Workshop on modelling urban and regional measures for improved air

quality UTRECHT 15 -16 February 2017

UNECE Air Convention - Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM)

EU- Forum for Air Quality Modelling (FAIRMODE)

Introduction Rob Maas - co-chair TFIAM

TFIAM

Efficiency of national & International actions

Harmonisation of practices Quality Assurance & robustness Tools to assess effectiveness of local actions

Why a joint TFIAM / FAIRMODE workshop?

Questions

1. Which high-impact local/regional measures are available to reduce concentrations of particulate matter or NO2?

2. Which tools are available to assess the health benefits of local/regional measures?

3. How cost-effective are local/regional measures compared to additional national/European measures?

4. What are the opportunities and barriers for a multi-level approach to control measures? How to define an optimal strategy “from local to global scale”?

Focus on hotspots: the NECD will not guarantee AQLVs everywhere

Source: IIASA NO2

Focus on health: majority of EU-population is exposed to

concentrations above WHO guideline levels

EU - AQLV WHO – AQG = long term target

Policy shift from a focus on exceedances (hotspots) towards optimizing health benefits?

Source: EEA

REVISED GOTHENBURG PROTOCOL & NECD: Loss in average life expectancy due to PM-exposure - in months

(source IIASA)

2005 2030-NECD 2030-opt 2030-mfr

Belgium 10.2 5.9 5.0 4.5 Denmark 6.4 3.5 3.0 2.7 France 8.8 4.4 3.8 3.2 Germany 7.9 4.8 4.0 3.6 Luxemburg 9.2 5.2 4.4 3.9 Netherlands 8.8 5.0 4.3 4.0 UK 5.8 3.7 2.9 2.6

EU-28 8.5 5.0 4.1 3.6

Significant potential for health improvement

Source: Aphekom project

Source: IIASA, TSAP-report #12

Ammonia is a transboundary issue

REVISED GOTHENBURG PROTOCOL & NECD Ammonia emission reductions NECD (5-7-2016)

and abatement potential (IIASA)

NH3 emission reduction percentages

level 2005 2012 2020-

2029 2030-NECD 2030-opt 2030-mfr

Belgium 73 1 2 13 16 19 Denmark 73 13 24 24 37 47 France 675 1 4 13 29 37 Germany 593 5 5 29 39 50 Luxemburg 6 0 1 22 24 27 Netherlands 146 13 13 21 25 25 United Kingdom 308 8 8 16 21 22 EU-28 3982 6 6 19 27 35

Actions to meet WHO guideline levels

Continental 1. Ensure Euro-6 standards work in reality 2. Implement climate & energy targets 3. Set emission-standards for e.g. wood burning large cattle farms, ships, … National 1. Ratify and enforce international agreements 2. Implement climate and energy policies 3. Control on maintenance of Euro-6 vehicles 4. Scrapping schemes for old vehicles

Cities 1. Low emission zones 2. Stimulate electric vehicles 3. Set speed limits 4. Healthy city design/integrated mobility plan 5. Inform and involve the people

< 2050 : WHO-guidelines are feasible with climate AND additional air measures

http://www.unece.org/index.php?id=42861&L=0

Low emission zone Utrecht - June 2015

#

TNO-conclusion: • Significant decline in concentration of black carbon • Effect on NO2 unclear

Moreover in Utrecht: Average bicycle use: 616km/person/year 50% of trips (< 5km) by bike Social benefits: € 250 mn/yr

Alternative facts (citizen science)

Source: http://utrechtmilieu.nl/meetnet/ https://www.duic.nl/algemeen/duic-in-data-milieuzone-effect-of-niet-wij-zochten-het-uit/

Running annual average NO2 measurements, Utrecht

Index running annual average , Dec 2011 = 100

Samplers in LEZ

Samplers on LEZ border

Samplers outside LEZ

Samplers in LEZ

Samplers on LEZ border

Samplers outside LEZ

Future emission factors

Source: International Council for Clean Transportation - ICCT

Future EU28 car fleet 2015-2030

http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_real-world-NOX-RDE-2015-2030_dec2016.pdf

+12% -45% -70%

Long term impact LEZ on NOx: only with strict diesel RDE-standards

http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_real-world-NOX-RDE-2015-2030_dec2016.pdf

Alternative futures • Carbon neutral cars • Shift to slow modes • Shift to public transport

(FP7 - Pathways project) Source: Imperial College

Source: Global Burden of Disease Database

contribution in %

Challenge: Combine air policies and promotion of healthy life styles

Synergy : air and health policy

Coherent multilevel strategies for healthy urban living

2012 PM2,5 µg/m3 2 15 27 35

EU instruments: National emission ceilings Emission standards

National instruments: e.g. taxes & subsidies infrastructure

Local instruments: permits, projects low emission zones

Challenges for this meeting

• Who can design a plan with the largest reduction in average exposure of the urban population?

• What will be the financial and legal barriers to implement such a plan?

• How can we improve local-national-international exchange of knowledge and experiences?