Emanuele MassettiSchool of Public PolicyGeorgia Institute of TechnologyNovember 27 2018

William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

bull 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm)

Forecasts of Ending Prosperity

The limits to growth 1972

1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

bull 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm)

Forecasts of Ending Prosperity

The limits to growth 1972

1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

bull 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm)

Forecasts of Ending Prosperity

The limits to growth 1972

1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

bull 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm)

Forecasts of Ending Prosperity

The limits to growth 1972

1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

1970rsquos End of The Growth Miraclebull Economic growth slows down

bull Trade-offs between economic growth and the environment

bull 1972 publication of the ldquoLimits to Growthrdquo

bull 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm)

Forecasts of Ending Prosperity

The limits to growth 1972

1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

Forecasts of Ending Prosperity

The limits to growth 1972

1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

bull Not a single relationship or variable is from actual data or empirical studiesbull Simulation data not subjected to empirical validation are void of meaningbull Lack of true multidisciplinary efforts

1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth

If there is sufficient substitutability between producible and non-producible resources and if the price system is functioning adequately the inevitable collapse predicted by Forrester will be avoided

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Changebull 1974-1975 IIASA Energy

ProgramldquoMy own first serious research on global warming started when I spent a year in Vienna at IIASA []rdquo

ldquoResearch on global warming is deeply interdisciplinary and IIASA at that time was uniquely able to foster interdisciplinary work It was here that I published my first (and I believe the first) economic model of global warming as an IIASA working paper in 1975rdquo

httpwwwiiasaacatwebhomeaboutalumniNews181008-nordhaushtml

[]when he was a research scholar in Austria doing energy research and happened to share an office with a climatologist who told him This is where energy research is going to be going Nordhaus remembers I said Well OK tell me about it And thats how it started

Despite some scientific interest in climate change at the time the topic was zero on the intellectual Kelvin scale in economics Nordhaus says There was nothing at that pointldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

bull Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoOne persistent concern has been thatmans economic activities would reach a scale

where the global climate would be significantly affectedrdquo

ldquoIt appears that the uncontrolled path will lead to very large increases in temperature in the coming decades taking the climate outside of any temperature pattern

observed in the last 100000 yearsrdquo

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137

bull GHG emissions are an ldquoexternalityrdquobull The cost of increasing GHGs concentrations mostly falls on other individuals

bull Externalities are a market failurebull The polluter does not ldquoownrdquo the full consequences of releasing emissionsbull Free-lunchbull Excessive level of emissions

bull Carbon-dioxide emissions are the ldquoperfectrdquo externalitybull Global effectsbull Long-lasting effects

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Economic Externalitiesbull Demand function as a measure of

the gross benefit from consumption

bull 119875119875119864119864 private cos tbull 119876119876119864119864 market equilibrium

bull 119890119890 external damage of one unit of gas oline

bull P s ocial cos t

bull Triangle abc meas ures welfare los sbull A tax equal to e res tores efficiency

Price

Gasoline

D

Q 119876119876119864119864

b

a

c119875119875119864119864e

P=119875119875119864119864+e

bull Marginal costbenefit costbenefit of one additional unit of consumptioninvestment

bull Economic efficiency (optimality) is the fundamental principle in economic analysis

bull Marginal cost = marginal benefit

bull The cost of reducing carbon-dioxide emissions by one additional unit must be equal to the benefit not releasing that unit from the atmosphere

bull This is a very complex problem that requires knowingbull Costsbull Benefits (avoided damages)bull In a dynamic long-run global setting

Economic Efficiency

bull Economic efficiency selects the ldquooptimalrdquo (efficient) level of concentrations in the atmosphere

bull Cost-effectiveness is less ambitiousbull Choose a desired level of concentrationsbull Achieve this goal at the least cost

bull Economic efficiency implies cost -effectiveness but not vice versa

Cost-Effectiveness

A Simple Integrated Assessment Model

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull Pioneering modeling of interactions between economic growth and climate change

bull A carbon-circulation model to track carbon -dioxide concentrationbull A climate model that describes climate change as function of concentrationsbull An economic model in which output is produced using capital labor and

energy

bull Solving a model with three different integrated systems was a challenge

bull Use of computer simulations instead of analytical solutions

bull We call this framework Integrated Assessment Modelbull Main advantage consistent scenarios for economic energy and climate

systems

This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used

Stabilization

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

bull The first model in 1977 studies cost-effective solutions

bull No damage functions

bull Efficiency cannot be established

Nordhaus W D (1977) Economic growth and climate the carbon dioxide problem The American Economic Review 67(1) 341-346

ldquoSubject to the limitations of the techniques used here we can be relatively optimistic about the technical feasibility of a carbon dioxide control strategyrdquo

Optimism with Reservations

The two central questions that remain to be answered are

ldquoHow costly are the projected changes in (or the uncertainties about) the climate likely to be and therefore to what level of control should we aspire ldquo

ldquoHow can we reasonably hope to negotiate an international control strategy among the several nations with widely divergent interestsrdquo

bull 1975-1977 the Provisional Modelbull A detailed energy sector derived from previous workbull No feedback of the climate on the economybull Path of economic growth is givenbull Study of cost of reducing emissions

bull 1994 the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) modelbull Still used today and updated regularlybull Integrated in an optimal (efficient) growth frameworkbull Impacts of the climate system on the economybull Analysis of optimal (efficient) climate policy what emissions should be

The DICE Model

bull 1996 The Regional Integrated Climate Economy (RICE) modelbull Multi -regional modelbull Regions can choose to cooperate by considering damages to other regions

caused by own emissions (Cooperative solution)bull Regions can behave non-cooperatively by ignoring damages to other regions

(Nash equilibrium)

bull Opens the possibility to test with simulations the growing literature on non-cooperative game theory applied to climate change

bull The cooperative solution solves the climate problem bull Analysis of efficient distribution of mitigation effort

