World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 Leaflet + Contents

8
World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 energy business insight e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 21 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Dehydration & Mercury Removal Sulphur Acid Gas Removal Acid Gas Treatment Condensate Liquefaction Plant Process Flow Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction Liquefaction involves gas treatment, liquefaction processes and storage of LNG. Prior to liquefaction, feed gas is put through a removal process of contami- nant and unwanted substances. Liquefaction compresses gas into 1/600th of its volume. The resulting LNG is stored in tanks before being offloaded to carriers. Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow Source: Chiyoda Corporation Natural Gas LNG Condensate Stabilisation Reception LPG Removal Liquefaction LPG A liquefaction process flow broadly involves gas treatment, liquefaction and the storage of LNG. The gas treatment process includes acid gas removal (also known as gas sweetening), dehydration and heavy oil separation. Gas treatment Prior to the liquefaction of gas, feed gas is put through a removal process of con- taminants and unwanted substances. This protects the processing equipment and achieves the specifications required by the LNG market. Acid gas removal (gas sweetening)is carried out to remove environmental pol- lutants from the natural gas feed. An amine absorber is commonly used to absorb these acidic gases such as hydrogen sulphide and carbon dioxide. Sulphur is further extracted from the hydrogen sulphide through the use of a sulphur removal unit. Dehydrationof the gas is further carried out using an absorbent. Water is removed from the treated gas to avoid the formation of ice in the ensuing liquefaction process. Heavy oil separation involves the removal of heavier hydrocarbon components that might cause plugging in process equipment in the course of liquefaction. Efforts have recently been made on the recovery of these hydrocarbons. Liquefaction of treated gas Major liquefaction processes include the C3-MR (Propane Mixed Refrigerant Process), AP-X, Cascade, Dual-Mixed Refrigerant Technology (‘DMR’) and the SMR methods. These methods require huge energy input to drive the refrigeration com- pressors. Liquefaction of the treated gas is further discussed in the following pages. Storage of treated gas Once the gas is treated and liquefied, it is stored in containment systems and of- floaded to LNG carriers for transportation to onshore or offshore re-gas facilities. Prospects Technologies Markets © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 23 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Offloading to Regasification Vessels Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction Side-by-side offloading can be achieved by either loading arms or cryogenic hoses which are positioned on the side of the ship. This offloading has been used for crude and LPG for over 30 years and has been proven between two LNG carriers. A moored side by side operation is an important option for offloading LNG FPSOs. The most critical issues during the process are the loads in the moor- ing lines between the two vessels and in the floating fenders. These are determined by wave and wind conditions as well as the loads on the two vessels. Even in head waves the two vessels are likely to be out of phase (jack knifing) which causes tension on the mooring cables. Therefore side by side mooring can only really be used in benign environments. Loading arms are alternatives to the direct hose hookups for use on larger vessels. They are able to execute transfers at higher loading rates and pres- sure. Many FLNG concepts include loading arms which are positioned on the side of the ship or at the bow. They can handle both liquids and gases in a range of temperatures. The system has to be drained before breaking off connection. Many companies such as FMC, Aker Solutions and SBM offer loading arms for side by side, tandem or ship to shore offloading. Shell’s Prelude FLNG project will deploy the use of FMC Technologies’ offshore loading arm systems. Marine Loading Arms are made of several compo- nents including the base riser, inboard arm and the outboard arm. Tandem offloading can involve aerial cryogenic hoses, floating cryogenic hoses or loading arms. An aerial arrangement involves the cryogenic hose being at- tached to the bow manifold of the LNG carrier. A typical floating arrangement is where the cryogenic hose is attached to the mid ship manifold of the LNG carrier, and floated in the sea between the two vessels. In environments where side by side is not possible, tandem offloading becomes the most important form of offloading. Due to the relatively short distance between the bow and stern of the two vessels and wave and wind conditions, this is a highly complex operation. In some conditions, differences in drafts can lead to differences in the headings of the vessel, which adds another dimension of complexity to the operation. Cryogenic hoses are flexible thermally isolated hoses that have the ability to transfer both LNG at -162°C and gas between FLNG vessels and LNG carriers. Hoses can be used in environments where it may be difficult to use loading arms, such as hostile sea conditions where close contact between vessels is too dangerous. The first transfer of LNG between two vessels using cryogenic hoses took place at the Teesside GasPort (UK) in 2007. LNG transfer has to be performed under most weather conditions at the offshore location. In open sea, this is a challenging operation and becomes even more difficult in harsh environments. Specialised equipment which provides safe and efficient offloading is very important to operators. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 54 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Australasia Chapter 7 : Market Forecast All of Australia’s FLNG expendi- ture will be on its export facilities. Expenditure will total $ bn over 2015-2021. Australasia will see the installation of Prelude FLNG by 2017. Average Capex per annum between 2015 and 2021: $ bn Liquefaction. Australasia represents % of global forecast expenditure and % of global liquefaction Capex. Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Expenditure ($ billion) Import Liquefaction Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Service 2014-2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Expenditure ($ billion) Papua New Guinea Australia Australasia is a key region for FLNG liquefac- tion developers as it benefits from unconven- tional gas reserves, such as coal bed methane. All floating LNG expenditure will be in export development. Liquefaction Australasia will represent % of global floating LNG export Capex and % of all global FLNG Capex between 2015-2021, an investment of $ bn. Most of these developments will come from Australia; the rest from activity in Papua New Guinea. The topography of PNG reduces the economic viability of building onshore and has encour- aged development of projects such as Talis- man’s Pandora FLNGand Liquid Niugini Gas’ Gulf FLNGprojects. The region is anticipating the arrival of Shell’s Prelude FLNGdevelopment, due onstream in 2017. The facility will have a capacity of mmtpa and is currently being built at Geoje Shipyard by the Technip-Samsung consortium. The success of this landmark project could lead to significant increases in global Capex as financiers and operators gain confidence in the technology. Specifically, Woodside has mentioned making its FID on the Browse FLNGproject post the success- ful delivery of Prelude. ExxonMobil and BHP Billiton have agreed to develop the Scarboroughgas field, km offshore Western Australia, using a FLNG vessel that will have processing capacity of approximately mmtpa. Other key FLNG projects in Australia include Browse FLNG and Echuca Shoals FLNG. Total Total Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021 Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Country of Service 2014-2021 © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 56 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Latin America Chapter 7 : Market Forecast Expenditure for both import ( %) and liquefaction ( %) infrastructure to total $ bn over 2015-2021. There are many import projects expected. Latin America will also receive the world’s first floating LNG liquefaction, regasification and storage unit (FLSRU). Average Capex per annum between 2015 and 2021: $ m Liquefaction; $ m Import. Latin America totals % of global fore- cast expenditure – % of liquefaction and % of import Capex. Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Expenditure ($ billion) Import Liquefaction Latin America will see an investment of $ bn over 2015-2021, % of global spend on floating LNG projects. % of the region’s spend is on liquefaction facilities while % is on import infrastructure. Import The region is home to five operational floating units, all of which are located in Argentina and Brazil. Golar LNG supplied the FSRUs at Pecém Terminal (Golar Spirit FSRU) and Guanabara Bay phase 1 (Golar Winter FSRU); Excelerate is responsible for Guanabara Bay (Experience FSRU), Bahía Blanca GasPort, and the Puerto Escobar LNG projects. Combined, these projects provide Argentina and Brazil with mmtpa of floating import capacity. Ex- perience FSRU, the world’s largest FSRU, has all output capacity of 1bcf/d and replaced Golar Winter. Golar Winter is now deployed to Brazil’s terminal in Bahía de Todos os Santos, Salvador. Over the forecast period, $ bn in Capex is expected on floating import and regasification facilities. Projects currently under construction include Chile’s Mejillones FSRU (Golar NB 13 FSRU), Argentina’s GNL Puerto Cuatreros, Uruguay’s GNL Del Plata FSRU and Puerto Rico’s Aguirre GasPort. Other key projects include Jamaica’s Port Esquivel FSRU, Chile’s Quintero Bay FSRUand Dominican Republic’s Marcoris FSRU. Liquefaction Floating liquefaction facilities are expected to total $ bn for the period 2015-2021, on the vessel Colombia FLSRU, the world’s first floating LNG liquefaction, regasifica- tion and storage unit. Expected onstream in the earlier part of the forecast, it will be situated in the Colombian Caribbean coast and will have storage capacity of m of LNG. The FLRSU has regasification facilities but its primary function is to liquefy and export LNG produced from nearby onshore fields. Previously, Petrobras’ ultra-deepwater pre-salt fields would have seen one of the region’s first FLNG liquefaction vessels come onstream. However, plans for this unit have been put on hold in favour of pipelines. Falling gas prices in the region exacerbated by the United States’ expected exports of shale gas outputs will threaten Petrobras’ plans for a floating liquefaction unit. Petrobras has already shelved its plans for an FLNG vessel in the Santos Basin. Total Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021 Import Liquefaction © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 13 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Floating Liquefaction – Onshore Cost Comparison Chapter 2 : Why Floating LNG? Floating liquefaction removes high cost variables such as pipelines, lowering overall Capex. Onshore terminals have seen EPC costs exceed $1,500 per tpa. LNG FPSOs could offer an estimated Capex of $800 per tpa. 0 500 1,000 1,500 Onshore Offshore Well Installations LNG FPSO Production Platform Gas Compression system Pipeline Onshore LNG Plant Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Onshore Offshore Floating Linear (Onshore) Onshore terminal costs The cost of onshore LNG terminals