World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

Development of Capacities for Managing Risk Development of Capacities for Managing Risk Associated with Weather-related Hazards in Associated with Weather-related Hazards in

Middle-East & North AfricaMiddle-East & North Africa

(based on WMO DPM Country-level Survey 2006)(based on WMO DPM Country-level Survey 2006)

Jaser RabadiJaser RabadiWMO Regional Office for West Asia, BahrainWMO Regional Office for West Asia, Bahrain

Weather-related hazards ….

We cannot avoid them ….but we can prevent them from becoming disasters

$ 1 invested in disaster preparedness can save $ 5 - 10 of disaster-related losses

Source: World Resources InstituteSource: World Resources Institute

1. Facts…MENA Hazards

Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

Distribution of Natural Disasters in MENA Region (1980-2005)Number of events

More than 80 % of natural disasters were caused by Weather-related hazards.

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

Slides 2.2%

Flood 40%

Extreme Temperature

1.5%

Drought12%

Earthquake17%

Windstorm 7%

Wild Fires 0.7%

Epidemic, famine, insects19%

Tsunami0.2%

Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Casualties

Nearly 70 % of casualties were caused by Weather-related hazards.

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

Tsunami0.11%

Epidemic, famine, insects

6%

Wild Fires 0.027%

Windstorm 0.22%

Earthquake32%

Drought58%

Extreme Temperature0.04%

Flood 4%

Slides 0.12%

(90% Iran)

(99% Sudan)

Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Economic losses

45 % of economic losses were caused by Weather-related hazards.

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

Tsunami0.00%

Epidemic, famine, insects

0.2%

Wild Fires 0.00%

Windstorm 0.4%

Earthquake56%

Drought25%

Extreme Temperature

1.0%

Flood 18%

Slides 0.00%

(45% Iran 43% Algeria)

2. Increasing Risks Associated With Climate Change

Conclusions from 4th IPCC Assessment ReportWG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Phenomenon Likelihood Major projected impacts

Increased frequency of heat waves

Very likely Increased risk of heat-related mortality, health, impacts on ag., …

Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events

Very likely Increased loss of life and property due to flooding.

Area affected by drought increases

Likely Increased risk of food and water shortage

Intense tropical cyclone activity increases

Likely Increased risk of deaths, injuries, Potential for population migrations, loss of property, ….

Increased incidence of extreme sea level rise

Likely Disruption of coastal echo systems, fisheries, infrastructure, water resources, migration of populations..

WMO and National Meteorological and

Hydrological Services’ Capacities, Gaps and Needs in Support of Disaster Risk

Reduction in MENA

Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction

Global Survey of Scientific Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in and Technical Capacities in

Support of Disaster Risk Support of Disaster Risk ReductionReduction

187 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were Surveyed to Identify:

1. The hydrometeorological hazards affecting their countries

2. Their involvement and role in national organizational and governance structures for disaster risk reduction

3. Their capacities to deliver products and services to support disaster risk reduction

4. Major gaps and needs related to their capacities

Countries Participating in the Country-Level DRR Survey

139 out of 187 Members (74 %) responded

24/5254 %

25/3474 %

10/1283 %

18/2282 %

14/1974 %

44/4892 %

Developing countries:

85/13754 %

Least developed countries:

25/5050 %

Countries From the MENA Region Included in the Statistical Analysis

• Algeria• Bahrain• Djibouti• Egypt• Iran, Islamic Republic of• Iraq• Jordan• Kuwait• Lebanon• Libyan Arab Jamahiriya• Mauritania

• Morocco• Occupied Palestinian

Territory• Oman• Qatar• Republic of Yemen• Saudi Arabia• Somalia• Sudan• Syrian Arab Republic• Tunisia• United Arab Emirates

Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

Capacities of National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction

Capacities vary highly country-by-country

Observations/Monitoring

Telecommunication Infrastructures

Data Exchange

Forecasting & Warning Capacities

Coordination with Other Agencies

Dissemination Systems and Target Audiences

Public Outreach

low

high

medium

Algeria

low

high

medium

Bahrain

low

high

medium

Egypt

low

high

medium

Iran, Islamic Republic oflow

high

medium

Jordan

low

high

medium

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya

Moroccolow

high

medium

low

high

medium

Omanlow

high

medium

Qatar

low

high

medium

Republic of Yemen

low

high

medium

Saudi Arabia

low

high

medium

Sudan

Tunisialow

high

medium

United Arab Emirateslow

high

medium

low

high

medium

low

high

medium

Globally Averaged Results

Number of responding countries who identified themselves as being affected by specific hazards