The RICE Model

Example of Ouput

Nordhaus (2018)

1 Natural res ources and environmental pollutions in the context of long-run economic growth

2 Climate change problem as an inter-generational inves tment and cons umption dilemma

3 Technological change as key driver of long-run growth

4 Economic efficiency as guiding principle

5 Central role of carbon prices

6 International cooperation for climate change

Six Important Take -Away Messages

ldquoHis calm approach has a t times infuria ted environmental activis ts who are dis mayed at the pace of global actionrdquo

What can I say about calm he replies when as ked about that

I like to think of the economics as a cool head in the service of a warm heart and thats my approach to thisldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment

Where we learn why keeping a cool head is important and where we develop intuitions on economic damages and discounting

ldquoA major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings

to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by centuryrsquos endrdquo

ldquoThe report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the United States economy of projected climate impacts $141 billion from heat-related deaths $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end

of the century among othersrdquo

A Case of False Perceptions

bull Nowhere in the Summary Findings nor anywhere else in the text one can find estimates of damages equal to 10 of GDP in 2100

bull NCA4 estimates economic losses equal to a fraction of a percentage point in 2100

bull 10 losses come from bad reporting and less than ideal writing of the report (more on this later)

bull Unfortunately extreme emissions scenario (RCP 85) is used as business as usual scenario without understanding the underlying implications

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

RCP 85 RCP 45Damages avoided

under RCP 45

Labor 15500$ 7440$ 48Extreme temperature mortality 14100$ 8178$ 58Coastal Property 11800$ 2596$ 22Air Quality 2600$ 806$ 31Roads 2000$ 1180$ 59Electricity Supply and Demand 900$ 567$ 63Inland Flooding 800$ 376$ 47Urban Drainage 600$ 156$ 26Rail 600$ 216$ 36Water Quality 500$ 175$ 35Coral Reef 400$ 048$ 12West Nile Virus 300$ 141$ 47Freshwater Fish 300$ 132$ 44Winter Recreation 200$ 021$ 11Bridges 100$ 048$ 48Munic And Industrial Water Supply 032$ 010$ 33Harmful Algal Blooms 020$ 009$ 45Alaska Infrastructure 017$ 009$ 53Shellfish 023$ 013$ 57Agriculture 001$ 000$ 11Aeroallergens 000$ 000$ 57Wildfire (011)$ 014$ -134Total 50783$ 22137$

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29 p 170

Sheet1

Sheet2

USA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8534043909869707861E-338038514202625843E-369671971569556694E-345497851530274204E-316359057302934971E-337529045096676796E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage2618954768450908723708089876421781229910571535489842466150258043088135708598130968293563287920328417332190398775689046

LA

Annual Damages pp in 2090 ( of GDP pp)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 8565638172495556552E-356881867378053572E-362803280770209521E-31351572744336758E-242769596580643507E-398117030163692477E-3

GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages( GDP pp in2020)

SSP 1SSP 2SSP 3SSP 4SSP 5SSP 5SSP 5RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 45RCP 85RCP 85 high damage4682041047050789840101403531018143231629896906817972050109244607409876589207356060136761634849517797169226364990794194

Sheet12

USA-data

USA-data-WITCH

LA-data

data

Sheet10

Sheet13

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 17860$ 65023$ 221$ 034 364 363RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 17904$ 58195$ 221$ 038 325 324RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 17236$ 31772$ 221$ 070 184 183RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 17972$ 48654$ 221$ 045 271 269RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 18193$ 135317$ 221$ 016 744 743RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 508$ 038 744 741RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 18193$ 135317$ 13532$ 1000 744 669

USA

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 53040$ 139384$ 475$ 034 263 262RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 53326$ 126908$ 483$ 038 238 237RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 52424$ 121374$ 846$ 070 232 230RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 53867$ 133451$ 607$ 045 248 247RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 53048$ 189739$ 310$ 016 358 357RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 712$ 038 358 356RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 53048$ 189739$ 18974$ 1000 358 322

Latin America

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

RCP SSPΔT (degC)

(baseline)ΔT (degC)

GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)

GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)

Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)

GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 9376$ 33725$ 221$ 066 360 357RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 9269$ 38917$ 221$ 057 420 417RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 9190$ 35247$ 221$ 063 384 381RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 8946$ 16378$ 221$ 135 183 181RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 9420$ 51758$ 221$ 043 549 547RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 508$ 098 549 544RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 9420$ 51758$ 5176$ 1000 549 495

RCP SSPGDP pp in 2020

(2015 $)GDP pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Damages pp in 2100

(2015 $)

Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)

GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)

GDP pp in 2100with damages

( GDP in 2020)

RCP 45 damages SSP 1 30 27 14797$ 69738$ 458$ 066 471 468RCP 45 damages SSP 2 38 26 14418$ 58150$ 331$ 057 403 401RCP 45 damages SSP 3 41 26 14030$ 32702$ 205$ 063 233 232RCP 45 damages SSP 4 38 25 13982$ 29058$ 393$ 135 208 205RCP 45 damages SSP 5 51 27 14936$ 114883$ 491$ 043 769 766RCP 85 damages SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 1127$ 098 769 762RCP 85 high damage SSP 5 51 51 14936$ 114883$ 11488$ 1000 769 692

In Which World Would You Prefer Living

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

USA - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

SSP 1 SSP 2 SSP 3 SSP 4 SSP 5 SSP 5 SSP 5

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 45damages

RCP 85damages

RCP 85 highdamage

Thou

sand

s

Latin America - GDP pp in 2090 counting for damages

Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100 RCP 45 scenarios include cost of damages but do not include cost of mitigation for simplicity

