Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021canmac.com/Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic...

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Demographic - Economic Outlook

2011 - 2021

Prepared For:

Prepared By:

Canmac Economics Limited

April, 2012

Nova Scotia Demographic - Economic Outlook 2011 - 2021

2

SECTION 1 - NOVA SCOTIA TRADING PARTNERS

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

The Global economy continued to exhibit a fragile recovery in 2011 – with rescue plans for

Greece and worries about Spanish banks adding to an uncertain recovery. Table 1.1

provides the latest World Bank Global Outlook (January, 2012). Overall world growth is

expected to reach 2.5 percent in 2012 and 3.1 percent in 2013. Thereafter one can expect

the next three years to exhibit growth in the 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent range as the world

economy moves from recovery to the normal phase of the business cycle.

Table 1.1 The Global Outlook Summary

Real GDP growth 2009 2010 2011e 2012f 2013f World -2.3 4.1 2.7 2.5 3.1 Memo item: World (PPP weights) -0.9 5.0 3.7 3.4 4.0 High income -3.7 3.0 1.6 1.4 2.0 Euro Area -4.2 1.7 1.6 -0.3 1.1 Japan -5.5 4.5 -0.9 1.9 1.6 United States -3.5 3.0 1.7 2.2 2.4 Developing Countries 2.0 7.3 6.0 5.4 6.0 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 9.7 8.2 7.8 7.8 Europe and Central Asia -6.5 5.2 5.3 3.2 4.0 Latin America and Caribbean -2.0 6.0 4.2 3.6 4.2 Middle East and N. Africa 4.0 3.6 1.7 2.3 3.2 South Asia 6.1 9.1 6.6 5.8 7.1 Sun-Saharan Africa 2.0 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.6 Source: World Bank. Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity, e = estimate, f = forecast.


3

Both the U.S. and Canadian economy are showing signs of revival from the recent

recessionary period. The main forecast risk moving forward is for a high inflationary

period followed by high interest rates to curb inflation. To date the U.S. and Canadian

monetary policy authorities have been very accommodating.

The following assumptions are used in Canmac’s econometric simulation model to project

Nova Scotia’s economic outlook.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -2021

Canadian GDP % Growth 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.1 US GDP % Growth (2002 $billions) 1.7 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.1


4

SECTION 2 - NOVA SCOTIA OUTLOOK GEARING UP FOR PROSPERITY

In 2010, the Nova Scotia

economy stood at 945,000

persons. The economy had

an economic output (Real

GDP millions of $2002) of

$29,951 and employed 452

thousand persons. The

inflation rate was 2.2 percent

and the unemployment rate

was 9.3 percent. Historically,

the Nova Scotia economy has

underperformed relative to

the Canadian economy. Charts

2.1 to 2.3 show that Nova

Scotia’s average GDP growth

has been 1.3 percent compared

to the average of all Canadian

provinces of 1.5 percent. Nova

Scotia’s personal disposable

income per capita in 2010 was

$27,308 compared to the all

province average of $28,828.

Finally, the province’s

unemployment rate was 9.3 percent compared to the all province average of 8.6 percent.


5

By 2021, Canmac projects that:

• the economy will grow to 34,522 ($2002 millions);

• the labour force will be 469.5 persons;

• the inflation rate will be 2.5 percent, and

• the unemployment rate will be 2.1 percent.

STRATEGIC DRIVERS ON THE DEMAND SIDE – TRADITIONAL MARKETS

Nova Scotia’s future economic success, like all small open economies, depends on the

success of its export markets. It is export markets that drive provincial prosperity by

earning income outside the

province’s boundaries that are

then respent in the domestic

market. Figure 2.1 shows the

province’s exports

disaggregated into exports to

Canada and international

exports. The rest of Canada is a

slightly more important market

for Nova Scotia than the rest of

the world with 53.8 percent of total exports. Exports to the rest of Canada is dominated by

service exports (78.2 percent of total service exports) whereas international exports have

58.8 percent of total goods exports. In addition to the official exports, it should be

mentioned that Nova Scotia has a high concentration of defence related establishments.

