Workforce & Economic Outlook · Workforce & Economic Outlook Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist 4th...
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Workforce & Economic Outlook Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist Department of Workforce Development 4th Annual Partner Ideas Exchange Forum January 29, 2019 Madison, WI
Transcript of Workforce & Economic Outlook · Workforce & Economic Outlook Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist 4th...
Workforce & Economic
Outlook
Dennis K. Winters
Chief Economist
Department of Workforce Development4th Annual Partner Ideas Exchange Forum
January 29, 2019
Madison, WI
Total Non-farm Jobs
Source: LMI, OEA
2,600,000
2,650,000
2,700,000
2,750,000
2,800,000
2,850,000
2,900,000
2,950,000
3,000,000
3,050,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Wisconsin Total Nonfarm Jobs (NSA)
2007 2010 2016 2017 2018
Economic Outlook
Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA
2,600,000
2,700,000
2,800,000
2,900,000
3,000,000
3,100,000
3,200,000
3,300,000
Labor Force & Employment (SA)
Labor force
Employment
Economic Outlook
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA
“… every time the economy strengthens,
‘they want to raise [interest] rates again.’”
-- The Finance 202; July 25, 2018
Lamenting Economic Theory
Projected Population Change
2015 - 2035
Source: WI Dept. of Administration Demographic Services Center and U.W.-Madison Applied Population Lab
Projected Population Change
2015 – 2025
People Aged 65 & Older
8
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
( x
10
00
)
POPULATION
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Wisconsin’s Workforce Growth
The New Economy
How Employment is Tracking
• GDP
• Inflation
• Interest Rates
• Recession
Economic Growth
GDP
• Slower
– Less stimulus
– Tax cuts run course
– Trade
• Consumption
– Housing
– Autos
Mortgage Rates
Inflation
• Some cost push
– Wages
– Commodity prices
• Trade
– Global v. Domestic capacity
– Tarriffs
Inflation
Interest Rates
• How well managed
– GDP
– Inflation
– Trade, currencies
• Cost of capital
– Non-residential investment
– Housing
Interest Rates
Source: fred.stlouisfed.org
Effective Federal Funds Rate
Recession
• Uncertainty
– Trade/Investment
– Profits/Stocks
– Consumption
• Self-fulfilling
– Less Consumption/More Savings
– Panic
Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income
Months
Current expansion; July 2009 - ?;
116 months (February)
• There have been 11 business cycles since 1945
• There have been 33 business cycles since 1854
• Average post-war recession lasted 11.1 months
• Great Recession lasted 18 months
• Great Depression lasted 43 months
• Recession of 1873 lasted 65 months