NCA4 Chapter 29 Figure 293

NCA4 Report in Brief Ch 29

What Happenedbull Figure from one study in the literature not assessed by the NCA4 teambull This study assumes

bull No adaptation at allbull Questionable assumptions on growth effectsbull Model misspecification identified using weather shocks instead of climate averages

bull In fact the 10 figure is not explicitly endorsed and contradicts NCA4 own assessment

bull The figure is used to provide an example of how mitigation can reduce uncertainty around impacts (in a way that is not quite correct)

bull ldquoLooking at the economy as a whole mitigation can substantially reduce damages while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts (Figure 293)rdquo

bull Les s than ideal report writing amplified by confirmation bias in reporting

1 Technical progres s trade and s ound ins titutions main drivers of economic progres s

2 Climate change impacts appear to be of s econd-order importance

3 Careful balance of benefits and cos ts of climate mitigation cons idering all ris ks and uncerta inties

Three Important Take -Away Messages

A question of balance

Actually from an economic point of view its a pretty simple problemldquo

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

Efficient Abatement

ldquoProjecting impacts is the most difficult and has the greatest uncertainties of all the processesassociated with global warmingrdquo

bull Key role of adaptation optimal adjustments to minimize (maximize) harmful (beneficial) effects of climate change

bull Most important driver of adaptation is rising income per capita

ldquoHuman societies increasingly devote resources to insulate their lives and property from environmentalconditions as their incomes riserdquo

All citations from Nordhaus (2014) ldquoThe Climate Casinordquo Yale University Press

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation potential

Extensively Managed Systems

Partially Managed Systems Unmanageable Systems

Most economic sectorsbull Manufacturingbull Health Care

Most human activitiesbull Sleepingbull Surfing the intenet

Vulnerable economic sectorsbull Agriculturebull Forestry

Nonmarket systemsbull Beaches and coastal

ecosystemsbull Wildfires

HurricanesSea-level riseWildlifeOcean acidification

Increasing challenges and potential failure for adaptation

bull A new literature finds large damages because it assumes there will be no adaptation

bull No effects of increased income on adaptation potential

bull Identification of random weather shocks not climate changebull In stark contrast with Nordhausrsquo work on climate damages

Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely

ldquoIn estimating impacts people often confuse weather and climaterdquo Nordahus (2014) The Climate Casino Yale University Press p 75

Nordahus (1977) Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No 443

bull One of the most controversial issues in climate change policy debate

bull $100 invested today at a real interest rate equal to 45 by 2218 grows tohellip

$ 665669bull How much are you willing to give up today to receive $ 665669 in

2218$ 10

Discounting

bull As individuals we discount future monetary benefitsbull Two reasons

bull We are impatientbull Pure rate of time preference (d)

bull If we think our income will grow $1 in the future counts les s than $1 todaybull How much we dis count depends on how advers e we are to inter-temporal income

inequality (e) and on the expected growth ra te of the economy (g)

bull The dis count ra te 119903119903 is s et by the following formula119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

Discounting

bull Mitigation costs are upfrontbull Benefits of emission reductions come late in the century

bull Strong inertia of the climate systembull Increased warming

bull Discounting reduces the relative importance of benefits and suggests a moderate approach to emission reductions

bull The faster is economic growth the larger the emissions the larger the climate damages the larger the discount ratehellip

The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy

Extreme Inertia of the Climate System

IPCC AR5 Figure SPM8 Panel dIPCC AR5 Figure SPM7 Panel a

The Stern Reviewbull Very large damages at the end

of the century

bull Very low discount rate (r)

bull Large emis s ion reductions are optimal s tarting from now

119903119903 = 119889119889 + 119892119892 times 119890119890

bull Observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892 are equal to about 4 ndash 45 and 3 at global level

bull 119890119890 can be estimatedbull 119889119889 is determined as a residual approximately 15

bull In the Stern Review 119889119889 is chosen to be equal to 01 and 119890119890 is not adjusted to give observed values for 119903119903 and 119892119892

bull The Stern Review uses inconsistent assumptions

Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change

bull No discounting leads to a paradoxbull Future generations have infinite importancebull We would be crushed under the burden of an infinite number of descendants

bull Even if we treat all generations equal growing incomes for future generations are a good reason for discounting

bull Real problem is if income declinesbull However a declining global economy fixes the climate problem without need for

policy

bull The theoretical framework can accommodate many different assumptions what matters is consistency

Discounting Ethical Considerations

PolicyWe need to put a price on carbon so that when anyone anywhere anytime does something that puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere theres a price tag on that he says

His colleagues say that inspiration mdashnow taken for granted mdashmakes Nordhaus a prime candidate for a Nobel Prize

httpswwwnprorg20140211271537401economist-says-best-climate-fix-a-tough-sell-but-worth-it

The Social Cost of Carbon

Regional Costs of Carbonbull Strong incentives to adopt a

patchwork of policies

bull Domestic damages a fraction of global damages

bull US SCC uses global damagesbull Unclear legal frameworkbull Can be challenged in courts

Catastrophic Thresholdsbull Optimal policy

bull SCC calculated assuming optimal mitigation

bull No policybull SCC calculated assuming

business as usualbull Contradiction SSC is in fact used

for mitigation

bull Threshold effects not dramatic if one considers the optimal policy SCC

bull A tale of two externalitiesbull A negative one GHG emissionsbull A positive one knowledge diffusion

bull A global carbon tax uniform across all sectors and countries is the efficient policy tool to fix the environmental externality

bull The carbon tax should not be substituted with an innovation subsidy

bull Subsidies to innovation are needed to fix the knowledge externalitybull However as all sectors suffer from this problem this should be part of

industrialRampD policies not climate change policy per se

Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies

Conclusions

My personal final thoughtshellip

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

William D Nordhaus

for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis

Ill Niklas Elmehed copy Nobel Media

Paul M Romer

for integrating technological innovations into long-run macroeconomic analysis

MLA style The Prize in Economic Sciences 2018 NobelPrizeorg Nobel Media AB 2018 Mon 26 Nov 2018

bull Paul Romer has introduced endogenous technical change in growth models

bull Innovation new ideas are at the core of economic growthbull Innovation is the engine of growth and will determine the fate of future

generations

bull Climate change is going to catastrophic effects only if it will stop the engine of innovation

bull Widespread geo-political disruptionsbull Collapse of institutions that have supported economic progressbull A return to the Middle Ages as after the end of the Roman Empire