has been consistently increasing over the past 15 years with no indication of decline; some onshore LNG facilities have seen EPC costs as high as $1,500 per tonne per annum. Other costs, apart from the Capex associ- ated with the terminal construction and design, are accumulated during the develop- ment of an onshore LNG project. Assuming the field is located offshore, other infrastructure is also required in order to extract the gas, including production platforms, subsea wells and subsea pipelines from the production platform to the on- shore terminal. Floating terminal costs A floating offshore LNG terminal eliminates the need for costly production platforms and export pipelines, lowering overall Capex for the project. The figure shows that the pipeline to shore can be more than 10% of project costs (or $200 per mmtpa) in some cases. Furthermore, LNG FPSOs can be con- structed in the controlled environment of a shipyard unlike onshore terminals, which are typically constructed in-situ ‘stick-build’ or transported to site in modular form. FLNG developers are aiming for costs be- tween $700 and $900 per tonne of annual liquefaction capacity depending on the feed gas specifications and other project specific costs. “FLNG is a reasonably cheaper solu- tion, but project financing does not allow this at the moment as lending money for the project is risky with- out any FLNG vessels in operation. Currently, all FLNG vessels are being built using the Operators’ money.” Major FLNG EPC contractor Figure 7: LNG Capital Costs Total 11.1 7.7 8.5 © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 34 World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Shipyard Review Chapter 5 : FLNG Supply Chain The key shipyards involved in LNG projects are located in South Korea, Japan and Singapore. South Korean yards lead in the areas of newbuild floating regasification and newbuild floating liquefaction vessel construction. To date, only DSME and Samsung Heavy Industries have sanctioned projects for LNG FPSOs, positioning them as market leaders in floating liquefaction. Hyundai Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are poised to begin construction on floating liquefaction vessels. Dubai Drydocks have involved themselves in the construction of the pioneer LNG FPSOs through the construction of Prelude FLNG’s turret. We can expect shipyards with construction expertise in floating regasification vessels, FPSOs, and LNG carriers, to have the necessary qualifications and facilities to construct FLNG vessels. Projects indicated refer to those already sanctioned or expressed interest with capability to execute. Legend Italcantieri Yard Dubai Drydocks Keppel Shipyard Izar Sestao Yard Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Kvaerner Masa-Yards IHI Corporation Imabari Shipbuilding Kawasaki Heavy Industries Mitsubishi Heavy Industries MHI Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding Universal Shipbuilding Corporation DSME Hanjin Heavy Industries Hyundai Heavy Industries HHI Samsung Heavy Industries SHI STX Offshore & Shipbuilding Excelerate Energy Floating LNG industry set for land- mark project start-ups and further new wave of growth Despite a current pause in commitments to new projects, the capital expenditure (Capex) for FLNG vessels is expected to amount to $35.5bn over 2015-2021. Spending on FSRUs will total $22.8bn over the same period, taking the combined expendi- ture for the Floating LNG market to $58.3bn. There is a huge interest in the pioneering projects that will drive market spend over the coming years. Future commitments by operators to the FLNG market hinges on the success of these pioneering projects. The delivery of Petronas’ PFLNG 1, also known as the PFLNG SATU, will be the world’s first FLNG vessel to start operations on its completion by the end of 2016. This will be followed by Shell’s Prelude FLNG vessel, a significantly larger project and one that is likely to shape future FLNG developments. Construction of the 488 metres long facility started in 2012 (the unit is being built by Samsung in Korea) and is expected to start up by 2017. Following these projects is a second wave of new projects that are yet to be sanctioned but are ex- pected to drive a growth in expenditure from 2019 onwards. This includes major projects in frontier regions such as East Africa. DW anticipates more floating regasification units are to be sanctioned, with Asia and Latin America being the dominant regions. Upcoming projects are visible in Indonesia, China, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, mostly led by National Oil Companies. Latin America will see deployments of floating regas units in Chile and Puerto Rico. The World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 fore- casts activity through to 2021 and contains analysis of: Market Drivers and Trends – including the monetisation of stranded gas reserves, security of supply, onshore terminal costs, environmental solutions and increasing long-term gas demand. The FLNG Supply Chain – operators, FLNG leasing, EPC contractors, vessel yards, topside sub-contractors and financing analysis. FLNG Import and Export Capacity – prospec- tive installations 2015-2021, along with DW’s forecast for the required Capex to bring this capacity online. This includes construction of base-load FLNG liquefaction and import (regasi- fication) vessels. Capex Breakdowns – expenditure for liquefac- tion and regasification vessels segmented by component looking at topsides, hull & contain- ment systems and mooring & transfer systems. And by service, including technology licencing, FEED, detailed design engineering, construction engineering, installation, hook-up & commission- ing and construction of hull & topsides. Regional analysis – Africa, Asia, Australasia, East- ern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.