Nova Scotia has approximately 40 percent of all Canadian military assets. Hence, Nova

Scotia is also a high ‘exporter’ of defence services to the rest of Canada. Employment in this

sector totaled over 10,000 in 2010 (military personnel only).


6

STRATEGIC DRIVER ON DEMAND SIDE - LARGE SCALE PROJECTS

Over the medium to long term, the Nova Scotia economy is poised for a major surge as its

traditional ‘export’ markets receive a major boost from large projects. There are many

exciting developments gathering momentum in the Nova Scotia economy. Some of the

major projects are:

1) The $960 million Deep Panuke natural gas field is about to start production.

2) A $25 billion Irving Shipyard federal shipbuilding contract is in the planning stages.

3) A successful Shell bid of $971 million for offshore oil exploration rights was

completed – the largest bid of its kind ever seen in Atlantic Canada.

4) A joint venture between the Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador

governments to develop a hydro project on the lower sector of the Churchill River in

Labrador will help boost investment and provide jobs for Nova Scotians between

2013-16. The $6.2 billion Lower Churchill Power Project includes a 180-kilometre,

subsea transmission cable costing $1.2 billion that will bring hydro electricity to

Cape Breton, Nova Scotia.

The total amount of new projects is impressive. Currently on the province’s books are

major projects (over $300 million) in the following categories:

• Shipbuilding, Energy, Oil & Gas Exploration and Development – $27.5+ billion. • Residential Development - $3.5+ billion. • Infrastructure and Education - $0.9+ billion.

In addition, there are other major projects (over $300 million) either nearing approval or under active consideration. These include:

• Energy Related - $2.4+ billion. • Infrastructure and residential - $2.2+ billion.

Appendix A provides a more detailed listing of these projects.


7

LARGE PROJECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS

The potential economic impacts of these large capital projects will have a significant

positive impact on Nova Scotia in the coming years. The Deep Panuke natural gas project is

scheduled to come on stream in 2012 and provide direct employment of 200 workers and

pump $150 million per year into the economy. The Shell exploration project will provide

direct employment during the exploration phase but the real payoff will come with the

potential development of further oil and gas in the offshore. The Lower Churchill project is

expected to provide over 1,200 jobs to the Nova Scotia economy during the construction

phase.

The major economic impact for the Nova Scotia economy will be the construction of

Canada’s combat vessels at the Irving Shipyard in Halifax.

ECONOMIC IMPACT – IRVING SHIPBUILDING CONTRACT An economic impact assessment of the $25 billion Irving Shipyard contract was completed

by the Conference Board of Canada as part of the Irving Shipyard bid proposal. Chart 2.4

shows Nova Scotia real GDP emanating from the contract. As shown in the figure, output

increases beginning in

2012 at $344 million

greater than would be

the case without the

contract. Thereafter

output increases

steadily to a maximum

of almost $1 billion

($977) in 2021 and

stays over $800 million


8

until the conclusion of the project in 2030. This output change is due to three effects, 1) the

direct project expenditures (less imports), 2) the respending of the project expenditures on

local suppliers, and 3) the respending by households in Nova Scotia on Nova Scotia goods

and services. In 2010, Nova Scotia’s real GDP was $29,951 million (2002$). It’s growth

from 2010 was 1.91 percent. To a first approximation, a 1 percent increase in Nova Scotia

real GDP implies a growth of $300 million (2002$). In 2012, the shipyard project will

increase GDP growth by 1.14 percent over and above that expected by forecasters before

the project award. This represents an almost doubling of the provincial forecast by what

was expected before the contract award.

Total employment increases resulting from the shipyard project are provided in Chart 2.5.

Employment will increase from 4,423 in 2012 and peak at 11,495 in 2020. Table 2.1 shows

the distribution of total employment in 2020. As expected, manufacturing has the majority

of employment opportunities. Interpretation of the Conference Board’s impacts suggests

that a major portion

of employment

opportunities will

come not from the

existing resident

labour force but new

additions to the

labour force (which

occurs by decreasing

out migration or by

in migration).