The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth

At some point you move from calm to concerned he says Im not at panic

but there are some pretty deep concerns about whats going on mdash particularly at the slow pace of the steps that countries are taking

to deal with climate changeldquo

https wwwnprorg 2014 02 11 271537401 economis t-s ays -bes t-climate-fix-a-tough-s ell-but-worth-it

emanuelemassettigatecheduThank you

• William Nordhausrsquo 2018 Nobel Prize in EconomicsIntegrating Climate Change into Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• 1970rsquos End of The Growth Miracle
• Forecasts of Ending Prosperity
• 1972-1974 Natural Resources and Long-Term Economic Growth
• 1973 Sharp Critique of the Limits to Growth
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• 1975 Economic Growth Meets Climate Change
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• The Carbon Dioxide Problem
• Economic Externalities
• Economic Efficiency
• Cost-Effectiveness
• A Simple Integrated Assessment Model
• This Changed the Way in Which Models are Used
• Stabilization
• Slide Number 19
• Optimism with Reservations
• The DICE Model
• The RICE Model
• Example of Ouput
• Six Important Take-Away Messages
• A Cool Head in the Service of a Warm Heart
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• A Case of False Perceptions
• Slide Number 29
• Slide Number 30
• USA
• Latin America
• In Which World Would You Prefer Living
• Slide Number 34
• What Happened
• Three Important Take-Away Messages
• Slide Number 37
• Efficient Abatement
• Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• Adaptation potential
• Why Losses up to 10 of the US Economy are Unlikely
• Discounting
• Discounting
• The Effect of Discounting on Climate Change Policy
• Extreme Inertia of the Climate System
• The Stern Review
• Nordhaus and the Sternrsquos Review of Climate Change
• Discounting Ethical Considerations
• Slide Number 49
• The Social Cost of Carbon
• Regional Costs of Carbon
• Catastrophic Thresholds
• Why a Carbon Tax and Not Subsidies
• Slide Number 54
• The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2018
• The Long-Run Effect of Climate Change on Growth
• Slide Number 57
• Thank you
• Discounting and Greenland Melting
• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1233		1486		173		195		2126		2258		2373		2458		2519