Transcript of World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 Leaflet + Contents

Page 1: World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 Leaflet + Contents

World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021energy business insight

e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505

www.douglas-westwood.com

Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

21

World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Dehydration & Mercury Removal

Sulphur

Acid Gas Removal

Acid Gas Treatment

Condensate

Liquefaction Plant Process Flow

Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction

Liquefaction involves gas treatment,

liquefaction processes and storage of

LNG.

Prior to liquefaction, feed gas is put

through a removal process of contami-

nant and unwanted substances. Liquefaction compresses gas into

1/600th of its volume. The resulting

LNG is stored in tanks before being

offloaded to carriers.

Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow

Source: Chiyoda Corporation

Natural Gas

LNG

Condensate Stabilisation

Reception

LPG Removal

Liquefaction

LPG

A liquefaction process flow broadly involves

gas treatment, liquefaction and the storage

of LNG.

The gas treatment process includes acid gas

removal (also known as gas sweetening),

dehydration and heavy oil separation. Gas treatmentPrior to the liquefaction of gas, feed gas

is put through a removal process of con-

taminants and unwanted substances. This

protects the processing equipment and

achieves the specifications required by the

LNG market.

Acid gas removal (gas sweetening) is

carried out to remove environmental pol-

lutants from the natural gas feed. An amine

absorber is commonly used to absorb these

acidic gases such as hydrogen sulphide and

carbon dioxide. Sulphur is further extracted

from the hydrogen sulphide through the use

of a sulphur removal unit.Dehydration of the gas is further carried

out using an absorbent. Water is removed

from the treated gas to avoid the formation

of ice in the ensuing liquefaction process.

Heavy oil separation involves the removal

of heavier hydrocarbon components that

might cause plugging in process equipment

in the course of liquefaction. Efforts have

recently been made on the recovery of

these hydrocarbons. Liquefaction of treated gas

Major liquefaction processes include

the C3-MR (Propane Mixed Refrigerant

Process), AP-X, Cascade, Dual-Mixed

Refrigerant Technology (‘DMR’) and the

SMR methods. These methods require huge

energy input to drive the refrigeration com-

pressors. Liquefaction of the treated gas is

further discussed in the following pages.

Storage of treated gasOnce the gas is treated and liquefied, it

is stored in containment systems and of-

floaded to LNG carriers for transportation

to onshore or offshore re-gas facilities.

• Prospects• Technologies• Markets

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Offloading to Regasification Vessels

Chapter 3 : Floating Liquefaction

Side-by-side offloading can be achieved by either

loading arms or cryogenic hoses which are positioned

on the side of the ship. This offloading has been used

for crude and LPG for over 30 years and has been

proven between two LNG carriers.

A moored side by side operation is an important

option for offloading LNG FPSOs. The most critical

issues during the process are the loads in the moor-

ing lines between the two vessels and in the floating

fenders. These are determined by wave and wind

conditions as well as the loads on the two vessels.

Even in head waves the two vessels are likely to be

out of phase (jack knifing) which causes tension on

the mooring cables. Therefore side by side mooring

can only really be used in benign environments.

METHODS - Side-by-Side Transfer

Loading arms are alternatives to the direct hose

hookups for use on larger vessels. They are able to

execute transfers at higher loading rates and pres-

sure. Many FLNG concepts include loading arms

which are positioned on the side of the ship or at

the bow. They can handle both liquids and gases in a

range of temperatures. The system has to be drained

before breaking off connection.

Many companies such as FMC, Aker Solutions and

SBM offer loading arms for side by side, tandem or

ship to shore offloading. Shell’s Prelude FLNG project

will deploy the use of FMC Technologies’ offshore

loading arm systems.

Marine Loading Arms are made of several compo-

nents including the base riser, inboard arm and the

outboard arm.

EQUIPMENT - Loading Arms

Tandem offloading can involve aerial cryogenic hoses,

floating cryogenic hoses or loading arms. An aerial

arrangement involves the cryogenic hose being at-

tached to the bow manifold of the LNG carrier. A

typical floating arrangement is where the cryogenic

hose is attached to the mid ship manifold of the

LNG carrier, and floated in the sea between the two

vessels.

In environments where side by side is not possible,

tandem offloading becomes the most important form

of offloading.

Due to the relatively short distance between the

bow and stern of the two vessels and wave and

wind conditions, this is a highly complex operation.

