World GDP - WordPress.com
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The end of growth? Nicolas Meilhan Member of les Econoclastes and of ASPO France World GDP - 0 to 2014 - 0 500 1000 1500 2000
Transcript of World GDP - WordPress.com
The end of growth?
Nicolas Meilhan Member of les Econoclastes and of ASPO France
World GDP - 0 to 2014 -
0 500 1000 1500 2000
“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist”
Kenneth Boulding
3
World GDP - Trillions of 2014 US$, 0 to 2014-
0
20
40
60
80
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Source: Angus Maddison
2004
1994
1972
1870
2014
Oil is by far the main source of energy (and economic growth)
Sources: Shilling et al., 1977, et BP Statistical Review, 2013
Evolution of world primary energy consumption - Million tons of oil equivalent , 1860 to 2012 -
4
30%
27%
22%
8% 6% 4% 2%
80% Biomass
Nuclear
Natural gas
Coal Oil
Hydro
Wind, solar & geothermal
Four of the last five global recessions were preceded by an oil shock
Economic Recession vs. Oil Price
Source: Steven Kopits, June 2009, Douglas Westwood, Oil: What price can America afford?, EIA, NBER
5
Comparison of the world GDP growth with the world Primary Energy consumption growth
- 50 countries, 1970 to 2011-
6
Can we still grow our economy without energy? W
orl
d G
DP
Gro
wth
World Primary Energy Consumption Growth
Source: How Dependent is Growth from Primary Energy ? Output Energy Elasticity in 50 Countries (1970-2011), Gaël Giraud et Zeynep Kahraman, 2014
How much oil (and growth) is left to fuel our economy?
Source : Patrick Brocorens, ASPO Belgique
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All liquid fuels extraction - 1900 to 2100 -
Extr
act
ion
in b
illio
ns
of
oil
ba
rrel
s p
er y
ear
We still have a lot of oil left in the ground, but it is getting more and more expensive to extract it …
8
Bre
ake
ven
pri
ce (
US$
/bb
l)
Source: Rystad Energy, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Global Investors
Cumulative peak production (millions barrels per day)
Breakeven prices for non-producing oil fields
…while our willingness to pay for it is likely to decline, which will engender an oil extraction and consumption peak
9
Oil
pri
ce in
$2
01
4 p
er b
arr
el
Oil price vs. Crude oil extraction - 1961 à 2014 -
Source : Jean Laherrere, ASPO France, EIA
Oil extraction in millions barrels per day
Peak “all oil” is already a reality since January 2011, excluding North-America non-conventional oil production…
Crude oil extraction - January 2010 to April 2015 -
Source : EIA
Extr
act
ion
in m
illio
ns
of
b
arr
els
of
oil
per
da
y
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85World - North America North Amercia
2015
… which might peak as soon as 2015
11
US crude oil extraction - Millions barrels per day, January 2010 to September 2015 -
Extr
act
ion
in m
illio
ns
of
b
arr
els
of
oil
per
da
y
Source : EIA
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Tho
usa
nd
s
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Jan
15
Feb
15
Mar
15
Ap
r 1
5
May
15
Jun
15
Jul 1
5
Au
g 1
5
Sep
15
Oct
15
And peak « all oil » most likely means the growth party is over…
12 Source : Graham M. Turner 2012 – « On the Cust of Global Collapse? Updated Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Historical Data » GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, Volume 21, Number 2, June 2012, pp.116-124
Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant
Energy & Transportation Practices
(+33) 1 42 81 23 24
nicolas [email protected]