9

Table 2.1 – Irving Shipyard Contract

Nova Scotia Distribution of Total Employment 2020 Industry Distribution Total employment 11,495 Agriculture & other primary sector 34 Manufacturing 7,397 Construction 353 Utilities 50 Transportation & warehousing 127 Wholesale and retail trade 1,171 Finance, insurance and real estate 240 Other commercial service industries 2,040 Public administration & defence 84 Unemployment -5,095 Source: Conference Board of Canada

STRATEGIC DRIVER ON THE DEMAND SIDE – FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS The other key demand driver for the Nova Scotia economy is federal government transfers.

On balance, more comes into the province than leaves in taxes. In 2009, the Federal

government spent $12.2 billion and had revenues of $5.0 billion in Nova Scotia. In

particular, transfers for Canada pension payments and old age security will rise over the

forecast period and provide an important stimulus to consumer expenditures.

STRATEGIC DRIVERS ON THE SUPPLY SIDE – DEMOGRAPHICS

It has been said that demographics explains 2/3 of everything. Accordingly, we have

conducted a simulation projection with the Canmac Demographic Model. The overall

assumptions follow historic trends with the exception of migration.


10

The overall demographic

assumptions are 1) a

fertility rate of 1.6 and 2)

a net in-migration rate of

2,000 persons per year.

These assumptions

reflect historic fertility

rates and a modest

increase in net migration

to reflect attraction of

workers for the Shipyard

contract and an increased

emphasis by the

provincial government to

attract new migrants. A

major feature of the

demographic landscape

is the contracting of the

population cohorts for

males and females 15-24

and 25-54 age groups. As shown in Charts 2.6 and 2.7 these age cohorts started declining

in the mid 1990’s and continue to do so. In contrast, the 55+ age group has been growing.

Nova Scotia labour productivity – Real GDP per employee has averaged 1 percent growth

over the historic period 1990 – 2010. There will be added pressure over the forecast

period to counter the shrinking labour force. In our base case forecast we assume labour

productivity will rise to 1.25 percent per year to overcome the potential labour supply

shortage.


11

BASE CASE MACRO FORECAST

In summary, Nova Scotia’s economic drivers are:

Driver Outlook

Export of Good & Services Traditional exports and services slowing growth due to slow growth in major trading partners U.S. and the rest of Canada.

Upside potential for new markets in fast growing South East Asia.

Strong resurgence in shipbuilding markets and strong upside potential in oil and gas.

Defence Expenditures Excluding shipbuilding, defence expenditures will exhibit modest belt tightening.

Federal Government & Corporate Transfers Rise in pensions, etc. from ageing population.

Fall in employment insurance as unemployment rate falls.

Demographics In-migration up and fertility rate 1.6.


12

Based on these assumptions and conducting simulations with Canmac’s proprietory

demographic – econometric macro model we find that:

• Overall Nova Scotia population (census adjusted) will grow from 945,206 in 2011 to 946,229 by 2021.

• Labour force population for the core labour force (15-64) will decrease from 647,595 in 2011 to 596,699 by 2021.

• The population 65+ will make up an increasing share of the total population from 162,780 in 2011 to 227,158 in 2021.


13

Over the forecast period 2011 to

2021 the Nova Scotia economy

will exhibit GDP growth in the 1.5

percent range to 2016 and as the

Shipyard contract slows down

growth will slow to 1.1 percent.

Inflation rates, which are the

consequence primarily of inflation

in its trading partners will remain

low – in the 2.5 percent range.

The unemployment rate will fall

over the period reaching 2.1

percent by 2021.

The major forecast result and

strategic challenge over the

forecast period is that the Nova

Scotia economy’s growth is labour

constrained. The economy has the

demand potential to reach higher

levels of growth but will be

constrained by available labour

supply.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Chart 2.11 GDP at 2002 Prices %Change

Source: Satatistics Canada, Canmac Economics

Average 1.35

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Chart 2.12 - Nova Scotia Unemployment Rate


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Chart 2.13 - Nova Scotia CPI % Change



14

Labour supply can be increased by three generic methods: 1) increase in migration, 2)

increase in productivity, and 3) increase in labour force participation rates. Hence over the

forecast period, these will be the three policy priorities as businesses seek to increase

production and governments seek to raise revenues to overcome the demands for health

care from retiring baby boomers, etc.