In some conditions, differences in drafts can lead to

differences in the headings of the vessel, which adds

another dimension of complexity to the operation.

METHODS - Tandem OffloadingCryogenic hoses are flexible thermally isolated hoses

that have the ability to transfer both LNG at -162°C

and gas between FLNG vessels and LNG carriers.

Hoses can be used in environments where it may

be difficult to use loading arms, such as hostile sea

conditions where close contact between vessels is

too dangerous.

The first transfer of LNG between two vessels using

cryogenic hoses took place at the Teesside GasPort

(UK) in 2007.

EQUIPMENT - Cryogenic Hoses

LNG transfer has to be performed under most weather conditions at the offshore location. In open sea, this is a challenging operation and becomes even more difficult in harsh environments. Specialised equipment which provides safe

and efficient offloading is very important to operators.

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

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World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Australasia

Chapter 7 : Market Forecast

All of Australia’s FLNG expendi-

ture will be on its export facilities.

Expenditure will total $ bn over

2015-2021.

Australasia will see the installation of

Prelude FLNG by 2017. Average Capex per annum between

2015 and 2021:$ bn Liquefaction.Australasia represents % of global

forecast expenditure and % of global

liquefaction Capex.

Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

Expe

nditu

re (

$ bi

llion

)

ImportLiquefaction

Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Service 2014-2021

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

Expe

nditu

re (

$ bi

llion

)

Papua New GuineaAustraliaAustralasia is a key region for FLNG liquefac-

tion developers as it benefits from unconven-

tional gas reserves, such as coal bed methane.

All floating LNG expenditure will be in

export development. LiquefactionAustralasia will represent % of global

floating LNG export Capex and % of all

global FLNG Capex between 2015-2021,

an investment of $ bn. Most of these

developments will come from Australia; the

rest from activity in Papua New Guinea. The

topography of PNG reduces the economic

viability of building onshore and has encour-

aged development of projects such as Talis-

man’s Pandora FLNG and Liquid Niugini Gas’

Gulf FLNG projects.

The region is anticipating the arrival of Shell’s

Prelude FLNG development, due onstream

in 2017. The facility will have a capacity of

mmtpa and is currently being built at

Geoje Shipyard by the Technip-Samsung

consortium. The success of this landmark

project could lead to significant increases in

global Capex as financiers and operators gain

confidence in the technology. Specifically,

Woodside has mentioned making its FID on

the Browse FLNG project post the success-

ful delivery of Prelude.ExxonMobil and BHP Billiton have agreed to

develop the Scarborough gas field, km

offshore Western Australia, using a FLNG

vessel that will have processing capacity of

approximately mmtpa. Other key FLNG

projects in Australia include Browse FLNG

and Echuca Shoals FLNG.

$ million

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

LiquefactionImport

0

Total

$ million

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

AustraliaP. N. Guinea

03

Total

Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021

Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Country of Service 2014-2021

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Latin AmericaChapter 7 : Market Forecast

Expenditure for both import ( %)

and liquefaction ( %) infrastructure to

total $bn over 2015-2021.

There are many import projects

expected. Latin America will also

receive the world’s first floating LNG

liquefaction, regasification and storage

unit (FLSRU).

Average Capex per annum between

2015 and 2021:

$ m Liquefaction;

$m Import.

Latin America totals % of global fore-

cast expenditure – % of liquefaction

and % of import Capex.

Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

Expe

nditu

re (

$ bi

llion

)

Import

Liquefaction

Latin America will see an investment of

$ bn over 2015-2021, % of global spend

on floating LNG projects. % of the region’s

spend is on liquefaction facilities while %

is on import infrastructure.

Import

The region is home to five operational

floating units, all of which are located in

Argentina and Brazil. Golar LNG supplied

the FSRUs at Pecém Terminal (Golar Spirit

FSRU) and Guanabara Bay phase 1 (Golar

Winter FSRU); Excelerate is responsible

for Guanabara Bay (Experience FSRU),

Bahía Blanca GasPort, and the Puerto

Escobar LNG projects. Combined, these

projects provide Argentina and Brazil with

mmtpa of floating import capacity. Ex-

perience FSRU, the world’s largest FSRU, has

all output capacity of 1bcf/d and replaced

Golar Winter. Golar Winter is now deployed

to Brazil’s terminal in Bahía de Todos os

Santos, Salvador.

Over the forecast period, $ bn in

Capex is expected on floating import and

regasification facilities. Projects currently

under construction include Chile’s Mejillones

FSRU (Golar NB 13 FSRU), Argentina’s GNL

Puerto Cuatreros, Uruguay’s GNL Del Plata

FSRU and Puerto Rico’s Aguirre GasPort.

