gaseous Waste, incl.

GHGs

Avail-ability

(%)

Cost US$/MWh

Life-time(yrs)

Nuclear(LWR)

One or two units,

small area

20 tons uranium dioxide

1 ton fission products in

~15 tons HLW

No CO2 or other GHGs

during operation

~ 90 45 - 120

>60

CoalOne or two

units,small area

~ 4 million tons of

coal

~ 0.4 million tons of ash

~ 13 million tons of CO2 ~ 80 30- 90 ~ 30

Jan B. van Erp, Agustin Alonso, Daniel A. Meneley, Jozef Misak , George S. Stanford, to be published

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Is there enough nuclear fuel?Sources of Uranium and

Thorium

Resources(thousands of tonnes)

Exajoules (Thermal Reactors)

Exajoules (Fast

Reactors)

U Recoverable [IAEA, 2007] 5,500 2750 437,000

U EAR [OECD, 1998] 15,000 7500 1,200,000

U Used Fuel 2,000 - 160,000

U+Pu Surplus Military Small Small Small

U Phosphates [IAEA 2001] 9,100 4700 750,000

U Dissolved in Seawater 4,400,000 N/A 317,800,000

Th Recoverable [OECD/ NEA 2007] 2,573 (low?) 1300 212,000

NOTE: World Primary Energy Use in 2005: 457 Exajoules

Transportation Fuels

• C.W. Forsberg (ORNL and MIT):– “Liquid fuel demands for transport could be reduced

in half by combinations of several options such as diesel engines and plug-in hybrids.

– “Independently, the biomass liquid fuel options could meet existing liquid fuel demands . . . .

– “The specific combination of biomass, nuclear energy, and liquid fuels for transportation will be determined by the results of ongoing development work.”

Alternative Strategies• “Urgent” is the most important word today– We have no time to search for the “best” solution– We have a good technology – water reactors – in hand– We have another option – SFR – at the demonstration stage

• Good for waste management – and for energy in the long term

• Edward Kee, NERA Consultants:– “The most important issue for reactor designs is to get a lot

of units built and in operation as fast as possible. . . . . While design features are important, market success is much more important.”

Alternative Strategies

• Do NOT fall into the “research forever” trap– It is tempting to spend effort on “perfect” solutions

that take a long time to develop

Alternative Strategies

• Do NOT fall into the “research forever” trap– It is tempting to spend effort on “perfect” solutions

that take a long time to develop

• Of course, do research for the 22nd century– Work on all energy options that might be beneficial– But do NOT let this research work conflict with

meeting today’s challenge

Are There Enough Reactor Sites?

• Given the need for a few terawatts of capacity:– Establish mega-sites analogous to major oil fields

• Improved technical support and security environment• Arrange for a “hub and spoke” system with small sites

– Build recycling facilities at major sites• Reduce transportation needs

– Recycle most actinides• Shorten isolation period and waste repository volumes

– On-site waste disposal?• Recover high value inert fission products (not waste)• Deep-drilled final repository?

Oxide FabricationPlant

UraniumThorium

FreshFuel

CANDUCANDUCANDUCANDUCANDUCANDU

CANDUCANDU

Enriched U

Used PWR Fuel DUPIC ProcessingPlant

Waste

ReprocessingPlant

FBRFBRREPROC. +FAB. PLANT

THIS ENERGY SUPPLY IS SUSTAINABLE FOR THOUSANDS

OF YEARS

U, Pu, fission products

Old UsedFuelUsed Fuel

Used Fuel Storage

Waste

Disposal

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Example – A Nuclear Mega-Site

Pu

U

4. Financing the Nuclear Buildup

• Consider a new oil field discovery– Large capital requirements for development

• Tax relief is a common support mechanism• Low lease fees• Direct subsidy

• Concept of the “Public Good” – Paul Collier– “Natural resources have no natural owner”

• Ownership normally is assigned to government

• Nuclear is a public good – an investment in the future– Loan guarantees by governments are fully justified– This will reduce a “common bad” – the import of petroleum

5. Site, Security, Energy Transport

• A few large sites are preferred for many reasons– Remote location or an island may be preferred• Security is much easier and more affordable

– Energy transport similar to that of a large oil field• Energy currencies will be electricity and hydrogen• Co-location – e.g. synthetic transportation fuel production

– Pipelines and power lines, water transport

– Minimal fuel shipment, especially of used fuel• Bring recycle facilities to the reactor site

6. Nuclear Weapons Proliferation

• This is primarily a task for diplomats and governments – not technical folks– Effective international agreements are essential– The nonproliferation regime already exists• No aggressive use of these weapons in past 65 years• A matter for specialists – civil and military

– Engineers can assist with – but not solve -- this issue• There is no “proliferation proof” nuclear plant design

7, 8, 9. The Long Term• Long term fuel supply will not be a problem

– True, if this issue is properly addressed in the short term• Otherwise, long term prediction is too uncertain for definite

statements on challenges– The task today is to get through the next 50 years– Our descendants probably will produce better ideas

• In case they do not, nuclear fission energy can do the job even without future technical discoveries

• Hydrogen & electricity are expected to be main currencies

• The matter of steadily increasing human numbers must be dealt with soon – by someone.

Summary

• Build nuclear capacity rapidly – Gen II and/or III• Classify nuclear capacity as an investment, not as

a cost• Do not fall into the “research forever” trap• Convert sufficient fertile material to fissile

material, to supply long term recycled fuel• Fission most of the higher actinides

Questions?