Why you may have lost the trading game Before you start & establishing an edge

London Investor ShowWinning the Game & Developing an Edgewith Francis D Hunt aka ‘The Market Sniper’

Introduction & Session Plan

www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper

1. Part 1 - Introduction & Why you may want to listen [5 mins]

2. Part 2 :

I. ‘Pre-Game’ [7 mins]

II. ‘The Gift’ [5 mins]

III. ‘The Edge & The Sniper Principles’ [5 mins]

3. Part 3 – Pulling it all together & Going forward [7 mins]

Pt 1 - Who am I, why might you Listen?


Trading for 26 years across most markets

Originator of the Hunt Volatility Funnel [HVF] Set up & Theory

MBA in International Finance & Economics

Member of the STA

HVF Macro Themes?


So what?

Utilising HVF Theory – Landed Major investing & trading Themes, e.g.–

1. Euro Crisis, Mk I, Mk II & MK III

• EURCHF floor to fail in January 2015 – for a 30% FX Trade overnight

• EURCHF Nov 2009 Fail prediction for 1400 pips & preceding the 2010 Jan ‘Greek Crisis Mk I’

Eurozone Crisis & Later 2015 Floor fail


30% FX move in under an hour


Energy Sell off ?


• Bear Call on Oil for a substantial collapse August 2014 at $104

• Sell off Call on Standard Chartered, & related China slow down view

The Great Energy sell off - Brent 2014



GPX - 70% Market Cap decimationBEFORE


Gulf Sands petroleum (GPX)AFTER

• Textbook inverse HVF • Perfect set up with a windup within • 70% devaluation performed well • Entered short from 100 to exit at target of 27.75

HVF Macro Themes?


Utilising HVF Theory – Landed Major investing & trading Themes, e.g.–

1. Timing of Emerging FX sell off - TRY, ZAR, MXN, RUB, BRL

Pt 2 - I. ‘Pre-game’ is the game?


Most Traders Don’t believe their trading problems are ‘the way we think’ about Trading

More Market Analysis NOT solution -> trading inconsistency

Specific Beliefs, Attitudes & a Probability based mentality are required

‘Pre-game’ is the game?


A few Traders -> broken through ‘Threshold of Consistency’ -> It appears they take money almost at will from markets.

Others Trading success ‘seemingly’ -> So Close ‘at hand’..’Mirage’, ‘evaporates’ ‘Time & Time again’ -> Mental Enrichment.



95% of trading Errors, are errors of attitude:

The 4 horsemen of apocalypse

1. Lose Money [Fear/Pain]

2. Being Wrong [Ego/Pride]

3. Missing Out [Greed/Pain]

4. Leaving money on the table [Greed]



All are FEAR

But Fear – Physically causes you to Run or Freeze [Panic/Frenzy or immobilizing]

Mentally - Narrows thoughts & Focus around the Fear – other outcomes not seen

No Rationality till over. Afterwards we say - ‘I Knew it would do that’ or ‘why didn’t I think it then?’



The Trap.

Not understanding its attitude, makes inconsistency a subject of market behaviour.

Leads to < learning more about markets

Too much/conflicting/relevant/major/minor/unlimited = over informed market commentators & poor traders

Trying to eliminate risk by learning about every possible variable = ‘The Black hole of analysis”



Solution.

1. Fully accept & embrace game of risk & mentally reframe as Probability of outcomes

2. Attain Trust for yourself

3. Remove/reduce fear

4. Grow & expand, be open to be challenged on what you believe to be true about trading

5. Almost Impossible to do alone

Addicted to Random Rewards?


We are the Source of all the problems:

4. Trading creates a Dopamine, Endorphin & Excitement based addiction

5. Random rewards are addictive to the brain – Monkey experiment

6. Randomness is ‘Unstructured Freedom, without responsibility’ & we are predisposed to subtly submit to this.

7. Does NOT lead to = Structured Consistency

Pt 2 - 2. ‘The Gift’


Most Traders Stop placement - Do Damage > Good

One Key Moment – When Stop Placement can be ‘Tight’

Volatility dissipates slowly & returns with a Bang

Meaning you can track it ebbing away & plan for its return

Learn to trade the Squeeze


STAN Daily Inverse HVFBEFORE

• called at the end of 2013 when an inverse HVF was forming • called a short from 1550 to collapse to 1240


• made our target • set up another Inverse HVF in 2014

STAN Daily Inverse HVFAfter

Trend Continuation + Pattern + Volatility Squeeze = Traders Edge

Pt 2 - 2. ‘The Gift’


Continuation = Probability Friend

Reversals = Probability Enemy

Compulsion to Trade = No/low rules ‘Inconsistency & Lossess’


Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO)BEFORE


• After target, 40% left on first Inverse HVF in a new trend likely to over-perform. • set up over-performance bands to manage.

Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO)AFTER

40% was closed for a 1:9.48risk to reward ratio

on over-performance

Pt 2 - 3. ‘The Edge’ – Being the Sniper


A Sniper always has a Target

Either Target -> greed/fear based exit -> Decide before

But where Target placement?

Ans: The Market & patterns natural geometry tells you

Selectivity, Unique Specific Criteria, Efficiency, Patience



A Sniper always has a Target

Either Target ->

Greed/Fear based [Paralysis/Panic/Pain] exit ->

Decide before

Selectivity, Unique Specific Criteria, Efficiency, Patience



Trade Assessment dynamic:

Probability of Outcome [POUT] vs Potential Risk Reward Ratio [RRR]

• No ‘In trade’ decisions = Drunk Driver

Trend Continuation + Pattern + Volatility Squeeze = Traders Edge

Pt 2 - 3. ‘The Edge’ – Be Early!


Once POUT is high ->

Be Early

Prepare to ‘Pig out’ [within Money Management rules]

Utilise Self confirming Multiple Entry strategies


National Grid (NG)BEFORE

• identified on live trading day• break and entry strategy adopted

falling wedge enter just above 910 with tight stop loss target at 940


National Grid (NG)AFTER


EURNOK – High Pout low RRRBefore


EURNOK – High PoutAfter


• Short call 2014, captured as it was breaking at 1020 • First inverse HVF in new trend, anticipated over-performance • target 881 - strong overshoot just touched 800.

Rolls Royce (RR)BEFORE


Rolls Royce (RR)BEFORE

Other Gifts that provide an Edge!


Volume or OBV

Intra Market Analysis – Anatomy of a Crash

Gift of Volume/OBV Analysis


The Outakes & Conclusion


1. Situation –

Successes, but ‘give back’ periods, Fits & Starts progress. Need help, yet least prone to ask for it by nature – Individual Creative

2. Time to Compress Time Continuum and Attain a ‘Shift’



1. Solution - Support :

Become a specialist at 1 thing

Have a detailed complete strategy at all levels

Have a REAL edge

Low Emotion Trading

Follow my trades




Probability Outcome vs RRR approach

Know your Bias’s, through external assessment

Join a Private Online Community of ‘like minded’ – A Tribe

Learn Patience, Selectivity & Efficiency

Attain Precision, Relaxed Execution & Positive Outcomes




Develop your ‘self awareness’

Leave Impulse based responses behind

Mentorship

Share Common Detailed Plan

Claim ‘the shift’ in your trading

Products

www.TheMarketSniper.com

Product Includes Cost / ValueTrader Secrets Master Keys 1hr condensed break out principles.

Webinar ‘How to become part of the 9%’Free

Trader Value Pack 5+ hours of content on DVD and CDDVD 1 (90 min.)• Seven Mistakes Traders Make• Anatomy of a Crash• The Great Gift of Volume• 10 Bagger EURONOK• We Follow Up USDJPY• Summary Take Outs on 1 to 5

DVD 2 (190 min.)• Interview with a Trader DVD 3 (50 min.) FREE BONUS• ‘The Pregame is The Game’• A conversation with Dr De MartiniCD1• Audio files for use ‘on the go’

£127.00

‘Over the Shoulder’ Trading Day Live Location Day with Francis £147.00

HVF Draw Tool MT4 £457.00

©2015 – The Market Sniper

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Products


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Trading day November the 6th

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Contact Francis: [email protected]

Products & Services

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Why you may have lost the trading game Before you start & establishing an edge

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Transcript of Why you may have lost the trading game Before you start & establishing an edge