Other key projects include Jamaica’s Port

Esquivel FSRU, Chile’s Quintero Bay FSRU and

Dominican Republic’s Marcoris FSR

U.

Liquefaction

Floating liquefaction facilities are expected

to total $ bn for the period 2015-2021,

on the vessel Colombia FLSRU, the world’s

first floating LNG liquefaction, regasifica-

tion and storage unit. Expected onstream

in the earlier part of the forecast, it will be

situated in the Colombian Caribbean coast

and will have storage capacity of m3

of LNG. The FLRSU has regasification

facilities but its primary function is to liquefy

and export LNG produced from nearby

onshore fields.

Previously, Petrobras’ ultra-deepwater

pre-salt fields would have seen one of the

region’s first FLNG liquefaction vessels

come onstream. However, plans for this

unit have been put on hold in favour of

pipelines. Falling gas prices in the region

exacerbated by the United States’ expected

exports of shale gas outputs will threaten

Petrobras’ plans for a floating liquefaction

unit. Petrobras has already shelved its plans

for an FLNG vessel in the Santos Basin.

$ million

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

Liquefaction

0

ImportTotal

Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021

Import

Liquefaction

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Floating Liquefaction – Onshore Cost Comparison

Chapter 2 : Why Floating LNG?

Floating liquefaction removes high cost

variables such as pipelines, lowering

overall Capex.

Onshore terminals have seen EPC

costs exceed $1,500 per tpa. LNG

FPSOs could offer an estimated Capex

of $800 per tpa.

Figure 5: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs

0

500

1,000

1,500

Onshore

Offshore Well InstallationsLNG FPSOProduction PlatformGas Compression system

PipelineOnshore LNG Plant

Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025

OnshoreOffshore FloatingLinear (Onshore)

Onshore terminal costsThe cost of onshore LNG terminals has

been consistently increasing over the past

15 years with no indication of decline; some

onshore LNG facilities have seen EPC costs

as high as $1,500 per tonne per annum.

Other costs, apart from the Capex associ-

ated with the terminal construction and

design, are accumulated during the develop-

ment of an onshore LNG project. Assuming the field is located offshore, other

infrastructure is also required in order

to extract the gas, including production

platforms, subsea wells and subsea pipelines

from the production platform to the on-

shore terminal.

Floating terminal costsA floating offshore LNG terminal eliminates

the need for costly production platforms

and export pipelines, lowering overall

Capex for the project. The figure shows

that the pipeline to shore can be more than

10% of project costs (or $200 per mmtpa)

in some cases.

Furthermore, LNG FPSOs can be con-

structed in the controlled environment of

a shipyard unlike onshore terminals, which

are typically constructed in-situ ‘stick-build’

or transported to site in modular form.

FLNG developers are aiming for costs be-

tween $700 and $900 per tonne of annual

liquefaction capacity depending on the feed

gas specifications and other project specific

costs. “FLNG is a reasonably cheaper solu-

tion, but project financing does not

allow this at the moment as lending

money for the project is risky with-

out any FLNG vessels in operation.

Currently, all FLNG vessels are being

built using the Operators’ money.” Major FLNG EPC contractor

Figure 7: LNG Capital CostsSource: Oil & Gas Journal

$billion

OnshoreFloating Option (1 x 4 mmtpa) Floating Option(2 x 2 mmtpa)

Production Facilities

1.9

1.9

1.9

FPSO

1.2

-

-

Export Pipeline

2.5

-

-

LNG Plant

5.5

5.8

6.6

Total11.1

7.7

8.5

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Shipyard Review

Chapter 5 : FLNG Supply Chain

The key shipyards involved in LNG projects are located in South Korea, Japan and Singapore. South Korean yards lead in the areas of newbuild floating regasification and newbuild floating liquefaction vessel construction. To date, only

DSME and Samsung Heavy Industries have sanctioned projects for LNG FPSOs, positioning them as market leaders in floating liquefaction. Hyundai Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are poised to begin construction on

floating liquefaction vessels. Dubai Drydocks have involved themselves in the construction of the pioneer LNG FPSOs through the construction of Prelude FLNG’s turret. We can expect shipyards with construction expertise in floating

regasification vessels, FPSOs, and LNG carriers, to have the necessary qualifications and facilities to construct FLNG vessels.

Projects indicated refer to those already sanctioned or expressed interest with capability to execute.