The major message coming from the forecast simulations is the major structural change in

the provincial economy – moving from a weak demand potential to a constrained supply

potential. Historically, the province has had surplus labour. It is now entering a period of

constrained labour. The provincial economy does not achieve its demand potential

because it will lack the productive capacity to deliver the goods and services that are

demanded under this scenario, there are upside risks to higher inflation rates as wage

pressure builds. However, wage rates will make the province uncompetitive if not

accompanied by productivity. The net results of this is a long period of stagnation – not

unlike the Japanese experience.

An alternative scenario is possible – an era of high growth and modest inflation. The

demand for the province’s goods and services have the potential to be realized if

productivity growth is achieved.


15

SECTION 3 – NOVA SCOTIA RESIDENTIAL OUTLOOK

Nova Scotia’s residential sector is expected to show modest and then slow growth over the

forecast period. Bright spots in the market will be upscale homes and new home

construction for the Halifax market.

Nova Scotia’s residential sector is driven by demographics first and foremost and then by

income levels. The young adult population is the most important source of household

growth and in the coming decades, as the number of Nova Scotians in this age group

diminishes then so will the overall demand for housing. Table 3.1 shows headship rates

from the 2006 census data. Applying these to the Canmac population forecasts provides a

projection of future household levels. These are provided in Chart 3.1.

Table 3.1 Nova Scotia Headship Rates

Age Population Households Headship Rate

18-24 80,715 14,315 0.177352 25-34 105,225 49,195 0.467522 35-44 136,640 73,255 0.536117 45-54 148,900 82,640 0.555003 55-64 119,815 68,670 0.573134 65-74 73,300 46,260 0.631105 75+ 64,915 42,510 0.654856 Source: Computed from Statistics Canada


16

Housing starts in any given year depend on the projected household levels and the general

state of the economy in a given year. Two additional sources for new housing starts not

captured by headship rates are, 1) vacation homes and 2) population shifts within the

province. The vacation home market is a growing market in Nova Scotia as the resident

population with rising incomes acquire a vacation home. In addition there is a growing

market from non-residents building a second home in the province.

The growth in the Halifax Region has resulted in a vibrant demand for new housing. The

latest census data show strong growth in the Halifax Region and surrounding areas. Halifax

County grew by 4.7 percent and Hants county by 2.7 percent.


17

Table 3.2 Population Growth Nova Scotia Counties 2006 – 2011

County 2006 Census 2011 Census % Change

Annapolis 21,438 20,756 -3.2

Antigonish 18,836 19,589 4 Cape Breton 105,928 101,619 -4.1 Colchester 50,023 50,968 1.9 Cumberland 32,046 31,353 -2.2 Digby 18,992 18,036 -5 Guysborough 9,058 8,143 -10.1 Halifax 372,858 390,328 4.7 Hants 41,182 42,304 2.7 Inverness 19,036 17,947 -5.7 Kings 60,035 60,589 0.9 Lunenburg 47,150 47,313 0.3 Pictou 46,513 45,643 -1.9 Queens 11,212 10,960 -2.2 Richmond 9,740 9,293 -4.6 Shelburne 15,544 14,496 -6.7 Victoria 7,594 7,115 -6.3 Yarmouth 26,277 25,275 -3.8 Statistics Canada Census Profile 2011 Catalogue no. 98-316-XWE. Ottawa. Released February 8, 2012.

Canmac’s Econometric Model predicts housing starts to average 4,087 units over the 2011

to 2021 period. Overtime, the changing demographics will trend the housing starts down

so that by the end of the forecast period, housing starts will be 2,617 compared to the 2011

value of 4,695.

While the overall trend for new housing is down, it is likely that over the medium term,

there is an increase in demand for the higher end market since the 55+ cohort is a growing

segment of the population. However as this age cohort moves up in average age there will

likely be a trend to downsize and of course ultimately to senior housing.


