Workshop Introduction
description
Transcript of Workshop Introduction
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Hazard Risk Assessment Workshop
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Why are we here?• Emergency events and disasters impose significant social, economic and
environmental costs on Australia.
• WA’s large geographical expanse subject to a wide variety of hazards
•
• A range of potential ‘vulnerabilities’ exist that may be impacted by any of these hazards.
• Gain a robust understanding of the risks the State faces • To strategise appropriate and cost effective mitigation activities.
• To prioritise these mitigation strategies with aim to lower risk and in turn build a
resilient State.
27 hazardsNatural
IntegratedMan-Made
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Background
• In the 2012 & 2013 Emergency Preparedness Reports
• Four key themes run throughout1. Shared responsibility2. Improving coordination
particularly in response3. Continuous improvement ethos4. Embedding a Risk Management
approach
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Embedding Risk Management
Embedding a Risk Management philosophy will assist in:
The emergency management sector keeping pace with growing challenges
such as:• Climate Change (e.g. drying climate)• Growing population• Changing population distributions• Expanding infrastructure and resource
developments regionally
Realignment of resourcing priorities
Promoting greater emphasis on proactive Preparation and Prevention
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Embedding Risk Management• State Emergency Management Policy 2.9 –
“Management of Emergency Risks”
• Covers all Public Agencies involved in the Emergency Management Sector
Over next few years the State will: Gain a ‘comprehensive’ understanding of
the risks in which they are involved Apply ‘consistent’ Risk Assessment
methodologies at state, district & local scale
Develop appropriate treatment strategies where necessary
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Embedding Risk Management
• also known in the Risk Assessment process as Impact Categories.
*Infrastructure and Economy merged in NERAG 2014
• ‘States Core Objectives’ cover 6 categories. They are*:
• protect lives and well-beingPeople
• maintain and grow the States productive capacityEconomy
• maintain key infrastructure such as transport & utilities
Infrastructure
• maintain public order, safety, sanitation, education, health, culture
Social
• maintaining public administration, democracy, rule of law
Government
• protect ecosystem and biodiversityEnvironment
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Risk Management ApproachSEMP 2.9 calls for a consistent and comprehensive approach in WA
– Consistent approach• ISO 31,000 standard, National Emergency Risk
Assessment Guidelines (NERAG 2014)
• WA Emergency Risk Management Guide
– Comprehensive approach (over coming years)
• All Hazards covered (27 gazetted hazards in WA)
• State, District and Local Scale covered
• Aggregate and Integrate between all levels
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State Risk Project
To gain a comprehensive and consistent understanding of the risks that the State faces at multiple levels:
– State– District– Local
• Assist State in planning for potential emergency situations
• Help prioritise future resource allocations
• Emphasis towards prevention and preparedness activities
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Benefits and OutcomesIncreased understanding of major risks and impacts at a State, District
and Local scale
Assist resource allocations at all levels, emphasis towards prevention and preparedness activities
Data to evaluate mitigation activities including assessing the benefits to the cost
Improved basis for development of LEMAs and Westplans
Increased awareness of risk across WA and knowledge of the State, District and Local framework for managing risk.
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Risk Assessments• Extensive and diverse state, subject to innumerable events
• To constrain the scope & complexity, conduct risk assessment workshops:
• Output of workshops allows for comparison across the state and between different scales (State, district and local)
Use credible worst-case scenarios for
events that require a large-scale response
Address top priority hazards first
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RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
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Risk Assessment ProcessChristchurch NZ 2011
We will undertake the risk assessment process in three stages:
• Stage 1 – Risk Identification
• Stage 2 – Risk Analysis
• Stage 3 – Risk Treatment (Next stage)
Takes all forms of expertise and domain knowledge to robustly identify and analyse the risks
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Agenda
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Resources for workshop
WA ERM Guide and materials
NERAG 2014
Preparedness Report
Regional Information
Appropriate Westplan
Later:
Risk Criteria, Scenarios, Impact Tables, Risk Statements
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Hazard Assessment
Risk Identification
Stage One:
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Generate risk statements identifying the relationship between the source of risk, the hazard event, the credible
consequence of the event and the impact area.
Identify specific vulnerabilities & controlswithin the six key areas (people, economy, social setting, infrastructure, environment, public
administration)
Agree on common criteria for risk assessment e.g. AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, NERAG, ERM Guide
Establish the Context using predetermined credible scenario
Risk Identification
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Establish the Context
• Objective: Conduct an assessment of the risks to >insert area< from a >insert hazard< event in order to direct and prioritise the community’s emergency management efforts through prevention, preparedness, response and recovery activities.