R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3604628		65745524		102371581		137480975		166674622		190204504		206706472		217323222		222048637
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35945205		58984526		81302982		103558389		125074591		147165996		169164388		190918354		212705514
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		35927702		54784872		67096992		76075045		82717721		89370103		96205704		103242024		11119915
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3570474		58053348		78455387		95651664		108662997		118483384		124720614		128565984		131008689
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11991359		18086203		3636331		72321873		121677631		171847641		218530222		26234224		300818828		334812895		363259663
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33654987		61320521		95341583		128262564		155988045		17874593		194597728		204541199		208947472
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33498114		54452939		75077409		95709609		116011442		137253424		157970139		17746993		196717235
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33492901		50344413		613146		69261803		75047545		81026581		86782532		91786282		98042933
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33412989		54185829		7292152		8880678		101244251		110983749		117442109		121536178		12372587
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33699018		63064456		104430806		145784533		182334611		21397759		238342599		255537122		27941963
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33794001		65730096		10979697		155219688		198024513		238139606		272742333		302214033		327739741
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		3387672		66771019		112282025		158928235		202673921		243756592		2798636		312054378		338102978
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		11240759		16925256		33873656		67136662		113226581		160464406		20471011		246497445		283093588		315241581		341872352
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8432697		12188832		17270085		22838099		28312167		33213262		37264892		40356046		42220437
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8505645		11694895		15205641		19164199		23585221		28399502		33579753		39041147		4477846
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8601791		11376482		13693784		15894361		18119786		20472851		23002234		25600006		28384309
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8431843		11377274		14487364		17600329		20778471		23839544		26698565		29365842		31922239
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4806589		5834355		8422957		12826044		19632068		27492448		35809732		44049976		51894167		59252605		65673133
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8009924		11479699		16123894		21154884		26040597		30456825		33913856		36408961		38082056
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8074261		10943178		14076268		17560821		21398665		25516543		29726621		34124677		38326956
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8163403		10699506		1280348		14808566		16659626		18542564		2060046		22512503		24529737
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		80055		10744625		13597914		16412004		19288618		22021223		2445564		26592971		28380151
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8011422		11690489		17485373		23573321		30207085		36980353		44822631		51655075		56484946
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		7998249		11937		18024642		24955095		32106176		38825437		45249894		51433103		56652766
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8004829		12027522		1820116		25268883		32799072		40215537		47588549		54252216		60552558
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4692556		5606778		8023368		12103439		1836751		25558349		33130769		40603197		47707455		54333997		60058554
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338265		8439864		14008705		23219774		36530051		54754792		77800013		103785693		131235499		157911128
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		8519829		13420345		20070996		29235147		42121866		59963545		83277091		112474569		147428895
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338229		850674		1283939		17699773		22927465		289566		36553672		46023677		57397784		7071738
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338272		851065		13118625		18621883		2446839		30857832		38179946		46457724		55832394		66439294
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		4227022		5338317		8553379		15374322		28319089		4782332		75411296		112087242		156553287		207998999		264023426
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6845954		11313819		18701998		29566721		44646066		6412169		86868898		111007333		13454348
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6922898		10721589		15909572		23007002		33233341		47984817		67774404		92655679		1224005
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6881027		10307069		14138931		18223792		22917721		28974381		36844776		45917529		56022791
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		6934812		10765858		15308234		19969849		25054779		30861971		37745962		45806155		54957606
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7051926		12050945		22118961		37162229		58716095		86743641		12010802		160216216		203508804
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7005296		12458003		22899035		38562545		61010359		91499632		128877523		171906362		219547897
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7006858		12600828		23138241		39089398		62092221		93318938		131892684		177429019		227838539
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3349468		4251611		7056202		12732927		23488305		39812812		63179874		94649676		133237702		178296752		227696461
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43210867		53825679		65720931		77095254		8820776		99684825		110293972		119998165		128845611
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42965126		51697388		60221529		68760878		77774706		87621345		97310158		106870773		116359057
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		42120154		48157196		52231825		54823791		56386012		57370376		57159051		56378353		55389016
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		427863		52627683		62993802		72307407		8119393		90011171		97492328		104080777		109937722
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33168589		34694026		43961769		58444727		77733355		9999088		126701382		159818657		199079203		244479816		297055104
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43796523		54716423		66582038		77809894		88716484		99880495		110130686		119317458		127692544
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43549437		52385681		6090286		69213506		77759823		86835104		95429267		103499939		111551084
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		42634593		48757116		5279062		55098103		56184771		56555787		55399325		53428748		51271195
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		43351163		53568729		64117471		73485241		82340538		91033347		98114276		104152163		109629301
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44524915		58272326		76454936		97331749		122302721		153625779		191547396		233777139		278661288
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44571556		59070566		78240451		100211627		126411784		158547497		196943765		241430363		291808382
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44577173		59309323		78824514		101242629		127977833		161133695		200384277		245517759		297912865
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		33447573		35084337		44593089		59351119		78746698		101096491		127950481		161336286		201065534		24699144		300212785
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		428051		6413965		8875322		10602964		11895179		1304726		13549386		13803824		13878685
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4270468		600274		7677745		8984418		10331606		1191256		1330759		14642466		15973895
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4256867		5722059		6926806		7550697		8087909		899683		9980406		10970194		12023934
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4236323		599501		7869929		9173948		10288357		11412299		12117278		1260191		12916988
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		2343059		2854636		4312129		7063438		10752673		13750372		16385308		19086123		21136705		23022379		24743439
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5587201		8267917		11376487		13632005		1530977		16655582		17462944		17768973		17785676
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5610102		7715549		980588		11526458		13221169		15038627		16506182		17660106		19033703
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5631077		7440687		88704		9648683		10222076		11042689		11927139		12611781		13460178
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		556038		7755238		10030978		11596653		12891285		1420801		15128253		15617677		15873925
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119221		3748132		5643355		8199498		11745737		14342322		16226019		17350529		17439369		16916531		19291549
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5649		8780		12967		16538		19741		23048		25971		28747		30870
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5654		8960		13326		17129		20647		24107		26950		29287		31334
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		3119		3748		5677		9066		13598		17584		21240		24914		27882		30590		33059
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			3657		3939		4107		4168		4120		3974		3752		3471		3146		2796
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			3657		3992		4249		4412		4478		4447		4338		4176		3976		3763
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			3657118		4040365		4401393		469127		4936631		5128263		5282001		5429536		5584336		5750003
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			3657118		3969432		4181312		4284616		4286939		418914		4013869		3792002		3548864		3310283
R52ASIA		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			3657118		3935871		4096622		4150685		4095737		3943777		371666		3434264		3110616		2763996
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			3657007		3939383		4106989		416808		4120042		397432		3751486		3470705		3145825		2795457
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			3657007		3991999		4248935		4411547		4478076		4447021		4338403		4176272		3975894		3762807
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			3657007		4040245		4401258		4691122		4936473		5128093		5281822		5429349		558414		5749797
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			3657007		3969316		4181191		4284494		4286817		4189019		4013749		3791881		3548739		3310152
R52ASIA		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			3657007		3935764		4096527		4150604		4095673		3943727		3716622		3434234		3110592		2763976
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3914508		4081958		4143567		4096584		3952394		3731339		345244		3129593		2781358
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3966895		4223343		4386199		4453423		4423491		4316245		4155612		3956882		3745411
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		3447843		3632929		4015063		4375274		4665118		4910785		5102857		5257184		5405221		5560369		5726244
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		3447843		3632929		3944526		4156396		4260472		4264193		4168255		3995077		3775429		3534575		3298137
R52ASIA		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		3447843		3632929		391088		407147		4126036		4072134		3921694		3696351		3415835		3094227		2749751
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		3425377		3607607		3888281		4054856		4115908		4068569		3924615		3705985		3429516		3108573		2761986
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		3425377		3607599		3940946		4197052		4360073		4428035		4399568		4295996		4138476		3942095		3732192
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		3425377		3607648		3989249		4349482		4640065		4887659		5082905		524243		5395241		5554682		5724032
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		3425377		3607617		391868		4130522		42351		4239882		4145873		3976761		3760578		3522407		3287856
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52ASIA		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		3425377		3607555		3884727		4044623		4098687		4043922		3892609		3668572		3389089		3067613		2722744
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			585498		635158		665696		679091		675173		656177		626571		588621		541383		484805
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			585498		644418		692076		724915		742425		744458		735763		718985		696277		670957
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			585498		656624		730463		795681		854277		904629		949199		991717		1034749		108044
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			585498		641327		68093		702484		706217		693918		670312		638825		602764		565294
R52LAM		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			585498		632205		656183		662686		652077		62698		593055		552988		505903		451684
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			584946		634535		665025		678389		674459		655465		625875		587954		540762		484247
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			584946		643783		691374		72416		741632		743638		734928		718151		695456		670158
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			584946		655987		729744		794891		853418		903698		9482		990651		1033618		1079245
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			584946		640693		680223		701716		705399		693053		669409		63789		601805		564317
R52LAM		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			584946		631581		655508		661979		651356		626261		592353		552317		505281		451127
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		551382		584363		633933		664413		677771		67385		654875		625306		587415		540258		483792
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		551382		584363		64318		690752		723528		740992		742999		73429		717507		694805		669507
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		551382		584363		655382		729108		794229		852734		90298		947433		98982		1032712		1078262
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		551382		584363		640094		679617		70111		704804		692479		668855		637358		601293		563835
R52LAM		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		551382		584363		630979		654894		661366		65075		625674		591793		551793		504802		450701
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		547752		588219		637677		667959		681063		676845		657552		627673		589468		542012		485253
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		547752		588219		646948		694365		726921		744117		745835		736856		719838		696937		671468
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		547752		588219		659259		733028		798124		856569		906737		951125		993479		1036369		1081953
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		547752		588219		643842		683161		704379		707753		69509		671149		639362		603041		565352
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		547752		588219		634653		658238		664339		653326		627853		593612		55328		506006		451661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1236928		1495816		1732218		1941444		2103629		2212372		2272426		2282524		2246459		2169876
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1236928		1528712		1828247		2121338		2390465		2614227		2792625		2924044		3009171		3053661
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1236928		1558226		1932255		2334104		2758073		3173604		3565845		3940216		4291641		4614374
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1236928		1550503		1905537		2279562		2664562		3032346		3370214		3682413		3965229		4216239
R52MAF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1236928		1495037		1727703		1931144		2085466		2184894		2236945		2241965		2204461		2130369
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1236723		1495559		1731913		1941094		2103244		2211963		2272003		2282097		224604		2169476
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1236723		152845		1827924		2120951		2390022		2613735		2792092		2923481		3008585		3053063
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1236723		1557959		1931912		2333676		2757559		3173005		3565161		393945		4290795		4613452
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1236723		1550236		1905193		2279132		2664047		3031745		3369529		3681646		3964384		421532
R52MAF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1236723		149478		1727398		1930794		2085081		2184485		2236522		2241538		2204041		2129969
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		10996		1235882		149483		1731549		1942657		2108064		2220583		2284445		2297938		2264684		2190655
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		10996		1235882		1528472		1829211		2124694		2398462		2627732		281199		2948993		3038862		3087567
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		10996		1235882		1558967		1935319		2341474		2773338		3198771		3602876		3990159		4354039		4690362
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		10996		1235882		1551456		190899		2287954		2681935		3061488		3413914		3742382		4041818		431174
R52MAF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		10996		1235882		1494124		1726853		1931922		2089236		2192344		2248163		2256566		2221891		2150397
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1440302		1673269		188181		2045901		2158538		2224024		2240546		2211295		2141847
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		147386		1770825		2063648		2335628		25639		2748169		2886313		2978064		3029284
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		150515		1878536		2282304		2711991		3135438		3537663		3923136		428511		4619555
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1497512		1852745		2231111		2625927		3007296		3362611		3694914		3998697		4273267
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52MAF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1053865		1185914		1439186		1667308		1868946		2024107		2126668		2183761		2195149		216467		2098103
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		108027		1112816		1170812		1221811		1265611		1300793		1326057		1336259		1328746		1298543		1249539
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		108027		1112816		1168272		1214964		1251277		1278596		129859		130807		1304502		1294628		1271887
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		108027		1112816		1150695		1157022		1143355		1114097		1072847		1023985		97217		918872		864458
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		108027		1112816		1159505		119234		1207352		1207425		1193164		1164225		1121433		1064313		999853
R52OECD		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		108027		1112816		1186803		1274906		1365219		1461241		1561975		1654081		1733015		1792534		183223
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1172902		1224176		1268055		1303407		1328893		1339128		1331304		1300972		1252152
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1168944		1213106		1246415		1270493		1287739		1294998		1291945		1278645		1254705
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1148288		1146754		1124433		1085088		1033218		974186		911927		847984		783102
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1161578		1188797		1200299		1195732		1177828		1146089		1101256		1044286		977118
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52OECD		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		1078216		1115751		1189716		1279771		1371869		1469842		1572674		1666547		1746681		180748		1848673
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA-WiC POP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		NCAR - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		NCAR - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		NCAR - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		NCAR - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		NCAR - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP1		Population		million		277852		278932		279383		27541		270167		262159		2509		237079		220243		201508		182278
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP2		Population		million		277852		278932		28141		280774		279327		277279		273316		267548		259979		251078		241573
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP3		Population		million		277852		278932		2831		284819		285857		289034		29267		297235		304139		312217		320287
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP4		Population		million		277852		278932		279045		274178		267118		257406		245038		230197		213184		195327		177406
R52REF		OECD Env-Growth - SSP5		Population		million		277852		278932		279371		276335		272513		26561		25537		242151		225253		20607		186141
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-45		Population		million		369882		371196		37862		379044		376178		368056		354318		336108		3132		287162		259638
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Population		million		369882		371196		381922		388072		39151		392329		389131		382317		372088		359558		346048
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-45		Population		million		369882		371196		385324		396987		406552		417834		429067		440674		455178		471626		488504
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-45		Population		million		369882		371196		379373		380266		376408		367301		353019		33401		311189		286707		261821
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-34		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-45		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-60		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197
R52REF		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		Population		million		369882		371196		378581		37998		378684		371899		3594		341919		318995		292489		264197

