WNISR2018 PRÉAMBULE€¦ · PRÉAMBULE THE WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY STATUS REPORT 2018 A Mycle...
Transcript of WNISR2018 PRÉAMBULE€¦ · PRÉAMBULE THE WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY STATUS REPORT 2018 A Mycle...
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
PRÉAMBULE
THE WORLD NUCLEARINDUSTRYSTATUS REPORT 2018
A Mycle Schneider Consulting ProjectParis, London, September 2018
Au cas où vous vous interrogez sur la couv’...
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 20192
Mycle SchneiderConsultant international indépendant sur l’énergie et la politique nucléaire, Paris
Auteur principal et éditeur du WNISR
World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2018(WNISR2018) Update Janvier 2019
www.WorldNuclearReport.org
Grenoble, 19 Février 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — DÉMARRAGES ET ARRÊTS DE RÉACTEURS
5
10
15
20
25
30
20192015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the Worldin Units, from 1954 to 1 January 2019
YearlyBalance
Reactor Startups
Reactor Shutdowns
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
5
10
15
20
25
30
20182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601954
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the Worldin Units, from 1954 to 2018
Reactor Shutdowns
China Rest of the WorldReactor Startups
All Countries (No Chinese in Total)
VUE GLOBALE — DÉMARRAGES ET ARRÊTS… CHINE
4
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
UE28 — DÉMARRAGES ET ARRÊTS DE RÉACTEURS
5
15
182015201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601956
-10
-5
0
10© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28in Units, from 1956 to 2018
YearlyBalance
Reactor Startups
Reactor Shutdowns
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE – DONNÉES OFFICIELLES FALLACIEUSES 1
6
Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 18 February 2019
⬇
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE – DONNÉES OFFICIELLES FALLACIEUSES 2
7
Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 2 September 2018
⬇
Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 18 February 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
FOCUS JAPON
8
Sources: Various sources, compiled by WNISR, 2018
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7/18201520102005200019951990198519801975197019651963
Electricity Generation in TWh Nuclear Capacity in GW
Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program - 1963 to July 2018
Capacity
Generation
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE – Long-Term Outage (LTO)
9
WNISR Defini,on of LTO
“A nuclear power reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO),
if it has not generated any power in the enNre previous calendar year
and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR.”
-------------28 Reactors in LTO as of 1 January 2019
• 25 reactors in Japan, shut down between 2007 and 2012. Only 9 operaNng.
• 1 reactor in ArgenNna (Embalse)
• 1 reactor in China (CEFR)
• 1 reactors in India (Kakrapar-1)
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — RÉACTEURS/CAPACITÉ EN SERVICE
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
10
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
UE28 — RÉACTEURS ET CAPACITÉ EN SERVICE
11
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018
0
50
100
150
Operable capacity
1820152010200520001995199019851980197519701965196019560
50
100
150
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU 28 in Units and GWe, from 1956 to 2018
Reactors in Operation
Operating Capacity
Units GWe
12/2018118 GWe
126 Reactors
1989124.4 GWe
177 Reactors
2000Maximum Operating
Capacity: 136.8 GWe 1988
Maximum Number of Reactors: 177
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018
VUE GLOBALE — PRODUCTION ET RÔLE DU NUCLÉAIRE
12
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
5
10
15
17201520102005200019951990 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
17201520102005200019951990
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Nuclear Electricity Production 1990-2017In the World...in TWh (net) and Share in Electricity Generation (gross)
...and in China and the Rest of the World in TWh (net)
1996Maximum : 17.5%
TWh
Sharein %
2017Production: 2,503 TWh
Share:10.3%
2006Maximum:
2,660 TWh
TWh
2015-2017Since 2014, without China's contribution,
world nuclear production has declined.In 2017, it increased by 1% globally, but
fell by 0.4% outside ChinaNuclear Share
Nuclear ElectricityProduction
ChinaRest ofthe World
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
2014
800 600 400 200 0
Armenia
Netherlands
Argentina
Slovenia
Iran
Pakistan
Mexico
Romania
Slovakia
Brazil
Bulgaria
South Africa
Hungary
Switzerland
Taiwan
Finland
Czech Rep.
Japan
India
Belgium
Spain
Sweden
UK
Germany
Ukraine
Canada
South Korea
Russia
China
France
USA
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Iran
Brazil
Netherlands
India
Japan
China
Argentina
Mexico
Pakistan
South Africa
Taiwan
Germany
Canada
Romania
Russia
UK
USA
Spain
South Korea
Armenia
Czech Rep.