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Strong

win

ds

Thunde

rsto

rm o

r lig

htning

Flash

flood

Sands

torm

Heat w

ave

Dense

fog

Droug

ht

Deser

t loc

ust sw

arm

Earth

quake

s

Aviatio

n haz

ards

Smok

e, Dus

t or H

aze

Hailsto

rm

Mar

ine h

azard

s

Forest

or w

ild la

nd fi

re

Wate

rborn

e haz

ards

River f

lood

ing

Cold w

ave

Heavy

sno

w

Tsuna

mi

Coast

al flo

odin

g

Avalan

che

Volca

nic ev

ents

Storm

sur

ge

Airbor

ne h

azar

dous

subs

tanc

es

Land

slide

or muds

lide

Tropic

al cy

clone

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ou

ntr

ies

Aff

ecte

d b

y H

azar

d

Top 10 hydrometeorologocial hazards include strong winds, thunderstorm or lightning, flash floods, sand storms, heat wave, dense fog and drought

Archival of Hazard Data vs. Socio-Economic Impact Data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Thunde

rsto

rm o

r lig

htning

Heat w

ave

Strong

win

ds

Smok

e, Dus

t or H

aze

Sands

torm

Cold w

ave

Dense

fog

Droug

ht

Hailsto

rm

Heavy

sno

w

Aviatio

n haz

ards

Flash

flood

Coast

al flo

odin

g

Mar

ine h

azard

s

Deser

t loc

ust sw

arm

Earth

quake

s

River f

lood

ing

Wate

rborn

e haz

ards

Forest

or w

ild la

nd fi

re

Tornad

o

Airbor

ne h

azar

dous

subs

tanc

es

Freez

ing

rain

Tsuna

mi

Land

slide

or muds

lide

Avalan

che

Storm

sur

ge

Tropic

al cy

clone

Volca

nic ev

ents

Hazard Information Socio-Economic Impacts

The socio-economic impacts of hazards are archived by only a few countries

Warnings which are Nationally Mandated through National Meteorological service, National Hydrological Service,

combined service or other agencies

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Aviatio

n haz

ards

Strong

win

ds

Heat w

ave

Sands

torm

Thunde

rsto

rm o

r lig

htning

Dense

fog

Hailsto

rm

Cold w

ave

Flash

flood

Smok

e, Dus

t or H

aze

Heavy

sno

w

Deser

t loc

ust sw

arm

Coast

al flo

odin

g

Droug

ht

River f

lood

ing

Mar

ine h

azard

s

Wate

rborn

e haz

ards

Earth

quake

s

Forest

or w

ild la

nd fi

re

Freez

ing

rain

Tropic

al cy

clone

Tsuna

mi

Airbor

ne h

azar

dous

subs

tanc

es

Avalan

che

Land

slide

or muds

lide

Storm

sur

ge

Issued By Other

Issued By CombinedService

Issued By NHS

Issued By NMS

The majority countries are mandated to provide warnings for the top ten hazards

Support provided by NMHSs (through expertise, products and services) to agencies responsible for

disaster risk reduction

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Emergencyresponse

Emergency planningand preparedness

Disaster prevention Reconstructionphase

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide early warning information to:

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14M

inis

try

that

ove

rsee

sN

MH

S

Oth

erM

inis

trie

s

New

s m

edia

Gen

eral

pu

bli

c

Em

erg

ency

resp

on

sese

rvic

es

Hea

d o

fC

om

mit

tee

for

DR

R

WM

OR

egio

nal

Cen

tre

Hea

d o

f th

eG

ove

rnm

ent

Bu

sin

esse

s

IFR

C

UN

DP

The majority of NMHSs provide early warning information to government ministries, news media, general public and emergency response services

Meaning ????

Capacities or Services, in support of disaster risk management:

• Vary highly from country to country;

• Capacity development would be needed at different levels.

How Can WMO andNational Meteorological and

Hydrological Services Help in Disaster Risk Reduction?

Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015

Risk TransferRisk Identification and Assessment

Risk Reduction(Prevention & Mitigation)

Governance and Organizational Coordination and

Cooperation

Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk quantification

Sectoral planning

Early warning systems

Emergency preparedness & planning

Catastrophe insurance/bond markets

Alternative risk transfer

Education, Training and Information and Knowledge Sharing

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment

• Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling ….

• Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata

• Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies

• Future hazard trend analysis– Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts

– Probabilistic climate models –

Risk Assessment/Partnership UNDP and World BankFlood, Drought, Tropical Cyclone and Severe Storms

DROUGHT

FLOOD

1. Standardized hazard data and metadata

2. Standardized hazard analysis and mapping methodologies

3. Mainstreaming risk assessment in sectoral planning (partners)

4. Capacity development and training

5. Demonstration projects in selected countries

SEVERE STORMS /TROPICAL CYCLONES

Initiation of WMO “Hazard Programme” in 2008.

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction

1. Information providers for sectoral planning (agriculture, water resources, transport, tourism, health, etc.)

2. Early warning systems– Probabilistic forecasting and warnings

– Integration of risk information into warning messages

– Communication and dissemination

– Supporting emergency preparedness and response

3. Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations

Shift from emergency response to risk reduction through prevention and preparedness…

Marine

Health (etc.)…

Geological

Communitiesat risk

warning

National to local governments

Hydrological

Meteorological

NATIONAL SERVICES

post-disaster

response

In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster reduction management and focus remains on post-disaster response

Why are early warning systems not working?