R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42435773		71710642		95268134		113949165		12831403		138081602		145018794		148885386		148277118		207		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			3552221		3824018		3983406		4039278		3989456		3844983		3625402		3349539		3031105		2688315
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41816092		68459967		89250208		10503012		118703707		13049634		140326987		148834701		156479181		229		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			3552221		3874631		4118917		4270331		4327794		4289746		4175973		4010215		3807699		3594048
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		41306044		63983678		7986611		89728975		956956		100010712		104273128		10921917		115469091		180		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			3552221		392075		4263785		4535996		4762864		4935479		5070678		5199666		5336255		5485513
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		40643076		60401336		71572862		75886881		75828838		73699884		70659769		67271554		64067622		106		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			3552221		385172		4049882		4140192		4129704		401985		3833234		3600165		3346476		3098792
R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			17887275		42797877		75094232		105582211		134371813		161389641		187905446		212898442		234070642		249123465		332		R52ASIA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			3552221		3820945		3974794		4025153		3970183		3821362		3599076		3322636		3005826		2666518
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		789069		10832294		14167386		17728745		20729615		23193418		25431733		2729915		28382673		262		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7800882		10472261		13306322		16764518		20331035		23489927		26558818		29647701		32751857		313		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7734567		10093639		1250959		15125354		17867025		20522854		23273754		26248297		29663845		294		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7528771		9205111		10518339		11747019		12781922		13383782		13673661		13771099		13783844		150		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			5389115		7927554		1116679		15219827		19893451		24535793		29384254		34550792		39529262		43558671		390		R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7057456		11141629		16931006		24159438		32480198		4140371		50589882		59488923		67524281		606		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1203486		1451811		1679939		1882238		2039389		2145117		2204099		2215024		2181287		2108354
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6900299		10387325		15250288		21294808		2833998		36265499		45099974		54929129		65481321		630		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1203486		1483808		1773243		2057147		2318352		2535941		2710211		28395		2923995		296929
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6736476		9288049		12311627		156563		19162867		22843334		26677718		30792793		35321468		380		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1203486		1513423		1876229		2267083		2680176		3085656		346907		38354		4179637		4496542
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		6617775		9006137		12020901		15623573		19702673		24123163		29010987		34547866		40853145		454		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1203486		1505219		1848661		2211677		2586293		2945067		3275823		3582471		3861043		4109203
R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			4343618		7143953		11832027		19255039		29489955		4254033		58240959		76204019		96817218		120611076		1019		R52MAF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1203486		1450314		1673746		1869415		2018122		2114139		216492		2170831		2135897		2065866
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42001186		53866725		66777877		79756317		93017318		106424264		119522595		131933255		14320435		266		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			1110847		1168644		1219494		1263177		1298306		1323565		1333802		1326366		129629		1247453
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		41976377		53022888		6436675		75330184		86238376		97442677		108507805		119350483		12980375		245		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			1110847		1166076		1212567		1248698		127588		1295772		1305175		1303763		1291641		1268893
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		38394627		42562597		46589207		50219608		53373252		56219732		58646262		60565151		62075003		146		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			1110847		1148477		1154534		1140595		1111069		1069541		1020383		968244		914605		85983
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42039576		52419949		61946691		70441665		78280162		85592483		91944371		97063887		100889415		192		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			1110847		1159425		1189945		1205209		1204711		119034		1161309		1118443		1062881		996767
R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			34491016		42708013		57865633		77519438		100812559		128437342		161048549		198126382		239507723		285269924		493		R52OECD		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			1110847		1184636		1272595		1362801		1458772		1559507		1651655		1730677		1790331		1830201
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4934046		6903555		806563		8683524		9334621		10155339		10958426		1163614		12178292		176		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			278933		279383		275409		270167		262159		250901		237081		220244		201507		182279
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4970751		6831307		8003802		8842083		9691796		10707472		1178314		12871603		14026054		205		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			278933		281411		280774		279328		277278		273314		267547		25998		251078		241573
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4952233		6706144		7778524		8612847		9490652		10589526		11976309		13653327		15629631		233		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			278933		283102		284818		285858		289034		29267		297235		304137		312216		320286
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		4879401		6310894		6866536		7056888		7139413		724052		7341927		7427268		749914		119		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			278933		279045		274178		267118		257407		24504		230197		213184		195327		177405
R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			2904979		49811		7229577		8892638		10240554		11887538		13912984		16025643		18029388		19847257		275		R52REF		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			278933		279373		276334		272512		265609		25537		242151		225253		206071		186141

