Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and...

Wichita 2007 Review2008 Forecast

Janet Harrah, directorCenter for Economic Development and

Business Research, WSUOctober 2007

Wichita MSA EmploymentWichita MSA Employmentby Industry Sector, 2006by Industry Sector, 2006

Service Sectors 42%

Production Sectors 27%

Trade, Transportation &

Utilities 17%

Government 14%

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wichita MSA EarningsWichita MSA Earningsby Industry Sector, 2006by Industry Sector, 2006

Service Sectors 34%

Trade, Transportation

and Utilities 14%

Government 12%

Production Sectors 40%

Data Source: Kansas Department of Labor

Total Total Employment GrowthEmployment GrowthU.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA

(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)

-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001

Q1

2001

Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

United States

Wichita MSA

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University

ProductionProduction Employment Employment GrowthGrowth

U.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)

-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001

Q1

2001

Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

United States

Wichita MSA


TradeTrade Employment Growth Employment GrowthU.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA

(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001

Q1

2001

Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

United States

Wichita MSA


ServiceService Employment Employment GrowthGrowth


-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001

Q1

2001

Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

United States

Wichita MSA


GovernmentGovernment Employment Employment GrowthGrowth


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001

Q1

2001

Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

United States

Wichita MSA


WSU Consumer WSU Consumer Expectations IndexExpectations Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University

WSU Current Conditions WSU Current Conditions IndexIndex

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1


WSU Leading Economic WSU Leading Economic Indicators IndexIndicators Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1


Total All JobsTotal All JobsWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

230,000240,000

250,000260,000

270,000280,000

290,000300,000

310,000320,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Actual Estimate Forecast


Production SectorProduction SectorWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

50,00055,000

60,00065,000

70,00075,000

80,00085,000

90,00095,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Natural Resources, Mining & Natural Resources, Mining & ConstructionConstruction

Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

10,00011,000

12,00013,000

14,00015,000

16,00017,000

18,00019,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



ManufacturingManufacturingWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Durable Goods ManufacturingDurable Goods ManufacturingWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Non-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods ManufacturingManufacturing


6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Trade, Transportation & Trade, Transportation & UtilitiesUtilities


27,500

32,500

37,500

42,500

47,500

52,500

57,50019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Wholesale TradeWholesale TradeWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,50019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Retail TradeRetail TradeWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

32,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Taxable Retail SalesTaxable Retail Sales(billions $)(billions $)

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00

$10.0019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008


Data Source: KS Department of Revenue; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University

Inflation AdjustedInflation AdjustedTaxable Retail Sales (billions Taxable Retail Sales (billions

$)$)

$3.50$3.60$3.70$3.80$3.90$4.00$4.10$4.20$4.30$4.40$4.50

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008


Data Source: KS Department of Revenue; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University

Transportation & UtilitiesTransportation & UtilitiesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

6,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,4008,600

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Service SectorsService SectorsWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Information ServicesInformation ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Financial ServicesFinancial ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,50019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Professional & Business Professional & Business ServicesServices


16,500

18,500

20,500

22,500

24,500

26,500

28,500

30,500

32,50019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Education & Health Care Education & Health Care ServicesServices


25,00027,00029,00031,00033,00035,00037,00039,00041,00043,00045,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Leisure & Hospitality ServicesLeisure & Hospitality ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Other ServicesOther ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Government ServicesGovernment ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008



Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and...

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