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health (etc.)

COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES

Feedback

Feedback

Community Preparedness

warning

National to local governments

supported by DRR plans, legislation

and coordination mechanisms

warning

Feedback

Effective Early Warning Systems

warning

preventiveactions

Effective Early Warning Systems (different view)National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

are critical to ensure emergency planning and response involving 4 technical components

WMO National and Regional Projects for Implementation and Strengthening of Multi-Hazard EWS

EWS Demonstration projectsEurope– France– 8 South-Eastern Europe countries (with World Bank and ISDR)– European river basin (transboundary)Asia– China (Shanghai)– IndiaNorth America, Central America and the Caribbean– United States/Canada transboundary– Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador in Central America (with World Bank

and IFRC)Technical Capacity Development for Specific Hazards– Severe weather (Southern Africa and Pacific)– Flash flood guidance system (Central America and Southern Africa)– Sand and dust storm (Middle-East and Northern Africa)– Drought (South-East Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa)

Opportunities to initiate coordinated multi-hazard early warning systems project in MENA countries

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

Risk TransferRisk Identification and Assessment

Risk Reduction(Prevention & Mitigation)

Governance and Organizational Coordination and

Cooperation

Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk quantification

Sectoral planning

Early warning systems

Emergency preparedness & planning

Education and training

Catastrophe insurance/bond markets

Alternative risk transfer

Information and Knowledge Sharing

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

• Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

• Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis

• Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement

• Forecasts for management of risk portfolio

• Technical support and service delivery

WMO Initiative in Support of Financial Risk Transfer Markets

Partners: World Bank, World Food Programme, Reinsurance, WRMA

• Guidelines for standardized data and forecast products• Work with partners on country-specific cases;• Development of standard indices (technical commissions);

• Motivating coordinated climate research on understanding of patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations);

• Modernization of observing networks, data rescue programmes and capacity development of NMHS;

• Raise political awareness on benefits of NMHSs products and services (with private and public partners).

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

How can the WMO How can the WMO support projects in support projects in

MENA?MENA?

WMO Strategic Goals in DRR - Key Words

1. Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment

2. Strengthening and sustainability of multi-hazard early warning systems

3. Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements

4. Strengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships with disaster risk reduction organizations

5. Public outreach campaigns

Implemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners’ resources/expertise.

Global Coordination of National Observing Networks & Global Telecommunication System

Global Telecommunication System

Global Observing System

Coordinated Satellite Activities

Global Data Exchange:WMO Resolutions 40 and 25Global Data Processing and Forecasting

Leveraging WMO Regional Forecasting Centers to Assist Members

WMO’s Global Data Processing and Forecasting Centres

Sharing Resources and Providing Technical Support for Analysis and Forecasting (short to long term)

MENACountries

Regional Training Centres

Promoting use of relevant new and emerging technologies and techniques for effective provision of meteorological and hydrological services in support of sustainable development

MENACountries

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every country

Hazard analysis, advisory and warning services

for a wide range of hazardsFeedbacks, needs,

requirements

Examples of Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and

Hydrological Services in MENA Region

– Agriculture: Desert Locust, with FAO

Other Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region

Transport

Water ResourceManagement

Industry & infrastructure

HealthMarine Safety

Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region

– Across all sectors: Climate Outlooks and El Nino / La Nina updates

Local Climate information for local Sectoral decision-making

Improved Information to assess future climate scenariosWMO/World Bank Project: Africa

Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda

Downscaling

Modernization of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region:

Enhancing Potential Contributions to DRR

– Bahrain*– Islamic Republic of Iran– Libyan Arab Jamahiriya*– Oman– Saudi Arabia– United Arab Emirates*

* With support from UNDP

WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region

– At the international level, WMO is

• Partner of World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, WHO, FAO, OCHA, UNOSAT, and

• Member of GFDRR, ISDR System Management Oversight Board. WMO and NMHSs assume a lead role in implementation of Hyogo Framework for Action, particularly related to the second Priority for Action, “Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.”

– At regional and national levels, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Specialised Centres (Casablanca, Algiers, Tunis, Cairo, Jeddah) should be considered as partners for disaster risk reduction

WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region

– Provision of hazard information data, forecast and mapping to support:

• Risk assessment• Sectoral Planning (infrastructure, food security) • Financial risk transfer markets

– Capacity development in multi-hazard early warning systems

– Operational cooperation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and National Disaster Management Organizations and RCRC

– Providing expertise in assessments and capacity development projects and implementation planning

Coordinated projects among partners to assist countries in a more comprehensive manner

For more information please contact:Dr Jaser RabadiWMO Representative for West AsiaUN House, PO Box 26814, Manama, Bahrain

Tel. : 00 973 173 19 401 Fax. : 00 973 173 11 607Cell : 00 973 390 64 305Email: JRabadi@wmo.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

Thank You