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78907		108323		141674		177287		207296		231934		254317		272992		283827			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			584079		633637		664111		677472		673556		654592		625042		587172		54004		483597			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		78009		104723		133063		167645		203310		234899		265588		296477		327519			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			584079		642879		690439		723207		740675		742688		733987		717217		69453		669244			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		77346		100936		125096		151254		178670		205229		232738		262483		296638			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			584079		655074		728777		793878		852365		902598		94704		989418		1032299		1077832			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		75288		92051		105183		117470		127819		133838		136737		137711		137838			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			584079		639795		67931		700805		704508		692196		668592		637115		601075		563638			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			53891		79276		111668		152198		198935		245358		293843		345508		395293		435587			R52LAM		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			584079		630685		654604		661078		650473		625414		591552		551574		504604		450525			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP1-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80320		115132		161882		212801		262482		306626		342974		370467		386710
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80979		110536		142813		179016		219210		262822		309717		359127		411034
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP3-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		81813		107572		128952		149075		169193		190283		212807		235758		260187
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP4-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80201		107540		136335		164976		193964		221604		247051		270350		292180
R52LAM		WITCH-GLOBIOM - SSP5-Baseline		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr		46926		56068		80234		121034		183675		255583		331308		406032		477075		543340		600586

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

				2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100							2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100						2005		2010		2020		2030		2040		2050		2060		2070		2080		2090		2100
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150305		187647		230075		275830		325141		379089		437108		494632		547231			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP1		Population		million			310384		336722		363686		388801		411058		431955		450962		465256		470602		466507			IIASA GDP - SSP1		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		150680		186080		223989		263529		305623		351088		398080		444492		489763			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP2		Population		million			310384		335751		361029		383233		402305		42093		437638		449545		456212		45856			IIASA GDP - SSP2		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		145053		166387		185525		202994		219525		235566		249480		259960		267394			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP3		Population		million			310384		328774		337347		338918		334232		326108		315313		300574		282232		261774			IIASA GDP - SSP3		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		151249		185626		219251		252612		286996		322240		355685		384941		409467			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP4		Population		million			310384		333634		353765		369196		379154		38615		389653		387129		378219		364584			IIASA GDP - SSP4		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF
USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDP|PPP		billion US$2005yr			126323		153108		203201		271493		357366		463523		595040		753206		935207		1138811			USA		IIASA GDP - SSP5		Population		million			310384		342944		384823		428702		475715		527773		581139		63246		677321		713172			IIASA GDP - SSP5		GDPCapita		thousands			ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF		ERRORREF