Finland
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Sweden
Belgium
Hungary
Slovakia
Ukraine
France
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
2005
2002
2003
1986
2014
1996
2005
1996
1986
2009
1987
2013
1989
1997
1995
2015
2009
1994
1988
1989
1989
1990
2017
1986
2001
1998
201520102005
1994
2001
1999
2004
2001
1999
1998
2007
2017
2015
2011
2017
Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production
TWh Percentage
20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998
Sources: IAEA-PRIS, BP, 2018
VUE GLOBALE – PRODUCTION ET RÔLE DU NUCLÉAIRE
13
(Top 21)
2014
800 600 400 200 0
Armenia
Netherlands
Argentina
Slovenia
Iran
Pakistan
Mexico
Romania
Slovakia
Brazil
Bulgaria
South Africa
Hungary
Switzerland
Taiwan
Finland
Czech Rep.
Japan
India
Belgium
Spain
Sweden
UK
Germany
Ukraine
Canada
South Korea
Russia
China
France
USA
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Iran
Brazil
Netherlands
India
Japan
China
Argentina
Mexico
Pakistan
South Africa
Taiwan
Germany
Canada
Romania
Russia
UK
USA
Spain
South Korea
Armenia
Czech Rep.
Finland
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Sweden
Belgium
Hungary
Slovakia
Ukraine
France
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
2005
2002
2003
1986
2014
1996
2005
1996
1986
2009
1987
2013
1989
1997
1995
2015
2009
1994
1988
1989
1989
1990
2017
1986
2001
1998
201520102005
1994
2001
1999
2004
2001
1999
1998
2007
2017
2015
2011
2017
Nuclear Production in 2016/2017 and Historic Maximumin TWh and Share In Electricity Production
TWh Percentage
20162017Historic MaximumHistoric Maximum Year1998
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — CONSTRUCTIONS
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2017
14
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — CONSTRUCTIONS
15
Nuclear Reactors “Under Construc2on” (as of 1 July 2018)
Sources: Compiled by WNISR, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1954 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 7/180
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Duration in YearsAverage Annual ConstructionTimes in the World from 1954 to 1 July 2018by Grid Connection Date
Number of Reactors
1 5 10 20 30
VUE GLOBALE – DURÉE DE CONSTRUCTION
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018
16
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — DURÉES DE CONSTRUCTION
17
Reactor Construc-on Times of 53 Units Started-up 2008–7/2018
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, WNA, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — DÉBUTS ET ABANDONS DE CONSTRUCTIONS
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
18
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — DÉBUTS DE CONSTRUCTIONS… CHINE
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELATIONS
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2019
20
VUE UE28 — DÉBUTS DE CONSTRUCTIONS
1
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
VUE GLOBALE — RÉPARTITION DES ÂGES
21
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
as of 1 July 2018
0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over
Reactor Age
50 Number of Reactors by Age Class
Age of World Nuclear Fleet
413 reactorsMean Age:29.9 years
54
35
70
177
77
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
UE28 — RÉPARTITION DES ÂGES
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
as of 1 July 2018
0–10 Years11–20 Years21–30 Years31–40 Years41 Years and Over
Reactor Age
50 Number of Reactors by Age Class
Age of EU Nuclear Fleet
125 reactorsMean Age:33.4 years
16
28
78
12
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
FRANCE — RÉPARTITION DES ÂGES
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
FOCUS FRANCE – ARRÊTS DE TRANCHE 1ER SEM. 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25Units GW
25/0618/0611/0604/0628/0521/0514/0507/0530/0423/0416/0409/0402/0426/0319/0312/0305/0326/0219/0212/0205/0229/0122/0115/0108/0101/01
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Unavailability of French Nuclear Reactors in 2018Maximum number of reactors offline for each week during the first half-yearin Units and Capacity
Reactors offline
Capacity
French Nuclear Fleet: 58 Reactors / 63.1 GW
22.6 GW20 Units
22.4 GW20 Units
19.7 GW18 Units
Sources: EDF, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
FOCUS FRANCE – ARRÊTS DE TRANCHE 1ER SEM. 2018
Paluel-2St Alban-2
Gravelines-6Cruas-2
Fessenheim-2Civaux-2
Flamanville-1Belleville-2
Bugey-4Chinon-4
Dampierre-2Tricastin-4
Cattenom-2Cattenom-3
Blayais-3Penly-2
Cattenom-1Cruas-4
Tricastin-1Paluel-1
Gravelines-4Blayais-2
Tricastin-2Golfech-2
Gravelines-2Gravelines-5St Laurent-1
St Alban-1Dampierre-4
Golfech-1Cattenom-4
Nogent-1Flamanville-2
Cruas-3Chooz-2
Gravelines-1St Laurent-2
Cruas-1Chinon-3Nogent-2
Dampierre-1Chooz-1Bugey-3
Blayais-4Paluel-4
Gravelines-3Belleville-1
Chinon-1Tricastin-3
Blayais-1Paluel-3
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Unavailability of French Nuclear Reactors in 2018Time offline during the first half-year
Days per Reactor
0 50 100 150 Days
The number of outage days of 51 reactorsof France's fleet totals 2,216 during thefirst half-year of 2018.What looks as essentially planned outagesare in reality frequently significantly extendedoutages into durations that were never planned(see Box on Paluel-2).