• Scope:The assessment will address the risks from a >insert hazard< event to the >insert area< and consider possible impacts to people, the environment, the economy, public administration, the social setting and infrastructure. Events to be considered are:
>Insert Scenario<
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Establish the Context
The Hazard
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Establish the Context
The Impacts
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Establish the Context
The Scenario(s)
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Risk Criteria • SEMP 2.9 Criteria:
ISO 31000 standard
• State Risk Project Criteria: National Emergency Risk Assessment Guide
Western Australia Emergency Management Guide
Specific guidelines: Bushfire Risk Management Planning Guidelines
• Criteria Elements: Consequence Table
Likelihood Table
Risk Matrix
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Risk Criteria
Six key elements being assessed:
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Risk Criteria
Consequence Table
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WA specific Risk Criteria
The State specific consequence criteria for people is based upon:
• Western Australian population of 2,239,170 people • the agreed State Context • the mortality rates given in the NERAG• Thus: Catastrophic > 200 death
Major > 20 deaths
The State specific consequence criteria for economy is based upon:
• The Western Australia State Government revenue of $25.477 Billion • This figure is applied to the financial loss limits as set out in the NERAG• Thus: Catastrophic > $750M
Major $250M - $750M
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Risk Criteria
Likelihood Table
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WA specific Risk CriteriaLikelihood
= Event likelihood e.g. frequency of cyclone
(AEP)
xRisk Statement likelihood
e.g. chance of house flooding
(% chance)
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WA specific Risk Criteria
Min MaxAlmost Certain 0.3 1Likely 0.031 0.3Possible 0.0031 0.03Unlikely 0.00031 0.003Rare 0.000031 0.0003Very Rare 0.0000031 0.00003Almost Incredible <0.0000031
Example Likelihood = (AEP) x (Risk Statement %) = (1% chance in year) x (17% chance) = 0.01 x 0.17
= 0.0017
= UNLIKELY
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Risk Criteria
Risk Matrix
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Identify Vulnerabilities
• Key assets in <insert area> that may be vulnerable:
People Environment Social Setting
Infrastructure EconomyPublic
Administration
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Identify Vulnerabilities
• Controls: Things that are in place now which lower the
vulnerability of the assets.
Keep these in mind when looking at the risk statements!
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Risk Statements
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Hazard Assessment
Risk Analysis
Stage Two:
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Steps of AnalysisFor our purposes imagine the event IS taking place, for each Risk Statement:
• Consider any Prevention, Preparedness, Response and/or Recovery Controls (PPRR) already in placeStep 1:
• Assess maximal possible ConsequenceStep 2:
• Assess the Likelihood of that ConsequenceStep 3:
• Assign a risk levelStep 4:
• Assess Confidence of the decisionsStep 5:
Group decision, Majority rule
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Macro-enabled Risk Assessment Tool
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Step 2: Assess the maximal Consequence
The risk statement need only fulfil one of the consequence criteria points of a level, not all, for it to be assigned that consequence level.
For each risk assessment, assign a consequence level.
Start at the highest level ‘Catastrophic’ and work down towards ‘Insignificant’
NoNoYes
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Almost certain
50/50
Extremely rare
100%
50%
0.01%
Risk Statement
Table
Probability of Risk Statement
Probability of event
Likelihood of consequence
What we are going to assess :
Determined by expert
Step 3: Assess the Likelihood of that Consequence
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Step 3: Assess the Likelihood of that Consequence
Chance that the risk statement will occur:
Certain 100%
50/50 X %
Near Impossible 0.001%
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= Medium Risk
Step 4: Assign a risk rating
Conclusion: Moderate Consequence x Unlikely Likelihood
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Step 5: Assess Confidence of decision
• Assess the confidence in the assessment – Depending on level of knowledge, level of data, level of agreement
– Default to moderate (time saving)
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WORKSHOP RISK ASSESSMENT
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Spilt into Groups
In order to progress through this workshop in a timely manner we propose, with your agreement, to break the assessment into three parallel streams of impact category specialists:
1. People and Public Admin
2. Infrastructure and Environment
3. Economy and Social Setting•You will be able to choose the stream in which you will work
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Thank you