18

Appendix A – Major Projects


19

MAJOR PROJECTS

A review of existing and proposed major capital projects in Nova Scotia provides the basis for a solid economic performance over the medium term. The major projects are centered around Nova Scotia ocean industry cluster – shipbuilding and offshore oil and gas exploration.

SHIPBUILDING

1) Combat shipbuilding - $25 billion, 2012 – 2030

The Irving Halifax Shipyard was awarded the $25 billion contract to construct Arctic/offshore patrol ships and Canadian surface combatants ships.

2) Frigate Modernization and Life Extension Contract

The Halifax Shipyard was awarded one of two contracts to upgrade the Halifax class patrol frigates for the Canadian navy. The modernization will include a new command and control system, new radar capability, a new electronic warfare system and upgraded communications and missiles. Separate refit and stand-alone projects will include installation of new mechanical systems and modifications to accommodate the new Cyclone helicopters and new military satellite communications system.

OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION

1) Deep Panuke Natural Gas Development, 2008 - 2012

First gas from EnCana’s $960 million project near Sable Island is planned for the fourth quarter of 2011. The delivery of the production field centre (PFC) by Single Buoy Moorings Inc. (SBM) is expected in late June with hook-up and commissioning in the third quarter. SBM was awarded the contract to construct and operate the $350 million PFC (which is not included in the $960 million construction cost). The PFC will be leased by EnCana for the duration of operations at Deep Panuke. Irving Shipbuilding delivered a $60 million supply boat for the project in February that will also be leased for the project. Work highlights for 2011 include: the return of UK-based Subsea 7 (formerly Acergy) who will install the subsea lines to the PFC, Tideway of the Netherlands will begin rock placement operations on the flowlines and the gas export pipeline and Aecon Fabco of Nova Scotia will continue to work on protection structures for various components of the project. Natural gas reserves


20

are estimated to be 632 billion cubic feet with production peaking at 300 million cubic feet per day. Repsol YPF, the lead partner in the Canaport LNG project in Saint John, signed a deal in 2009 to purchase all the gas produced from Deep Panuke.

2) Shell Canada Offshore Exploration Program - $97 million, 2013 – 2022

Shell Canada has successfully bid on a set of offshore permits totaling $971 million which will see survey work starting in 2013.

Other major projects (over $300 million) are:

• Bedford West Development - $1 billion, 2008 – 2027 • The Ravines of Bedford South - $600 million, 2003 – 2017 • King’s Wharf Waterfront Development - $500 million, 2010 – 2017 • Sydney Tar Ponds Clean-up - $400 million, 2005 – 2014 • Russell Lake West Development - $400 million, 2005 – 2013 • Portland Hills - $370 million, 2000 – 2016 • Gas Tax Funding for Municipalities - $335 million, 2007 – 2014 • School Construction Program - $307 million, 2009 – 2015 • Dalhousie University Capital Projects - $304 million, 2008 – 2013 • Bedford Common Development - $300 million, 2006 – 2017 • Hubbards Residential Development - $300 million, 2010 -2017

In addition, there are a number of large projects (over $300 million) nearing approval:

• Shell Canada Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration - $971 million • Maritime Link Power Transmission Line - $600 million, 2013 – 2016 • Wind Power Expansion - $500 million, 2013 – 2014 • Halifax Convention Centre - $500 million, 2011 – • Donkin Coal Mine Development - $350 million, 2011 – 2013

Large projects (over $300 million) under active consideration:

• Forest Lakes Country Club - $1 billion • Strait Area Container Terminal - $475 million • Bayer’s Lake Business Park Expansion - $300 million