Reactors
PlannedForced
Sources: EDF, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
23 July 2018Paluel-2 Reconnected to the Grid
Total Unavailability: 1,164 Days
200 400 600 800 1 0002018201720162015
0
123456789
101112131415161718192021222324252627
Days
31 March 2016Steam Generator DroppedOn 02/04/16, UnavailabilityProlonged to 31/12/16
15 May 2015Expected Unavailability:16/05/15 - 21/01/16 (250 days)
Forecasting Paluel-2 Restart - A Moving TargetNumber of outage schedule-revisions since shutdown and number of outage days
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
26/71/8
5/1128/1
5/32/4
14/47/6
7/116/6
11/827/10
5/29/5
11/618/619/6
26/62/714/716/720/720/722/723/723/7
Revision Date of revision
Outage Timeto Date
ScheduledRemaining
Outage Time
FOCUS FRANCE – PLANIFICATION ERRATIQUE D’EDF
26
Sources: EDF 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
FOCUS ALLEMAGNE
27
0
30
60
90
120
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
NuclearReduction
-64
Fossil FuelReduction
-28
RenewablesIncrease
113
Main Evolution of the German Power System between 2010 and 2017in TWh
Nuclear and Fossil FuelGeneration Reductions
as well as Export Increase...
... are Covered by Consumption Decrease and
Renewable Production Increase
Net ExportIncrease
37
ConsumptionDecrease
-16
Sources WNISR, based on AGEB 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
FOCUS USA – 18 “FERMETURES PRÉMATURÉES” 2009-25
28
Sour
ces:
Vario
us so
urce
s com
pile
d by
WNI
SR
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
STATUS REPORT DÉMANTÈLEMENT
29
Sources: Various, complited by WNISR 2018
Overview of Decommissioning Status in Six Selected Countries
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
STATUS REPORT DÉMANTÈLEMENT
30
Sources: WNISR and IAEA-PRIS, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
PAYS “NEWCOMER” POTENTIELS
Sour
ces:
Vario
us, c
ompi
led
by W
NISR
, 201
8
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
INTERDÉPENDANCES CIVILES-MILITAIRES
32
Sources: Andy Stirling, Phil Johnstone, WNISR, with WNA, 2018
• Les puissances militaires mondiales sont les plus engagées dans les programmes de nouvelles construcOons.
• Il n’y a pas de puissance militaire mondiale ou régionale qui n’ait pas d’histoire nucléaire civile.
• Aucun pays qui a un moratoire ou une poliOque de sorOe du nucléaire ne déOent d’armes ou de sous-marins nucléaires ou n’a de plan pour l’une de ces opOons.
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
PERSISTANCE INTRIGANTE DE L’OPTION NUCLÉAIRE
• Les liens entre le nucléaire civil et militaire sont bien étudiés notamment dans la production de matières nucléaires spéciales (plutonium, uranium hautement enrichi, tritium).
• Mise en évidence récente : les interdépendances dans l’industrie des sous-marins nucléaires – considérés essentiels pour une « place à table » au Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU.
• Ces deux dernières années : de multiples rapports soulignant la nécessité du maintien du nucléaire civil dans l’intérêt de la sécurité nationale (incl. Moniz aux US; Roll Royce en GB; rapport pour Nicolas Hulot en France).