Legend

FPSO

LNG Carriers

Newbuild Floating Regasification

Conversion Floating Regasification

Newbuild Floating Liquefaction

Annual Carrier Capacity (mmpta)3

Italcantieri Yard3

Dubai Drydocks

Keppel Shipyard

Izar Sestao Yard2

Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding2

Kvaerner Masa-Yards3

IHI Corporation

Imabari Shipbuilding

Kawasaki Heavy Industries

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries MHI

Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding

Universal Shipbuilding Corporation

3

4

2

4

2

1

DSME

Hanjin Heavy Industries

Hyundai Heavy Industries HHI

Samsung Heavy Industries SHI

STX Offshore & Shipbuilding

2

2

13

11

Excelerate Energy

Floating LNG industry set for land-mark project start-ups and further new wave of growthDespite a current pause in commitments to new projects, the capital expenditure (Capex) for FLNG vessels is expected to amount to $35.5bn over 2015-2021. Spending on FSRUs will total $22.8bn over the same period, taking the combined expendi-ture for the Floating LNG market to $58.3bn.

There is a huge interest in the pioneering projects that will drive market spend over the coming years. Future commitments by operators to the FLNG market hinges on the success of these pioneering projects.

The delivery of Petronas’ PFLNG 1, also known as the PFLNG SATU, will be the world’s first FLNG vessel to start operations on its completion by the end of 2016. This will be followed by Shell’s Prelude FLNG vessel, a significantly larger project and one that is likely to shape future FLNG developments. Construction of the 488 metres long facility started in 2012 (the unit is being built by Samsung in Korea) and is expected to start up by 2017.

Following these projects is a second wave of new projects that are yet to be sanctioned but are ex-pected to drive a growth in expenditure from 2019 onwards. This includes major projects in frontier regions such as East Africa.

DW anticipates more floating regasification units are to be sanctioned, with Asia and Latin America

being the dominant regions. Upcoming projects are visible in Indonesia, China, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, mostly led by National Oil Companies. Latin America will see deployments of floating regas units in Chile and Puerto Rico.

The World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021 fore-casts activity through to 2021 and contains analysis of:

• Market Drivers and Trends – including the monetisation of stranded gas reserves, security of supply, onshore terminal costs, environmental solutions and increasing long-term gas demand.

• The FLNG Supply Chain – operators, FLNG leasing, EPC contractors, vessel yards, topside sub-contractors and financing analysis.

• FLNG Import and Export Capacity – prospec-tive installations 2015-2021, along with DW’s forecast for the required Capex to bring this capacity online. This includes construction of base-load FLNG liquefaction and import (regasi-fication) vessels.

• Capex Breakdowns – expenditure for liquefac-tion and regasification vessels segmented by component looking at topsides, hull & contain-ment systems and mooring & transfer systems. And by service, including technology licencing, FEED, detailed design engineering, construction engineering, installation, hook-up & commission-ing and construction of hull & topsides.

• Regional analysis – Africa, Asia, Australasia, East-ern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.

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• Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.

• Methodology – the report uses research from DW’s proprietary ‘World LNG Projects Data-base’, an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of FLNG market data through primary research and professional net-works. A project-by-project review of develop-ment prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast; with the timing of expenditure phased to reflect the commercial structures of likely projects.

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‘speed-read’ summaries of key points through-out.

• An essential report – for engineering houses, contractors, shipping companies, vessel lease operators, shipbuilders, oil & gas operators, gas utilities and financial institutions wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.

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2015

World FLNG Market Forecast

Prospects, Technologies, World Markets

2015-2021

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Contents

Table of Contents

1 Summary and Conclusions ......................................7Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 8Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 9

2 Why Floating LNG? ............................................... 10Floating Liquefaction – Market Drivers .................................................................................. 11Onshore & FLNG Comparison & Definitions ....................................................................... 12Floating Liquefaction – Onshore Cost Comparison ............................................................ 13The History of Floating LNG .................................................................................................... 14Floating Regasification – Market Drivers ............................................................................... 15

3 Floating Liquefaction .............................................. 16Hulls ............................................................................................................................................... 17LNG FPSO .................................................................................................................................... 18Containment Systems ................................................................................................................ 19LNG FPSO Process Diagram .................................................................................................... 20Liquefaction Plant Process Flow............................................................................................... 21Liquefaction Technology ............................................................................................................ 22Offloading to Regasification Vessels ........................................................................................ 23

4 Floating Regasification ........................................... 24FSRU & Regasification Vessels .................................................................................................. 25Topsides & Regasification Process ........................................................................................... 26Destination LNG Offloading ..................................................................................................... 27

5 FLNG Supply Chain ............................................... 28LNG FPSO Supply Chain: Pre-FEED/FEED ............................................................................ 29LNG FPSO Supply Chain: EPC ................................................................................................. 30Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain ............................................................................. 31Financing ....................................................................................................................................... 32LNG Business Model .................................................................................................................. 33Shipyard Review .......................................................................................................................... 34Leasing Contractors – Floating Liquefaction ......................................................................... 35Leasing Contractors – Floating Regasification....................................................................... 36