21

APPENDIX B – FORECAST TABLES


22

Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Popu

lation

0-14

134,8

3113

2,733

130,9

1712

9,416

127,6

9812

6,555

125,5

1312

4,667

123,7

8712

3,113

122,3

72Po

pulat

ion 15

-6464

7,595

643,8

1063

9,644

635,6

0963

1,702

626,9

8362

2,174

616,7

4661

0,526

603,6

4759

6,699

Popu

lation

65+

162,7

8016

9,851

176,7

9818

3,093

189,2

5819

5,411

201,3

0720

7,348

213,9

2822

0,644

227,1

58To

tal Po

pulat

ion94

5,206

946,3

9494

7,359

948,1

1894

8,658

948,9

4994

8,994

948,7

6294

8,241

947,4

0394

6,229

Hous

ehold

s40

3,874

407,0

6941

0,031

412,9

5741

5,788

418,4

1242

0,671

422,7

8142

4,590

426,1

4342

7,481

Hous

ing St

arts

4,750

4,94

4

4,8

91

4

,836

4,738

4,53

8

4,1

68

3

,853

3,462

3,06

1

2,6

81

Demo

graph

ic Ind

icato

rs

Sourc

e: Ca

nmac

Demo

graph

ic - Ec

onom

ic Mod

el


23


24


25


26


27


28


29

APPENDIX C – HALIFAX SHIPYARD IMPACT


30

Table C1 – Halifax Shipyard Project Nova Scotia Key Economic Indicators

Year Real GDP at market prices (millions of constant (2002$)

Labour Force Employment

2012 344 2,454 4,423 2013 352 2,708 4,880 2014 426 3,275 5,909 2015 417 2,973 5,354 2016 399 2,840 5,094 2017 514 3,531 6,337 2018 559 3,800 6,799 2019 854 5,543 9,966 2020 991 6,400 11,495 2021 977 6,393 11,419 2022 896 5,944 10,530 2023 923 6,083 10,728 2024 883 5,784 10,115 2025 893 5,795 10,080 2026 884 5,693 9,840 2027 887 5,629 9,666 2028 886 5,557 9,478 2029 887 5,496 9,311 2030 891 5,452 9,177

Source: Conference Board of Canada


31

Year

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total

Emplo

ymen

t4,4

23

4,880

5,9

09

5,354

5,0

94

6,337

6,7

99

9,966

11

,495

11

,419

10

,530

10

,728

10

,115

10

,080

9,8

40

9,666

9,4

78

9,311

9,1

77

Agric

ulture

& oth

er pri

mary

sector

39

33

28

15

3

15

12

36

34

22

11

20

12

17

21

27

33

38

46

Ma

nufac

turing

2,402

23

2

2,816

3,4

02

3,236

3,9

42

4,272

6,2

92

7,397

7,2

52

6,593

6,5

57

6,297

6,2

84

6,105

6,0

29

5,920

5,8

02

5,686

Co

nstru

ction

490

86

5

1,147

24

7

233

28

1

288

27

5

353

467

516

512

465

427

387

42

5

396

36

9

345

Uti

lities

26

23

23

19

17

26

27

46

50

45

37

41

36

39

38

39

39

40

40

Tra

nspo

rtatio

n & wa

rehou

sing

86

10

9

112

11

4

117

11

3

115

11

4

127

120

171

188

173

125

132

81

84

87

96

Wh

olesa

le & r

etail t

rade

348

52

6

480

39

4

356

54

0

581

1,0

85

1,171

1,0

68

928

1,027

95

8

94

6

95

2

895

89

8

914

93

4

Finan

ce, in

suran

ce & r

eal e

state

92

60

82

10

1

108

14

7

152

23

4

240

242

223

247

214

218

208

19

9

184

17

5

167

Ot

her c

omme

rcial

servic

e ind

ustri

es90

9

902

1,1

46

992

93

1

1,203

1,2

70

1,815

2,0

40

2,089

1,9

14

2,019

1,8

45

1,903

1,8

88

1,888

1,8

46

1,817

1,8

01

Publi

c adm

inistr

ation

& de

fence

31

60

75

70

93

70

82

68

84

11

4

13

7

11

6

11

4

12

1

99

86

77

70

63

Unem

ploym

ent

1,969

- 2,1

74-

2,634

- 2,3

80-

2,254

- 2,8

05-

2,999

- 4,4

23-

5,095

- 5,0

26-

4,586

- 4,6

44-

4,332

- 4,2

85-

4,146

- 4,0

37-

3,921

- 3,8

16-

3,725

-

Table

C2 - H

alifax

Shipy

ard Pr

oject -

Incre

menta

l Emplo

ymen

t

Sourc

e: Co

nferen

ce Bo

ard of

Cana

da

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