World		AIMCGE - SSP3-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		123		1522		1841		2063		2237		2362		2466		2554		2617
World		AIMCGE - SSP3-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0988		1226		1524		1864		2203		2551		2912		3284		3672		4071
World		GCAM4 - SSP4-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1237		1533		1874		2216		2546		2875		3201		3494		3758
World		IMAGE - SSP1-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1236		1509		1739		1944		2145		2336		2488		2596		2659
World		IMAGE - SSP1-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1238		1521		1783		2029		2253		247		268		2867		3026
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1243		1486		1742		1965		2152		2317		246		257		2634
World		MESSAGE-GLOBIOM - SSP2-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1241		1482		1759		2049		2351		2675		3015		338		3756
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-45		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1259		1555		1857		2109		2292		2438		2556		2638		2683
World		REMIND-MAGPIE - SSP5-Baseline		Diagnostics|MAGICC6|Temperature|Global Mean		degC		0913		0989		1266		1603		2013		248		2976		3504		405		4576		5052

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 9376		$ 33725		$ 221		066		360		357			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 9269		$ 38917		$ 221		057		420		417
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 9190		$ 35247		$ 221		063		384		381
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 8946		$ 16378		$ 221		135		183		181
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 221		043		549		547
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 508		098		549		544
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 9420		$ 51758		$ 5176		1000		549		495
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 14797		$ 69738		$ 458		066		471		468
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 14418		$ 58150		$ 331		057		403		401
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 14030		$ 32702		$ 205		063		233		232
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 13982		$ 29058		$ 393		135		208		205
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 491		043		769		766
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 1127		098		769		762
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 14936		$ 114883		$ 11488		1000		769		692
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

RCP		SSP		ΔT (degC)(baseline)		ΔT (degC)		GDP in 2020(Billion 2015 $)		GDP in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Damages in 2100(Billion 2015 $)		Annual Damages( GDP in 2100)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 17860		$ 65023		$ 221		034		364		363			119
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 17904		$ 58195		$ 221		038		325		324
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 17236		$ 31772		$ 221		070		184		183
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 17972		$ 48654		$ 221		045		271		269
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 221		016		744		743
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 508		038		744		741
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 18193		$ 135317		$ 13532		1000		744		669
RCP		SSP				GDP pp in 2020(2015 $)		GDP pp in 2100(2015 $)		Damages pp in 2100(2015 $)		Annual Dam pp( GDP in 2100)		GDP pp in 2100( GDP in 2020)		GDP pp in 2100with damages( GDP in 2020)
RCP 45		SSP 1		30		27		$ 53040		$ 139384		$ 475		034		263		262
RCP 45		SSP 2		38		26		$ 53326		$ 126908		$ 483		038		238		237
RCP 45		SSP 3		41		26		$ 52424		$ 121374		$ 846		070		232		230
RCP 45		SSP 4		38		25		$ 53867		$ 133451		$ 607		045		248		247
RCP 45		SSP 5		51		27		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 310		016		358		357
RCP 85		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 712		038		358		356
RCP 85 high damage		SSP 5		51		51		$ 53048		$ 189739		$ 18974		1000		358		322
1 Damages from FNCA (2018 Fig 292) High damage scenario from FNCA (2018 Fig 293) SSP scenarios from IIASA database IIASA GDP series Riahi et al (2017) shows that only the SSP 5 baseline scenarios of three models (AIMCGE REMIND-MAGPIE and WITCH-GLOBIOM) can reach the 85 Wm2 radiative forcing level by 2100

	GDP in 2100(B)		Annual Damages (B)		Annual Damages ( GDP in 2090)		GDP in 2100( GDP in 2017)		GDP in 2100 with damages( GDP in 2017)
RCP 45 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 221		11		100		99
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 221		06		205		204
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 221		03		416		415
RCP 85 1
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 508		26		100		97
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 508		13		205		202
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 508		06		416		413
RCP 85 with extreme damages 2
0 annual growth rate		$ 19390		$ 1939		100		100		80
1 annual growth rate		$ 39693		$ 3969		100		205		184
2 annual growth rate		$ 80685		$ 8068		100		416		396
1 FNCA (2018 Fig 292) 2 FNCA (2018 Fig 293)

	RCP 85		RCP 45		Damages avoided under RCP 45
Labor		$ 15500		$ 7440		48
Extreme temperature mortality		$ 14100		$ 8178		58
Coastal Property		$ 11800		$ 2596		22
Air Quality		$ 2600		$ 806		31
Roads		$ 2000		$ 1180		59
Electricity Supply and Demand		$ 900		$ 567		63
Inland Flooding		$ 800		$ 376		47
Urban Drainage		$ 600		$ 156		26
Rail		$ 600		$ 216		36
Water Quality		$ 500		$ 175		35
Coral Reef		$ 400		$ 048		12
West Nile Virus		$ 300		$ 141		47
Freshwater Fish		$ 300		$ 132		44
Winter Recreation		$ 200		$ 021		11
Bridges		$ 100		$ 048		48
Munic And Industrial Water Supply		$ 032		$ 010		33
Harmful Algal Blooms		$ 020		$ 009		45
Alaska Infrastructure		$ 017		$ 009		53
Shellfish		$ 023		$ 013		57
Agriculture		$ 001		$ 000		11
Aeroallergens		$ 000		$ 000		57
Wildfire		$ (011)		$ 014		-134
Total		$ 50783		$ 22137