6 FLNG Projects ........................................................ 37Oil Price Impact on FLNG Projects ........................................................................................ 38Floating Regasification ................................................................................................................ 39Floating Liquefaction Projects................................................................................................... 40Pioneer FLNG Projects .............................................................................................................. 41

7 Market Forecast ...................................................... 42Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 43

8 Appendix .................................................................. 60Conversion Tables ...................................................................................................................... 61Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels .......................................................................... 62Data and Text Conventions ...................................................................................................... 64

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Contents

Figures

Figure 1: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2020 .......................................................8Figure 2: Percentage Regional Comparison on FLNG 2014-2020 ........................................................8Figure 3: Top 10 countries with Proven Natural Gas Reserves (as at end 2013) ...................... 11Figure 4: Process Diagram of the LNG chain ................................................................................................ 12Figure 5: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs .............................. 13Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex ............................................................. 13Figure 7: LNG Capital Costs .................................................................................................................................. 13Figure 8: History of Floating LNG ....................................................................................................................... 14Figure 9: Overview of Operational and Future LNG Facilities ............................................................. 14Figure 10: Gas Consumption by Region 2005-2030 ................................................................................. 15Figure 11: LNG FPSO Layout ................................................................................................................................ 18Figure 12: Sloshing Inside a Tank .......................................................................................................................... 19Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow..................................................................................... 21Figure 14: Single Train Capacity for Several Liquefaction Process ...................................................... 22Figure 15: FSRU Topside Process ....................................................................................................................... 26Figure 16: Submerged Combustion Vaporiser (Closed Loop) ............................................................. 26Figure 17: Schematic of the Sea Water Vaporiser (Open-loop) ......................................................... 26Figure 18: LNG FPSO Pre-FEED & FEED Supply Chain .......................................................................... 29Figure 19: LNG FPSO EPC Supply Chain ....................................................................................................... 30Figure 20: Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain ............................................................................... 31Figure 21: Typical Finance Project Structure .................................................................................................. 32Figure 22: LNG FPSO Simplified Business Model ...................................................................................... 33Figure 23: Henry Hub Gas, West Texas Intermediate FOB & Europe Brent Spot Prices ...... 38Figure 24: Global Floating Regasification Fleet .............................................................................................. 39Figure 25: Focus areas for FLNG export project development .......................................................... 40Figure 26: Shell Prelude FLNG .............................................................................................................................. 41Figure 27: Petronas PFLNG 1 ................................................................................................................................ 41Figure 28: Columbia FLSRU ................................................................................................................................... 41Figure 29: Components of an FLNG vessel ................................................................................................... 44Figure 30: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2008-2021 ........................................ 45Figure 31: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2008-2021 ............................. 46Figure 32: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2008-2021 ........................................ 46Figure 33: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2008-2021 .................................................... 47Figure 34: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2008-2021 ........................................ 48Figure 35: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2008-2021 ................................................... 48

Figure 36: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2008-2021 ...................................... 49Figure 37: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2008-2021 ................................................. 49Figure 38: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2008-2021 .................................................. 50Figure 39: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021 ...................................................... 51Figure 40: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021 ................................................... 52Figure 41: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021 ...................................................... 53Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021 ........................................ 54Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Service 2014-2021 ............... 54Figure 44: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021 ............... 55Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021.................................. 56Figure 46: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021 ....................................... 57Figure 47: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021............................... 58Figure 48: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021 ............................ 59

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Contents

Tables

Table 1: Conventional FPSO Components ..................................................................................................... 18Table 2: Typical Natural Gas Composition ...................................................................................................... 20Table 3: Floating Liquefaction Lease Contractors and Operators ...................................................... 35Table 4: Floating LNG Projects by Status and Year .................................................................................... 40Table 5: Prelude, PFLNG and FLSRU Vessel Details .................................................................................. 41Table 6: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2014-2021 ............................................. 45Table 7: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2014-2021 ................................. 46Table 8: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2014-2021 ............................................ 46Table 9: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2014-2021 ........................................................ 47Table 10: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2014-2021 .......................................... 48Table 11: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2014-2021 ..................................................... 48Table 12: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2014-2021 ........................................ 49Table 13: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2014-2021 ................................................... 49Table 14: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2021 .................................................... 50Table 15: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021 ........................................................ 51Table 16: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021 ..................................................... 52Table 17: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021 ........................................................ 53Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021 .......................................... 54Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Country of Service 2014-2021 ............ 54Table 20: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021 ................. 55Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021 ................................... 56Table 22: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021 ........................................ 57Table 23: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021 ................................ 58Table 24: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021.............................. 59Table 25: Conversion Table ..................................................................................................................................... 61Table 26: Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels ................................................................................ 62

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