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
34
Sources: FS-UNEP/BNEF 2018 and WNISR Original Research
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power in US$ billion, 2004-2017
Other RenewablesSolarWindNuclear
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Asia (excl. China and India)IndiaChina
Middle East and AfricaEurope
Americas (exclu. US and Brazil)Brazil
US
20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004
NuclearRenewable
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Regional Breakdown of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Investments in US$ Billion, 2004-2017
NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
61
Sources: FS-UNEP,BNEF 2018 and WNISR Original Research
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
DÉVELOPPEMENT RENOUVELABLES – TOP TEN
35
Sources: FS-UNEP /BNEF, 2018, 2017, 2015
0
25
50
75
100
1252017
2016
2015
SwedenMexicoBrazil (*)UKAustraliaGermanyIndia (*)JapanUSA (*)China (*)© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Top 10 Countries for Renewable Energy Investment 2015-2017in US$ billion
(*) Updated data for 2015, 2016 and 2017 from FS-UNEP 2018 Report
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
36
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
WindUtility Scale Solar (²)Gas - Combined CycleCoalNuclear
2017 11.0
2016 10.0
2015 9.0
2014 8.0
2013 7.0
2012 6.0
2011 5.0
2010 4.0
2009 3.0
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Selected Historical Mean Costs by Technology LCOE values in US$/MWh (¹)
20%
-8%
-27%-86%-67%
Lazard LCOE VersionsSources: Lazard Estimates, 2017
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
0
201720142012201020082006200420022000
0
2017201420122010200820062004200220001998
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net
Wind
Solar Nuclear
Annual ProductionCompared to 1997
in TWh/year
167
-23
3
226
2535
221
285
334
399
497
450
252
66
22
100
178
137
302
399
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World
20
100
5 33
259327
442366
180294
289
397
241 239
512
51121
948
820
634
264
1 111
Nuclear(excl. LTO)
37
Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Statistical Review 2018
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
201720142012201020082006200420022000 2017201420122010200820062004200220001998
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacityin GWe
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Electricity Productionin TWh/year
363 374
327
370 361 385353
3057
221
417
515
468
103
22
66
101178
227
400
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the World
6 21
260101
328443
2 6302 553
2 661
2 5052 346
2 4442 503
133
276342
524646
959832
63
1 123
Nuclear (excl. LTO)
350
2 264
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
38
Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Statistical Review 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
39
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000Non-hydro renewablesHydroCoal
GasOilNuclear
201720152013201120092007
>3 000
>1 5001 470
980
-110 -200
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Power Generation in the WorldAnnual Production Compared to 2007 in added TWh by Source
Sources: BP Statistical Review 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
40
201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacityin GWe
Wind
Solar Nuclear
Production in TWh/year
2 8713 19
27
35
18
46
97
132
164
149
77
7
28
44
78
131
Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in China 2000-2017
4 16
44
24
62
108124
16
6650
161
198
233
28
70
96
141156
237
186
4
286
Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Statistical Review 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
41
0
201720142012201020082006200420022000
0
2017201420122010200820062004200220001998
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacity Added Since 2000in GWe net
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Annual ProductionCompared to 1997
in TWh/year
-16-6
94
-17
-19
21
51
93
127
155
140
35
22
66
8071
100106
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments: Installed Capacity and Electricity Production in the EU
37
126
9775
245231
296
355
-47
45
-42
79
-32
60
-91
71
423
1089786
46
120
Nuclear(excl. LTO)
Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Statistical Review 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Capacityin GWe Wind
Solar Nuclear
Production in TWh/year
3
2
4 5
6
2
6
10
13
20
25
33
29
16
1 35
9
19
Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity and Production in India 2000-2017
0.8 1.4
2.8 6.64.9
11.6
21.520
29
14
18
15
30
35
3
9
1419
24
43
27
33
53
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
42
Sources: WNISR, IAEA-PRIS, BP Statistical Review 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
DÉVELOPPEMENT NUCLÉAIRE VERSUS RENOUVELABLES
43
Sources: DOE-EIA, 2018
201720142012201020082006200420022000 201720142012201020082006200420022000
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Annual ProductionCompared to 2000
in net added TWh
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Annual Production2000-2017in net TWh
26
10
3543
53
15
51
12
68
29
89
115
162
176 185
249
221
135
1728
38
54
76
Wind, Solar and Nuclear Developments in the United States 2000-2017
1055
30
77
770
754
764
806788 807 805
18
95
34
141191
254
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
CONCLUSIONS
44
• Augmentation très modeste de la production nucléaire, surtout due à la Chine.• Déclin continu du rôle du nucléaire.• Différentiel de coût croissant entre le nucléaire et les renouvelables.• Neuf des 31 pays producteurs de courant nucléaire produisent plus d’électricité avec les renouvelables qu’avec le nucléaire. • Augmentation de capacité de production nucléaire insignifiante dans le contexte du marché mondial (1 GW net contre 257 GW au total en 2017).• Déclin des débuts de construction : 15 en 2010, 5 en 2018, aucun nouveau chantier de réacteur commercial en Chine depuis 2016.• Démantèlement à ses débuts. Seulement 10 des 173 réacteurs arrêtés démantelés entièrement (« green field »).• Motivations pour l’investissement continu toujours pas claires, les interdépendances civiles-militaires sont vues comme des stimulants possibles.• Nouveau nucléaire—et de plus en plus le nucléaire existant—est plus cher (€/MWh) que l’efficacité, le solaire et l’éolien et contribue donc à l’effet de serre.• Le nucléaire existant s’avère une barrière très puissante à toute innovation.
Mycle Schneider Consulting
Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports. He is the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC) and the Spokesperson for IEAC. He is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA. In 2010-2011, he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and renewable energies. Between 2004 and 2009 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France.
From 2000 to 2010 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry. 1998-2003 he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister’s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development. Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 14 countries and at the European Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 26 years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at 20 universities and engineering schools in 10 countries.Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs.In 1997 he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award (“Alternative Nobel Prize”).
ThankYou! Contact: [email protected] www.WorldNuclearReport.org
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
ANNEXES
46
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
AIEA : “RISQUES D’UN DÉCLIN”
New IAEA Energy Projections See Possible Shrinking Role for Nuclear Power
Nuclear power’s electricity generating capacity risks shrinking in the coming decades as ageing reactors are retired and the industrystruggles with reduced competitiveness, according to a new IAEA report.
AIEA,10 septembre2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
Sources: Various sources, compiled by WNISR, 2018
LIFETIME PROJECTIONS
47
206320602055205020452040203520302025202020180
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
-15
-10
-5
5
10
15
5
10
15
5
10
15
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
Number ofReactorsCapacity in GWe
YearlyBalance
Reactor Startups
Reactor ShutdownsCapacity Added Capacity Shut Down
Projection 2018-2063 of Nuclear Reactor Numbers/Capacity in the World General assumption of 40-year mean lifetime Operating and Under Construction in the World, as of 1 July 2018, in GWe and Units
2018-2020–12 Reactors
–2 GW
2041-2050–28 Reactors
–22 GW
2021-2030–190 reactors–168.5 GW
2031-2040–76 Reactors
–67.5 GW
2051-2063–97 reactors–92.5 GW
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
Sources: Various sources, compiled by WNISR, 2018
LIFETIME PROJECTIONS
48
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
© WNISR - Mycle Schneider Consulting
19801970 19851975 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 17
USA - 42
Total - 94
Ukraine - 6
Taïwan - 2
Spain - 4Sweden - 1
Russia - 12
Romania - 3
Poland - 2
Philippines - 1N. Korea - 1
Lithuania - 1
Japan - 1
Italy - 3
Iran - 1
Germany - 6
Czech Rep. - 2
Cuba - 2
Bulgaria - 2
Brazil - 1
Austria - 1
2 2 2 5 11 5 13 3 9 3 12 3 2 9 1 1 1 1 2 23 1
in Units by Cancellation Year and CountryAbandoned Reactor Constructions from 1970 to 1 July 2018
North America Latin America Europe Asia and Middle East
1
CONSTRUCTION STARTS AND CANCELLATIONS
53
Sources: WNISR, with IAEA, and various sources, 2018
WNISR2018
Mycle Schneider Consulting Grenoble le 19 Février 2019
© W
NIS
R -
Myc
le S
chn
eide
r C
onsu
ltin
g
Wind
PV
NaturalGas
OtherRenewables
Coal
FuelOil
Nuclear
15.6
6.0
2.6 2.3 1.7
-1.8 -0.6
-2.3
-7.5
-2.2
Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU in 2017 by Energy Source in GWe
NUCLEAR POWER VS. RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT
54
Sources: WindEurope, WNISR, 2018